Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Parx Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Terry’s Thistledown Best Bet
Picks with the Professor’s MLB Play of the Day
Full YouTube Show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOvn7i9DEjQ&feature=youtu.be
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Prairie Meadows
Parx Racing Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Wegottaguy – He likes to go to the front and finished 3rd vs similar in last race doing that at 6-furlongs and now cuts back to 5-1/2-furlongs which will help – Switches to a high % jockey, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – World Regard – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and the trainer wins 25% of the races in maiden claiming events.
6 – Sweet Pari – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race and jockey Andy Hernandez is in the irons.
8 – Duck Ducky Goose – He will be closing at the end as he has done in the past finishing 3rd twice.
Alternate:
5 – Turtleneck Ted
1 – Gavilan
Race 2
6 – Rudy Rod – He comes in after competing at Aqueduct, drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has won four out of eight and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2 – Dont Break the Law – He won his last race at PARX Racing, switches to a high % winning jockey and drops in class today.
7 – Lawlessness – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, does well at today’s distance and likes PARX Racing.
1 – Catch My Vibe – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race only losing by a neck and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
4 – Scotch Rock’s
5 – Last Investment
Race 3
2 – Sizzling Roma – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last two races at Parx Racing and has the high % winning jockey Frankie Pennington who in last 7 days has this record (10 3-2-0).
9 – Cawaja Time – She won her last race at Parx Racing and has the highest last race speed rating.
3 – Captain Sam – She should improve while returning to dirt, drops in class today and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
4 – Boca Royalty – Hee likes the track winning five races and likes the distance.
Alternate:
7 – Spun d’Etat
5 – Anginetti
Race 4
5 – Raven Rocks – He switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-4-0).
6 – Alpha’s Candy Man – He drops in class today and has a couple of wins at Parx Racing.
3 – Perfect Revenge – He has a trainer who wins 17% of the time in the 2nd race off a layoff and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2 – Kikkerland – His early speed running style helps his chances and jockey Andy Hernandez is in the irons.
Alternate:
4 – Niangua
8 – E T’s Deuces Wild
Race 5
9 – La Regalada – She ran 2nd in three races in a row at Parx Racing, tried turf and didn’t take to it and she is now returning to dirt which she likes better – She has a high % winning trainer, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Turbie – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has a trainer who wins 25% of the time in maiden claiming races.
3 – Cup of Life – She has finished in the money in 80% of the races at PARX Racing and has a trainer/jockey combo who in last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0).
1 – Imagism – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has a trainer who wins 18% of the time in sprint races.
Alternate:
5 – Destination Speed
10 – Freedom Cheer
Race 6
3 – Call Me Jelly Roll – She won three races in a row, has taken an 8-month break but has two bullet workouts in a row.
1 – Lil Miss Hotshot – She won her last race at Penn National, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
6 – Zensational Dixie – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and the jockey in last 7 days has this record (8 4-0-0).
2 – Isabella Smile – She drops in class today Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (13 4-0-3).
Alternate:
9 – Kenai Cool
Race 7
4 – Bruno Barber Girl – She finished 2nd in her last race at Parx Racing, has a high % winning jockey who in last 7 days has this record (12 3-4-0) and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
1 – Lindalovesgold – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 27% of the time with 1st time starters, the Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters, and she has a trainer/jockey combo who in last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-1).
8 – Maggie – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – Stone in Love – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a good workout on July 27th.
Alternate:
9 – Pachelbel
2 – Desi’s Reward
Race 8
2 – Indirectly – He won his last race at Parx Racing and has trainer/jockey combo who in last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-1).
4 – Screen Saver – He drops in class today and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
7 – I’m Blaming You – He switches to a high % winning trainer, drops in class today where the trainer wins 50% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes and the trainer/jockey combo who in last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0).
10 – Crafty Jack– He ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
6 – Defibrillator
Race 9
8 – Miss Dillingham – She has won six races out of the last nine races finishing 3rd in the last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and trainer/jockey combo who in last 14 days has this record (13 4-4-1).
2 – Sweet Willemina – She won her last race at Parx Racing, drops off a win, the trainer who wins 83% of the time when dropping a horse off a win and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Flashing Diamond – She has won two races out of her last four races, winning her last race at Parx Racing and has a 5F workout on July-23rd.
9 – Love On Fire – She has won two races out of the last three starts and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Bucks Some
Race 10
9 – Fancy Scepter – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, switches to a high % jockey and has the highest last race speed rating (tie) – The trainer wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
10 – Jackie B Good – She finished 2nd vs similar in her last race, switches to a high % winning jockey, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and a jockey who in last 7 days has this record (12 3-4-0).
5 – Schnuer Will – She has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % jockey and drops in class today.
