Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Tom and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Fort Erie
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Best Bet
Race 10 – 1 – Perfect Direction – won maiden claimer at 25k, place in stakes race rea 4th of 5. First time on turf out a dam who won stakes at SA raced only 3 times 2 wins 1 second as a 2yr. Dam side bred for turf. 5 foals all have won.
Longshot
Race 5 – 5 – Kane – signs of life? Late move in last race to get up for 3rd. Longshot again but what the heck!
Race 1 – 3 – Singinthruthestorm – since moving from GP, he has a 2nd first start at Parx and a win in a maiden clm, Good speed# vs this bunch in last.
Race 2 – 1 – Matoula – ships in from NY circuit, 2 ok efforts at AQU, big drop and will be the big favorite. May not do a damn thing here too.
Race 3 – Wild Army Brat – first time starter with a work of :47.4b, trainer has 32 starts 8 wins. Breeding is ok, mare produces winner
Race 4 – NY Anthem – ran 3rd in first start of career at Parx close to the leaders and ran on for 3rd. Shipped to BEL to face state-breds, pressed and then nothing. This is a better spot.
Race 5 – Kane – signs of life? Late move in last race to get up for 3rd. Longshot again but what the heck!
Race 6 – 3 – Walk Me Home – been completive in last 5 races with 2 wins 2 seconds 1 third. Drops to 15k after running in handicap 16k. close to pace will get the job done. Best Bet of the day.
Race 7 – 9 – Runaway Star – ships in PID after finally winning maiden and then an ok vs allowance company. He’s run good on the Laurel dirt before and overall ok races 12 starts 6 placings. Second start of the year.
Race 8 – 2 – Declaration Time – trouble at start but ran well to get 3rd. Should be the favorite off last and dam was a winner on turf at distance
Race 9 – 10 – Aegean Sea – won easily last out by 11L+. Outside speed and has won from outside post before. There is speed inside of him so getting the trip will be key.
Race 10 – 1 – Perfect Direction – won maiden claimer at 25k, place in stakes race rea 4th of 5. First time on turf out a dam who won stakes at SA raced only 3 times 2 wins 1 second as a 2yr. Dam side bred for turf. 5 foals all have won.
Race 11 – 8 – Thorover – since coming to Parx he’s won and place sitting near the leaders. He didn’t run badly at GP and moving to nw3 level for the first time.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 143 races, 99 won by speed, 30 w2w – PP: bias, 2/3 and 8+ win at same rate a little better than they should, 4-7 underperform
6 – WILL TAKE CONTROL – tied for TLRSP# ran a little faster 1m70y fractions in last than previous race at same distance
2 – THE METHOD – is the other to tie for the TLRSP#, it was his 4th consecutive SP# increases
3 – SINGINTHRUTHESTORM – better times at 1m70y than 1 mile, not a fan of horses coming off MCL win in 11th try, but gets a jockey upgrade to Ruben Silvera
5 – LIBERTY RUNNER – has better #s than the 1 and 4, could be a decent price to hit backside of exotics
Race 2 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 143 races, 99 won by speed, 30 w2w – PP: bias, 2/3 and 8+ win at same rate a little better than they should, 4-7 underperform
7 – BELLAMY’SPARTYGIRL – is dropping in class after posting the highest last race speed figure
6 – LIAM’S LADY – gets a little bit of a weight break, last race was better from start to finish
1 – MATOULA – track drop from NYRA, dropping 2 classes, trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci hits at 37% with +0.69 ROI
5 – RISEN CHANGE – gets a small weight break, chased much faster fractions in her last than the previous race
Race 3 – 4 ½ Furlongs, not enough races for bias
8 – BOSS LIKE BETH – was decently bet in debut, has the TLRSP# by a wide margin, but only ran 2f
2 – MAGIC BEAUTY – track drop form Belmont, class drop, gets top jockey Ruben Silvera, would have liked a work since his her last
4 – CHANCE OCCURRENCE – ran the 2nd best speed # by a decent margin over the others, has a couple of good 4f workouts since
5 – WILD ARMY BRAT – four works getting ready for debut, two were bullets, but another was 2/37 and the best of them all
Race 4 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 61 races, 46 won by speed, 29 w2w -PP: absolute outside to inside bias
