Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Terry’s Finger Lakes Park Best Bet
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Finger Lakes
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Analysis
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Current Hope – He ran 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Last Investment – He switches to a high% trainer who wins 36% of the time in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
4 – Kikkerland – He drops in class today, may improve at the shorter distance and the jockey in last 7 days has this record (8 2-0-0).
5 – Call Me G Q – The trainer wins 37% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and the trainer /jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0).
Alternate:
1 – I Saw It All
Race 2
5 – Petulant Delight – The trainer wins 36% of the time in the 1st race after claiming a horse and Petulant Delight may improve at the shorter distance.
4 – Causeididitmyway – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, has a high % winning trainer and the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Anzio Beach – He drops in class today.
7 – Boat Over the Hill – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
Alternate:
6 – Daytime Lover
3 – Kowboy Karma
Race 3
6 – Paper Mansion – She switches to a high% trainer who wins 32% of the time in the 1st race after claiming a horse the shorter distance should help.
7 – Skerrett – She has a high % winning jockey, and a good workout May 30th.
4 – Mountain Lilly – She has a high % trainer, the highest last race speed rating, may improve at the shorter distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – God Still Loves Me – She has a trainer who wins 18% of races when going from a sprint-route-sprint, can improve while returning to a sprint and has a good 4F workout on Jun-04.
Race 4
4 – Macrelletta – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race receiving the highest last race speed rating (tie) and the trainer wins 25% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
3 – Charlys Wild Angel – She finished 2nd in her last two races.
6 – Diane’s Comet – She has a high % winning trainer and was she was heavily bet in debut.
1 – Conduttore- Ran 2nd her last race.
Race 5
7 – Subsidiary – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, should improve at the shorter distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Towson – She ran 2nd in her last race at PARX Racing and has high % winning trainer.
5 – Londonderry – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating, has a high % winning trainer and a trainer /jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0).
6 – Bella G – She ran 4th in her last race at PARX Racing after racing very wide and the trainer wins 19% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
Alternate:
3 – Galileo’s Affair
1 – Lil Tater
Race 6
5 – Bitterswt Symphony – She has finished in the money in her last four races, running 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in her last race and she has the highest last race speed rating – She has a high % winning Jockey and trainer wins 20% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
1 – Super Surge – She switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the starts the 1st race after claiming a horse.
3 – Shewearsthepants –She drops in class today and her trainer wins 26% of Maiden Claiming races he enters a horse in.
2 – Santafe Express – She was bumped in her last race and did not finish well, drops in class today and should improve while returning to dirt as her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
8 – Snappy Ride
7 – Angelofthegalaxy
Race 7
4 – Slew Tang Clan – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Fearless Fly –He broke bad in his last race – The trainer wins 19% of claiming races he enters horses in.
1 – Charlies Safari – The rail post is winning at a 20% clip and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Commissioner Dave – He broke bad in his last race, and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
7 – Greyzer
5 – Dougie
Race 8
5 – Gambit’s Girl – She has finished in the money in four out of the last five races, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Southern Cents – She has finished in the money in the last five races, has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
2 – Knock Out Kid – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race earning the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and may improve at the shorter distance.
3 – Anginetti – She has a high % winning trainer and drops in class today.
Alternate:
1 – Cawaja Time
8 – Splendor Gal
Race 9
15 – Margin of Air– Drop- in class.
9 – Indoctrinate – He was beaten only 1-1/4 lengths vs similar (on Dirt) in last start and the trainer wins 23% in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.
8 – A Gray for Carolyn – Won April 27th at Parx Racing.
5 – Catty’s Uncle – Finished in the money two out of three last races.
Race 10
7 – Easy Day – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 83% of the races when he drops a horse off a win and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – Little Harbour – He won in his last race at PARX Racing.
3 – Thousand Percent – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race at PARX Racing.
6 – Geebert – His last win was at today’s distance – The trainer /jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-1).
Alternate:
4 – Appealing Future
2 – Big City Bob
Race 11
8 – She’s Got Game – She finished 3rd in her last race receiving the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Princess Kaira – She has won two races in a row going for a hat trick.
10 – Hit a Homer Honey – She finished 3rd in her last race at PARX Racing but has won one out of four starts.
