Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Terry’s Thistledown Best Bet
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: LA Downs
Parx Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Hizaam – He won his last race at PARX Racing at today’s distance, has the highest last race speed rating and a trainer in the last 14 days who has this record (11 4-2-3).
6 – R Goodtime Charlie – He went up in class and ran 5th and now drops in class today to a level where he can be competitive, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Keeping the Peace– The rail post is winning at 23% clip, drops in class today, the trainer wins 22% of the races in their 2nd race after a claim and he has a good 4F workout on (Jun-01).
2 – Catch My Vibe – He ran 4th after coming into the stretch wide and drops in class today.
Race 2
6 – Magnetique – Not sure what happened in her last race, but she switches to high % jockey Ruben Rivera and was claimed by trainer Jamie Ness who wins 32% of the races in the first start after a claim and the trainer / jockey combo in the last 14 days has won eight out of the fourteen races.
5 – Hay Nineteen – This filly likes to come from off the pace, but the last jockey tried to go to the front and lead all the way without success. She gets a new high % winning jockey who may ride her on how she likes to run.
1 – Congrats Answer – The rail post is winning at 23% clip and the jockey in last 7 days has this record (15 5-1-1).
2 – Juliet’s Music -She finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
7 – Valerie First
4 – Shirley Greene
Race 3
6 – Kadens Courage – He drops in class today after a disappointing last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Star Luck – He has finished in the money four out of the last five races and winning one of the races – The trainer wins 33% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
4 – Otis Otis Otis – He drops in class today, his early speed running style helps his chances and at the shorter distance he will be effective.
7 – King’s House – He has won one out of three starts this year, likes the distance, drops in class today and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
2 – First Navy Admiral
8 – Fast Negotiations
Race 4
4 – Cape Cod Sally – She has a lot of early speed, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey. She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and the shorter distance will be a benefit.
9 – Grape Therapy – She ran 3rd in her last race at PARX Racing after being wide early in the race, has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
8 – Miss Alex – She finished 2nd in two out of her last three races and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – K Cottee – She is trying PARX Racing for the 2nd time and has a Jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (15 5-1-1).
Alternate:
3 – Three Potatoe Four
Race 5
6 – Pylon – He closed to finish 5th in his last race at 5-1/2 furlongs and stretches out to 6-1/2 furlongs which should help – He has a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (15 5-1-1).
2 – Hoistthemainsail – He took a 4-1/2 – month break and disappointed in his first race back finishing last and now drops in class today where the trainer wins 25% of the races when dropping down 2+ classes.
3 – Passage of Lines – He has the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, the trainer wins 31% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and he has a Sharp 4F workout (May-30).
5 – Don’t Recall – He likes the track finishing in the money 40% of the time and the distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money 66% of the time, winning 33% of the races.
Alternate:
1 – Saponara
7 – Alpha’s Candy Man
Race 6
7 – Six o’Clock Sarah – She won her last race at PARX Racing at today’s distance, has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer / jockey combo in last 14 days has won eight out of fourteen starts.
1 – Memphis Mafia – She won her last race at PARX Racing coming from off the pace, the rail post is winning at 23% clip and the trainer / jockey combo in last 14 days has finished in the money in three out of three starts, winning two.
6 – Hey Dewzpots –She has won two out of the last three races, losing one of the last three races when she steadied during the race, and she has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Jet Force – She has a high % winning trainer and a good workout on May23rd.
Alternate:
4 – Powwa of Love
Race 7
8 – Lake Nakuru – He is a deep closer whose best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he likes the turf.
4 – Expensive Cut – He tried turf in his last race at 1-1/16 miles and led for half of the race and now shortens to 7-1/2 furlongs which should help. The trainer wins 29% of the races when going from a Sprint-Route-Sprint.
2 – Agnelli – He may perform better returning to turf and has a good jockey / trainer combination.
3 – Yei Yei – He is going back to turf where he has a first, second and third in seven starts and switches to a high % jockey.
Race 8
1 – Flashndynamite – She has won ten of her sixteen races at PARX Racing, the rail post is winning at a 20% clip, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and her jockey in last 7 days won five out of fifteen starts.
4 – Shero – She finished 3rd in last race, likes the track and distance and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Tonal Vision – She closed to win her last race and got the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Bucks Some – She likes the track and distance and has a High % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Billieanne
3 – Like a Pro
Race 9
7 – Equal Measure– She finished 3rd (on Dirt) in her last race but has shown that she likes turf having the best turf speed among today’s starters, switches to a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey – The trainer wins 32% of the races in the 1st start after being claimed and the trainer / jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (14 8-1-2).
6 – Catti La Belle – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race but is one for one at today’s distance on the turf.
3 – Terpeye – She finished in the money in seven out of the last eight starts, winning two of the races – She has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Madame Rouge– She Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and switches to a high % jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Golden Eib Micrphn
Race 10
5 – Cartwheel – She came in from Aqueduct and won her first race at PARX Racing easily – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a high % winning trainer and high % winning jockey.
7 – Quiet Please – She won in her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and a jockey who in last 7 days has this record (12 5-1-2).
8 – Sweet Blame – She drops in class today after a disappointing last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the jockey in last 7 days has this record (15 5-1-1).
10 – Not in the Mood – She has a trainer who wins 21% of the races when going from a sprint to route and should improve while returning to a route.
