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Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Turf Paradise
Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapper
Race 1
2 – Crafty Jack – He won his last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
3 – Hide the Ransom – He likes PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (15 4-4-1).
4 – E T’s Super Star – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – May We All – He drops in class today and has a trainer and jockey combo who in last 14 days has won three out of six starts.
Alternate:
7 – Golden Spoke
1 – Extreme Force
Bet: None
Race 2
3 – Willy Mc – He has won three out his last four races and has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Indoctrinate – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 30% when dropping a horse off a claim.
1 – Private Network – He won his last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
5 – Passage of Lines – He drops in class today has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Bet: $.50 trifecta # 3, 7 / 1, 3, 7/ 1, 3, 4, 5, 7
Race 3
6 – Epicurean – She has won two out her last four races and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Sense a Million – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has finished in the money in 100% of her starts at today’s distance.
3 – Seeking the Dream – She won her last race and has the highest last race speed rating (Tie).
Longshot:
2 – Schnuer Will – She has finished in the money in her last five races, winning three of the starts at PARX Racing and distance will not be a problem.
Alternate:
9 – Tara’s Talent
5 – Bess
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box # 3, 6, 8
Race 4
2 – Saint Marco – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
4 – True Dakotan – He drops in class today, has a high % trainer and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
# 11 – Speight’spercomete – He drops in class and has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% on of the races when dropping a horse Down 2+ classes.
Longshot:
8 – Tough Workout – He has an early foot, drops in class and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
9 – Vancouver d’Oro
6 – Whata Guy
Bet: None
Race 5
10 – Origo – He won his last race, has the highest last race speed rating has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (15 4-4-1).
9 – We Be There – He has finished 3rd in his last race races and has a high % winning trainer.
3 – The Method – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Kith – His early speed running style helps chances.
Alternate:
8 – He Runs the Line
Bet: $1.00 DD # 3, 5, 8, 9, 10 with #1
Race 6
1 – Causes Trouble – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and the shorter distance should help as his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Infinite Zeal – He comes in from Keenland, drops in class today and can improve at the shorter distance.
5 – Gerrys Magic Map – He has a high % trainer who wins who wins 24% on of the races in Maiden Claiming races.
Longshot:
6- Almond Cider – His early speed running style helps chances and the shorter distance should help.
Alternate:
4 – Alignment
7 – Full Contact
Bet: $25.00 # 1 – $.50 Pick 4 – 6th race #1- 7th race # 3, 4, 5, 8, 9 – 8th race # 3, 5, 7, 8 – 9th race #2, 6, 7
Race 7
9 – Chewy Chewy Good – She won her last race at Penn National, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
3 – Sizzling Roma – She likes the track running 2nd in her last race and likes the distance.
4 – Summary Judgment – He won her last race at PARX Racing and has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
5 – Seamialaugh – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Bet: $.50 trifecta # 3, 9 / 3, 4, 9 / 3, 4. 5, 9
Alternate:
8 – Excitable Lady
Race 8
7 – Theseguysgotgame – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% on of the races in the 2nd Route race a horse runs.
5 – Son of a Buck – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Fierce and Strong – He came into the stretch very wide in his last race, has a high % winning jockey and Lasix is added.
Longshot:
8 – Winnin’onweekends – He was well bet in debut and has a trainer and jockey who in the last 14 days has won three out of three starts.
Alternate:
8 – Alta Fox
2 – Warrior’s Vendetta
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 8th race 5, 7 – 9th race # 2, 6, 7- 10th race # 13- 11th race #1, 6, 7
Race 9
6 – Mega Charlie – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Yo Nessroundonkern – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Regality – He has finished in the money in three out his last four races winning two starts.
Longshot:
5 – Liam’s Blue Moon – He came from aqueduct and won his first race and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Bokermin
Bet: None
Race 10
13 – Hard Sting – She closed to win her last races and is trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Frankie Pennington.
8 – Super Dude – She finished in the money in eight races out of her last ten races, winning two of the starts.
2 – Exit Right – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1- Malibu Star – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.
Bet: $10.00 win #13
Race 11
1 – Manolete – He won his last race, and the rail post is winning at 19% clip.
7 – Runningforhome – He has finished second in his last two races and the shorter distance will help.