4 – Freedom’s Allure – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and the Trainer in last 14 days has won two races out of five starts.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 81 races, 61 won by speed, 39 w2w – PP: outside in bias with 1-3 penalized
4 – WEGOTTAGUY – if he goes off at 2-1 or higher, then something is wrong with the horse, 2/4f pace numbers say he has an enormous edge, should be EZ winner
2 – DUKE OF WELLS – first time starter that doesn’t have a lot to beat here, workouts are iffy but all the others had many chances to win and haven’t
3 – WORLD REGARD – has the top LP#s and should be among the leaders of the horses chasing the 4
1 – GAVILAN – lightly raced left arrow horse, rail sucks but EP should put him in the mix, just needs more endurance in 2nd start after a layoff
Race 2 – 7 Furlongs, 136 races, 100 won be speed, 45 w2w – PP: mostly fair, slight bonus 2/3, slight discount 4-7
2 – DONT BREAK THE LAW – won his last start despite a bad start and rough trip, better 6 ½f final time
6 – RUDY ROD – this drop for Linda Rice makes no sense to me, running at NYRA Alw 50k, was claimed for 40k, running for 32k in 7.5k claimer despite better 2/4f pace#s and better fractions? On paper he should live up to 6/5 ML odds and likely headed lower
7 – LAWLESSNESS – has a + LP advantage, should be better in 2nd start after a layoff and 2nd with trainer Scott Lake, 22% angle for a 16% trainer
5 – LAST INVESTMENT – BTN FAV last out, trainer Mario Dominguez rebounds at 30% next time out
Race 3 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 81 races, 61 won by speed, 39 w2w – PP: outside in bias with 1-3 penalized
9 – CAWAJA TIME – LS – Left Arrow horse with TLRSP#, ITM 6/1-3-1 in short sprints, better ATB last out
2 – SIZZLING ROMA – 3rd off the bench, better 2/4f numbers in last, 3 SP# increases
1 – THIS ROUND’S MINE – essentially all or nothing at Parx 10-3-0-1, resume says major improvement could be had in 2nd off the break
4 – BOCA ROYALTY – has a + LP edge and the frontrunners really don’t have a big advantage early in her
Race 4 – 7 Furlongs, 136 races, 100 won be speed, 45 w2w – PP: mostly fair, slight bonus 2/3, slight discount 4-7
2 – KIKKERLAND – has EP and showed better 2f#s last out, gets a weight break today
9 – TWO PRINCES – TLRSP# and better fractions last out, missed by just ¾ a length, better running 2nd ½ of race
3 – PERFECT REVENGE – is making his second start after a layoff, last 2nd race major upgrade, better early and late in late, easy Z
6 – ALPHA’S CANDY MAN – left arrow horse, PC type takes a drop in class had much better 2/4f#s in last with better fractions despite going 1f longer
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 193 races, 73 won by speed, 69 w2w – PP: rail discount, rest are close to fair
7 – TURBIE – was much better in career race #2 especially 2nd half of race, should challenge for lead
5 – DESTINATION SPEED – top 1st timer in my view, decent Parx works, tr Guadalupe Preciado hits at 24% with 1st timers
2 – ALWAJD – second best 1st timer, strong works at Monmouth getting ready
1 – IMAGISM
Race 6 – 7 Furlongs, 136 races, 100 won be speed, 45 w2w – PP: mostly fair, slight bonus 2/3, slight discount 4-7
3 – CALL ME JELLY ROLL – has a +EP edge at 4f, hasn’t run since Nov, bunch of bullets getting ready
2 – ISABELLA SMILE – makes 2nd start after a layoff, drops in class and was better ATB in first, record says she will be better in R2, top LP
1 – LIL MISS HOTSHOT – not the biggest fan or Penn shippers, but has run well at Parx, distance 15/1-2-5
6 – ZENSATIONAL DIXIE – was better in the first ½ of her last races, at times runs off the chart LP compared to the rest here
Race 7 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 81 races, 61 won by speed, 39 w2w – PP: outside in bias with 1-3 penalized
5 – STONE IN LOVE – the workout here are the most impressive to me
8 – MAGGIE – debut mid pace number should put her close to the front if not on the lead
9 – PACHELBEL – another 1st timer, like the works on July 6 and 13th
1 – LINDALOVESGOLD – tough call over the 4, but the 4 had 2 chances to get it done as hasn’t won yet
4 – BRUNO BARBER GIRL – better fractions at 5f vs 4 ½, but struggles late
Race 8 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 129 races, 77 won by speed, 40 w2w – PP: rail bonus all else fair
5 – BREITHORN – down multiple classes, flipping from turf to dirt, Parx 8/2-2-1 distance 4/1-1-1
10 – CRAFTY JACK – better ATB in his last, TLRSP#, slightly better times in last
7 – I’M BLAMING YOU – dropping multiple classes, new trainer hits 4/7 dropping 2+
9 – LOAD UP MOE – has ++ LP advantage but gets hasn’t been able to capitalize on it yet
Race 9 – 7 Furlongs, 136 races, 100 won be speed, 45 w2w – PP: mostly fair, slight bonus 2/3, slight discount 4-7
8 – MISS DILLINGHAM – 3rd off the break, Parx 17/8-2-2, Distance 2/2, Silvera/Ness winning at 32%
2 – SWEET WILLEMINA – PARX 11/8-1-2, dropping off a win, tr Scott Lake winner 5/6, TLRSP#, same fractions at 1m70y as 6f – 2 good works between races – Pennington rides here instead of 6
6 – FLASHING DIAMOND – another that like Parx 17/7-6-1, Pennington move is telling
9 – LOVE ON FIRE – left Arrow horse, could improve in her 2nd start after a layoff, tough call over the 7
Race 10 – 1 Mile Dirt – off turf – 81 races, 58 won by speed, 22 w2w – PP: slight rail penalty, fair 2-7, big drop off 8+
10 – JACKIE B GOOD – was better ATB in last, tie TLRSP#, switching to Ruben Silvera, tells me tr Daniel Velazquez thinks she is ready to win
9 – FANCY SCEPTER – has a 2f EP edge, 2 of 5 winners went w2w, has lead vs top pick by 2 ½f in stretch, a little more stamina today and maybe gets the job done
4 – FREEDOM’S ALLURE – 1st time starter with decent turf breeding, tied for 2nd best turf score for breeding in this group
6 – WHY NOT BABE
PARX Race Worksheet
