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Horse Racing Today – Saratoga Picks – Thursday, July 21, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

Rich is still solo and discusses…

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YouTube for all of the day’s MLB Plays https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIkiB-NK_ho

Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Delaware Park

Saratoga Racetrack Horse Racing Tips and Commentary

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1 – 6 Furlongs, 8 races, 100% won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 4-7 penalty, 8+ fair

6 – UP TO THE MARK – the workouts for this 450k horse are the best of the bunch

3 – INSOMNIAC – workouts are close to the 2, but a little slower than the 6, we’ll take the better odds

2 – FRAT PACK – the lone SPA workout was in line with the 6 horse, but Flavien is off to a slow SPA start

5 – CITIZEN MACK – tough call over the 1, but the 1 has regressed in every race and at almost all levels and the workouts here are strong coming in and gets 1st Lasix

 

Race 2 – 1 1/8 Miles, 4 races, 3 won by speed, 0 w2w – PP: none from the rail, 1 from 2/4, 4/7 and 2 from 8+

Tough Race, can make a case for 5/6

1 – GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS – has the best Toga numbers and has proven it can handle the distance, could improve slightly in R2 off the bench

5 – PERCEIVED – is a pressure horse with the strongest LP#, he ran faster fractions in his last

4 – NO BURN – is probably going to be on the lead at the 6f mark (3/4 mile), regressed a little bit last out

6 – PALACE COUP – likely to run a really big race or a really bad race, resume says the odds favor a good one on the 2nd start after a brief layoff

 

Race 3 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 5 races, all won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: no rail, 1 from 2/3, 3 from 4-7, 1 from 8+

6 – ST. JOE LOUIS – distance 6/1-5-0, tr Chad Brown winning claimers at 38%, horse should be better in r2 off the bench

1 – I AM THE LAW – expecting rain and an off track, 4/1-2-1, won last on the good track by 5 ¼, not the biggest fan of MCL risers, would downgrade on a fast track

7 – AL’S PRINCE

4 – RESILIENT COURAGE

 

Race 4 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 3 races 100% w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 1 from 2/3, 1 from 4-7

5 – V MART – LS – bullets galore getting ready, surrounded by a very good works and few maintenances, Godolphin horse

8 – TYVER – I am going to take a serious flier here, pass if you want, the July 4th work was as good as any in this field and Eric Cancel is way overdue, gamblers fallacy

1 – RUN POPPY – of the experienced horse, probably has the best EP at a distance where 3/3 went w2w so far – 90 cent favorite in debut

3 – FORBIDDEN SECRET – Eddie C angle, bullet work, then a maintenance, and then to the track

 

Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 8 races, 100% won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 4-7 penalty, 8+ fair

2 – AIDANIKE – better fractions at 7f than at 6f in last, should sit off the leader and has the 2ns best LP#s and try to run off late

4 – GREATEST LOVE – Tr Gustavo Rodriguez must like or maybe not like this horse, reclaimed after being claimed away 2 races back, but then drops off the claim – but the drop isn’t concerning as the purse is 36k

5 – DOMINEER – likely going to be the pilot of this race early on, gets out of the gates in a hurry, fast 3f work – she’ll likely finish the job if she can hold the lead into the stretch

7 – GUNS BLAZING – if the race is on an off track, 4/3-1-0, really good work since being claimed, gets a weight break, l like the combo of speed and carrying lighter weight

 

Race 6 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 3 races 100% w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 1 from 2/3, 1 from 4-7 

3 – BARZINI – like the 3f work of 36 and the three works before that, like Luis Saez on 1st timers

4 – A WESTERN YARN – Trevor is yet to win, last workout was nice, and the May 26th work suggests he’ll get out of the gates quickly, maybe Trever’s O goes

5 – IN DETAIL – workouts are OK, it’s either this first timer of the 8, but the 8 faded at 4 ½ furlongs and today is 5 ½ furlongs

8 – JEREMY’S JET

 

Race 7 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, 5 races, 4 won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: none from the rail, 1 from 2/3, 4-7 three winners and 1 from 8+

6 – BIG PACKAGE – TLRSP# and has the most late punch at a distance that’s surprisingly favored closers. TOGA/Distance/Surface 3/2-1-0

2 – PRINCIPLED STAND – led into the stretch vs top choice in his last but faded, cutting back a ½ f could help, strong 2/4f improvement in last

4 – IT’S A GAMBLE – doesn’t run many short sprints, just one and it was at the SPA and ended in the winners’ circle, better fractions last out and has plenty of LP

5 – ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS – left arrow horse and could be on the lead from the gate open, is the lone EP horse in the field

 

Race 8 – 1 1/8 Miles, 4 races, 3 won by speed, 0 w2w – PP: none from the rail, 1 from 2/4, 4/7 and 2 from 8+

3 CARAGATE – was beaten as the favorite in her last but still ran the highest speed figure. She ran better late in her last outing and could be better in her third start after a layoff.

1 U GUYS ARE NO FUN – comes in from Finger Lakes, not a big fan of horses moving from a lower-level track to a first-tier track, but trainer Jeremiah hits at 25% with shippers.

5 STIMULUS CHECK – is another Finger Lakes shipper but has a win in her lone Saratoga start. Let’s try to add a longshot price to this ticket.

7 – MIA BEA STAR – ran similar fractions at 1 1/16 miles as she did at 7f, better 2/4f pace#s in last, 2nd best LP#s

 

Race 9 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 5 races, all won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: no rail, 1 from 2/3, 3 from 4-7, 1 from 8+

4 – DAKOTA GOLD – top EP and LP, left arrow horse, winner of 3/4, short resume says a better race in round 2 off the bench

3 – COINAGE – was better in 2/4f pace numbers in his last, likely a better effort in in race two after a layoff, lone EP horse in the field

7 – PRACTICE SQUAD – never missed the money in 4 at the distance, 4/1-2-1, has the 2nd best LP#s in the field

2 – SUNDAESWITHSANDY

 

Race 10 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, 5 races, 4 won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: none from the rail, 1 from 2/3, 4-7 three winners and 1 from 8+

5 – MARGARET BURBIDGE – tr Wesley Ward hit at 30% with 1st timers, and he’s good at these short sprint type races

3 – FACTOR THAT – EP#s in debut were tops here, is she improves in race number #2, could hold the lead to the wire

9 – GEORGEES SPIRIT – workouts are solid getting ready, trainer Jorge Abreu hit at 20% with first timers

7 – STRUT – bullets galore getting ready for this start, bullet and go is an alpha angle

Saratoga Pace Worksheet

Saratoga Pace Worksheet 7-21-2022

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