Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Parx Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Terry’s Assiniboia Downs Best Bet
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Fair Meadows Tulsa
Parc Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
8 – Squan’s Kingdom – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
7 – Blunt Force – She tried turf for the second time was soundly beaten and returns to dirt where she likes it better, drops in class today and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (13 4-0-3).
2 – Fine One Won – She won her last race at Parx Racing and has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Penance – She has a High % trainer and Switches to a high % jockey
Alternate:
1 – Glowing Star
Race 2
3 – The Right Path – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and drops in class today, so I think he is on The Right Path.
5 – Crafty Jack – His trainer wins 22% of the time in the 2nd start of a horse with this trainer and trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-1).
4 – Wild Union – He returns to dirt after running a disappointing finish on the turf, drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and trainer wins 21% of the races when taking a horse from a route to sprint.
8 – Go Huskies – He won his last race at Parx Racing getting the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
6 – The Big Bluff
7 – Defibrillator
Race 3
7 – It’s So Easy – She has won four races at Parx Racing getting the highest last race speed rating, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a good 4F workout Jun-15.
1 – Blue Paynt – She has finished in the money in nine out of her last ten races winning her last race at Parx Racing and the rail post is winning at 19% clip.
5 – Sweet Willemina – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and her trainer /jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-1).
6 – Lean On E – She has done well at PARX Racing finishing in the money 66% of the time, winning 28% of the races – She has a high % trainer and switches to a high % jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Tilsa
Race 4
8 – Irish Jumper – She has finished in the money in her last four races winning two of those races at PARX Racing and she finished 3rd vs similar in the last race.
6 – Magnetique – She has a trainer /jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (12 5-3-2) and she is stretching out to 1-1/6 Mile which should help.
9 – Sheknowsthedrill- She likes the distance finishing in the money 60% of the time, winning 20% of the races and has a good trainer and jockey.
4 – Valerie First – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and is eligible to improve in 2nd start since layoff.
Race 5
5 – Victory Is Ours – He has a lot of early speed, finishing 2nd in his last three races, fading at the end of the last race at 1-mile-70 yards and cuts back to 1-mile which I think is the key to him winning this race – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 100% of the races in the 3rd race off a layoff.
3 – Our Freedom – He won his last race at Laurel Park and at today’s distance – He switches to a high % winning trainer and has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Singinthruthestorm– He has finished in the money in two of his last three races, winning one and jockey Silvestre Gonzalez is again in the irons who appears to know how to ride him as he ridden him to a 2nd and a 1st.
2 – The Method – He finished 3rd in last race for the fifth race in a row and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
4 – Austin Whylie
7 – Liberty Runner
Race 6
4 – Hey It’s Tati – She has early speed and has finished in the money in three out of four races at today’s distance and gets a new jockey which may help.
3 – New Jersey – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she does well at PARX Racing finishing in the money in over 50% of her races.
6 – Imperial Moon – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race at PARX Racing and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
2 – Lulinda’s Heart – She drops in class today and has a couple of decent workouts.
Alternate:
5 – My Masterpiece
7 – Almost Evil
Race 7
4 – Smokey White – He finished 3rd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (17 5-2-2).
8 – Juggler – He arrived from Belmont Park after he finished 3rd in his last race and he is having a good year finishing in the money in three out of five starts, winning one of the races.
1 – Iconic Legacy – He won his last race at PARX Racing; the rail post is winning at 20% clip, and he has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Downtownchalybrown – He broke slowing in his last race and finished 10th at PENN National and returns to PARX Racing where he has finished in the money in four out of five races, winning one of the races.
Alternate:
2 – Celtic Heart
Race 8
4 – Chub Wagon – She has done nothing but win races, ten out of eleven starts – She switches to a high % winning jockey and has a bullet workout on 15Jun Parx 4f ft :45.4 Hg1/43.
10 – Castilleja – She is a closer and with all the early speed the race it may set up for her to win – She switches to a high % winning jockey and has two bullet workouts in a row.
1 – Disco Ebo – She is trying the turf for the first time; her dam has produced 3 Turf winners and she has a trainer / jockey combo who in the last 14 days who has won three races out of five starts (5 3-0-0).
8 – Hipnotizada – She has a lot of speed and goes to the front and winning two races out of four starts using that method – Her breeding suggests she will like the grass as the Dam has produced 2 Turf winners.
