Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Parx Full Card Picks
Terry’s Horseshoe Indianapolis Best Bet
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Factor This In – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – He has a high % winning jockey Frankie Pennington and the trainer /jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-1).
7 – Dubrovsky – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a trainer who wins 17% of the time in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
4 – Big City Ralph – He has finished 3rd vs tougher in last race, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 25% of the time in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.
3 – Defibrillator – He switches to a high % winning jockey and the trainer wins 50% of the time when dropping a horse off a claim.
Alternate:
1 – American Roma
Race 2
5 – Jarlian – He has a High % winning trainer, drops in class today and has finished in the money in four out of five races at today’s distance, winning two of the contests.
3 – Social Equality – He has a High % winning trainer and drops in class today.
7 – Mountain Tree – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (10 5-0-0).
6 – Private Network -He ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the claiming race that he enters.
Alternate:
4 – Dougie
1 – Ilovecharlybrown
Race 3
2 – Gushing Oil – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (15 7-2-3).
1 – Expensive Cut – He won his last race at Keenland, drops in class today and the trainer wins 50% of the time when dropping in class after claiming a horse -The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 4-1-0).
6 – Enraged – He won his last race at PARX Racing; the trainer wins 20% of the time when bringing the winner of their last race back to race again and has a high % winning Jockey.
4 – Buffalo Shuffle – He has won two out of four starts this year, likes the distance, and has a High % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Drone Swarm
Race 4
1 – Don’t Tell Frankie – She won her last race at PARX Racing; the trainer wins 36% of the time in the first race after being claimed and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-1).
6 – Miss Alex – She ran 2nd in her last race at PARX Racing receiving the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
4 – Broad Jumper – She finished 3rd in her last two races.
8 – Hit a Homer Honey– During her career she has finished in the money in 57% of the time, winning 21% of the races.
Alternate:
3 – Yourindenial
Race 5
3 – Brody Slam – She has finished in the money four out of the last five races finishing 3rd in her last race and winning one of the races – She switches to a high % winning trainer and should improve with Blinkers being added today.
2 – Bellamy’spartygirl – She ran 2nd in her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and should improve at the shorter distance.
7 – Beautiful Star – She finished 6th in the mud but had run 3rd in the race before. It seems the mud affected her run, and he should do better today – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (10 5-0-0).
1 – Relentless Ruby – She ran 3rd in her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Tinas Shining Star
Race 6
3 – Lady Brexit – She ran 4th in her last race at PARX Racing after winning the two previous races and the trainer wins 28% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
1 – Lil Miss Hotshot – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer wins 20% of the route races he has a horse entered in.
5 – Frisky Feeling –She drops in class today; She has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2 – Londonderry – She drops in class today and has a trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 2-2-0).
Alternate:
4 – Abhaile
6 – Galileo’s Affair
Race 7
2 – Why Not Babe – She is a first-time starter – Her Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters, the trainer who wins 25% of the time with 1st time starters and she has a bullet 4F workout (May-06).
1 – Lovely Melayra –She Ran 2nd in her last race at PARX Racing and has a High % winning jockey.
7 – Hold Me Closer – She ran 4th in her last race after being wide during the race, has the highest last race speed rating, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 4-1-0).
5 – Snappy Ride – She finished 3rd in her last race – She has a high % winning trainer, and she should improve with Lasix added as the trainer wins 40% of the time when using 2nd time Lasix.
Alternate:
3 – Hidden Cache
8 – Angelofthegalaxy
Race 8
3 – Shez a Doubletake – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Embrace the Whinny – She won her last race at Laurel and her jockey in the last 7 days has this record (10 5-0-0).
4 – A Bit Bad N Boujee – She has finished in the money in her last four races running 2nd vs similar in her last race, winning one of the races prior and she has a high % winning trainer.
2 – One Wild Woman – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the trainer /jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 2-2-0).
Alternate:
6 – Pumpernickel
7 – J D’s Vista
Race 9
6 – Romantic Comedy– She finished 3rd in her last race, the trainer wins 36% of when taking a horse from a maiden claiming race to a maiden race and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (15 7-2-3) – She has a good 4F workout on 11May Parx 4f ft :47.1 B 2/38.
8 – Brooklyn Heights – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a good 4F workout on 05May Parx: 48.2 B 2/16.
1 – Memento Mi – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, the rail post is winning at a 26% clip and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (10 5-0-0).
