Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Racing Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Picks with the Professor’s Parlay of the Day
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Finger Lakes
PARX Racing Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Towson – She won her last race at PARX Racing; has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0).
2 – Lil Miss Hotshot – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Frisky Feeling –She finished in the money at PARX Racing 43% of the starts, winning 27% of the races and switches to a high % jockey.
5 – Canoochee – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race and has a good jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Valerie First
4 – Hola Princess
Race 2
7 – Grazely – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the time when bringing a horse back after it won its last claiming race and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-0-2).
4 – Speightster Red – She won in his last race at Delaware Park, has the highest last race speed rating and has increased his speed ratings in the last three races.
3 – Jarlian – He was beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs similar in his last start and switches to a high % winning trainer.
5 – French Toast – He Switches to a high % winning jockey and early speed running style helps chances.
Alternate:
2 – Jacks American Pie
Race 3
5 – Major Cam – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-0-2).
8 – Tough Workout – He finished 3rd vs similar after having trouble in his last race, has a trainer who wins 21% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and his early speed running style helps his chances.
6 – Starship Gotham – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race and has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the time in Maiden Claiming races.
2 – Whata Guy – He switches to a high % winning jockey and has a trainer who wins 21% of the time in the 2nd start with this trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Dadashev
4 – Sweet Pari
Race 4
10 – Red Revolution – He drops in class today, should improve at the shorter distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Hornbeam – He comes in from Colonial Downs after winning his last race there to try PARX Racing for first time and has a good jockey.
2 – Mega Charlie– He drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 40% of the time when dropping a horse for their next race, switches to a high % winning jockey and should May improve at the shorter distance.
7 – Country Miles – He was beaten only 2- lengths (on Turf) in last start, switches to a high % winning jockey and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
6 – Hotpot
Race 5
3 – Relativlea – He drops in class today and has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0).
5 – We Be There – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 60% of his starts, winning 30% of the races and has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Mountain Tree – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and his early speed running style helps his chances.
4 – Ronin Warrior – He has finished in the money in 33% of the races at PARX Racing and has a decent workout.
Alternate:
7 – The Method
Race 6
3 – Son of a Saint – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 80% of his starts, winning 30% of the races, drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Cantstoprunning – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-1-1).
6 – Wagon Boss – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
1 – Social Group – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and his early speed running style helps his chances.
Alternate:
12 – Strong Breeze
11 – Mo Ready
Race 7
8 – Ageless Endeavor – He ran 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has a trainer who wins 29% of the time in the 2nd start after she claims a horse.
3 – Enforcer – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Drunken Bridge – He drops in class today and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-0-2).
6 – Gremlin – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters, the breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a bullet workout 5F workout on Oct-08.
Alternate:
2 – Titanium Reckage
7 – Soul Provider
Race 8
6 – Free to Fly – She won her last race at Monmouth Park, has the highest last race speed rating, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie), has a trainer who wins 100% of the time when dropping a horse off a win and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (6 3-0-1).
1 – Flashing Diamond – She ran 2nd in her last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (10 3-0-3).
2 – Imperial Moon – She has won two races in a row going for a hat trick and switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the time when dropping a horse off a win.
7 – Prospera – She comes in from Emerald Downs after winning four races in a row to try PARX Racing for first time and has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (8 4-1-0).
Alternate:
5 – She Dazzle
4 – Peak of Chic
Race 9
8 – He’s Incredible – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating, has a high % trainer and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (6 3-0-1).
4 – Mi Tres Por Ciento – He has won three races in a row, has a trainer who wins 25% of the time when dropping off a win, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Good 4F workout on Oct-06.
2 – Get the W – He finished in the money in eleven out of thirteen starts this year, winning six of the races, drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
6 – Genghis – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
9 – Sneakiness
1 – Federal Case
Race 10
3 – Market Maven – He won his last race at PARX Racing after being off for over five months and at today’s distance and switches to a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0).
4 – Easy Day – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the time when bringing a horse back after winning its last race and has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Spittin Image – He comes in from Emerald Downs to try PARX Racing for first time, the rail post is winning at 21% clip, and he has finished in the money in fourteen out of nineteen starts during his career winning five of the races.
7 – Rob the Rich – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
8 – Hero Tiger
2 – Fast Bob
Race 11
1 – Star Luck – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has the highest last race speed.
8 – Tomater Gator – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race at PRAX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
9 – Youshouldbesolucky – She comes in from Monmouth Park to try PARX Racing for the first time, drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Daytime Lover – She drops in class today and has a good 4F workout (Oct-11).
