Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Saratoga Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Picks with the Professor’s MLB Play of the Day
Terry’s Delaware Park Best Bet
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Delaware Park
Saratoga Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Race 1
4 – Dark Storm– He has finished in the money in 100% of his races at Saratoga, winning one of the starts.
6 – Bear Alley He has won two races in a row at Churchill Downs, has the highest last race speed rating and a trainer who wins 36% of the time with a horse who won their last claiming race.
9 – Kershaw – He ran 7th in his last race after lots of trouble so I am throwing that race out, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-2-3).
7 – Giocare – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at Belmont Park and was claimed by a trainer who wins 18% of the time in the 1st race claiming a horse.
Alternate:
3 – Auburn Hills
8 – Royal Tryst
Race 2
6 – Chocolate Gelato – She is a first-time starter who was purchased for $475,000, her Sire wins 19% of the races with the 1st time starters and, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance – She has a good 5F workout on Jul-07 and a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-1-0).
1 – Half a Chance – She ran 2nd vs similar in her debut race and the rail post is winning at a 20% clip.
4 – Thirty Thou Kelvin – She is a first-time starter whose dam has 1 winner from 1 starter and the Sire wins 36% of the races with the 1st time starters.
5 – Two Minute Drill – She is a first-time starter whose dam has 4 winners from 4 starter and a good workout on 03Jly Cdt 4f ft :48.3 Bg5/17.
Alternate:
2 – Spelterini
3 – Will Be Famous
Race 3
6 – Attentive – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, has a trainer who wins 25% of the time when dropping a horse off a claim and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-2-3).
4 – High Tide – He was beaten by only a length vs tougher in his last start, drops in class today and the trainer wins 17% of the time when bringing a horse back after a 46–90-day break.
3 – Takafumi – He has finished in the money in the last three races, winning one and if the weather moves it to the main track, he has a good record on an off track.
7 – Tiberius Mercurius – He has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
Race 4
3 – Remote – He finished 2nd vs similar in his last race at today’s distance and the trainer wins 25% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
8 – Good Soldier – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, the longer distance offers hope for improvement, and he has a good 3F workout on Jul-10.
7 – Afjan – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, his breeding suggests he will like the grass and his Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters and 1 Turf winner.
6 – Snow’s Island – He finished 3rd vs similar and has done well at today’s distance.
Alternate:
5 – Grand Cay
Race 5
6 – Cold Walker – He finished 2nd vs similar, his trainer wins 33% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and may improve with Lasix being added.
8 – Hereby – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has a trainer who wins 25% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and his trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0).
2 – Catching Cupid – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Tommy Gun – He has the highest last race speed rating, he drops in class today, may improve with blinkers added today and has a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-2-3).
Alternate:
7 – The Institute
3 – Majority Partner
Race 6
4 – Just Say When – He has finished in the money in all three of his career races, winning one of the races and running 2nd in the last race – The shorter distance will help, and he has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-2-3).
9 – King Moonracer – He finished 2nd in last race, and he has a trainer who wins 17% of the time with a horse in its 2nd race off a layoff.
5 – Fast N Fearious – He has finished in the money in four out of his five career races, winning two of the races and he has a trainer who wins 29% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
8 – Stanhope – He has finished in the money in four out of his six races this year and the shorter distance should help.
Alternate:
4 – Life Changer
2 – Dark Timber
Race 7
7 – Tarabi – She has finished in the money in all four of her career races, winning one of the races and running 2nd in her last race – She should improve while returning to a route and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Goddess of Fire – She has finished in the money in five out of her seven career races, winning one of the races – She had a disappointing finish in her last race a Grade 1 event after being bumped and drops in class today for this race.
9 – A Mo Reay – She won her last race at Laurel Park, and she has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-1-0).
6 – Favor – She has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
Alternate:
4 – Angitude
2 – Gina Romantica
Race 8
6 – Customer List – She stumbled in her last race and finished 5th, winning the race before, drops in class today, could improve with Lasix added, has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0) and has two bullet workouts in a row at Saratoga during this month.
