Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry is back…
Horse Racing Picks
Saratoga Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Picks with the Professor’s MLB Play of the Day
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Delaware Park
Saratoga Hores Racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Freddy Flintshire – He won his last race at Saratoga and has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Scorpion’s Revenge – He won his last race and likes the distance.
6 – Theocrat – He won his last race at Colonial Downs and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Perfect Tapatino – He likes the turf finishing in the money in thirteen out of thirty-two starts, winning seven.
Alternate:
3 – Decisive Triumph
2 – Fast Vision
Race 2
3 – Gambling Girl – She Finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, receiving the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters. She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Maddie’s Grace – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start and has high % winning jockey Manny Franco.
1 – Sweet Blush – She is a first-time starter whose dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, a trainer wins 27% of 2YO races and a good 4F workout on Aug-19.
7 – August Bloom – She is a first-time starter whose dam has 4 winners from 4 starters and 1 stakes winner, has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-0-0) and a good 4F workout on Aug-17.
Alternate:
6 – The Splendid One
2 – In Good Trouble
Race 3
4 – Built to Last – He drops in class today and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
12 – Tommy Gun – He finished 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, has a high % winning jockey, and should improve at the shorter distance.
13 – Full Complement – Drops in class today
11 – Kingstown –He has a 2nd in three starts and drops in class today.
Race 4
3 – Cathedral Beach – He won his last race and received the highest last race speed.
2 – Brawndo – He has won two out of the last three races, finishing 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and the trainer wins 28% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.
1- Never Early – He has won three out of seven starts this year and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Zen Master – He finished 3rd in his last race and can improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
1/A – The Met
4 – Cole Spur
Race 5
1A – Al’s Prince – He won his last race at Saratoga and the trainer wins 27% of the races with claim repeaters.
5 – Roderick – He is a speed horse, drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer in the last 14 days has won two out of four starts.
3 – Good Culture – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and the distance will not be a problem.
4 – Forty Two Ace – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-0-1) and a good 5F workout (Aug-18).
Alternate:
1 – Corkman
Race 6
3 – Under Oath – He has won one out of three career starts.
11 – Overbore – May improve while returning to a sprint.
13- Risk Profile – He Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race.
9 – His Time– He May improve at the shorter distance.
Race 7
9 – Drakon – He led in his last race a 1-1/16 until fading at the very end and now cuts back to a mile – He has the highest last race speed rating, and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – The Prince’s Spur – He drops in class today and his trainer wins 27% of the races when going from maiden to maiden claiming races.
7 – Secret Cargo – He drops in class today, his trainer/ jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (16 4-1-2) and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-18.
6 – Gut Feeling – He finished 4th in his last race only losing by 3-lengths and his trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-0-0).
Alternate:
2 – Mad Magic
1 – Freeze Pop
Race 8
3 – Boldish – He finished in the money in two out of two starts at Saratoga, winning one and his trainer/ jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (10 3-0-1).
6 – Lastchanceatglory – He won his last race at Saratoga, received the highest last race speed and his trainer wins 19% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
2 – Crypto Cash – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race as the favorite, but his trainer wins 50% when bringing a beaten favorite back to race.
5 – Lil Commissioner – He won his last race at Belmont Park and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Mount Travers
1 – Musical America
Race 9
2 – Bluegrass Parkway – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and the distance will not be a problem.
3- Tide of the Sea – He is trained by a trainer who wins 32% of the races after claiming a horse and he has won at 1/1/2 miles.
5 – Sa’ad – He is back to the regular turf after running in two steeple chase races – He won his last race on the turf at 1-1/2 miles and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Oceans Map – He just missed running 2nd on the turf in his last race and has shown in the past that he should be able to go the distance.
Alternate:
1 – Girl Dad
6 – Hieroglyphics
Race 10
13 – Chaysenbryn – She Won last race at Belmont.
12 – Kerik – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race.
14 – Maybe Later –She Ran 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race.
2 – Mia At Midnight – She finished 3rd in last race.
