Sorry that I haven’t been able to put up a show since returning from New York, came home with the Covid and just not close to right yet. Hopefully, tomorrow.
Saratoga Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – Jumpers
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs, 42 races, 37 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: 1-3 slight penalty, 4+ a little bonus
2 – O’TROUBLE – LS – let’s try to beat a heavy favorite, is the only horse that has enough pace to challenge the 1, could be in peak form 3rd off the bench
1 – GREELEY AND BEN – has a +4f pace edge and the top LP, definitely the one to beat, but likely to be well below even money 1/5?
4 – QUICK RETURN – got claimed in last, stays in claiming ranks for new trainer Joe Sharp, a 32% winning angle
5 – CASALSA – bombed in his last on grass, drops in class, goes back to dirt and runs well on an off track, expecting rain all day
3 – WINNING DRIVE
6 – MANIFEST DESTINY
Race 3 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 6 races, 100% speed, 1 w2w – PP: all winners inside 3
6 – MOMMASGOTTARUN – 1st off the claim for Brad Cox, doesn’t claim that many, just 60 so far, wins at 27% 1st off the claim and at 29% off the claim and dropping
2 – WICKED HAPPY – tends to run well fresh off the bench, like today, a win, 2nd and 3rd in last three, OK works getting prepped
3 – PERFECT PROVISION – ships in from Gulfstream and drops multiple classes for tr Joseph Saffie, Jr a 34% winner
7 – BACKED BY GOLD – showed a lot of early improvement last out before fading hard at the end, worried they might be peak #s, if not, could contend from start to finish
1 – HANDLE THE TRUTH
4 – KEEN DANCER
Race 4 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf – 13 races, 10 won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 bias, 4-7 big discount, slight discount 8+
1 Mile Dirt – 15 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 bias, discount 4-7, no winners 8+
5 – KEMBA – left arrow horse with much better fractions last out, tr Raymond Handal switches to Joel Rosario – EP#s put her close to the front if it’s on dirt, but also has the ability to come from off the pace on turf
4 – TALES OF MAKENNA – has run 2 strong races off the bench and 2 not so strong in her limited career, she has a +LP advantage, almost ++, but her lone win was w2w
7 – FRENCH FRANC – is dropping in class and could be better in 2nd off the sidelines, better 2/4f pace #s in last
8 – MISS INVINCIBLE – going to take a flyer hoping to cash back end of exacta/trifecta/superfecta – must much, much better ATB in her last start, TLRSP#
6 – I’M BUZZY
1 – FREEDOM MACHINE
3 – SYNONYMOUS
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 42 races, 37 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: 1-3 slight penalty, 4+ a little bonus
8 – JUSTIFYING – eyeballing the July 29, 4frulong work of 47.4 at Toga, tie for the best on any for this crew – IMHO
5 – MIJA – also ran a 47.4 on August 7th, close to a bullet and go, 6/129
6 – PADMA – a couple on nice 3f works in 36 and small change suggest she’ll get off to a quick start
4 – SOUPER SLEWS CASH – Eddie C angle, bullet then maintenance and then to the track
2 – IMPLICATED
7 – BINSKY
Race 6 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 23 races, 15 won off the pace, 4 w2w – PP: Inside 3 bias, 4+ a little discount
1 Mile – 15 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 bias, discount 4-7, no winners 8+
6 – ANALOGY – is versatile, can run from the front and the back, expecting more in the 3d after a layoff
8 – MACKILLOP – Pratt and Brown winning at 35% together, 1st time gelded, OK works getting ready
1 – EMBOITE – won last start, getting maiden win in 1sr run on Toga, a couple of decent works since
2 – MO REWARDS – improved in 2n career start, might be better in round 2 off the bench, good workout between races
11 (MTO) – WARRIOR JOHNY
4 – LEGENDS CAN’T DIE
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs, 42 races, 37 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: 1-3 slight penalty, 4+ a little bonus
1 – RISK FREE – we’ll take a shot on an alpha angle, the bullet and go for 1st time starters
6 – U GLOW GIRL – those EP #s in debut could be hard to compete with, BTN FAV, trainer Brad Cox rebounds at 31%
7 – CRYPTO MAMA – tr Kelly Breen wins 24% of 2nd career starts, a decent work between races
8 – HAPPY WARRIOR – like the July 29 work at 4f of 47.2
4 – OH DONNA
5 – AMAZON BARBIE
Race 8 – 1 Mile – 15 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 bias, discount 4-7, no winners 8+
6 – MIA BEA STAR – TLRSP# and has a +LP advantage, TOGA 4/0-3-0
1 – U GUYS ARE NO FUN – was better in the first ½ mile, slides to the high win rate rail
5 – CARAMOCHA – got to toss out the last, should be better in 2nd off the bench at a distance she likes 5/1-2-1
2 – SILKEN DOLLAR – has a +EP edge, going long for the first time, should accentuate EP, tr Richard Schlosberg 18% winner in 1st routes
3 – GRINGOTTS
4 – SUNSET LOUISE
Race 9 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 23 races, 15 won off the pace, 4 w2w – PP: Inside 3 bias, 4+ a little discount
1 Mile – 15 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 bias, discount 4-7, no winners 8+ –
8 – DAKOTA GOLD – appears to catch an EZ field here, could be in peak form in 3rd after a layoff
3 – SHINSUN – has a ++ LP edge, almost a +++, in a field that doesn’t have strong EP#s
5 – MARINARA SAUCED – is going long for the 2nd time – a 41% winner for tr Chad Brown
10 – BARREL OF QUESTS – was better ATB In his last, peak #, but last peak was followed by just minor regression
1 – TETRAGRAMMATON
4 – BORN DANCER
Race 10 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf – 13 races, 10 won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 bias, 4-7 big discount, slight discount 8+
1 Mile Dirt – 15 races, 11 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 bias, discount 4-7, no winners 8+-
7 – FUNWHILEITLASTED – missed as BTN FAV with TLRSP#, tr Brittany Russell rebounds at 36%, TOGA 1/0-1-0
10 – OCEAN AIR – Left Arrow horse, TOGA 2/1-0-1, been off since October, been OK off a layoff
6 – CAFE FLEUR – dropping into claiming ranks for the 1st time, tr Chad Brown scores at 38% 1st time claiming
2 – MORE MANGO – down in class after running better 2/4f pace numbers in last, gets a weight break today
4 – DIXIE CANNON
9 – PRINCESS PINKY
Saratoga Pace Worksheet
