Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Picks with the Professor’s MLB Play of the Day
Terry’s Colonial Downs Best Bet
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Finger Lakes
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Imperial Moon – She won her last race at Parx Racing, has the highest last race speed rating, the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – She has a trainer who wins 18% of the races with a claim repeater and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-1-0).
1 – Hey Dewzpots – She has won two races out of the last four races at Parx Racing, finishing a disappointing last race with a new jockey – She returns to regular jockey Ruben Silvera who won with her the last time he rode her and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Memphis Mafia – She has won two out of eight starts at Parx Racing, drops in class today and the distance is something she can handle.
2 – Congrats Answer – She likes the track finishing in the money 50% of the time, winning 19% of the races and likes distance finishing in the money 50% of the time, winning 30% of the races.
Alternate:
6 – Shirley Greene
3 – Starship Blanca
Race 2
6 – Ageless Endeavor – He has finished in the money in four out of five career races, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Muttley – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer in last 14 days has won two out of four races.
7 – Clear Cut – He drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 40% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-1).
2 – Deplane – He drops in class today and may be closing at the end to try and catch the leaders.
Alternate:
5 – Golden Wildcat
3 – Nicky Da Fox
Race 3
7 – Pylon – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race at Parx Racing and likes the track finishing in the money 44% of the time, winning 11% of the races.
4 – Him She Kisses – He drops in class today and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Indirectly – He has finished 2nd in three of his last four races and will be closing to try and catch the leaders.
6 – Spectacular Kid – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race at Parx Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
2 – E T’s Candy Man
3 – Don’t Recall
Race 4
2 – The Method – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating, and drops in class today.
5 – Jarlian – He has finished 2nd in his last two races at PARX Racing at today’s distance and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-1).
7 – Just a Thought – He ran against a tougher field in his last race and finished disappointing and now drops back in price – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Kith – He likes the track finishing in the money 33% of the time, winning 33% of the races and likes distance finishing in the money 50% of the time, winning 25% of the races.
Alternate:
3 – Relativlea
4 – Saponara
Race 5
4 – Debbie’s Surprise – She ran 2nd in her last race at Parx Racing after taking a nine-month break, has the highest last race speed rating and a trainer who wins 23% of the races when using 1st time Lasix.
5 – Pop the Clutch – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (7 2-2-2).
3 – Snappy Ride – She tried a mile in her last race and experienced minor trouble, running a disappointing race but may improve while returning to a sprint.
6 – Ruby Dooby Doo – She can improve while returning to a sprint and she has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-1-0).
Alternate:
7 – Bella Maria
1 – Figi’s Tale
Race 6
1 – Manuela – She won her last race at Gulfstream Park, has the highest last race speed rating, and drops in class today.
3 – Brody Slam – She won her last race at Parx Racing, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Relentless Ruby – She won her last race at PENN National and has a trainer who wins 23% of the races with claiming repeaters.
7 – The Biggest One – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and her early speed running style helps chances.
Alternate:
4 – Risen Change
6 – Iza One
Race 7
1 – Keeping the Peace – He has finished in the money in the last three races, finishing 2nd in his last race at Parx Racing and the distance is something that he can handle.
3 – Off the Meds – He won his last race at Parx Racing has the highest last race speed rating and a high % winning jockey.
7 – Silver Fury – He was beaten by four lengths in his last race, drops in class today and his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-1).
6 – Tomater Gator – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
2 – Lawn Boy
4 – No Fooling Dude
Race 8
4 – Taylor’s Belle – She finished 2nd vs similar in his last race at PARX Racing and regular rider Abner Adorno is in the irons.
2 – Party in the Sand – She has finished in the money in seven out of eighteen races at Parx Racing, winning three of the contests. She will be closing to try and win this race in this wide-open race.
3 – Abhaile – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Hola Princess – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-1).
Alternate:
6 – Angel Raphael
7 – Creedibility
Race 9
3 – Boom Boom Girl – She has finished in the money in the last six races, winning three of the races at Parx Racing and she has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Amplio Esquema – She won her last race at Parx Racing, has the highest last race speed rating, and a trainer who wins 19% of the time when shipping a horse in to run.
4 – In a Spin – She has won two races in a row and is going for a hat trick in today’s race.