7 – Smarty Pants Sandy – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
4 – Sonoma County
5 – Sweet Fury
Race 10
2 – E T’s Candy Man – He won his last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Hoistthemainsail – He won in his last race at PARX Racing, the rail post is winning at 26% clip and the trainer wins 20% of the time when bringing the winner of their last race back to race again.
4 – Five Dreams – He switches to a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey and his best dirt speed are the fastest among today’s starters (tie) – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (15 7-2-3).
5 – Speak Unity – He switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey – The trainer /jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-1).
Alternate:
6 – Event Party
7 – Danzafied
Race 11
8 – Kodapendent – He finished 3rd in his last race, winning the previous race and has a decent workout on 05Apr Parx 4f ft :49.1 B 16/62.
5 – Will Take Control – He finished 3rd in his last three races and may improve while returning to a route.
3 – Kith – He finished 3rd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer wins 20% of the races when dropping after claiming a horse.
2 – Indoctrinate – He finished 2nd in his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer High % trainer who wins 24% of claiming races he has a horse in.
Alternate:
4 – Austin Whylie
Rich’s Ranks and Remarks
Race 1 – 1 mile 70 yards, 132 races, 87 won by speed, 29 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 8+ a little > 4-7
3 – DEFIBRILLATOR – LS – has the top LP#s and should not be too far off the lead in race that might not have a lot of pace, 1st off the claim for tr Mary Pattershall 21% angle, slight better ATB
6 – FACTOR THIS IN – clm repeater for tr Jamie Ness, hits at 32%, all or nothing at the distance 9/5-0-0, much butter ATB in his last
4 – BIG CITY RALPH – tr Alexnader Martinez tried 6 ½ f first off the claim, now makes the smart move to horse’s preferred distance 10/4-1-1, has just 2 wins in 18 at other lengths, winner 35% sprint to route
7 – DUBROVSKY – ran better fractions in last, all 6 wins in 27 at the distance, 0 wins in 20 at another distance
Race 2 – 1 1/16 miles, 24 races, 15 won by speed, 8 w2w -PP: zero from rail, just a few 2/3, 4+ fair
6 – PRIVATE NETWORK – LRSP>PAR, turns around from race in April 26, improved 2x in 2/3 with just as quick TA
5 – JARLIAN – 3rd after a layoff and drops again, likes the distance 5/2-2-0
3 – SOCIAL EQUALITY – drops in class and has a decent workout on May 6, 48.2 for 4f, as good, maybe better than most of his in-race #s
2 – MONGOLIAN HERO – is dropping in class and is making his second start off the bench, has some of the best EP# in field with pressers and no front runners
Race 3 – 7 furlongs, 92 races, 64 won by speed, 27 w2w -PP: mostly fair 1-7, small penalty 8+
Tough race – get this one right and you’re likely to cash a nice ticket
6 – ENRAGED – is a pair of noses from winning three in a row, ran 7f two seconds faster in his last compared to his previous 7f start
1 – EXPENSIVE CUT – track drop form Keeneland, class drop, 1st off the claim 20% hit rate for tr Robert Mosco
2 – GUSHING OIL – comes in from Sam Houston for tr Jamie Ness, drops him in class, should be right behind leaders and has the 2ns best LP#s
4 – BUFFALO SHUFFLE – bested top picks by a nose two back, got off to a slow start and rushed up in last, if he gets off to a fast start, has a considerable EP edge
7 – DRONE SWARM
Race 4 – 7 furlongs, 92 races, 64 won by speed, 27 w2w -PP: mostly fair 1-7, small penalty 8+
8 – HIT A HOMER HONEY – last race was a mess but is the lone E/P in the field with the best combo of EP and LP, gets a 12 LB weight break vs all but the #1, 5 lbs on the 1
6 – MISS ALEX – Tie TLRSP# and has the top LP#, ran better 2/4f pace numbers in last
1 – DON’T TELL FRANKIE –won last despite being bumped hard at the start, gets a weight break today, not the biggest fan of MCL – 1st off the claim for tr Mario Dominguez, winner 36% vs 20% overall
7 – PARABLE –
Race 5 – 1 Mile, 55 races, 35 won by speed, 17 w2w – PP: inside out bias 7 to 1 but 8+ penalty?
