Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
Parx Racing Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Picks with the Professor’s Parlay of the Day
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mahoning Valley
PARX Racing Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood’ Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Cabra Chica – She finished 2nd in her last race and has the best dirt speed among today’s starters.
7 – Cajun Cousin –She won in the race before her last one and has a high winning trainer.
5 – Pearls and Heels – She can improve while returning to dirt.
3 – Bella Maria – She won in the race before her last one at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
6 – Sea Pines
Race 2
9 – Lady Bernadette – She likes the track finishing in the money in seven out of nineteen starts, likes the distance and is my choice in this wide-open affair.
5 – Rose Legacy – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and should improve while returning to a sprint.
7 – Remember This Gal– She has won the most money of any of the starters and has a good jockey.
2 – La Altenita – She has decent works.
Race 3
2 – Samaronti – He has won two out of the last three races and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
6 – Arrivederci – He is in top form and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
8 – El Hermano – He drops down 2+ classes, has a trainer who wins 28% of the races when doing so and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
3 – Open Lengths – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Farley
3 – Eclipsed Moon
Race 4
4 – Sizzling Roma – She likes the track finishing in the money in 67% of her starts, switches to a high % winning trainer and has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Congrats Answer – She finished 3rd in her last race and drops in class for this race.
8 – Leviosa – She has an early foot, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance her jockey in last 7 days has won 33% of his starts finishing in the money in 66% of the time.
1 – Anginetti – She won her last race, and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.
Alternate:
2 – Boca Royalty
7 – Beyond a Million
Race 5
4 – Majestic Creed – She drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and a has high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Acqua Bella – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has the high % winning jockey Frankie Pennington.
2 – Girl from outer space – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has a trainer who wins 55% of the time when running a horse in its 2nd route race.
5 – Dana’s Big Day – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 7 winners from 8 starters and 1 stakes winner and a jockey in last 7 days who has won 30% of his starts finishing in the money in 50% of the time.
Alternate:
3 – The Bawse’s Lady
Race 6
5 – Golden Tabby – She has won two races in a row, going for a hat trick and has a good workout on 08Oct Prx 4f ft :48© B 9/60.
1 – Plane Drunk – She won her last race at PARX Racing, trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by jockey Paco Lopez.
6 – Midtown Rose – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has won four out of five starts.
3 – Precious – She likes the track finishing in the money in 50% of her starts, winning 25% of the races and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Disco Deja Vu
2 – Out Dancing
Race 7
5 – Ruby Bleu – He has won five races in his last seven starts, including winning his last two races in a row and defeating Divine Miracle in the last one.
1 – Divine Miracle – He finished in the money in 90% of his starts winning 55% of the races at PARX Racing and has high % winning trainer Jamie Ness and high % winning jockey Frankie Pennington.
3 – Styner – He returns to PARX Racing after winning at Finger Lakes and drops in class for this race.
8 – Super Dude – He is a closer who could just run down the front runners running 2nd in his last race just missing the win.
Race 8
1 – Mendelian – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters, has a good trainer and jockey and several good workouts in a row.
3 – Sandy Q – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Can’t Complain – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 6 starters and has a good trainer and jockey.
6 – Maggie – She finished 3rd in her last race, has a high % jockey and a trainer who has one win with the only horse he has taken from maiden claiming to maiden race.
Alternate:
8 – Bodil
9 – Gold Medal Anna
Race 9
10 – Mutasallem – He has finished in the money in 80% of his starts at PARX Racing finishing 3rd vs similar in his last race and has jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (14 6-1-3).
1 – Wizky’s On the Bay – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.
3 – Edge of Glory – He comes in from Churchill Downs after winning his last race to try PARX Racing for first time and switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Cold Walker – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
9 – Cupid’s Dart
8 – Ashaab
Race 10
4 – Yodel E. A. Who – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has the highest last race speed rating.
8 – Admiral Abe – He likes the track finishing in the money in 63% of his starts, winning 33% of the races and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Five Dreams – He has won three out of the last five races and drops in class today.
2 – Wendell Fong – He drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and several good workouts in a row.
Alternate:
1 – Breezy Gust
3 – Milton the Monster
Race 11
6 – Henry the third – He has won two races in a row, going for a hat trick and has a good trainer and jockey.
1 – Good Culture – He drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 40% of the races when he drops a horse off a claim.
8 – Margin of Air – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and should improve at the shorter distance.
