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Horse Racing Today – Parx Picks – Monday, September 12, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

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Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary 

Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping Picks

Race 1

4 – Ira the Icon – He has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey who in the in last 7 days has this record (7 3-1-0) and a good 4F workout on Sep-03.

1 – Fletcher – He drops in class today and the rail post is winning at 18% clip.

2 – Harley’s Charly – He drops in class today and had a slow start in his debut race.

6 – Alta Fox – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

Alternate:

5 – Theseguysgotgame

3 – Son of a Buck

 

Race 2

5 – Manuka Bobby – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

4 – Turtleneck Ted – He ran 4th in his last race after coming into the stretch wide and has a trainer who wins 22% of the races in maiden claiming races.

2 – Ash of My Enemy – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at PARX Racing and has a good jockey in the irons.

3 – Issuing Justice – He has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today, should improve while returning to Dirt and the trainer wins 34% of the time when taking a horse from turf to dirt.

Alternate:

6 – Duck Ducky Goose


Race 3

7 – True Dakotan – He finished in the money in the last six races and won the last race at PARX Racing.

5 – Henrythethird – He won his last race at Monmouth Park and has decent workouts.

1 – My Brother Neil – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning jockey and trainer.

6 – Austin Whylie – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has the highest last race speed rating.

Alternate:

4 – Lt. Columbo

 

Race 4

9 – Wheresthepassion – He finished in the money in his last four races, winning one of the starts and has a trainer who wins 21% of the races in claiming races.

10 – Outworknforakiss – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and his early speed running style helps his chances.

4 – Captain Chazz – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

2 – Instant Chaos – He finished 3rd in his last race at PARX Racing and has the highest last race speed rating.

Alternate:

8 – Calculated Breeze

3 – Hezastonecoldfox

 

Race 5

6 – Divine Miracle – He finished in the money in eight of nine starts this year, winning six of the starts, has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in last 14 days the combo has this record (4 2-0-0). Throw out his last race as he came very wide into the stretch.

2 – Ruby Bleu – He finished in the money in the last ten races, winning five of the starts, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

4 – Excursion – He won his last two races that he competed in at PARX Racing, likes the track and the distance.

5 – My Friends Beer – He finished 2nd vs similar in his last race at PARX Racing and likes the distance.

Alternate:

3 – Awe Mun

 

Race 6

6 – Escandalo – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing, has a good trainer and distance will not be a problem.

5 – Days Remembered – She drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 23% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.

1 – Creative Joy – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing, the rail post is winning at 18% clip, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and her jockey in the last 7 days has this record (18 5-4-4).

8 – Imagism – She drops in class today and her trainer wins 26% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.

Alternate:

3 – Ruby Dooby Doo

10 – Charlys Wild Angel

 

Race 7 

5 – Shanghai Superfly – He ran 4th vs tougher in his last start but was only beaten by two lengths, drops in class today and he has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0).

1 – Screen Saver – He finished 2nd in his last race, switches to a high % winning trainer and has a jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (20 5-5-3).

2 – Lavery – He should improve while returning to dirt and a sprint, has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-0).

6 – Appealing Future – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and his trainer in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-3-0). 

Alternate:

3 – Absentee

 

Race 8 

1 – Pachelbel – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (7 3-1-0).

2 – Back to D’ Future – She was well bet in debut, finishing 3rd vs tougher in her only start, has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

3 – Winning Moon – She was well bet, finishing 3rd vs similar in her only start, has a high % winning trainer and a jockey.

8 – Riverview – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (18 5-4-4).

Alternate:

5 – Girl From Tyrone

6 – Creative Copy

 

Race 9

2 – Aegean Sea – She tried turf and did not take to it but should improve while returning to dirt, the shorter distance will help, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

6 – Closet Shopper – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (20 5-5-3).

4 – Burano – She finished in the money in five of her six career races, winning one of the starts, has a high % winning trainer and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (7 3-1-0).

9 – Titanic Rose – She finished in the money in seven out of ten races at PARX Racing and has the highest last race speed rating (tie).

Alternate:

7 – Advocate Harbor

 

Race 10

3 – Kissin Cousin – She ran 2nd in her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.

12 – Classy Sadie – She ran 4th in her last race at Monmouth Park after being bumped at the start and steading, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is the fastest among today’s starters.

6 – Hit a Homer Honey – She finished 4th in her last race after being bothered at the start, and she has a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-0).

7 – Nana’s Boopa – She ran 2nd in her last race, switches to a high % winning trainer and her early speed running style helps chances.

Alternate:

2 – Queen Cordelia

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1 – 7 Furlongs, 158 races, 117 won by speed, 54 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 4-7 penalty, 8+ similar to 1-3

This is an evenly matched race for as many as 5 of these

6 – ALTA FOX – TLRSP# and drops in class, showed the most EP in debut and has top EP/LP combo

2 – HARLEY’S CHARLY – dropping in class too, horrible race in debut, but has the second best EP/LP #

4 – IRA THE ICON – Z pattern in last, much better LP In race 2, tr Robert Reid, jr and jy Frankie Pennington win at 33% together with $0.97 ROI

1 – FLETCHER – rides 18% winning rail, drops in class, gets a weight break

 

Race 2 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 99 races, 76 won by speed, 48 w2w – PP: outside in bias

5 – MANUKA BOBBY – was much better 2/4f in last, should be better in r2 off the bench, has EP and some of the most LP

3 – ISSUING JUSTICE – left arrow horse, TLRSP#, drops in class, flips from turf to dirt, 34% winner for trainer Daniel Velazquez