7 – Gravitron – She has won two races out of the last three starts, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – A Ring Thing
1 – Solemn Oath
Race 10
1 – World Party She won her last race at Parx Racing, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – J D’s Vista – She has finished in the money in the last five races, winning the last race at Parx Racing.
3 – Will Lemon Dance – She has won two races in a row, has the highest last race speed rating, and drops in class today.
4 – Pumpernickel – She has won two out of the last four races at Parx Racing, has a high % winning trainer and a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Sea Pines
7 – Shetalkstomuch
Race 11
3 – Lionessofbrittany – She ran a disappointing last race after being bumped aat the start, drops in class today, should improve at the shorter distance and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Awesomenewyear – She finished 2nd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-1).
8 – Systemic Risk – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing and has shown that she can compete on the turf.
7 – Made to Hustle – She comes in from PENN National after winning her last race to try PARX Racing for the first time and cuts back in distance which will help this front running mare.
Rich’s Ranks
Using last week’s bias for Pace, full meet for Post Position
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs, 8 races, 7 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: rail penalty, little bonus 2/3, 4+ slight penalty
4 – IMPERIAL MOON – runs her best with and uncontested lead, likely to get that here with a 1 ½-2 length EP advantage
5 – MEMPHIS MAFIA – is a pressure horse that should ride co-pilot and capitalize if the 4 falters
2 – CONGRATS ANSWER – has the best last run in the group and improved ATB on her last, chance to move forward in her 3rd off the break
1 – HEY DEWZPOTS – can win from the front or off the pace, drops back to a level where she recently won 2 of 3
Race 2 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 3 races, 2 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP: rail bonus, 2-7 fair, slight penalty 8+
5 – GOLDEN WILDCAT – tr Ernesto Padilla-Preciado is killing it w/ 1 time starters 6/13 & debut MCL 4/9
6 – AGELESS ENDEAVOR – probably runs co-pilot to the pacesetter but has more LP, tr John Servis clicking at 32% second time Lasix
4 – MUTTLEY – probably breaks to the lead, put up better pace# ATB at 6 ½ f v 6, can he hang on late?
7 – CLEAR CUT – didn’t miss by much at this level 3 back but tried to move up the ladder in next 2, might be the kind that needs the lead but might struggle to get it
Race 3 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 3 races, 2 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP: rail bonus, 2-7 fair, slight penalty 8+
7 – PYLON – better early fractions last out with better 2/4f pace#s, looking for him to be on/near the lead all the way around the track
2 – E T’S CANDY MAN – better effort at the end of his last outing, 3rd off the sidelines should be the best of the 3-race cycle
4 – HIM SHE KISSES – should get a good trip, mid-pack, sometimes packs a big pop at the end of the race.
1 – BIZZY GILLESPIE – been off since May 30, a pair of fast workouts on paper since, rides 20% winning rail at a distance 3/2-0-0
Race 4 – 1 Mile, 1 race, w2w – PP: slight rail penalty, 2-7 fair, 8+ big penalty
3 – RELATIVLEA – the resume says that when he starts to trend north with his sp#s, it continues for 3 races, this will be race 3
7 – JUST A THOUGHT – should be a peak performer in his third after a layoff, smoked the field in his last 3rd effort off the bench
5 – JARLIAN – top LP horse in the field, showed more in the first ½ mile of his last race, knocking at the distance’s door 4/0-3-0
4 – SAPONARA – most likely going to be a price, but has a decided EP edge over the rest, going long for the 1st time should accentuate the EP edge, if he gets out 2-3-4 lengths, his confidence grows and it could carry him home w2w
Race 5 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 3 races, 2 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP: rail bonus, 2-7 fair, slight penalty 8+
This looks like an all button race
4 – DEBBIE’S SURPRISE – moving up in class from MCL 10k, not my favorite thing, but did flash some early pace in his last, gets 1st time Lasix in 3rd career start
7 – BELLA MARIA – should be on the front, only one career start, was decently bet in debut
3 – SNAPPY RIDE – cuts back in distance and her EP#s in sprints put her near the front of the pack, but with 7 races and consistent #s, there isn’t a lot of upside here, maybe catching a 5 pound weigh break helps
1 – FIGI’S TALE – a first time starter that really doesn’t have a lot to beat. An OK race could get it done.
