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Horse Racing Today – Parx Racing Picks Live – Monday, November 21, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

Horse Racing Picks

PARX Racing Full Card Picks

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Picks with the Professor’s Play of the Day

Parx Horse Racing Picks and Commentary

Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping 

Race 1

2 – Major Cam – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

6 – Sensible Jim – He finished 2nd in his last race only losing by a neck and receiving the highest last race speed rating.

3 – Verbier – He switches to a high % winning jockey and drops in class today.

4 – Principe – Returning to a route should help him.

Alternate:

5 – Staff Sergeant

1 – Stella’s Tour

 

Race 2

5 – I’m a Coco Pebbles – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and her jockey in last 7 days has finished in the money in seven out of thirteen starts, winning five races (13 5-2-0).

7 – Glowing Star – She drops in class today and should improve while returning to a route.

3 – Lady Fox – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.

2 – Isabella Smile – She drops in class today and the trainer wins 17% of claiming races he has a horse entered in.

Alternate:

8 – Lady Brexit

1 – Mineshaft Magic


Race 3

2 – Cold Walker – He finished in the money in two out of four races, winning one of the starts, drops in class today and has a good 4f workout on 15Nov.

6 – Chrome Dixie – He is a closer who is coming off the turf to the dirt where he has performed well in the past.

1 – Jovial – He has been off for more than 8-months but has been working out in preparation of today’s race where he won a race easily at today’s distance and the rail post is winning at 21% clip.

7 – Ruffy – He drops in class today and he has a good 4F workout on Nov-15.

Alternate:

5 – Southern Runner

Race 4

3 – Nickys Notion – She finished in the money in her last eight races and has the highest last race speed rating.

8- Queen Lucky – She finished 3rd in her last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

1 – Fancy Scepter – She was a little over her head in her last race and drops back in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and can improve while returning to dirt.

4 – Cup of Life – She has finished in the money in eleven out of fifteen races at PARX Racing and drops in class today.

Alternate:

5 – One Pair of Hands

7 – Random Luck 

 

Race 5

5 – My Brother Neil – He won his last race at PARX Racing, drops in class, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer/jockey combo in last 14 days has won two out of three starts.

6 – Sovereign Change – He has a lot of early speed and will have no problem with the distance.

4 – Showing Off – He can either go to the front or come from off the pace to win a race and has high % winning trainer and jockey.

2 – Lawlessness – He has done well at PARX Racing in the past and has a good trainer. 

Alternate:

7 – Jack Gave Back

1 – Tempestuous


Race 6
 

8 – Puttheglassdown – He likes the track finishing in the money in 59% of his starts, winning 23% of the races and has finished in the money in 59% of the time at today’s distance.

7 – Golden Spoke – He only needs to repeat his last race to be competitive and has finished in the money in six out of seven races at today’s distance.

1 – Fast Breakin Cash – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer.

3 – First Navy Admiral – He has an early foot and a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.

Alternate:

2 – Satchel de Ritches

6 – Rack Gin

Race 7

8 – Mischievous Juan – He finished in the money in four out of the last five races, winning two of the starts and has the highest last race speed rating.

5 – Dangnabbit – He can either go to the front or come from off the pace to win a race and lost his last race by only a neck.

9 – Rudy Rod – He switches to a high % winning trainer, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

7 – Will Take Contro – He likes the track finishing 3rd in his last race at PARX Racing and has been improving his speed rating in each of the last three races. 

Alternate:

10 – Lemon Creek Louie

1 – Dougie

Race 8

7 – Dreaming of Smarty – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters, he is trained by John Servis and has a good 4f ft :47 B workout 4/69.

4 – Blue Royal – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has the highest last race speed rating.

1 – Ryan’s Fleet – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and the rail post is winning at 21% clip.

10 – Jackson Road – He has a high % winning trainer, a high % winning jockey and with a better start may do better in this race.

Alternate:

5 – Cumulus

2 – Frankieblueeyes 

 

Race 9

9 – Fast Intentions – She has won three races in a row and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

5 – Cabra Chica – She won her last race at PARX Racing and earned the highest last race speed rating.

6 – Cartwheel – She has won four out of seven races and including one at today’s distance.

4 – Live Aid – She ran 4th in her last race at PARX Racing but was only beaten by 2-lenghts and has a high % winning jockey.

Alternate:

14 – World Party

8 – Spanikopita


Race 10

8 – Imagism – She has been knocking at the door, finishing 3rd vs similar in her last race.

7 – Rolin N Controlin –She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a jockey in the last 7 days who has this record (13 5-2-0).

5 – Pellegrini – She finished 2nd in her last race just missing winning by a head.

1 – Bet On Drama – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, the rail post is winning at 18% clip and her trainer wins 29% when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.