8 – N Y ANTHEM – debuted at Parx, went to Belmont, drops in class here, last race was much better in the 1st half mile
2 – MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT – ships in from Santa Anita, track drop, class drop, jy/tr combo Frankie Pennington and Scott Lake 5/12 with +0.80 ROI
7 – PRIVATE SECTOR – works are really good getting ready for debut
6 – FLACO EXPLOSIVO – gets a weight break and ran better fractions in his last, but he’s had the most chances of these to get the maiden score
Race 5 – 7 Furlongs, 101 races, 73 won by speed, 32 w2w -PP: small inside 3 bias
6 – PORSUPUESTO – the only in the field to drop in class after the TLRSP#, weight break
4 – NATAVALLI’S KNIGHT – better times in his 2nd start after a layoff and 1st off the claim for tr Michael Pino, winner 18% 2nd off a claim
5 – KANE – is another that put up better numbers in his last with a much better LP# figure
1 – ISSUING JUSTICE – gets a jockey upgrade, but couldn’t close the deal at the same level at PENN, has a nice work since the Penn race
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs, 143 races, 93 won by speed, 46 w2w -PP: rail 8 winners, only 2/3 slight outperform, all else is close to par
3 – WALK ME HOME – missed as the favorite in last, tr Kathleen Demasi rebounds at 26%, ITM 9/3-3-1 at Parx, 6/1-3-1 at distance
5 – SEAMIALAUGH – won her last with tr Silvestre Gonzalez, he rides again instead of 7, ITM 7/9 at the distance
1 – STILL ALIVE – would like to rank higher, but can’t take the rail at the distance, TLRSP# and drops in class
7 – TERPEYE – had 5 straight solid races before taking a short rest, has two maintenance works since
Race 7 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 86 races, 54 won by speed, 27 w2w -PP: strong rail bias, 2/3 underperform, 4+ perform a little better than expected
2 – VERRAZANO BRIDGE – ran the best last race speed figure and his resume says he will be as good or better in round 2 off the bench
3 – DONT BREAK THE LAW – usually gets off to a slow start and then rallies hard, if he can get off to a good start, lookout
7 – CATTY’S UNCLE – cuts back in distance and class, 1m70y times were considerably faster in last
5 – INDOCTRINATE – has been close at Parx 5/0-3-0, 2nd in the last two, a little better LP#s last out
Race 8 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – no races
2 – DECLARATION TIME – (BB) comes in from Laurel Park debut and should be better in race #2
5 – SWATH track drop from Keeneland, 1st off the claim for tr Michael Pino – 20% winner
12 – THE GREAT GAZOO – gets Paco Lopez, winning at 33% at Parx, could make gains in his second start after a layoff
9 – VICTORY ANTHEM – has been facing tougher at Pimlico and Aqueduct
Race 9 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 143 races, 99 won by speed, 30 w2w – PP: bias, 2/3 and 8+ win at same rate a little better than they should, 4-7 underperform
Box it Up
7 – BLUE PAYNT – has a pair of seconds in two at the distance, loves PARX 9/4-5-0, similar times at 1m70y in her last as 7f in previous race
10 – AEGEAN SEA – should be on the lead and won her last by 11, been my experience a big race is usually followed by another
1 – LEAN ON E – better fractions last time, tie for the TLRSP# and rides high win rate rail, I like the jy/tr combo of Luis Ocasio and Louis Linder, jr
3 – ADHWAA – gets a weight break on 2nd start off the claim for tr Robert Mosco, 21% angle, distance 3/0-2-1
Race 10 – 1 mile 70 yards Turf – no races
10 – MIA TOSCA – is making her first run on grass, her 2/1-1-0 on a muddy and good track suggest she will like it
4 – QUALITY CONTROL – won her last at GP, track drop, will be rolling at the end
6 – TIC TIC TIC BOOM – another with a solid off track record, been in grass 6 times with 3 thirds, 3rd start after a layoff- last time was the best by far
1 – PERFECT DIRECTION – won debut, tried 100K non graded stakes, now tries grass and a route for the first time
Race 11 – 7 Furlongs, 101 races, 73 won by speed, 32 w2w -PP: small inside 3 bias
8 – THOROVER – (LS) has a win and second in two at Parx, claim and drop, tie TLRSP#
1 – FULL SEND – won his last w2w at 7f, 6f fractions faster than previous race at 6f
7 – INDIRECTLY – strong pace# improvement in the hirst ½ mile of last race, 4 SP# increases
6 – HALSTAAT – tie TLRSP#, much better ATB in last