Alternate:
3 – Sidney Sue
Race 9
8 – Peach Perfect – She has finished in the money in all five career races, winning one of the starts and running 2nd in her last race – She has a trainer / jockey combo who in the last 14 days has won two races out of four starts (4 2-0-0).
4 – Marianna Queen – She can either run on top or come from behind to win a race, winning her last two races using both methods and earning the highest last race speed rating -She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Aegean Sea – She has early speed which could help, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a good 4F workout onJun-21.
3 – Catti La Belle – She figures to improve while returning to Dirt and her best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed
Race 10
3 – Loose Ends – He has never finished out of the money during his career, winning his last race at Delaware Park, has high % winning trainer and Jockey.
6 – Vine Jet – He has won three out of his last four races and his breeding suggests he will like the grass as the Dam has produced 1 Turf winner.
8 – Twisted Ride – He finished in the money in all four of his career races winning two of the starts and has a high % winning Jockey.
10 – Crisper – He won his first race back after a 6-month break and has high % winning jockey Kendrick Carmouche who returns to try and win a second race in a row.
Alternate:
2 – Radieux
Race 11-Female
4 – Smooth as Glass – She finished in the money in her last six races at Tampa Bay Downs, winning two and receiving the highest last race speed rating – She has a trainer / jockey combo who in the last 14 days has won two races out of three starts (3 2-0-0).
3 – Boca Royalty – She closed to finished 2nd in last her last race at PARX Racing only losing by a neck at 6-furlongs and now stretches out to 7-furlongs which should help, and she has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Cawaja Time – She drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Oceano Rosso – She drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 22% of the races when he has a horse who makes a second start under his care.
Alternate:
9 – I’m a Coco Pebbles
10 – Holiday Raid
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile, 64 races, 42 won by speed, 19 w2w – PP: small 1-3 penalty, 4-7 bonus, 8+ win at half the rate it should
7 – BLUNT FORCE – drops in class to her lowest level since April, she ran better in the first half of the last race with faster fractions on turf than dirt
8 – SQUAN’S KINGDOM – missed as the favorite in last despite better #s ATB, but they weren’t peak numbers, so she has room to be better today – downgraded from top spot because of post.
2 – FINE ONE WON – won her last with TLRSP# with a time that fits, she has 4 wins in 1 mile races, no wins in 22 at any other length
6 – PENANCE
Race 2 – 7 Furlongs, 116 races, 84 won by speed, 38 w2w – small inside 3 edge, small 4+ penalty
5 – CRAFTY JACK – probably has the most room for improvement, 2nd off the break and 2nd start for tr Scott Lake, 23% angle versus 16 overall, much better early form in last
8 – GO HUSKIES – won his last at the distance with peak numbers across the board, same race equals the same result, but he regressed after previous peak #
3 – THE RIGHT PATH – dipping in class after posting slightly better fraction in his last, most consistent at the distance 9/1-3-2, just doesn’t win
6 – THE BIG BLUFF – to toss out or not to toss out his last race? Wide as the favorite and whiffed badly, 3rd start after a layoff, solid back class and jockey switch are reasons for hope, but the last time he blew a tire, it took 4 races to recover
Race 3 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 166 races, 115 won by speed, 38 w2w -PP: rail edge, slight advantage 2/3 and 8+, small underperformance 4-7
This is a really good race for OC $16k
7 – IT’S SO EASY – has a very similar workout pattern as she did the last time she got some rest, she won that return at the same distance and level
5 – SWEET WILLEMINA – 10 races at Parx, 7 wins, a second and 2 thirds, drops back in class to a level that fits, but not the strongest at the distance
1 – BLUE PAYNT – Parx, 10 races, 5 wins 5 seconds, stronger early fractions in last, the move to the 19% winning rail helps
9 – SUGAR STREAK
Race 4 – 1 1/16 Miles, 33 races, 20 won by speed, 12 w2w – PP: zero from rail, just 3 from 2/3, outside in for the rest
7 – TIME TO TWO STEP – Paco gets off the 8 that was the even money favorite at this level in his last and one he rode for a win 3 back for a GP track dropper that he rode 10 races ago, the workouts have been terrible, but her works are usually bad but the speed numbers at consistently the highest in the field
8 – IRISH JUMPER – maybe Paco made the wrong decision here as she won two of her last thee races
1 – CONNOISSEUR – rail sucks, but ITM 10/2-3-3 at the distance, held her speed longer last time and is likely to be on the lead at the Quarter Pole
2 – I’LL MAKE IT COACH
Race 5 – 1 Mile, 64 races, 42 won by speed, 19 w2w – PP: small 1-3 penalty, 4-7 bonus, 8+ win at half the rate it should
3 – OUR FREEDOM – Laurel Park dropper, 1st start with tr Jordan Bullock, winner on 5/11, lone win is at the distance with powerful LP# that’s off the chart for this group
6 – SINGINTHRUTHESTORM – should challenge for the lead and goes back to Silvestre Gonzalez who rode for a 2nd and win in his first two at Parx after arriving from GP
5 – VICTORY IS OURS – is ML favorite, could be lone speed and loose on the front, but how do put a horse that’s only win came by DQ and has not been within 5 ½ lengths of the winner on top?
