Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Saratoga Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Terry’s Finger Lakes Best Bet
Picks with the Professor’s MLB Play of the Day –
Full Picks on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FDlUmwrlYw&feature=youtu.be
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Finger Lakes
Saratoga Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Perfect Tapatino – He won his last race and likes the turf winning seven out of twenty-five starts.
5 – Howyabud – He won his debut race as the heavily bet favorite.
7 – Burn The Evidence – He finished 2nd in his debut race.
3 – Going Country – He likes the turf finishing in the money in four out of six starts, winning two.
Alternate:
4 – Lydford
6 – Decisive Triumph
Race 2
1A – Glittering Prize – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race receiving the highest last race speed rating and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-0-2).
7 – Darn That Song – She finished 3rd in her last race and switches to a high % winning jockey.
8 – Dorothy’s the Boss – She can improve while returning to dirt, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and the trainer wins 34% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
6 – Frosty Invasion – She finished 3rd vs tougher in last race, drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
2 – Laughter
4 – Ace Up Her Sleeve
Race 3
2 – Printrack – He finished in the money in three out of five starts this year, winning one, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a trainer who wins 26% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
5 – Never Early – He has won three out of his last six races, has the highest last race speed rating, highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Leddy – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race while experiencing trouble during the race. He can improve with Lasix added and has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races with 1st time Lasix.
3 – Ready to March – Finished 2nd in his last race and has a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (18 5-2-1).
Alternate:
1 – Raw Courage
Race 4
5 – Golden Voice – She finished in the money in four out of five starts this year, winning three and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Adelaide Miss – She has a change in jockeys and drops in class today.
3 – War Canoe – She has finished in the money in four out of eight starts at Saratoga, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Charge Account – She finished 4th in her last race beaten only 3/4 lengths vs tougher, drops in class today and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0).
Race 5
1 – Java Buzz – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a trainer who wins 19% of the races in the second race off a layoff.
5 – Sosua Summer – He is a speed horse who finished 3rd vs similar in last race at 1-1/16 miles and cuts back to 5-furlongs which may be just the ticket and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Sul Pharoah – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and may improve at the shorter distance.
3 – Rocket’s Red Glare – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a decent workout on July 24th.
Alternate:
2 – Upper Level
Race 6
7 – Smokie Eyes – She is a first-time starter who was purchased for $160,000 and her breeding suggests she will like the grass.
3 – Collaboration – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass.
4 – Dream On Cara – She ran 4th in her debut race and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
5 – Lady Jasmine – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and has a good jockey and trainer.
Alternate:
6 – Sweetest Princess
Race 7
3 – Tiergan – He ran 2nd in his last race only losing by a neck, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Blewitt – He has won two of the last three races and has a win at Saratoga.
2 – Daddy Knows – He has finished in the money in two out of four races at Saratoga, winning one of the starts.
5 – Bar Fourteen – He is a speed horse who finished 3rd in his last race at 1-1/16 miles and now cuts back to a mile which will help.
Alternate:
1 – Vintage Hollywood
4 – Troubleshooter
Race 8
1 – Silipo – He finished in the money in five out of six last starts, winning two and has a win out of one start at Saratoga.
8 – Hagler – He has won three out of seven career races winning the last one at Pimlico.
5 – Dot’s Dollar – He has won two out of his last three races, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0).
3 – Buckingham Prince – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and can go to the front or come from off the pace to win a race.
Alternate:
6 – Sugar Gray Leonard
4 – Free Square
Race 9
6 – Bramble Bay – She has finished in the money in four out of her last six starts, winning two and the distance will not be a problem.
1- Rocky Sky – She finished 4th beaten only 1-1/4 lengths vs similar in her last start, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-3-3)- Use 1A American Bridge if Rocky Sky is scratched – He showed speed in his last race but faded at the end in a 1-1/4 mile race and cuts back to 1-1/16 miles.
4 – Poca Mucha – She finished 2nd in the race before the last one with jockey Joel Rosario in the irons who returns to ride her again.
7 – Juxtapose – She has been knocking on the door finishing in the money in the last two races closing to finish 3rd in her last race at 1-mile and now stretches out to 1-1/16 miles.
Race 10
11 – Cathedral Beach – He has some good workouts, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Ginnsu Warrior – He drops in class today and the trainer wins 25% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
8 – Arthurian – He won his last race at Mountaineer and has decent workouts.
10 – Flipping Fun – He finished in the money in two out of two starts at Saratoga and is a closer who will appreciate the additional furlong in the race.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – Jumpers
3 – GOING COUNTRY
5 – HOWYABUD
7 – BURN THE EVIDENCE
6 – SECISIVE TRIUMPH
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs, 29 races, 26 won by speed, 8 w2w – PP: outside in. 1-3 a little under par
8 – DOROTHY’S THE BOSS – much better fractions in last, could be better in 2nd off a layoff, BTN FAV last out, tr John Kimmel wins at 34% next time out
1A – GLITTERING PRIZE – TLRSP#, off the bench hasn’t been her strong suit, vulnerable favorite?