Alternate:

6 – Catalon

2 – Unkoalafied

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed with a rail edge, 4-7 slight discount

2 – MAJOR CAM – left arrow horse with a + edge at 4f and improved late in last

3 – VERBIER – has close to a ++LP advantage and has some back speed

6 – SENSIBLE JIM – missed by a neck after holding the lead late in last, cuts back a touch and has a bullet on NOV 10

1 – STELLA’S TOUR – not much difference between here and the 5, so we’ll play the rail edge

 

Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed with a rail edge, 4-7 slight discount

5 – I’M A COCO PEBBLES – TLRSP# and catches a weight break here, better ATB, maintenance work between starts

3 – LADY FOX – PARX 6/0-3-1, maybe better in 2nd off the break

7 – GLOWING STAR – gets Paco, 3rd off a layoff, was best of the trio in last 3 race cycle

8 – LADY BREXIT – lone EP horse, last was a major clunker, rebounded nicely following the last bomb

 

Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with Rail Bias the rest are fair

2 – COLD WALKER – could be pacesetter and has the best combo of EP/LP, decent work between races

1 – JOVIAL – clearly something went wrong in last, off since March, but won only other PARX race by 12 – works have been steady and look on schedule, looking for him to run back to winning form

7 – RUFFY – down in class, resume says better in R2 off the bench, last was better than it looks with faster fractions early

5 – SOUTHERN RUNNER – was a lot better through the fist half mile of his last race

 

Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 2+ fair with rail discount

9 – ALWAJD – LS – maybe bled in debut? Off since August 1, comes back with 1st Lasix and that November 5th bullet work says she could be much better today

10 – BUNNY BONUS – 1st time starter with a bunch of solid works

3 – NICKYS NOTION – knocking on PARX door, 12/0-6-2, a little better in first half mile of last with TLRSP#

1 – FANCY SCEPTER – rail kind of worries, but could be on the lead, drops in class, PARX 3/0-1-2

 

Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed 1-7 fair, 8+ Bias

5 – MY BROTHER NEIL – better ATB with tie TLRSP# as lone P, drops in class and could be better in R3 after a layoff

4 – SHOWING OFF – could be the top horse in the race, but is making 1st start off the bench, resume says he might not be his best

6 – SOVEREIGN CHANGE – likely pacesetter in 2nd off the claim for tr Guadalupe Guerrero, 24% winner for 14% trainer

2 – LAWLESSNESS – most LP in the race, most likely to run a complete race with top EP/LP combo

 

Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 2+ fair with rail discount

8 – PUTTHEGLASSDOWN – BTN FAV last out, seems to run better off the rail

3 – FIRST NAVY ADMIRAL – has a +EP edge at 2/4f, faster fractions and 2/4 pace#s last out

1 – FAST BREAKIN CASH – Jamie Ness and Ruben Silvera, similar fractions last out at 7v 6f

7 – GOLDEN SPOKE – tough call over the 4, but distance 7/3-1-2 and should be coming late

 

Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Inside Speed, small discount 4-7, 8+ fair

5 – DANGNABBIT – has a +4 edge, 3SP# increases, same fractions at 6 1/2f v 5 1/2f

10 – LEMON CREEK LOUIE – Left Arrow Horse with 3SP# increases too, considerably better late in last

8 – MISCHIEVOUS JUAN – TLRSP#, +EP/LP combo, 6SP# increases, spotty PARX record

7 – WILL TAKE CONTROL – Lone P horse in a field dominated by late comers, PARX 12/2-1-6

 

Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with Rail Bias the rest are fair

4 – BLUE ROYAL – repeat of last race wins this, has a ++4 and top LP, faster by more than a second last out

10 – JACKSON ROAD – been well bet in both starts and has been off to slow starts, better start here helps

7 – DREAMING OF SMARTY – work outs have been consistent and strong getting ready for debut

3 – UNION PARK – low percentage trainer, but the OCT 22nd work was sparkling and maybe the best of all works for firs time starters

 

Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with Rail Bias the rest are fair

9 – FAST INTENTIONS – winner 4 of last 5, Ness and Silvera again, a bunch of nice works getting ready,

6 – CARTWHEEL – PARX 5/3-1-0, last was only OTM finish, gets a 10 pound weight break today

5 – CABRA CHICA – TLRSP#, a half length from being undefeated in 2 at PARX, 1st off the claim, 23% angle for tr Richard Vega, doesn’t run many

14 – WORLD PARTY – PARX 5/3-0-1, gets weight break with Jose Gomez today

4 – LIVE AID – better ATB in last, should be involved from go to photo

 

Race 10: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Inside Speed, small discount 4-7, 8+ fair

7 – ROLIN N CONTROLIN – lone PC horse with top EP/LP combo in the field

8 – IMAGISM – Left Arrow horse, much better early in last, let’s see id she can hold on this time

10 – QUEEN OF CLASS – Track Dropper with some crazy good works getting ready for her fist since Sept 17th

1 – BET ON DRAMA – tough call over the 6, but been the betting fav 5 in a row, eventually she’ll live up to bettors’ faith

Parx Racing Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet 

 

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