5 – Formal Order –He switches to a high % winning jockey and can improve while returning to a route.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Outside Speed
7 – CAJUN COUSIN – drops backs to a level where he won his last by 4 ½ lengths
1 – CABRA CHICA – finished second as the favorite in her first race at Parx, cutting back could be the difference today
4 – VANISHING FAITH – could be the pacesetter and ran better fractions at 6 ½ f vs 6
6 – SEA PINES – not much different than the 5 but has more EP
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Outside Speed
5 – ROSE LEGACY – better times at 1m70y on turf vs dirt, back to dirt tr Juan Guerrero winner 7/21 on the turf to dirt switch
9 – LADY BERNADETTE – should be the pacesetter and ran better 2/4f pace# and times in last
4 – CALL THE PO PO – has the top Parx numbers by a decent margin and needs to be a lot better in R2 off the bench
8 – SHANIA SEA – has a +edge at 4f, but lone win was at Penn, then got blown out at Delaware.
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed fair PPs with a bonus 8+
6 – ARRIVEDERCI – Left Arrow Horse and lone PC
2 – SAMARONTI – TLRSP# and has at times has superior LP#s
8 – EL HERMANO – looking for more in 3rd off the break as he drops multiple classes
4 – FARLEY – Track and class dropper that was better ATB in last
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with Rail Bias, all else fair
4 – SIZZLING ROMA – 1st off the claim after being better ATB in last with TLRSP#
8 – LEVIOSA – has a 2/4f EP edge and won her only race at the distance w2w – looking to do the same today
6 – CONGRATS ANSWER – tr Michael Pino must be looking for a better start in 2nd off the claim w/ 1st time blinkers
1 – ANGINETTI – gets the rail edge after running a Z pattern in last
Race 5: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Inside Speed
4 – MAJESTIC CREED – takes a massive drop in class with TLRSP# so much higher than anything run by any other
6 – ACQUA BELLA – strange race last out, competed early, faded and then came back late
3 – THE BAWSE’S LADY – Left Arrow Horse looking for another major step forward in 3rd career start
5 – DANA’S BIG DAY – 1st time starter without much to beat
Raec 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Speed Posts 2-7
5 – GOLDEN TABBY – Parx Killer with 4 wins and third in five efforts
1 – PLANE DRUNK – has a +LP advantage with TLRSP# and top EP/LP Combo – intesting that Paco rides here and not the 2
6 – MIDTOWN ROSE – starts fast and gets more courageous the longer she is upfront
2 – OUT DANCING – better fractions and better ATB in last
Race 7: 1 Mile – Bias: 1-7 speed, discount 8+
5 – RUBY BLEU – likely pacesetter but doesn’t need it as EP, not much from winning 8/10
1 – DIVINE MIRACLE – distance 4/3-0-1 but hasn’t finished in front of top pick in last three, did beat him 8 back
3 – STYNER – dropping off a Flakes win – 2nd in lone race at Parx with career best SP#
8 – SUPER DUDE – significant late race improvement in last outing
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Speed Posts 2-7
1 – MENDELIAN – Strong works and strong pedigree, gets a weight break
8 – BODIL – both the 8 and 10 trained by Juan Avila and have very strong works at Monmouth
10 – SHAKING RAGS –
3 – SANDY Q – dropping from 100K MSW in career race #2, a 22% winner for tr Robert Reid, Jr
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with Rail Bias, all else fair
1 – WIZKY’S ON THE BAY – ran much better times last out a 6 ½f v 5f
10 – MUTASALLEM – ran similar 6f fractions at 1 mile compared to 7f
4 – COLD WALKER – won his maiden in the last race with his career best effort and could improve in race 2 off the bench
9 – CUPID’S DART – last race was better than it looks with better 2/4f numbers
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Speed Posts 2-7
4 – YODEL E. A. WHO – there appears to be plenty of pace here and he has ++ LP Edge
8 – ADMIRAL ABE – likely pacesetter and gets bold with lead in the lane
7 – FIVE DREAMS – drops in class after running better times at 6 1/2f vs 5 ½ in a 100K NGST
1 – BREEZY GUST – Left Arrow and lone PC horse in the field
Race 11: 1 Mile – Bias: 1-7 speed, discount 8+
1 – GOOD CULTURE – track dropping lone P horse with +LP edge
10 – MIDLANER – jy/tr combo of Andy Henandez and Michael Moore won 6/14 with +3.76 ROI
8 – MARGIN OF AIR – was much better in the first half mile if his last start
9 – ROCKIN FREEBEE – Left Arrow Horse that’s won two of three at PARX
PARX Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet (Races 1-9)
PARX Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet (Races 10 & 11)
