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Horse Racing Today – Parx Racing Picks Live – Monday, November 28, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

Horse Racing Picks

Parx Racing Full Card Picks

Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Turf Paradise

Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary

Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping

Race 1

9 – Long Term Thinking – He comes in from Aqueduct, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 30% of the races when shipping a horse in to run.

1 – Zaevion – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.

6 – Captain Chazz – He has finished in 2nd in two races in a row, switches to a high % winning jockey and the trainer who in the last 14 days has won three out of seven races with his entries.

7 – Kate’s Golden Dude – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:

5 – Little Harbour

2 – Shanghai Superfly


Race 2

6 – Gushing Oil – He has been claimed in four races in a row, was the favorite in each of those races and disappointed – He had trouble in the last two races but if he runs back to the race he ran in September, he may just get it done.

2 – Pategory One – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

9 – Scotch Rock’s – He drops in class today and returning to a sprint will help as he is one for one at today’s distance.

4 – Load Up Moe – He drops in class today and will be closing to catch the front runners at the finish.

Alternate:

7 – Defibrillator

 

Race 3

7 – Amount – He comes in from Aqueduct to try PARX Racing for the first time, takes a major drop-in class today and switches to a high % winning jockey.

2 – Outrageous Bet – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race and has the highest last race speed rating.

4 – They Shot Sonny – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a good trainer and jockey.

1 – Strong Breeze – His Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters and the rail post is winning at 18% clip, drops in class today.

Alternate:

6 – Glacier Express


Race 4

10 – Snappy Ride – She has finished in the money in five out of her last five races, winning one of the starts, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

9 – La Regalada – She has finished in the money in seven out of her nine races at PARX Racing, finishing 3rd in her last race.

3 – The Furmanator – She seemed to wake up in her last race winning it at PARX Racing and switches to a high % winning jockey.

1 – Golden Bow– She has an early foot so the shorter distance should help. 

Alternate:

2 – Jezebel Jade


Race 5
 

8 – He’s Got It – He comes in from Aqueduct, drops in class today and has a good jockey.

3- Mr. Tuttle – He ran a disappointing last race as the favorite but had plenty of trouble coming into the stretch and he gets his regular rider back which should help.

9 – Chain Reaction – He switches to a high % jockey and the shorter distance offers hope for improvement.

11 – Loved Again – He finished 4th in his last race only beaten by 2-lenghts and switches to a high % jockey.

 

Race 6 

3 – Dalton – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

6 – Shackle Cat – He has finished in the money in four out of his last five races, winning two of the starts, has high % winning jockey Paco Lopez and has an early foot who will appreciate the cutback in distance.

5 – Champion by Design – He has an early foot winning two out of his last three races by leading all the way and finishing 2nd vs similar in his last race.

4 – Calculated Breeze – He won two out of his last three races and drops in class today. 

Alternate:

7 – Kikkerland

2 – Tizanoxbow

 

Race 7

3 – Miss Dillingham – She likes the track finishing in the money in 66% of the time, winning 44% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as she has won 33% of her starts.

2 – Obstinate – She has won the last two races in a row and is going for a hat trick; she has a high % winning jockey and the highest last race speed rating.

8 – Madame Rouge – She drops in class today and performs well at today’s distance.

5 – Fine One Won – She had a nice 2nd place finish in her last race and does well at PARX Racing, finishing in the money in sixteen out of twenty-three starts. 

Alternate

7 – Charity Stripe

6 – Lula’s Roadrunner


Race 8
 

7 – Kisses for Emily – She ran on an off track in the last two races without success and if the weather stays clear I think she will do better as she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a high % winning jockey.

6 – American Pyramid – She comes in from Hawthorne after winning her last race to try PARX Racing for the first time and has Paco Lopez in the irons.

5 – Tasha – She has the highest last race speed rating and her trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-2).

8 – Lassie’s Notion – She has finished in the money in three out of her last three races, winning the last start and she has a good 4F workout on Nov-15.

Alternate:

3 – Strawberry Point

2 – Brooklyn Heights


Race 9
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6 – Darling Donna – She comes in from Southern Cal after winning two races out of her last three races, has the highest last race speed rating and switches to a high % winning jockey.

5 – Hidden Cache – She has finished in the money in all six of her careers starts, winning her last race at PARX Racing.

8 – Xenatown – She took a 7-month break and in her first race back ran a nice 2nd and has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-1-0).

3 – Our Uptown Girl – She won her last race at PARX Racing and likes the track.

Alternate:

1 – Qpidscarizmatkqtee

7 – Argentina Girl


Race 10

9 – He’s Incredible – He won four out of the last five races at PARX Racing and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

7 – Get the W – He has finished in the money in nine out of his last ten races, winning four of the starts and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (13 4-3-3).

8 – Hushion – He won his last race at PARX Racing, and he has the highest last race speed rating.

1 – Empire’s Score – He ran 2nd in his last two races and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.

Alternate:

4 – Sneakiness

2 – Cumberland Avenue


Race 11

2 – Queen Cordelia – She has finished in the money in four out of her last five races, winning one of the starts and a high % winning trainer and jockey.

1 – Frame This – She won her last race at PARX Racing, drops in class today and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.

6 – Without a View – She won her last race at PARX Racing and drops in class today.

8 – Powwa of Love – She won her last race at PARX Racing, switches to a high % jockey and has a bullet workout on Nov 3rd.

