Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
Parx Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Picks with the Professor’s MLB Play of the Day
Professor’s YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5BsLFYsOSs&feature=youtu.be
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Colonial Downs
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Isabella Smile – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
6 – Anginetti – She drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Kenai Cool – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and the rail post is winning at a 19% clip.
3 – Zensational Dixie – She has done well in the past at PARX.
Alternate:
4 – West Horizen
Race 2
1 – Peach Perfect – She has finished in the money in five out of six career races, the rail post is winning at 19% clip, and she has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
2 – Pistol Liz Ablazen – She has finished in the money in three out of three career races, winning one of the starts and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Closet Shopper – She has the highest last race speed rating and a high % winning trainer.
4 – Sa Foradada – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
5 – Kisses for Emily
7 – Brooklyn Heights
Race 3
2 – Purrfect Mistress – She has won two races in a row, winning the last race at PARX Racing, and is going for a hat trick and has a good 4F workout on Aug-20.
3 – Will Lemon Dance – She drops in class today, likes PARX Racing and is one for one at today’s distance.
6 – Mountain Lilly – She has finished in the money in three out of five races, winning two of the starts, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
4 – Shesasuperfreak – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating, the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
5 – Shetalkstomuch
1 – Golden Eib Micrphn
Race 4
4 – Refund Rigler – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race on the turf, has a high % winning trainer and a bullet 4F workout on Aug-17, the 5th bullet workout in a row.
2 – Mizzen Man – He has the highest last race speed rating, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, he switches to a high % winning trainer and a high % winning jockey.
5 – Issuing Justice – He has finished in 3rd in his last two starts and the shorter distance should help.
8 – Junglherly Love – He is a first-time starter who has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
10 – Joe the Boss
Race 5
1 – Dana’s Big Day – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 7 winners from 8 starters and 1 stakes winner, and she has a high % winning trainer and a high % winning jockey.
6 – Girlfromouterspace – She finished 4th in her last race and has a trainer who wins 25% of the time when taking a horse from maiden races to maiden claiming races.
2 – My True Passion – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she may improve with blinkers added today.
5 – Road to Dreams – She has a high % winning trainer and high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Stormin’ Elvis
3 – Hawaiian Talent
Race 6
3 – In Equality – He likes PARX Racing and distance, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters. His jockey in last 7 days has this record (10 4-2-2).
2 – Cantstoprunning – He has early speed and may lead all the way as he has done in the past at today’s distance.
1 – Legal Gump – He won his last race, and the trainer wins 23% of the races with claim repeaters.
5 – Political – He drops in class today and finished 2nd in the race before last.
Alternate:
7 – American Fleet
Race 7
1 – Scoop Dawg – He is in top form winning his last race at Parx Racing at today’s distance by 9-lenghts, receiving the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and the rail post is winning at 18% clip.
7 – Lawlessness – His last race seemed to short of a distance, and he stretches out in this race which will be a benefit and he has performed well at Parx Racing.
8 – Scotch Rock’s – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has a good jockey.
5 – Go for the Kill – He won his last race at Parx Racing, drops in class today and the trainer wins 20% of the races in claiming races he has an entry in.
Alternate:
3 – Vero Sun
6 – Commissioner Dave
Race 8
11 – Gravitron – She has won three of her last five races, finishing 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and a high % winning jockey.
7 – Color Crush – She comes in from Colonial Downs where she finished a fast-closing 2nd as the favorite but her trainer wins 17% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
6 – Burano – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey, and her Dam has produced 1 Turf winner.
5 – Aegean Sea – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race and has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (10 4-2-2).
Race 9
4 – Flat Lucky – He won his last race at Parx Racing receiving the highest last race speed rating (tie), has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Sneakiness – He is always in the mix finishing in the money in six of the last six races, running 3rd in last race.
6 – Fran’s Worrier – He has won ten races out of twenty-four starts at Parx Racing and he won his last start at Monmouth Park.
8 – Jump Shot– He has won three out of the last four races running 2nd in his last race, has a jockey in last 7 days has this record (10 4-2-2) and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-17.
Alternate:
1 – Tio Wil
Race 10
4 – Birchmount Rd – Returning to a sprint should help as he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Raven Rocks – He finished 2nd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer who in last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-1) and a high % winning jockey.
1 – Buffalo Shuffle – He switches to a high % winning jockey who in last 7 days has this record (10 4-2-2) and the rail post is winning at 18% clip.
5 – Will Take Control – He has finished in the money in eight out of twelve races at Parx Racing, winning two races.