6 – Halligirl– She has a high % winning trainer. Her Best Dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 furlongs, 150 races, 98 won by speed, 48 w2w – PP: 11 won from rail, about ½ of what it should be, 2+ roughly fair
Evenly matched race
3 -LAST INVESTMENT – 1st off the claim for tr Mario Dominguez, a 37% winner in 60 races with +0.68 ROI, drop off the claim, winner 4/6 but not really a drop, claimed for 8K today’s purse 21k
5 – CALL ME G Q – 1st off the claim for tr Penny Pearce, a 24% winner, some improved LP in last and is the only Pressure horse in a field of Es,
2 – E T’S DEUCES WILD – Top EP #s in the group at a distance that supports speed, not a fan of the Penn to Parx move, but is the other with the top past Parx performances
4 – KIKKERLAND
Race 2 – 7 Furlongs, 107 races, 77 won by speed, 35 w2w – PP: rail, 4-7 fair, 2/3 best, slight discount 8+
4 – CAUSEIDIDITMYWAY – 3rd start off the break, tr Juan Guerrero wins, better 6f fractions at 1m than 6 ½f in previous start
1 – ANZIO BEACH – drops in class to a level that should be a better fit, was claimed at that price last time he ran, 3rd by 1 ¼ lengths
5 – PETULANT DELIGHT – has the top EP#s by a little bit, but there is that trainer Mario Domingues off the claim hitting at 37%, by far best PARX record 29/8-6-4 for $165k
3 – KOWBOY KARMA – has the biggest advantage in the field with his LP#s, superior to all others, but the trainer record, whew 68/0-2-5, gamblers’ fallacy extraordinaire, she’s do
Race 3 – 6 furlongs, 150 races, 98 won by speed, 48 w2w – PP: 11 won from rail, about ½ of what it should be, 2+ roughly fair
Another evenly matched race
4 – MOUNTAIN LILLY – last race looks like regression based on speed#, but 4f time was a little faster at 7f versus win at 5 ½ furlongs in previous start, cutting back in distance should help
7 – SKERRETT – her LP interest perked up in last race, has early wheels and decent work, interesting that Pennington is not on #6 again
6 – PAPER MANSION – tr Jamie Ness decides to go with weight break and jy Jeiron Barbosa over Pennington who rode last three, Ness hits at 32% off the claim, horse did run a tad quicker last out at 6 1/2f compared to 6f in previous race
2 – SWIFT FACTOR –major signs of life in her last with much better # ATB, solid workout since
Race 4 – 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf, 4 races 50/50, 2 w2w – PP: inside 3 dominate winning 3 of 4
6 – DIANE’S COMET – 2nd career race, 1st try on grass, was 2-1 favorite in debut, gets Paco Lopez and tied for biggest drop in class
4 – MACRELLETTA – TLRSP# as BTN favorite, tr Darien Rodriguez rebounds at 25%, track dropper from Monmouth, TB and Southern California circuit
9 – DON’T B RIDICULOUS – going with lightly races shipper from TB, only a pair so far, improved in R2 from R1 and gets top jock Silvestre Gonzalez
1 – CONDUTTORE
Race 5 – 1 1/16 Miles, 30 races, 18 won by speed 10 w2w -PP: rail o-fer, 2/3 win at about ½ of what they should, outside in 4+
2 – TOWSON – showed early race improvement in her last, cutting back 1/16 could help
5 – LONDONDERRY – has the best LP#s in the group, won last w TLRSP but moved up in class, do like Lou times 2, Luis Ocasio and Louis Linder, Jr combo hits at 32% with +2.19 ROI
7 – SUBSIDIARY – is usually around at the end, PARX 9/2-2-1
1 – LIL TATER – is the only class dropper in the field, but the rail is 0-30, should be better in 2nd off the layoff, but did I mention rail is 0-31?
Race 6 – 6 furlongs, 150 races, 98 won by speed, 48 w2w – PP: 11 won from rail, about ½ of what it should be, 2+ roughly fair
5 – BITTERSWT SYMPHONY – just missed showing some early speed, TLRSP#, gets Paco Lopez, Parx 2/0-1-1
2 – SANTAFE EXPRESS – is one of the biggest droppers in the field, flipping from turf to dirt, gets a weight break – top EP/LP figures
1 – SUPER SURGE – track dropper from Keeneland and Turfway Park, 1st off the claim for trainer Jamie Ness, wins at 32%, tough rail draw, a couple of decent works since
3 – SHEWEARSTHEPANTS – another big class dropper, gets a weight break, was better ATB in her last race
Race 7 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 155 races, 107 won by speed, 36 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 8+ >4-7
1 – CHARLIES SAFARI – rides the high win rate rail, last race was better than it looks at he ran better times at 1m 70y than he did in previous 1m70y go
4 – SLEW TANG CLAN – usually rallies hard and produced his top late pace# in last 10 last out. Denzel at Parx 11/0-2-4
6 – FEARLESS FLY – lackluster effort in last, the last time he ran a dull effort, followed it up with a 2nd by 3/4s a length
2 – JACKS AMERICAN PIE – likes to get to the lead and is in a field of closers, could get away with ez fraction
Race 8 – 6 furlongs, 150 races, 98 won by speed, 48 w2w – PP: 11 won from rail, about ½ of what it should be, 2+ roughly fair
2 – KNOCK OUT KID – just missed in her last versus some of these, ran better fractions in last at 6 1/2f vs 6f
5 – GAMBIT’S GIRL – has a strong EP edge over the rest of the field, PARX 22/5-4-3, but trainer 0-25 with horses coming back after 90+ days off
1 – CAWAJA TIME – biggest drop in class, again tough draw on the rail, was better in the first half mile of her last race
6 – SOUTHERN CENTS
Race 9 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf, just 1 race
15 – MARGIN OF AIR – make 2nd pick if he scratches in, coming out of 100k non graded stakes, enormous 2/4f improvement in last
5 – CATTY’S UNCLE
9 – INDOCTRINATE – 2nd start with tr Phillp Aristone, 25% winner, some of the better turf#s in the field
3 – AUSTIN WHYLIE
Race 10 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 98 races, 61 won by speed, 30 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, small penalty 2/3, 4+ fair
7 – EASY DAY – won two in a row, major improvement ATB in his last, dropping off the win winner 5/6 for trainer Scott Lake
5 – LITTLE HARBOUR – came off the bench to win by 2 ¼ lengths at 5 ½f, extra 1/2f helps here
6 – GEEBERT – resume says he is following a similar pattern solid run after a layoff, a bit of regression in race 2 after a layoff, a pop in performance should come in round three, like today
4 – APPEALING FUTURE – coming off the bench, Eddie C angle, Bullet, maintenance and then to the track
Race 11 – 7 Furlongs, 107 races, 77 won by speed, 35 w2w – PP: rail, 4-7 fair, 2/3 best, slight discount 8+
8 – SHE’S GOT GAME – just missed by ½ lengths in last, drops in class, TLRSP#, Jamie Ness on fire, 19/7-6-1
5 – PRINCESS KAIRA – better pace#s across the board in her last, dropping off the claim, normally suspicious but claimed for 10k, purse 20k today
4 – BROAD JUMPER – finished 2nd versus some of this in last, ran better fractions in last
10 – HIT A HOMER HONEY