Race 6 – 1 Mile, 1 race, w2w – PP: slight rail penalty, 2-7 fair, 8+ big penalty
7 – THE BIGGEST ONE – pace#s suggest she’ll might be 2+ lengths ahead of the pack at the half, she won by 7 lengths the last time she has a 2 length lead at the half
1 – MANUELA – GP dropper that is 2 for 2 at the distance and catching a 2 pound weight break
3 – BRODY SLAM – won her last race by 6 ¼ lengths with substantially better 2/4f #s, peak SP# number but the good news is the last time she peaked, she followed it up with better fractions and same SP#
5 – RELENTLESS RUBY – went w2w at Penn in her last, usually not a fan of Penn to Parx but Parx 6/1-0-2 and I like the Lou times two duo of Luis Ocasio and Louis Linder, +1.04 ROI together
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs, 8 races, 7 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: rail penalty, little bonus 2/3, 4+ slight penalty
3 – OFF THE MEDS – TLRSP#, Parx 14/3-3-3 closer but nor sure if 6f is too short, probably more of a distance horse
1 – KEEPING THE PEACE – ran a little faster 6 ½f time last out, should be close to the pace and has some of the best LP
2 – LAWN BOY – is running at the lowest level in a long time, tr Ralph Riviezzo hit 4/16 down multiple classes, fractions at 6 1/2f same as 5 1/2f
4 – NO FOOLING DUDE – lone E horse in the field with the best EP#s, he could go all the way on the lead with the right fractions
Race 8 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 5 races, 100% won by speed, 2 w2w -PP: Inside 3 advantage, 4-7 a little underperform, 8+ fair
3 – ABHAILE – was better early, better late, Z pattern? TLRSP#, Parx 18-4-2-1, 0-5 elsewhere – upgrades to jy Sillvestre Gonzalez – who rode in last win w2w by 9 ¾ lengths
6 – ANGEL RAPHAEL – is the EP advantage horse, if he can get the lead, a 10 pound weight break could help a lot – however tr Pedro Mercedes 0-35, jy Edwin Melendez 0-31
4 – TAYLOR’S BELLE – beat some of these in her last race, but the effort was uninspiring
2 – PARTY IN THE SAND – jy Adrew Wolfsont and tr Guadalupe Guerrero win at 29% and +0.21 ROI, in this up for grabs race, need to take plus ROIs
Race 9 – 1 1/16 Mile Turf, 1 race, won by speed, (only 6 for the year 4 won off the pace) -PP: outside in bias
2 – AMPLIO ESQUEMA – never missed the board at the distance 7/2-3-2, track dropper from Laurel, 3rd off a layoff, better 2/4f EP#s last out
4 – IN A SPIN – LRL and GP track dropper, won 3 of 4 on turf, top grass pedigree, should improve in 2nd race off the bench
1 – SOLEMN OATH – ran better times at 1m70 on grass in her last than 7f on dirt in previous start
7 – GRAVITRON – has the edge out of the gate, usually breaks sharply, has the top EP, Turf 5/0-3-2, tr Jamie Ness 31% going sprint to route
Race 10 – 1 Mile, 1 race, w2w – PP: slight rail penalty, 2-7 fair, 8+ big penalty
1 – WORLD PARTY – easy win last out, distance 6/1-3-1, 1 for 1 at Parx, looking for more in race 2 off the bench
3 – WILL LEMON DANCE – winner of 2 in a row after going 0-5 to start career was better ATB in first race off the sidelines, could be better in R2 off the bench
5 – J D’S VISTA – was better in the 2nd half of her last effort, Parx 2/1-1-0
7 – SHETALKSTOMUCH – better ATB in her last, faster fractions in last, trending in the right direction
Race 11 – 5 Furlongs Turf, 2 races, both won by speed, 0 w2w – PP: all wins 4+
4 – AWESOMENEWYEAR – is knocking on the door at Parx on turf 2/0-2-0, big time 4f pace# improvement in last, the turn number is big important in sprints
3 – LIONESSOFBRITTANY – should be the class of the field, track dropper from Belmont, but was off for more than a year, lowest level of her career, has EP gets first Lasix, by drop to OCLM and in for a tag? Seems really suspicious to me
8 – SYSTEMIC RISK – better numbers in the first half mile of her last race, solid at the distance 8/0-4-2, one of the best turf pedigree scores in the field
9 – ONE TOUGH ROSE – been off for more than a year, has a lot of back-speed, decent works and her off dirt record suggest she might take to turf in her first grass go.