4 – AUSTIN WHYLIE – there isn’t really anything else left to beat in here
Race 6 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 108 races, 67 won by speed, 32 w2w – PP: rail bias, all else fair
6 – IMPERIAL MOON – as much as I don’t want another very beatable ML favorite on top, but was better ATB in her last and held her speed longer, not much more to carry to finish line
2 – LULINDA’S HEART – drops in class after almost 3 months in the barn, some good works and one of her two wins came off the bench
3 – NEW JERSEY – is another that is coming off the bench, a bunch of OK works getting ready, also runs OK off the bench
4 – HEY IT’S TATI – show early improvement and late pace in her last, but fractions were only a little faster at 5 ½ furlongs compared to 7 furlongs
Race 7 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 108 races, 67 won by speed, 32 w2w – PP: rail bias, all else fair
3 – DOWNTOWNCHALYBROWN – drops from 100k NGSTK, much faster factions in last, back to a level that fits and should be on the lead
4 – SMOKEY WHITE – TLRSP# s and similar fractions at 1m70y compared to 6 ½ furlongs, cut back helps here
8 – JUGGLER – is a track dropper from NYRA, been banking on these, been working at PARX and working well
2 – CELTIC HEART
Race 8 – 5 Furlongs Turf, just 1 race
4 – CHUB WAGON – the only question is can she handle turf, aside from that 11/10-1-0
5 – HEY MAMALUKE – probably chases the top pick all the way around the track, 6/3-1-0 on an off track suggests she do OK on turf
10 – CASTILLEJA – look at the Laurel Park turf races, distance 4/0-3-0, two bullet works getting ready, Carol Cedeno’s only mount, does she come for a horse that doesn’t have a chance?
1 – DISCO EBO – been facing the toughest competition, most of this field are a step down in comp, usually breaks sharply, has EP, off track 3/1-2-0, means she should like grass
Race 9 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 166 races, 115 won by speed, 38 w2w -PP: rail edge, slight advantage 2/3 and 8+, small underperformance 4-7
6 – AEGEAN SEA – is going to have the lead at 6f, she won’t have to works as hard here as in the last, if she can get away by more than a length, she’ll be hard to catch
4 – MARIANNA QUEEN – won her last by 9 ½ l, w2w and didn’t have to work hard for it, ITM 9/12 at the distance, TLRSP# but is stepping up after peak #, last peak was followed by small regression
8 – PEACH PERFECT – PARX 5/1-2-2, but did finish behind #5 in their only match up
Race 10 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 4 races, all won off the pace – PP: all wins 4+
6 – VINE JET – is trying grass for the first time, the off track record is solid, won his last with ease and could get better in round two
3 – LOOSE ENDS – won his last by 10 lengths on the first time on a sloppy track, TLRSP#, never ran off the board
8 – TWISTED RIDE – another first time grasser, speed with a win at this level, but not likely to get away by himself
1 – UNDERCOVER KITTY – comes in from Pimlico and has some strong LP# and the top Pedigree #s for turf – probably the best bias fit for form, but PP hurts?
Race 11 – 7 Furlongs, 116 races, 84 won by speed, 38 w2w – small inside 3 edge, small 4+ penalty
3 – BOCA ROYALTY – could make EZ work of this field if she repeats her last performance, really strong mid-pace #s and strong LP edge
2 – OCEANO ROSSO – has a solid EP edge over the field, 2nd start after the claim and down multiple classes, 23% and 25% winners for trainer Scott Lake, well above his 16% win rate
4 – SMOOTH AS GLASS – is coming in from TB, probably a par track? TLRSP# and also has some EP, you’ll know right away – if she breaks sharp, she stay interested until the tap, if she doesn’t break well, it’s over
5 – CAWAJA TIME – improved a little in her last, drops in class, which could per her ITM
