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Horse Racing Today – PARX Picks – Monday, September 19, 2022

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Parx Horse Racing Picks and Commentary 

Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping

Race 1

3 – Hizaam – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a trainer who wins 50% of the time with claim repeaters.

5 – Puttheglassdown – He switches to a high% winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

2 – The Big Bluff – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a trainer and jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (4 3-0-0).

6 – Deckology – He ran 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, should improve at the shorter distance and has a trainer who wins 21% of the time in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.

Alternate:

1 – Drone Swarm

4 – Mach Trial

 

Race 2

5 – Last Minute Mario – He ran 3rd vs similar in his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and his early speed running style helps chances.

4 – Dixie Cannonball – He tried turf and did not take to it and should improve while returning to dirt and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-4-2).

6 – Muttley – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at PARX Racing, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer who in last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0).

7 – Battle of Berlin – He drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.

Alternate:

2 – Late to the Show

1 – Imagine This

 

Race 3

5 – Political – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and switches to a high % winning trainer who in last 14 days has this record (7 3-1-1).

6 – Off the Meds – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer.

2 – Ahsad –He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a trainer who wins 20% of the time when moving a horse Up 2+ classes.

4 – Tactical Plan – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a trainer who wins 18% of the time when taking a horse from a route to a sprint.

Alternate:

3 – Drena’s Bullet

1 – Glacier Express

 

Race 4

3 – Knight Legend – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and may improve with blinkers added today.

1 – Blowing Big Smoke – The rail post is winning at an 18% clip, he drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-4-2).

2 – Grazely – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and has a trainer and jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (4 3-0-0).

4 – Liberty Runner– He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

Alternate:

8 – Field Officer

5 – Prince Champ

 

Race 5

4 – Rainbow Trout – She likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in three out of four starts, winning one of the starts, she does well at today’s distance and switches to a high % winning jockey.

2 – Shetalkstomuch – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has a good trainer and jockey.

1 – Aruma – She won her last race at PARX Racing and her jockey in the last 7 days has this record (9 3-3-1).

6 – Advocate Harbor – She drops in class today and May improve while returning to a sprint.

Alternate:

5 – Golden Eib Micrphn

 

Race 6

8 – Walk Me Home – She finished in the money in seven out of the last eight races, winning two of the starts, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 50% of the time when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.

6 – Sizzling Roma – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race at PARX Racing and switches to a high % winning jockey.

5 – Miss Mi Mi – She drops in class today and her trainer wins 50% of the time when he drops a horse off a claim, she has the highest last race speed rating, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).

4 – Oceano Rosso – She has a high % trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-1-1) and a trainer who wins 35% of the time in the second race after claiming a horse.

Alternate:

2 – Magical Anna

 

Race 7 

7 – Board Certified – He comes in from Monmouth Park after finishing 3rd vs similar in his last race and his trainer wins 25% of the time in a horse’s 1st start with this trainer.

5 – Recycle – He ran 2nd in his last race and has a trainer who wins 20% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.

10 – T Rex – He was beaten only 1-1/4 lengths vs tougher in his last start, drops in class today, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-4-2).

6 – Bob in Our Midst – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).

 

Race 8 

4 – Elusive Ryder – She drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 33% of the time when taking a horse from turf to dirt and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-4-2).

7 – Isabella Smile – She was claimed and finished 4th after coming into the stretch wide but her trainer wins 23% of the time in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.

5 – I’m a Coco Pebbles – She finished in the money in three of the last four races, finishing 3rd vs similar in her last race.

9 – Sheknowsthedrill – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and has a good 5F workout on Sep-10.

Alternate:

1 – Holmdel Park

 

Race 9

3 – Super Dude – He finished in the money in three of the last four races, winning two of the starts and running 2nd vs tougher in his last race – He has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-1-1).

10 – Wentz – He won his last race at PARX Racing, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, has a high % winning trainer and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-4-2).

11 – Helosthismarbles – He finished in the money in three out of five races at PARX Racing, winning two and drops in class today.

4 – Holdtheflight – He has won two out of the last four races including the last race at PENN National.

 

Race 10

9 – Skillful – He finished in the money in the last ten races, winning two of the starts the last race was won at Monmouth Park.

10 – Pretty Good Year – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race has high % winning trainer Jamie Ness, switches to a high % winning jockey Ruben Silvera who in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-4-2).

4 – Sound the Charge – Throw out his last race as he had plenty of trouble, he has finished in the money in three out of five races at PARX Racing, winning two and has a High % winning trainer.

3 – In Equality– He only need repeat his last race where he won at PARX Racing and has finished in the money in all his start there.

 

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 147 races, 90 won by speed, 47 w2w – PP: Rail Bias, all else fair

2 – THE BIG BLUFF – left arrow horse coming off a W where he ran better fractions at 7f than 6f

5 – PUTTHEGLASSDOWN – was claimed last out, tr Michael Pino hits at 20% off the claim and won 2/3 with jy Mychel Sanchez for a +3.20 ROI

3 – HIZAAM – has the top LP and is a fan of the distance with three wins and a second in 5, better 2/4f #s last out

6 – DECKOLOGY – should be the pacesetter but is likely to have plenty of company. Making his second start off the claim for tr Joseph Taylor, a 22% winner, but horse is 3/0-0-0 at the distance

 

Race 2 – 6 Furlongs, 222 races, 153 won by speed, 75 w2w – PP: Rail penalty, all else fair

6 – MUTTLEY – usually not a fan of MCL risers, but likely pilot with some of the best late legs, +EP/LP edge, weight break

5 – LAST MINUTE MARIO – if the 6 isn’t on the lead the 5 is, likely better in r2 off the bench, ran faster 2/4 times in last and catches a weight break too

3 – MIGHTY TOUGH – track dropper from GP, has +LP advantage, TLRSP#, been of since Feb and works are consistent but Ehh.