Alternate:
2 – Mani Pedi
1 – Mikey’s Jewel
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 92 races, 57 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: Rail advantage, 2/3 underperform 4+ fair
6 – R GOODTIME CHARLIE – small drop in class and had a bit more mid move in his last start
5 – HIZAAM – won his last with ease, better early pace, didn’t have to work hard and should have plenty left for today
1 – KEEPING THE PEACE – making his second start off the claim for tr Patricia Farro. 23%, same rate for the rail
2 – CATCH MY VIBE
Race 2 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 92 races, 57 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: Rail advantage, 2/3 underperform 4+ fair
5 – HAY NINETEEN – LS – improved his pace in the first half mile of her last start, has a decent EP edge over the rese
1 – CONGRATS ANSWER – gets a weight break and the resume says she is likely to be better in her second start after a layoff, 23% winning rail helps
6 – MAGNETIQUE – claimed after stopping in her last in her first PARX start after running in NYRA, tr Jamie Ness hits at 32% off the claim
4 – SHIRLEY GREENE – last race was better than it looks on paper, improved ATB, gets a weight break too
Race 3 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 64 races, 49 won by speed, 31 w2w -PP: Absolute outside to inside bias
1 – STAR LUCK – improved his fractions by about a second in the last effort, PPS say he could be in line for a big jump in 3rd race after a layoff
3 – NO FOOLING DUDE – TLRSP# and drops 2+ classes, a 15% winner for tr Miguel Penaloza
7 – KING’S HOUSE – bombed off the bench, which is not new for him, last time he returned from a layoff, finished last of 6 by 15, came back to wire the field in his next
4 – OTIS OTIS OTIS – taking a big drop in class, his last race wasn’t as bad as it looks was he ran faster early fraction and tired, he probably won’t see that here today
2 – FIRST NAVY ADMIRAL – a little bit of a flier, he has some of the best EP#s in the field and bullet work on May 30
Race 4 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 64 races, 49 won by speed, 31 w2w -PP: Absolute outside to inside bias
9 – GRAPE THERAPY – could improve in her third start after a layoff and third start at PARX, significantly higher LP#s in last and could catch a hot pace here
4 – CAPE COD SALLY – Paco Lopez rides and he’s won 32% of his Parx races, should be part of the early pace
5 – K COTTEE – tough call over a few but is carrying the least amount of weight and should be able to maintain his pace longer
8 – MISS ALEX – third off the bench gives hope for improvement
Race 5 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 92 races, 57 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: Rail advantage, 2/3 underperform 4+ fair
3 – PASSAGE OF LINES – missed as the favorite in his last w/ TLRSP#. Tr Robert Reid, Jr rebounds at 31% next out, decent work between races and cutting off ½ furlong should help
2 – HOISTTHEMAINSAIL – is running at his lowest level since his MCL win in November 2020. Tr Scott Lake hits at 26% on big drops, but drop looks suspicious – why do they want to get rid of the horse?
6 – PYLON – ran a weird race last time out, broke sharply, backed up like something was wrong and then rallied, let’s see if he stays on the pace all the way around today
4 – I’M BLAMING YOU – just missed in his last with some good late run, adding a furlong probably helps
Race 6 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 92 races, 57 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: Rail advantage, 2/3 underperform 4+ fair
1 – MEMPHIS MAFIA – has speed or can run off the lead, usually gets off to a fast start, has room to be better off a w2w win
7 – SIX O’CLOCK SARAH – is coming off a w2w win too, tends to win in bunches, despite being tops at the track, jy Ruben Silvera and tr Jamie Ness have only a slight negative ROI – $0.05
6 – HEY DEWZPOTS – ran a lot faster times in her last race, she looks to be in peak form
4 – POWWA OF LOVE
Race 7 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf, 4 races, all wins off the pace and from posts 4+
8 – LAKE NAKURU – has the best LP# by a wide margin, Denzel at the distance 7/0-4-4
4 – EXPENSIVE CUT – will likely be one of the pacesetters, cutting back from 1 1/16 miles should help
2 – AGNELLI – is another that should be coming late, when he did run in grass faced similar or maybe better at Woodbine
7 – NIANGUA – hard call over the 1/11 – but tr Jacinto Solis has better turf numbers than the others
Race 8 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 151 races, 104 won by speed, 35 w2w – PP: rail has an edge, 2/3 and 8+ win above average 4-7 underperform
4 – SHERO – has the top EP#s by a wide margin, has a win and third in a pair at the distance, one of which was by 6 ¼ lengths with an uncontested lead, that could happen today
1 – FLASHNDYNAMITE – loves PARX 16/10-2-1 and distance 11/7-1-0, been running at NYRA tracks for a while
6 – TONAL VISION – coming off a strong win in her last with better times at 1m70y than 1 mile in previous 2 starts
5 – BUCKS SOME – total Denzel at the distance 6/0-2-4, tough call over #2
Race 9 – 1 Mile Turf, 2 races, both won by closers and posts 4-7
5 – MADAME ROUGE – has two wins in three races on Parx turf, TLRSP# with major upgrade in LP#s in last, could ne better in 3rd off the sidelines
9 – CURRENT SITUATION – track dropper from GP but has 2 wins in 3 on PARX turf, gets a weight break
7 – EQUAL MEASURE – 1st off the claim for Jamie Ness, 33% angle, track dropper from NYRA/Monmouth
3 – TERPEYE – might not win, but has some of the best late legs in group and her off dirt/turf records 16/-2-3-3 and gets Paco Lopez
Race 10 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 151 races, 104 won by speed, 35 w2w – PP: rail has an edge, 2/3 and 8+ win above average 4-7 underperform
5 – CARTWHEEL – won his only race in his last by 6 1/4, extra distance today might help
7 – QUIET PLEASE – TLRSP# with better fractions in her last, ITM 19/4-3-5
8 – SWEET BLAME – getting a weight break and drops in class, distance 19/7-6-1
1 – MIKEY’S JEWEL – been strong at PARX 7/1-3-1, moves inside to the 20% winning rail, finished 3rd last rail run at the distance