Alternate:
8 – E T’s Super Star
2 – Just a Thought
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 136 races, 82 won by speed, 41 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2+ fair
6 – ANGINETTI – has a + EP edge, may not look like it on paper, drops in class
5 – ISABELLA SMILE – TLRSP#, tied for a ++ LP with the 3, could be better in R3 off the bench
3 – ZENSATIONAL DIXIE – is the other with a ++ LP edge, gets a weight break
1 – KENAI COOL –, but gets the high win rate rail and was much better late in her last
Race 2 – 7 Furlongs, 150 races, 111 won by speed, 50 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias and 8+ bonus, 4-7 underperform
6 – CLOSET SHOPPER – has a ++ LP advantage, ran TLRSP#, trainer Jamie Ness wins 24% start after a layoff
2 – PISTOL LIZ ABLAZEN – ran better fractions in her last, so race was better than it looks on paper, a decent maintenance work between races
1 – PEACH PERFECT – never missed the board in 4 on a fast track 4/1-1-2 or distance 3/1-1-1
7 – BROOKLYN HEIGHTS – has a + edge at 2 and 4 furlongs, tough call over the 5,ITM 3 of his last 3 when he was 1st or 2nd at the half
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs, 201 races, 135 won by speed, 70 w2w – PP: rail penalty, small bonus 2/3, small penalty 4+
2 – PURRFECT MISTRESS – won her first race with ease after coming in from CD, OP and KEE, has a good work since
6 – MOUNTAIN LILLY – gets Paco Lopez who road 2 back, going w2w and should challenge for the lead according to our EP score
1 – GOLDEN EIB MICRPHN – Z pattern in last and better 2f and LP#s to boot, rail sucks
4 – SHESASUPERFREAK – is the other that should compete for the lead, concerning that she gave up a 7 length lead in the stretch last our, but 9/0-4-1 at Parx, gimmick horse
Race 4 – 5 Furlongs Turf, 4 races, 3 won by speed, 1 w2w – PP: all wins 4+
4 – REFUND RIGLER – just missed by a neck at this level, and first try at the distance/surface, bullet work since says he’ll be sharp today too
2 – MIZZEN MAN – track dropper from CD, KEE and FG, Parx works are OK, but by far top turf pedigree in the field
5 – ISSUING JUSTICE – not a fan of the Penn to Parx angle, not a fan of the horse rising from MCL 10k, but 8% winning trainer Danny Velazquez hits at 23% rising one class – absolute alpha angle for the trainer
1 – LT’S JACKNTHEBOX – looks like the best of the first timers to me
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 201 races, 135 won by speed, 70 w2w – PP: rail penalty, small bonus 2/3, small penalty 4+
6 – GIRLFROMOUTERSPACE – purse MSW dropper that ran evenly in debut, tr Louis Linder Jr hits at 25% on the Tom Carley drop
2 – MY TRUE PASSION – drops from MOC 40k, did show some improvement in that spot and could build on it in the second start after a layoff and another peg lower
5 – ROAD TO DREAMS – looks like the top 1st timer according to the oddsmaker, tr John Servis hits at 15% Debut MCL, tops of the trainers
1 – DANA’S BIG DAY – another 1st timer with OK works and doesn’t have a lot to beat in here, encouraging that top jock Frankie Pennington rides
Race 6 – 1 Mile, 90 races, 66 won by speed, 26 w2w – PP: slight rail discount, fair 2-7, 8+ penalized
2 – CANTSTOPRUNNING – has a +2f and ++4f pace edge, run the right fractions and it’s a w2w win
3 – IN EQUALITY – ran faster fractions last out compared to previous 1m70y race, decent workout between starts and could improve in R2 off the break
5 – POLITICAL – as already stated, ++ LP edge over the rest with the 4, moving down multiple classes
7 – AMERICAN FLEET –
Race 7 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 207 races, 149 won by speed, 50 w2w – PP: Small inside 3 bias, 2+ a little under par
1 – SCOOP DAWG – get the favorable rail, TLRSP and down in class combo, much better fractions last out and room to be better in 3rd after a layoff
5 – GO FOR THE KILL – left arrow horse that has a +EP edge and can close if necessary, significantly better first ½ mile of last
8 – SCOTCH ROCK’S – Z pattern in last, better 2f and LP #s in last, 3SP Increases
7 – LAWLESSNESS – tough call over the +LP 6, but the 6 usually bombs fresh like today, distance 4/0-0-3 and could be on spot in the 3rd off the bench
Race 8 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 9 races, 5 won by speed, 2 w2w – PP: none from rail, fair 2-7, 8+ bonus
11 – GRAVITRON – won her only Parx race, at the distance/surface by 7 ¾ lengths, never off the board on grass 7/1-4-2
9 – MADAME ROUGE – PARX grass, 4/2-0-1, showed more interest late in winner her last race
5 – AEGEAN SEA – could compete with the 11 for the lead, gets Paco Lopez, trying turf for the 1st time, decent off track record says she should enjoy the switch
7 – COLOR CRUSH
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs, 201 races, 135 won by speed, 70 w2w – PP: rail penalty, small bonus 2/3, small penalty 4+
4 – FLAT LUCKY – this race could get hot up front, tie TLRSP#, Pennington/Ness win at 34%, drops off the win, understanding the condition books race
6 – FRAN’S WORRIER – 10 wins in 24 Parx efforts, just 4 wins in 19 races elsewhere, 11 win in 23 at the distance, 3 wins in 20 at other lengths
8 – JUMP SHOT – tie TLRSP#, better fractions at 7f than 6f in precious race, strong work between races
1 – TIO WIL – tough call over the 10,
10 – JW’S THIRD MISCHIE
Race 10 – 7 Furlongs, 150 races, 111 won by speed, 50 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias and 8+ bonus, 4-7 underperform
4 – BIRCHMOUNT RD – short rest, last time he had a similar break won by 6 ½ lengths at 7f, like today
7 – RAVEN ROCKS – was NYRA dropper in last 2, was better ATB in last, short resume says 3rd off the break should be best
2 – JUST A THOUGHT – tie TLRSP, 2nd start with trainer Scott Lake, 22% angle for a 15% trainer, BTN FAV, Lake also hits at 22% next out
1 – BUFFALO SHUFFLE – has a +EP edge at 2/4f, gets the rail draw that wins at 18%
Parx Pace Worksheet