Alternate:

5 – Cajun Cousin

16 – The Biggest One

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with Rail Bias, 2+ fair

1 – ZAEVION – TLRSP# and was better ATB and rides the high win rate

6 – CAPTAIN CHAZZ – is not all that far from winning four in row and seven of twin

2 – SHANGHAI SUPERFLY – 1st off the claim, 13% winner for 9% trainer, distance 9/2-1-4

9 – LONG TERM THINKING – track dropper from NYRA, CD and OP, Parx 1/0-1-0 and Distance 5/0-5-0

 

Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with Rail Bias, 2+ fair

2 – PATEGORY ONE – Left Arrow horse with a + EP/LP edge

6 – GUSHING OIL – claimed 4 races in a row, Parx 6/0-3-1 and distance 1/1-0-0

9 – SCOTCH ROCK’S – 2nd start with tr Carl Jones winner 4/12, Parx 17/3-3-3 and 1/1 at Distance

4 – LOAD UP MOE – has superior +/ LP edge and could improve in 2nd off the bench

 

Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Inside speed bias, 4+ fair

2 – OUTRAGEOUS BET – a couple of 2nds in two at Parx, best EP/LP combo, not sure if the cut back helps

4 – THEY SHOT SONNY – could be better in 3rd off the bench, catches a 5 pound weight break today

7 – AMOUNT – track and class dropper, picks up jockey Ruben Silvera, who gets off the 8, tr Gregory DiPrima doesn’t win much except with shippers and 2nd off the claim, like today
8 – CREA’S BKLYN LAW – has a +LP advantage and drops in class, most consistent performer in the race

 

Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 2+ fair, rail penalty

10 – SNAPPY RIDE – has some EP in a race filled with closers, runs her best on the lead, distance 6/1-3-1

2 – JEZEBEL JADE – been off since August,  won debut, finished 3rd in only other fresh run

9 – LA REGALADA – P horse with the top combo of EP/LP, Parx 9/1-3-3, Distance 6/1-2-2

8 – GOD STILL LOVES ME – Left Arrow Horse, showed plenty of EP in last 2 and held speed longer last out

 

Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with Rail Bias, 2+ fair

11 – LOVED AGAIN – lonely PC horse, flashed a lot of speed at Penn, picks up Silvera

8 – HE’S GOT IT – NYRA Track dropper, possibly better in the 3rd start after a layoff

5 – ANGELUS DIAMOND – could be near the front with all the scratches, much better early in last

3 – MR. TUTTLE – BTN FAV in his last, tr Josue Arce rebounds at 20% vs 12% overall

Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed with Outside In Bias

5 – CHAMPION BY DESIGN – Left Arrow horse with a +/ EP Edge, BTN FAV, Jamie Ness rebounds at 29%

6 – SHACKLE CAT – Parx, 5/2-1-1, Distance 7/2-1-2, first off the bench and resume says he might need one

3 – DALTON – been off since July when he smokes em with w2w TLRSP# race, also might need one

4 – CALCULATED BREEZE  – not sure what happened in last, stopped, just needs to run back to the pair of w2w wins in previous two

 

Race 7: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Inside 3 and 8+ Speed

2 – OBSTINATE – could get ideal trip right off pace with +LP and +/O edge

3 – MISS DILLINGHAM – Ness/Silvera, bullet work for a horse who is Parx 18/8-2-2

5 – FINE ONE WON – better ATB in last, likes to fill up gimmicks at distance 11/0-6-1

6 – LULA’S ROADRUNNER – 3rd off the break, substantial improvement in last

Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 2+ fair, rail penalty

8 – LASSIE’S NOTION – LS – got the MSW 72k win in 8th try, PARX 3/0-0-0, but those last two Parx works say she’s a better horse now

5 – TASHA – Lonely P sitting behand a wall of speed and closer. She has a superior LP and EP/LP advantage

7 – KISSES FOR EMILY – last race was better than it looks on paper with better pace#s from gate to wire

6 – AMERICAN PYRAMID – probably faced much tougher at GP, CD, KEE and KD before winning with easily 9      at Hawthorne, Paco rides

 

Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with Rail Bias, 2+ fair

6 – DARLING DONNA –should be on the gas from go, has +LP and almost ++O

8 – XENATOWN – Lonley PC horse in field of Es and Ps, gets a weight break

4 – ARUMA – could be the pacesetter and gets real brave on the lead

5 – HIDDEN CACHE – PARX 6/1-4-1, better pace#s in the first half mile

 

Race 10: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with Rail Bias, 2+ fair

9 – HE’S INCREDIBLE – almost ++EP edge at 4f, faster fractions at 6 ½ v 6f

7 – GET THE W – the old man still has it, just missed v top pick in last with faster fractions too

8 – HUSHION – TLRSP# and was better ATB, making 2ns start off the bench, could improve but resume is spotty

2 – CUMBERLAND AVENUE – tough call over the 3, three SP# increases in row with big late run improvement

 

Race 11: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with Rail Bias, 2+ fair

8 – POWWA OF LOVE – 1st off the claim tr Guadalupe Guerrero, 17% angle for 13% tr, bullet work Nov 3

2 – QUEEN CORDELIA – Ness and Pennington win at 27% , PARX 4/1-1-1, was better late on last

5 – CAJUN COUSIN – BTN FAV drops in class, tr Felix Flores-Coba rebounds at 31%

12 – SHEZ A DOUBLETAKE – becomes Lonely EP with the 10 scratching, really brave when she is close to the front

Parx Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet

Parx Pace Worksheet 11-28-22

 

 

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