7 – DARN THAT SONG – Bob Dylan horse 9/0-0-5 and distance 6/0-0-4, bullet work since, nice improvement 2/4f last out
4 – ACE UP HER SLEEVE – left arrow horse, has some EP and gets 1st time Lasix
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs, 29 races, 26 won by speed, 8 w2w – PP: outside in. 1-3 a little under par
2 – PRINTRACK – has a + Pace edge at 4f, BTN FAV at Flakes, tr Linda Rice rebounds at 26%
5 – NEVER EARLY – could be forwardly placed, TLRSP#, gets a weight break, 2 wins in 4 races
6 – LEDDY – maiden win was w2w – gets 1st Lasix, drops in class, 34f works since May 30, should be fit
3 – READY TO MARCH
Race 4 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 10 races, 50/50, 3w2w – PP: 0 wins rail, small discount 2-7, 8+ nice bonus
4 – ADELAIDE MISS – likes to run 1 mile, 5/3-1-0, just 9/1-0-2 at any other length, first run in straight claiming, tr Brittnay Russell wins at 24%
3 – WAR CANOE – just missed last out with improved LP, drops in class to a level that might be a better fit
1 – JASMINESQUE – left arrow horse, should be close to the front and has the most LP of any of the grass horses, only MTOs have more late punch, ran faster 6f fractions at 1mile than 6f, would like to put higher, but rail it ohfer
5 – GOLDEN VOICE – seems to have found her form in 2022 5/3-1-0, BTN fav last out, tr Michael Maker rebounds at 22%, concerned she may have peaks two back
Raec 5 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, 24 races, 13 won off the pace, 3 w2w – PP: 1 fair, 2/3 slight discount, 4-7 bonus, 8+ penalty
2 – UPPER LEVEL – could be better in R#2, if he is better, should be on the front with enough LP to stay there
1 – JAVA BUZZ – has the most late energy in the field, just missed last out, ran a little better times and might be better in 2nd after a layoff but at least as good as his last
3 – ROCKET’S RED GLARE – 1st time starter with some decent works getting ready
5 – SOSUA SUMMER – could be one of the favorites, but had 8 chances to win already and hasn’t, we’ll give the lighter run horses the edge
Race 6 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 13 races, 12 won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: rail bonus, 2/3 penalty, 4-7 bonus, 8+ penalty
7 – SMOKIE EYES – Clement and Prat 100% ITM in 9 winning 3, Clement best trainer #s for 1st timers
5 – LADY JASMINE – Johnny V and David Donk won 2/6 for +1.32 ROI, some good works on paper
6 – SWEETEST PRINCESS – Franco and George Weaver winners 4/13 together, all or nothing but +4.30 ROI
3 – COLLABORATION – Irad, decent works getting ready
Race 7 – 1 Mile 7 races, 5 won by speed, 2 w2w – PP: big rail bonus, 2/3 plus, 4-7 a little discount, no wins 8+
3 – TIERGAN – has a + LP edge and should not be too far off the front, TLRSP#, won his only Spa start, distance 13/2-6-3, stronger late in last could be better 3rd off the bench
6 – BLEWITT – has a wide variance between top and bottom races, at his best wins big, at his worst, loses big
2 – DADDY KNOWS – much better fractions and pace figures in his last, maybe better in 3rd of a layoff
5 – BAR FOURTEEN – goes back to dirt where he has the ability to get to the front and go w2w
Race 8 – 7 Furlongs, 9 races, 6 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: small penalty rail, 2/3 fair, 4-7 a little under par, 8+ bonus
1 – SILIPO- TLRSP#, 3 good works between races, 1 for 1 at Toga, distance 2/1-1-0, Fast 7/3-2-1
5 – DOT’S DOLLAR – should be on the lead and has the top LP, but neither are big advantages, 2 for 2 with Javier Castellano riding
3 – BUCKINGHAM PRINCE – ships in from CD resume says to expect more in 2nd race off the break
8 – HAGLER – rollercoaster horse, much better ATB in last a lot of works since last, best races make EZ work, but throws in stinkers too
Race 9 – 1 1/16 Mile Turf, 8 races, 6 won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ fair
1 – ROCKY SKY – both entries have the most back class, Brown with Irad and Flavien, as much as I hate 1-1 ML odds – and probably lower, but either can win
1A – AMERICAN BRIDGE –
3 – PRINCESS FAWZIA – highly consistent horse, should be better in her 3rd off the sidelines, Toga 3/0-2-0
6 – BRAMBLE BAY – left arrow horse with much better fractions last out at Monmouth, strong Z pattern last out
5 – MOVIE MOXY – tough call over the 2, but left arrow horse making her first grass go, best SP#s were in routes, off track record says she should like turf
Race 10 – 7 Furlongs, 9 races, 6 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: small penalty rail, 2/3 fair, 4-7 a little under par, 8+ bonus
9 – BRACIOLE – tr Orlando Noda winner 32% 2nd race off the claim, his best 3 races, EZ winner, 2 bad races mixed in, good works
11 – CATHEDRAL BEACH – 1st off claim for tr George Weaver, hits at 23%, Eddie C Angle, 1 for 1 at the distance
4 – GINNSU WARRIOR – has a 2nd at the distance, dropping multiple classes, tr Thomas Morley winner
8 – ARTHURIAN
Saratoga Pace Worksheet