4 – TURTLENECK TED – slightly better fractions in last, should be coming at the end

2 – ASH OF MY ENEMY – better ATB in his last, most of the improvement in the last ½ of the race

 

Race 3 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 221 races, 161 won by speed, 55 w2w – PP: slight inside 3 bias but mostly fair

1 – MY BROTHER NEIL – a decent work between races, has a + EP/LP combo edge

7 – TRUE DAKOTAN – not a fan of MCL risers, but ran much better fractions in last, but it was his first at Parx, resume says some major improvement is possible in round 2 atter a layoff

6 – AUSTIN WHYLIE – TLRSP#, big pop in LP last out, distance 9/1-1-3 all others 15/0-0-2

5 – HENRYTHETHIRD – another MCL riser coming off better fractions and pace numbers in first half mile

 

Race 4 – 6 Furlongs, 214 races, 148 won by speed, 75 w2w – PP: rail penalty, everything else fair

4 – CAPTAIN CHAZZ – won last with better #s ATB, Parx dirt 9/4-1-0

2 – INSTANT CHAOS – has a +LP advantage in a race where 6 of 10 have only won on the lead recently

9 – WHERESTHEPASSION – lone PC horse, he should get a good trip, Parx 10/0-2-4, Distance 5/1-1-2, last race was better than it looks with better fractions at 7f than 6f in previous race

3 – HEZASTONECOLDFOX – going to take a flier on a NYRA dropper, but could prove to be the speed of the speed, lone trip at Parx didn’t go well, but tr Jordan Bullock hit 5/14 first time out with a new horse

 

Race 5 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 221 races, 161 won by speed, 55 w2w – PP: slight inside 3 bias but mostly fair

2 – RUBY BLEU – top EP/LP and Combo scores, drops from $100k NGSTK, 2nd off the claim for tr Miguel Rodriguez, a 35% winner

6 – DIVINE MIRACLE – drops from a $100k NGSTK, only time in 10 at Parx OTM – Parx 10/7-1-1

4 – EXCURSION – distance 9/2-2-3, small drop in class, better fractions early last out

5 – MY FRIENDS BEER – distance 9/3-2-1, better times in last

 

Race 6 – 7 Furlongs, 158 races, 117 won by speed, 54 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 4-7 penalty, 8+ similar to 1-3

5 – DAYS REMEMBERED – LS – left arrow horse with a ++ EP advantage, one of two class droppers, 2nd off the claim for tr Daniel Velazquez, 24% winner

8 – IMAGISM – is the other class dropper, has EP too, gets a weight break today, could be the difference

10 – CHARLYS WILD ANGEL – much better ATB in first start off the claim for tr Patricia Farro, she hits at 22% in 2nd off the claim

6 – ESCANDALO – ITM 50% at Parx 10/0-2-3, a little better early last out, looks like she is running to clean up gimmicks

 

Race 7 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 142 races, 87 won by speed, 45 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, rest are fair

5 – SHANGHAI SUPERFLY – left arrow horse, drops in class after running some better fractions at 6 1/2 f vs 6, BTN FAV – tr Jamie Ness 30% next out

2 – LAVERY – track dropper from MTH and GP, Parx 9/2-0-4, flip back to dirt should help, ITM 10/16 on dirt

1 – SCREEN SAVER – rail bonus, Silvera/Ness, although they cooled down last week, 1st off the claim for Ness – 34% angle

6 – APPEALING FUTURE – drops in class,  a little faster fractions early in last, weight break

 

Race 8 – 6 Furlongs, 214 races, 148 won by speed, 75 w2w – PP: rail penalty, everything else fair

2 – BACK TO D’ FUTURE – decently bet in debut, drops in class off TLRSP#, decent work between races

8 – RIVERVIEW – has a + EP edge at 2/4f, jy/tr combo Andy Hernandez and Michael Moore win 5/14 with +0.49 ROI

1 – PACHELBEL – rail sucks, has some EP, likely co-pilot, gets upgraded to Frankie Pennington today

6 – CREATIVE COPY – 1st time starter without a lot to beat in here, tough call over the 3, but 15-1 is better than 5-1 on a coin toss

3 – WINNING MOON

 

Race 9- 1 Mile 70 Yards, 221 races, 161 won by speed, 55 w2w – PP: slight inside 3 bias but mostly fair

2 – AEGEAN SEA – could be the speed of the speed, has a history of big leads and giving them up, but at his best, he smokes this group – Paco rides

6 – CLOSET SHOPPER – maybe better in 3rd off the bench, Ness 31% sp-sp-rt, but horse 4/0-0-0 at the distance, + LP edge

4 – BURANO – big drop in class, not for sale, Parx 5-1-2-1, distance isn’t a worry 2/0-1-0

9 – TITANIC ROSE –drops in class, tie TLRSP#, 3 SP# increases, hasn’t run at the distance, but 2nd best LP#s and PPs look like the longer the better

 

Race 10 – 6 Furlongs, 214 races, 148 won by speed, 75 w2w – PP: rail penalty, everything else fair

3 – KISSIN COUSIN – should be a part of the early chase and has some of the best LP#s in the group, has a +EP/LP edge

12 – CLASSY SADIE – has the most LP, due at Parx 5/0-4-1

6 – HIT A HOMER HONEY – lone PC horse in the field, deceptively better times last out, distance 6/3-0-1

2 – QUEEN CORDELIA – Pressure horse that should get a good trip, BTN Ness favorite. 30% rebound, weight break and could be better in R2 off the bench

Parx Pace Worksheet

Parx Pace Worksheet 9-12-22

 

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