Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Jared and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Parx Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Will Rogers
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 79 Races, 50 won by speed, 26 w2w – PP: Rail wins at 24% 2/3 underperform a little, 4-7 win as expected, 8+ wins a little more than they should
1 – SOUTHERN CENTS – TLRSP#, usually gets off to a quick start and has plenty of EP, 3 SP# increases in a row
5 – SPLENDOR GAL – is another coming off an ugly race – she could make strides in her second start for trainer Felix Flores-Coba, a 29% angle
6 – WHYISSHESOOLUCKY – Tr Scott Lake is dropping this one 2 classes in the second start off the claim, Lake wins at 25% with the down 2 classes angle
3 – MAD MARY
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs, 137 races, 90 won by speed, 44 w2w -PP: Rail winner of just 8, 2/3 slightly outperform, 4-7 slightly underperform and 8+ hit as they should
5 – WHAT’S COOKIN – gets a weight break and drops in class, last race was better than it looks with better 2/4f pace #s, like that combo with a weight break
4 – RAINBOW TROUT – switches to jy Silvestre Gonzalez, our friend Chris P says his research indicated upgrades to jockey with high win percentages is a surprisingly strong angle
3 – FIFTYSHADESOFRUN – is coming off her maiden win in the 11th try with a tie for TLRSP# – she went w2w with the same fractions at 7f in her last vs 5 ½ the previous start
1 – LADY BERNADETTE – 3 SP# increases, win – nope, especially with the rail, but maybe a rally into exotics
Race 3 – 1 mile 70 yards, 137 races, 92 won by speed, 29 w2w – PP: Inside 3 bias, 1-3 win at more than they should, 4+7 win less than they should, 8+ wins at the same rate as 2/3
4 – SMOKEY WHITE – maiden win in his 4th try, 4th straight SP# increases, 1 for 1 at Parx after coming in from GP, Monmouth and Saratoga
3 – JAMIE DREAMS – stretching out for the 1st time, tr Louis Linder, Jr winner 3/12 – I like him teamed with jockey Luis Ocasio – ROI of +1.86
2 – KID BOURBON – TLRSP# on Belmont Inner turf, ran the same SP in previous start at Parx, top # for both races
5 – MARGIN OF AIR
Race 4 – 1 mile 70 yards, 137 races, 92 won by speed, 29 w2w – PP: Inside 3 bias, 1-3 win at more than they should, 4+7 win less than they should, 8+ wins at the same rate as 2/3
4 – STRAWBERRY CONE – TLRSP# in debut, headed to the bench, only 1 OK work between races, was “reluctant” in first start, hoping he gets off to a better start in R2
1 – BOSSMAN JONES – was better ATB in career start #2, was 2-1 favorite, BTN fav wins at 32% for tr John Servis and 2nd dose of Lasix, hits at 29%
6 – BE ONBOARD – track drop after racing at GP for debut and AQ last 2, Kendrick rides, winner 15/45 at Parx, last race might scare some off, but 4&6f fractions were better a 1m than at 6 ½ furlongs.
2 – CAVE MAN –
Race 5 – 7 furlongs, 97 races, 69 won by speed, 36 w2w -PP: 1-3 outperform a little, inside out from 4+
4 – PELOTA – track droppers for CD, 1st off the claim and drop for Jamie Ness, 33% angle, not at all worried about drop, claimed for 30, claiming price here is 25k with 26k purse
8 – O’BRIEN – one of two MSW droppers, has early speed, Denzel horse w/ 15/0-5-2
2 – FICTIONALFAIRYTALE – just missed in his last, was the fifth consecutive SP# increases, much better LP numbers
7 – STASH MY CASH
Race 6 – 2 furlongs, 2 races, both won w2w – all from posts 2/3
3 – LITTLE J P – workouts are EH, didn’t cost a lot but trainer Ernesto Padilla-Preciado winner 4/10 with 1st time starters +5.70 ROI, he has 2 wins in 82 other races – things that make you go hmm
8 – HESFIREDUP – has one race, beating all but one of the other horses with experience, didn’t beat the other because he raced elsewhere
1 – DONTINVADEMYSPACE – track drop for LRL and Pimlico, was running 4 ½ lengths, down to 2, jockey Jieron Barbosa with be able to go all out because horse should be fittest of the bunch
7 – KEITHSENDSHELLOOOO
Race 7 – 7 furlongs, 97 races, 69 won by speed, 36 w2w -PP: 1-3 outperform a little, inside out from 4+
2 – PRINCESS CUPID – BB – track dropper from Gulfstream Park, looks like she’ll like Parx with a bullet 4f work on May 12, fastest of 47
7 – ONTHISHARVESTMOON – had significant LP improvement in her last race, missing as the favorite in her first race after a short rest. Resume say she’ll be even better today, trying for her fifth consecutive higher speed #
5 – MOUNTAIN LILLY – TLRSP# at 5 ½ furlongs to get MCL win in 8th try, could be better in her 3rd start off the bench
1 – PEACH PERFECT
Race 8 – Race 6 – 2 furlongs, 2 races, both won w2w – all from posts 2/3
Keep an eye on the odds here, there will be tells as to the thinking at the track
2 – ENCHANTED PRINCESS – was well bet and bad in debut, but has a bullet work on May 11, 2 seconds faster than previous 3f works
7 – BAY AND GOLD – tough call, they all are, over the 6, but has better works
6 – BOSS LIKE BETH –
3 – SHARPENED –
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs, 137 races, 90 won by speed, 44 w2w -PP: Rail winner of just 8, 2/3 slightly outperform, 4-7 slightly underperform and 8+ hit as they should
2 – ADMIRAL ABE – is a horse for the PARX course with 9 wins in 20 races, just 1 win in 9 elsewhere, has by far the best PARX #s
5 – WORD ON A WING – absolutely loves the distance with 5 wins in 8 races (a third thrown in) has just 1 win in 7 tries at any other length
3 – SMOOTH B – was better ATB in hos last, fast fractions in his last at 6 ½ f, better than 6f#s by more than a second
4 – YODEL E A WHO –
Race 10 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 79 Races, 50 won by speed, 26 w2w – PP: Rail wins at 24% 2/3 underperform a little, 4-7 win as expected, 8+ wins a little more than they should
5 – CRAZY SERENA – gets 1st Lasix, tr Felix Flores-Coba is 3/3 and 29% 2nd off the claim, last race was a better than the finish as her 5/6f times were 1 and 2 seconds faster than the previous race
7 – SIX O’CLOCK SARAH – is always involved at the end, 9/2-0-5 and prefers a fast track, like today 6/2-0-3
6 – PAPER MANSION – is another to run better fractions in the second half of her last start, looks like on that like to hang late
4 – WRITE THE CHECK – won her first race at Parx with ease, gets a weight break and just needs to repeat against tougher company