Alternate:
1A – Mariah’s Fortune
Rich’s Ranks
Race 2 – 7 Furlongs, 30 races, 23 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: 1 fair, 2/3 discount, 4-7 small bonus, 8+ fair
5 – MADDIE’S GRACE – going to try and beat the 1-1 ml favorite, EP+ edge out of the gate, could be better in 2nd career start
3 – GAMBLING GIRL – TLRSP#, was better in the middle of start #2,
1 – SWEET BLUSH – decent works getting ready, tr William Morey wins at 23% Debut MSW
7 – AUGUST BLOOM – almost a bullet and go, 2/15 at 4f, 49
Race 3 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, 50 races, 50/50, 9 w2w – PP: inside out bias, 1-3 bonus, 4-7 fair, 8+ major penalty
4 – BUILT TO LAST – + 2/4f pace edge over the rest, MSW dropper, better numbers first ½ mile last out
12 – TOMMY GUN – TLRSP#, better fractions last out, could continue on the up path in 3rd off the bench
11 – KINGSTOWN – should be right off the pace, just missed at this level two races back
13 – FULL COMPLEMENT – MSW Dropper, gets a weight break today, two good works since last
Race 4 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 9 races, 100 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: 1-3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, no winners 8+
3 – CATHEDRAL BEACH – won last by 6 ¾ lengths, claimed tr Edward Barker wins at 21%
1 – NEVER EARLY – gets high win rate rail, weight break, fast track 8/3-1-1
6 – SILIPO – tonight’s guest, Eric Cancel, resume says expect a big move forward in 2nd after a layoff
5 – ZEN MASTER – was much better late, decent work between races
Race 5 – 1 Mile, 21 races, 15 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: small inside 3 bias, 4-7 fair, 8+ no winners
1A – AL’S PRINCE – staying in the claiming ranks off a win, tr Jeffrey Englehart 27% claim repeater
3 – GOOD CULTURE – should be better in 3rd after a layoff, was better in the last ½ of his last start
5 – RODERICK – left arrow horse, has a lot of EP#s but tends to fade late
1 – CORKMAN – rides the high win rate rail, better in fist half of last, 1st off the claim 19% winner for tr Orlando Noda
2 – AIR SHOW
Race 6 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, 50 races, 50/50, 9 w2w – PP: inside out bias, 1-3 bonus, 4-7 fair, 8+ major penalty
11 – OVERBORE – 2nd off a layoff, Wesley Ward hits at 29%, fast dirt 3/0-1-2
3 – UNDER OATH – blew a tire in his last, 7 wide, move to the inside today helps
9 – HIS TIME – benefits from all the scratches and should challenge for the lead all the way around the track
13 – RISK PROFILE
Race 7 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 27 races, 15 won off the pace, 6 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 almost fair, 8+ penalty
8 – THE PRINCE’S SPUR – drops from MSW $105k, tr Todd Pletcher hits at 27%, 28% 1st time MCL
9 – DRAKON – has a + 2f edge, tr Brittany Russell hits 32% MCL, could be better 3rd off the break
5 – PROVEN HOPE – MSW dropper going long for the 1st time, good works getting ready to return
2 – MAD MAGIC – Joel Rosario gets off the 6 to ride here, 1st off the claim for tr Charlton Baker 23%
Race 8 – 7 Furlongs, 30 races, 23 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: 1 fair, 2/3 discount, 4-7 small bonus, 8+ fair
6 – LASTCHANCEATGLORY – 3sp# increases, was much better late last out, dropping off the claim – winner 4/7 for trainer Thomas Morley
3 – BOLDISH – Toga 2/1-0-1, distance 3/1-0-2, some decent works getting ready for first race since Jan 17
5 – LIL COMMISSIONER – fast track 14/6-0-5, was better in the 2nd half of last race
2 – CRYPTO CASH – strong 2022, 8/2-4-1, been burning money lately as favorite in last 3, only 1 win
Race 9 – 1 5/8 Miles Turf, no races
5 – SA’AD – if he can run back to US debut, EZ work, would have +EP and +LP advantages
3 – TIDE OF THE SEA – 2nd off the claim for tr Thomas Morley, a 32% winner
2 – BLUEGRASS PARKWAY – tie for TLRSP#, could be better in 3rd off after layoff
4 – OCEANS MAP – just missed last out with better 2/4 pace#s,
Race 10 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 27 races, 15 won off the pace, 6 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 almost fair, 8+ penalty
9 – SOLIB – has a +, almost ++ pace edge at 4f, 2nd off the claim for Joe Sharp – 22% winner, decent work since last race
14 – MAYBE LATER – much better fractions last out, probably prefers it to be a little wet
4 – LADY OF THOROTON – real strong in 2nf half of last race, better ATB
13 – CHAYSENBRYN – looks like the best of the rest
Saratoga Pace Worksheet