3 – Myriskyaffair – She has finished in the money in four of her five career races, winning the last one at Belmont Park, has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
12 – Linda’s Gift – She is a closer who closed in her last race to finish 3rd and she has jockey Flavien Prat in the irons.
1 – Canisy – She ran 2nd as the favorite vs similar in last race but her trainer wins 25% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
Alternate:
2 – Bravo Kitten
11 – Wonka
Race 9
1 – Just Cindy – She won her debut race as the heavily bet favorite, the rail post is winning at 18% clip, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-2-3).
9 – Summer Promise – She won her debut race at Churchill Downs; her best dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a bullet workout on 03Jly CD 4f ft :46 B 1/97.
5 – Janis Joplin – She ran 3rd in her debut race after getting a slow start, she is trained by Mark Casse and has a jockey change to Flavien Prat.
8 – Musicmansandy – She won her debut race at Delaware Park and the trainer wins 26% of the time when shipping horse in to race at a track.
Alternate:
3 – Adora
Race 10
5 – Fast Corey – She likes to go to the front and lead all the way to win, she is trained by Brad Cox and has a jockey change to Manny Franco.
2 – Highway Queen – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has some good workouts in preparation for this race.
4 – Rigby – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a trainer who wins 21% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
1 – Magniloquent – The rail post is winning at a 19% clip and the trainer wins 32% of the time in claiming races.
Alternate:
11 – Train to Artemus
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 1/8 Miles, 58 races, 41 won by speed, 20 w2w – PP: small rail penalty, all else fair
6 – BEAR ALLEY – lone EP horse in the field with four E types, should be right behind the leader and has some of the best LP#s
9 – KERSHAW – top LP#s in the field, gets top jockey Irad, plenty of pace in here and should be able to pick off fading speed
7 – GIOCARE – slightly better final time last out at 1 1/16 m on mud vs 1 1/16 m fast, claimed by tr Orlando Noda and has two maintenance works since the last race
3 – AUBURN HILLS – could be the pacesetter at a distance where 34% went w2w last year
Race 2 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 31 races, 27 won by speed, 12 w2w – PP: decent rail bias, 2-7 fair, 8+ penalty
1 – HALF A CHANCE – only horse with experience, tr Wesley Ward is good with the babies, should get off to a hot start again and the one they will have to pass
6 – CHOCOLATE GELATO – Pletcher and Irad hit at 35% together, good works getting ready, $475k horse
3 – WILL BE FAMOUS – likely to be a price, but the June 18 4f work – fastest of 67 – might be the best work of any
4 – THIRTY THOU KELVIN – pedigree numbers are the best for the distance, works are OK
Race 3 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 22 races, 13 won by speed, 6 w2w – PP: rail stinks, 2-7 a bonus, 8+ is worse than the rail
4 – HIGH TIDE – is running at his lowest level since last year at the SPA where he won, record says he runs well fresh and has some good works getting ready
9 – GRAND JOURNEY – ran a really sharp race in his first after a 2 month rest, but it wasn’t a peak #, so he still has room to be better in 2nd off the bench
6 – ATTENTIVE – has the most late octane in this race, bullet and go and you just can’t count out Irad Ortiz on NYRA tracks
7 – TIBERIUS MERCURIUS
Race 4 – 1 3/8 Miles Inner Turf, 6 races, 100% won off the pace, non from the rail, 1 from 2/3, all the rest 4-7, 8+ no wins
3 – REMOTE – was better early in his last, finished 2nd at the distance, so you know he can handle the distance, had some issues in his last, a clean trip might be all that’s needed
7 – AFJAN – expecting more in the 3rd off the sidelines and first on grass, solid breeding for the distance and surface
5 – GRAND CAY is the lone PC horse in the field, so he can go forward if the pace is too slow or close if it’s too hot
2 – TIMO – 1st time starter and is a Forrest Gump chocolate horse, you just don’t know what you are going to get when the gates open