3 – BRODY SLAM – 1st off the claim for tr Michael Pino, fast 3f work since, gets blinks, has top LP#s and expecting the work and blinkers to get her off to a fast start
2 – BELLAMY’SPARTYGIRL – making her 2nd start off the break, resume hints at a possible pop in round two off the bench. TLRASP#
1 – RELENTLESS RUBY – better late run in her last, could be co-pilot and gets a weight break here
7 – BEAUTIFUL STAR –
Race 6 – 1 1/16 miles, 24 races, 15 won by speed, 8 w2w -PP: zero from rail, just a few 2/3, 4+ fair
5 – FRISKY FEELING – tie TLRSP# and drops, all or nothing at distance 6/3-0-0, maybe better in 2nd off the bench
3 – LADY BREXIT – should be close to the pace with a good late kick, is the only E/P horse in the field, can lead or ride shotgun to the winners’ circle
4 – ABHAILE – has the top EP#s as the lone E horse, last race fractions were faster than the previous race, could get to the lead and not give it up
1 – LIL MISS HOTSHOT – missed as the favorite in her last, tr Silvino Ramirez hasn’t come back to win but ITM 3 of 3
Race 7 – 6 furlongs, 130 races, 86 won by speed, 43 w2w – PP: 8 from rail, inside out from 2+
3 – HIDDEN CACHE – I don’t feel there is a lot to beat in here, so I am starting with the pair of first time starters
2 – WHY NOT BABE – see above
5 – SNAPPY RIDE – has some of the best EP#s and also some of the best LP#s, last race fractions were a little better and limited resume says he’ll be better in round 2 off the bench
7 – HOLD ME CLOSER – is the lone pressure horse and should sit right behind the leaders that tend to fade
Race 8 – 1 Mile, 55 races, 35 won by speed, 17 w2w – PP: inside out bias 7 to 1 but 8+ penalty?
3 – SHEZ A DOUBLETAKE – is coming off the maiden win with the TLRSP#, ITM 5/1-2-1 at Parx, lone E horse in the field with some of the most late run
6 – PUMPERNICKEL – ran better 4f and 6f times in a 7 furlong race on mud compared to 6f on a fast track, 3 SP# increases
2 – ONE WILD WOMAN – been off since March 22 with a decent work since, jy Tr combo of Luis Ocasio and Luis Linder, jr +2.94 ROI
4 – A BIT BAD N BOUJEE – another with 3SP# increases and ran much better fractions last out, ITM 7/15 at Parx
Race 9 – 6 ½ furlongs, 75 races, 46 won by speed, 23 w2w -PP: strong rail bias, fair 2+ but slight inside out bias
6 – ROMANTIC COMEDY – track drop from Oaklawn – strong work on May 11th at Parx, tr Jamie Ness winner 4/11 MCL to MSW with +2.25 ROI
4 – SONOMA COUNTY – track drop from Keeneland, gets Frankie Pennington
1 – MEMENTO MI – rides the high win rate rail with some EP and could be on the gas from the get go, the weight break should help
7 – SMARTY PANTS SANDY – showed much better interest late in her last race, been knocking on the door in the last 3
Race 10 – 6 ½ furlongs, 75 races, 46 won by speed, 23 w2w -PP: strong rail bias, fair 2+ but slight inside out bias
1 – HOISTTHEMAINSAIL – is a nose from winning two in a row, rides the high win rate rail, three good works getting ready
3 – UNCLE GARY G – last race was much better than it looks with much better fractions, gets Paco Lopez 9/5-0-0 at PARX
4 – FIVE DREAMS – track drop from Oaklawn, Ruben Silvera gets off the 2 to ride this one
6 – EVENT PARTY – is the lone closer with all the others getting their Ws on/near the lead, should be able to pick off a lot of tired horses late
Race 11 – 1 mile 70 yards, 132 races, 87 won by speed, 29 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 8+ a little > 4-7
8 – KODAPENDENT – dropping in class, was wide last out and showed better LP, ITM 5/1-1-2 at the distance
5 – WILL TAKE CONTROL – PARX 7/1-0-5, lone win at the Distance, should be close to the pace and has the most late punch for the frontrunners
4 – AUSTIN WHYLIE – is a head from taking home the top prize in two of his last three starts, has a decent maintenance work since last start
2 – INDOCTRINATE – tough call over #1, but is likely to be the pacesetter and just missed last out, maybe more stamina here