6 – Pointer – He drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Kate’s Golden Dude – He drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
9 – Daytime Lover
8 – Boat Over the Hill
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed with a Rail Penalty, 2+ Fair
2 – CRAFTY JACK – TLRSP# with 3 wins in a row, better fractions in last
3 – HIDE THE RANSOM – might not look like it on paper, but this Ness/Silvera combo could be on/near the lead and drops in class – lowest level in last 10
1 – EXTREME FORCE – let’s take a shot here – faster times at 7f v 6 ½ with huge jump in 2/4f – ATB
7 – GOLDEN SPOKE – tough call over the 4 & 6/ but better #s at Parx and distance 9/3-1-2
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,3/2,3/1,2,3,6,7
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, Fair 1-7, Small Discount 8+
3 – WILLY MC – won his last by 14 – he followed up his last big win with another, albeit closer win
7 – INDOCTRINATE – seconditis, three in a row, Parx 12/2-6-1, dropping off the claim here, 30% angle for tr Michael Pino
5 – PASSAGE OF LINES – decent works getting ready for first race since Nov 14, likely to close to the front at a price
1 – PRIVATE NETWORK – benefits from the 8 scratching and should be part of the EP in a race filled with closers
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,7/3,5,7/1,3,4,5,7
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, Inside Three Bias, Slight Discount 4-7, 8+ Fair
9 – TARA’S TALENT – a little better times last time out, better 2/4f pace#s
8 – SENSE A MILLION – quicker 4 & 6 f times at 6 ½ v 6f, distance 4/2-1-1
5 – BESS – is a nose from winning her last three at Parx, been of since July, has run well off the bench, OK works getting ready
2 – SCHNUER WILL – tr John Servis winner 9/21 going sprint-route-sprint, 1 for 1 at the distance
Suggested Wagers: $1 Double: 9/1,2,4,6,8,11
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed, Fair 1-7, 8+ Bias
4 – TRUE DAKOTAN – don’t care for the regression in his last race, but if he can run back to one of his previous three races, has a good shot here
2 – SAINT MARCO – was improved through the fist half mile despite going a little longer, consistent performer
8 – TOUGH WORKOUT – TLRSP# with +6 LP edge, much quicker times from start to finish in last
11 – SPEIGHT’SPERCOMETE – Track dropper from NYRA, CD and FG, dropping multiple classes fo tr Bruce Brown winner 4/12 with plus ROI of 0.53
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,4,8/2,4/2,4,6,8,11
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed, Fair 1-7, 8+ Bias
10 – ORIGO – crushed them by 7 ¾ lengths in his last with TLRSP# and +7 EP edge at 4f, maybe better in race 2 off the bench, moves from NW of 3 to NW of 4
9 – WE BE THERE – ran a little but faster at 1 1/16 miles v 1m 70y – Distance 9/1-2-4
5 – KITH – blew a tire in his last, expecting improvement in his second after a layoff, has back speed
8 – HE RUNS THE LINE – finished ahead of the top pick 2 races back, last two have been bad
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,9,10/9,10/5,7,8,9,10
2 – MR. EINSTEIN
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 45% w2w, Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
1 – CAUSES TROUBLE – 2 seconds in a row, regressed in last, regressed in only other third start off the bench like today
6 – ALMOND CIDER – finished behind #1 last out, but was competing for the lead in the stretch, has a +6 EP/LP edge on the rest, but questionable second off the bench record
5 – GERRYS MAGIC MAP – lone P horse without a lot of speed to chase and mostly horses that haven’t been close at the end behind him
2 – INFINITE ZEAL – lone class dropper coming in from Keeneland, that alone puts him in contention here
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,6/1,5,6/1,2,4,5,6
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, Rail Bonus, 2+ Fair
5 – SEAMIALAUGH – taking a shot on a horse that improve plenty in the first half mile in her last effort, should be on the lead and gets a 5 pound weight break – possible lone E
4 – SUMMARY JUDGMENT -repeat of last and she can go back to back wins, but tr Jorge Diaz 0-22 up 2+ clasess
9 – CHEWY CHEWY GOOD – Big fan of show friends Tyler Conner and tr Erin McClellan, not a big fan of Penn shippers
3 – SIZZLING ROMA – consistent performer, very consistent performer, steady from start to finish
Suggested Wagers: $1 Exacta Key Box: 5/2,3,4,8,9
Race 8: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, Inside Three and 8+ Bias, 4-7 Minor Discount
7 – THESEGUYSGOTGAME – Increased Speed Number in every race after debut, tr Louis Linder, Jr Winner 5/10 2nd route
5 – SON OF A BUCK – 2nd by a head in last, potentially better in second off the bench
8 – WINNIN’ONWEEKENDS – looking for more in second career start and was bet down to 8/5 in debut
4 – PROFESSOR KOOL – benefits from the 6 scratching and should be close to the front
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick Four: 4,5,7/2,3,5,6/1,2,13/1,6
Race 9: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, Inside Three Bias, Slight Discount 4-7, 8+ Fair
6 – MEGA CHARLIE – has a +5 EP edge at 4f, TLRSP# a little faster last out early, cutting back in distance helps
5 – LIAM’S BLUE MOON – won last in first race at Parx after coming in from Aqueduct, Delaware and GP
2 – REGALITY – won last w2w as the 1:2 favorite, similar fractions at 1m70y as 1m
3 – BOKERMIN – has a +7 LP edge on the field, comes in from Woodbine, speed numbers more than fit and OK work at Parx
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,5,6/5,6/2,3,5,6,7
Race 10: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, Inside Three and 8+ Bias, 4-7 Minor Discount
13 – HARD STING – drops in class off a win, has a +9 LP edge, Parx 16/4-5-5
2 – EXIT RIGHT – hard to believe he win be 12 with Ness/Silvera and Parx 19/10-4-2, Distance 12/6-1-1, nice works getting ready
1 – MALIBU STAR – BTN FAV – tr Ernesto Padilla-Preciado rebounds at 28%, another that likes Parx 6/3-2-0, resume say better in 3rd off the bench
11 – ABSENTEE – taking a pretty good class drop and won the last time he ran at this level
Suggested Wagers: $1 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,11,13
Race 11: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, Rail Bonus, 2+ Fair
1 – MANOLETE – TLRSP# with a +10 EP/LP Advantage
6 – POINTER – might not look like it on paper but has a +5 EP edge at the ¼ and +6 at the ½
7 – RUNNINGFORHOME – ran a little bitter quicker time last out, maybe the cut back in distance helps
5 – PETULANT DELIGHT – Lone EP horse, been out of form in last two, showed some signs of life in last
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,6,7/1,6/1,2,5,6,7
Parx Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet