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Speed but PPs are fair
6 – TOWSON – a little faster fractions last out, better ATB, TLRSP#
2 – LIL MISS HOTSHOT – probably going to be the pacesetter, gets really brav5e when she holds the lead going into the stretch
5 – CANOOCHEE – also ran a little better times last out, catches a weight break and should be coming at the end
1 – FRISKY FEELING – tough call over the 3, but better numbers for PARX and Distance
Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Slightly favors inside Speed
4 – SPEIGHTSTER RED – has a ++ EP/LP edge and could prove to be speed of the speed,
3 – JARLIAN – considerably better ATB in last, 1st time Gelded off the claim
5 – FRENCH TOAST – came off the bench to run faster fractions for the first half, resume says a big lift is possible in round 2 off the break
7 – GRAZELY – won two in a row, tr Felix Flores-Coba keeps him in claiming ranks, a 31% winner for a 21% trainer
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Inside and outside speed with 8+ performing better than 4-7
5 – MAJOR CAM – TLRSP# and drops in class, cutting back in distance should help
2 – WHATA GUY – 2nd start off the claim for tr Scott Lake, 22% for 15% winner, interesting that Ness’ top pick, Ruben rides here and not the 5
8 – TOUGH WORKOUT – has plenty of EP and usually beaks very well, PARX 7/0-3-2, question is can he hold the lead
3 – DADASHEV – EP horse that could be pilot or co-pilot, tough call over the 6, but I’ll take the early wheels over the closer
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Slightly favors inside Speed
10 – RED REVOLUTION – NYRA track dropper, has almost ++ EP/LP combo
6 – HOTPOT – much better ATB in last with Z pattern
4 – HORNBEAM – track dropper from CD, coming off maiden clm win in 8th try, best if the track is fast 4/1-1-1
8 – LT COLUMO – showed a lot of EP in his last start and probably benefits with 9 scratched
Race 5: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Slightly favors inside Speed
5 – WE BE THERE – very consistent performer, PARX 10/3-0-3, off for a while and could be close to the pace from go to photo
3 – RELATIVLEA – has a +LP advantage, and top EP/LP#s, maybe better in 2nd off the claim
4 – RONIN WARRIOR – 1st off the claim for tr Daniel Velazquez, 20% angle for 8% trainer
2 – MOUNTAIN TREE – benefits from the 1 scratching, pilot or co-pilot with the 5
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Speed bias 1-7, discount 8+
3 – SON OF A SAINT – 1st after a brief stint in the barn, has run well fresh, including a 12 length win
6 – WAGON BOSS – TLRSP#, big bump in last, last time a similar bump, did regress next out but still ran a good race
1 – SOCIAL GROUP – been in claiming merry-go-round, nose and ½ length from winning last two, likes 2nd PARX 16/1-6-1
7 – CANTSTOPRUNNING – Z Pattern, better fractions on slop in last, has finished behind many of these
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Speed, slight rail discount, all others fair
3 – ENFORCER – 3rd off a layoff, has some EP, drops in class, distance 7/0-3-1, ++EP/LP
6 – GREMLIN – bullet and go 1st timer, regular workout schedule
8 – AGELESS ENDEAVOR – TLRSP#, a nose and neck from winning last two, Parx 8/2-5-1, Distance 3/0-2-1
4 – DRUNKEN BRIDGE – Ness and Pennington hit at 30%, debut was sharp, last wasn’t. maybe didn’t care for the slop? drops
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Speed, slight rail discount, all others fair
6 – FREE TO FLY – is undefeated in three at Parx, winner 12/18 at the distance, 3SP# increases, did regress a little the last time
1 – FLASHING DIAMOND – consistent high-end performer for this crew, should be part of the early chase
2 – IMPERIAL MOON – won three of last four, distance 8/3-2-1, 3rd off the break could be best
7 – PROSPERA – has a + EP/LP, question is can her form travel from Emerald Downs? Lone work at Parx was similar to Emerald works
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Slight Early Speed and inside out bias
8 – HE’S INCREDIBLE – a nose from winning four in a row, TLRSP#
2 – GET THE W – some better fractions early in his last, drops from 100k non graded stakes
6 – GENGHIS – another that ran better times last out but at 6 ½ f v 6f, catches a weight break
4 – MI TRES POR CIENTO – left arrow horse, interesting to me that Paco Lopez, rode here for a win two back and rides the 8 here
Race 10: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Slight Early Speed and inside out bias
4 – EASY DAY – LS – Parx 7/4-0-1, Distance 5/3-1-0, winner 4/6 no more than 1 ½ lengths from winner in two non wins
7 – ROB THE RICH – won his lone Parx start last out by 6 lengths, maintenance works between – once again Paco rides here instead of the 8 who he rode in 4 of last 7
3 – MARKET MAVEN – won his last race after more than a year on the sidelines, limited resume says round two is likely to be better
8 – HERO TIGER – consistent performer that looks like he is slipping a little from race to race, needs to run to back class
Race 11: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Speed, slight rail discount, all others fair
1 – STAR LUCK – left arrow horse, hasn’t run since June, OK works getting ready, mixed results off the break
8 – TOMATER GATOR – like the name, better early and late in last, Z Pattern
2 – STRAWBERRY RED – winner 4 of 9 on an off track, could be pacesetter
9 – YOUSHOULDBESOLUCKY – gets a weight break, been off since late August, decent work on Oct 12
Parx Race Ways to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet (Races 1-8)
Parx Race Ways to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet (Races 9,10,11)