7 – BATTLE OF BERLIN – down in class, just needs to rerun debut to get the score here, been off since March and the works are a little on the slow side

 

Race 3 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 147 races, 90 won by speed, 47 w2w – PP: Rail Bias, all else fair

6 – OFF THE MEDS – left arrow horse, better fractions at 2/4/6 f at 7f vs 6f

2 – AHSAD – has a +EP edge at 4f, gets real brave if he is on the lead heading into the stretch, real nice mid-move improvement in last

7 – WILD UNION – lone PC horse in the field, wouldn’t be surprised to see him step on the gas out of the gate, better 2nd half of last race

5 – POLITICAL – most LP in the group, TLRSP#, 1st off the claim for tr Miquel Rodriguez, a 16% winner

 

Race 4 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 227 races, 166 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: inside 3 small bonus, 4+ a little below par

3 – KNIGHT LEGEND – something is wrong with him if he isn’t bet down, ++++ EP/LP edge

2 – GRAZELY – TLSRSP#, jy/tr combo of Jeremy Laprida/ Felix Coba-Flores winners 8/20 +2.26 ROI

1 – BLOWING BIG SMOKE – Jamie Ness/Ruben Silvera, you have to play them but his last two were bad

5 – PRINCE CHAMP – top LP in the field, that’s enough to place him over the rest, which isn’t much

 

Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 222 races, 153 won by speed, 75 w2w – PP: Rail penalty, all else fair

5 – GOLDEN EIB MICRPHN – should be the pace setter after 4f, top EP/LP combo with better 2/4f fractions last effort

1 – ARUMA – better ATB last out, 5/2-0-1 at the distance, 4/0-0-0 at any other

4 – RAINBOW TROUT – has run well fresh off the break like today, 5 of 6 ITM finishes either 1st off a layoff or debut

6 – ADVOCATE HARBOR

2 – SHETALKSTOMUCH

 

Race 6 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 100 races, 77 won by speed, 49 w2w – PP: outside to inside bias, 1-3 penalty

8 – WALK ME HOME – Parx 12/3-3-3 including EZ win at distance, down multiple classes, a few maintenance works between races

5 – MISS MI MI – TLRSP#, 1st off the claim, tr Robert Mosco hits at 19%, been off since Feb, won the last time he returned following a similar break

6 – SIZZLING ROMA – down multiple classes, tr Ronald Dandy winner 4/12

4 – OCEANO ROSSO – not the biggest fan of Penn to Parx, but has some Parx success, tr Miguel Rodriguez winner 7/20 2nd off the claim

 

Race 7 – 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf, 27 races, 18 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: mostly fair, slight discount 8+

5 – RECYCLE – left arrow horse, just missed last out, better fractions, Parx 2/1-0-1

10 – T REX – not a fan of the draw, top LP#s and way, way better late in his last, drop in class helps

7 – BOARD CERTIFIED – track dropper from MTH and GP, ran on Parx dirt and bombed, but seems grass is the preferred surface, could step up nicely in 2nd start after a layoff

6  – BOB IN OUR MIDST – tough between the 6 and 1 as the 1 is more consistent and the 6 has higher highs and lower lows

 

Race 8 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 227 races, 166 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: inside 3 small bonus, 4+ a little below par

4 – ELUSIVE RYDER – TLRSP#, flipping from turf to dirt, tr Danny Velazques winner 10/30

7 – ISABELLA SMILE – 2nd off the claim for tr Alexander Martinez, 23% winner, +2.51 ROI, top LP#

1 – HOLMDEL PARK – should be pilot or co-pilot, doesn’t look like it on paper, but last race was improvement over the previous start

9 – SHEKNOWSTHEDRILL – ran faster fractions last out, maybe too fast, the right fractions and she could go w2w

 

Race 9 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 227 races, 166 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: inside 3 small bonus, 4+ a little below par

11 – HELOSTHISMARBLES – lone EP horse in the field, got to ignore last, 2nd start for tr Joseph Taylor, 24% winner

10 – WENTZ – better 1m70y final time in last, Ness/Silvera, PARX 24/8-2-4, Ness claim repeater 33%, alpha angle for him

3 – SUPER DUDE – has the top LP and EP/LP combo in the field, a little better fractions last out despite going 70 yards longer

4 – HOLDTHEFLIGHT – fast dirt seems to be surface of preference, 5/2-0-1, usually ITM first off a rest

 

Race 10 – 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf, 27 races, 18 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: mostly fair, slight discount 8+

3 – IN EQUALITY – Parx turf 4/2-0-2, first off the claim tr Guadelupe Guerrero 17% winner for 12% trainer

2 – UNCLE ANDREW – left arrow horse, better early fractions in last, turf 16/4-1-6

15 – ACKER – should be better in 2nd after a layoff according to resume, better 2/4 pace#s in last

10 – PRETTY GOOD YEAR

PARX Race Pace Worksheet

Parx Pace Worksheet 9-19-22

 

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