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 64 races, 50 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: small bias inside 3, bigger bonus 8+, 4-7 underperform
2 – CATCHING CUPID – drops in class, has some early pop, improved his LP last out and looking for improvement in R2 after a layoff
4 – TOMMY GUN – should be the pacesetter at a distance/surface where 42% went w2w last year
7 – THE INSTITUTE – can pressure, can close, his pace #s put him towards the front, tr Horacio De Paz hitting at 41% in 17 on the MSW to MCL drop
3 – MAJORITY PARTNER – another pressure horse that’s dropping from MSW to MCL, nice bullet worn in Saratoga mud on July 6th
Race 6 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, 59 races, 34 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: strong rail and inside 3 bias, 4-7 discount, 8+ a little better than fair
4 – JUST SAY WHEN – should get out of the gate in a hurry and be on/near the lead all the way around the track
7 – COLD AS HELL – hasn’t run well on the grass yet, but his off track record says he should, has some of the most EP and has the best LP#s for the frontrunners
9 – KING MOONRACER – a ton of speed to chase for horse with the most late kick, just missed in his last and should be as good maybe better in his second start off the break
8 – STANHOPE – could be the leader by a little at the ½, some regression in his last, but probably has the most upside in the field
Race 7 – 1 Mile, 64 races, 46 won by speed, 20 w2w – PP: small rail penalty all else fair
7 – TARABI – has been the most consistent high-end performer in this crew, ran a decent 3rd in the BC versus Echo Zulu, could take a nice step forward in her second start since the BC
1 – GODDESS OF FIRE – ran a pair of 2nds in a couple of G2 before a rough trip in the Kentucky Oaks, workouts are OK getting ready and has a win at the SPA in her debut
9 – A MO REAY – never missed the board at 1 mile, 4/2-1-1, tuned up with and EZ OC 62.5 at Laurel, has some EP but also one of the best late moves in the field
4 – ANGITUDE – could be the pacesetter or sit right off #5 in her first route, 2 for two on a fast track, extending her lead in both Ws
6 – FAVOR
Race 8 – 1 1/8 Miles Inner Turf, 6 races, 4 won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ best, 2-7 underperform
3 – MYRISKYAFFAIR – didn’t miss by much in a G2 last out, really stepped on the gas late, yet to catch a firm turf course, so there is room to improve
1 – CANISY – is a ½ length from being undefeated in her two starts, she made big moves late in both, the extra 1/16 mile today should help
13 – SANTA GIULIA
9 – CANDY LIGHT – this is the one that might be able to stay close to the front and has the nearly as much LP as the closers. The thing is, all be 3 horses are closers and the two front runners tend to fade hard
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs, 64 races, 50 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: small bias inside 3, bigger bonus 8+, 4-7 underperform
A bunch of 2 yo coming off their debut races, just about anything can happen
6 – ME AND MY SHADOW – has the most late pace of the front runners, but most of these will compete for the lead
1 – JUST CINDY – will likely sit right behind the pace and run by late if the pace is too hot, which it probably will be
9 – SUMMER PROMISE – drew off in her debut, like that, and has a bullet work since
3 – ADORA – ran off as the 4/5 at Woodbine in her debut, really focused on horses that extended at the end of their debuts
Race 10 – Race 6 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, 59 races, 34 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: strong rail and inside 3 bias, 4-7 discount, 8+ a little better than fair
10 – DAME TIME – LS – should be in the mix for the lead but has the most late punch, I like Trevor on horses where he can save some for later
5 – FAST COREY – ran crazy fast fractions in her last and should have a bit more stamina in her 2nd start off the bench
6 – ABUSE OF POWER – taking a big class drop, ran better times at 7f turf verses 5 ½ f turf, 3rd after a layoff offer promise of upside
2 – HIGHWAY QUEEN – is the only horse in the field that can close or go up front, a little better early and late in her last, loves 3rd – 14/1-1-6 all six in 9 on turf
