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Horse Racing Today – Saratoga Picks – Wednesday, July 27, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

Terry is Back, yeah!

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Today’s YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yy7uM1hPRI

Saratoga Horse Racing Tips and Commentary

Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping

Race 1

6 – Freddy Flintshire – He won his last race, has a trainer who wins 33% of allowance races she has an entry in and a good 5F workout on July-23.

1 – Ancient Times – He won his last race and has the best turf speed among today’s starters.

7 – State of Affair – He has finished in the money in 50% of his career starts, winning 21% of the races.

9 – Take Profit – He does well in steeple races and has the highest last race speed rating.

Alternate:

4 – Grey Giant

3 – Bee Major

 

Race 2

6 – Big Tony’s Girl – She won the last time she raced on a fast track and drops in class today.

1 – Knot Anymore – She has finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 30% of the dirt starts he has an entry in.

4 – Daily Briefing – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.

5 – Bells On Her Toes – She has won two out of the last three races.

Alternate:

3 – Bastet

2 – London Gold

 

Race 3

2 – Disarmed – He is a first-time starter; his breeding suggests he will like the grass and the breeding suits today’s sprint distance – His trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-2-4) and he has a good 4F workout on July-21st.

6 – Weyhill Farm Rd. – He was well bet in his debut and ran 7th on a sloppy track, but I will give him another chance because he has a high % winning trainer, the breeding suggests he will like the grass, his Dam has 4 winners from 7 starters and 2 Turf winners and a good 3F workout on July-20.

1 – Twenty-Six Black – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and the breeding suits today’s sprint distance.

5 – Noble Huntsman – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a good 3F workout on July-22.

Alternate:

7 – Vince the Prince

 

Race 4

2 – Bella Sofia – She has won six out of eight career races and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

1 – Frank’s Rockette – She has finished in the money in nineteen out of twenty-one career races, winning eight of the starts.

3 – Amadevil – She has won seven out of eight career races and has a bullet workout on July 20th.

4 – Kimari – She will be closing to try and catch the leaders at the finish line with jockey Joel Rosario in the irons.

 

Race 5

2 – Forwardly – He won his last race at Belmont Park, is trained by Brad Cox and ridden by jockey Flavien Prat.

6 – Mooney Love – Comes in from Germany after winning her last race and is ridden by jockey Joel Rosario.

5 – Dante’s Fire – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (10 4-1-2).

3 – Jarreau – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and a jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (38 10-6-3).

Alternate:

5 – Curbstone

 

Race 6

4 – Danseur d’Oro – She had a good debut race at Belmont Park on a sloppy track receiving a good speed rating and has a good 4F workout on July-22.

7 – Miracle – She is a first-time starter ridden by jockey Flavien Prat and has two bullet workouts in a row.

2 – Recognize – She finished 2nd vs similar in her last race at Belmont Park after being well bet.

1 – Gambling Girl – She ran 4th after being heavily bet in debut and has jockey Irad Ortiz who in last 7 days has this record (38 10-6-3).

Alternate:

6 – Disruption

 

Race 7 

5 – Mirth ‘n Merriment – She has won two out of the last four starts, has the highest last race speed rating, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).

1 – Hatari – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of claiming races he has a horse in, switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (38 10-6-3).

4 – Fish Mooney – She has finished in the money in five out of nine career races, winning two of the starts.

2 – Spooky Road – She drops in class today, is trained by Michael Maker and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (10 4-1-2).

Alternate:

3 – Vintage Girl

6 – Miss Invincible

 

Race 8

8 – O’Gotten Girl – She has a high % winning trainer, has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a good 4F workout on Jul-20.

9 – Unlock – Tried turf in her last race and didn’t seem to take to it and returns to dirt where she won in the race before last and drops in class today.

5 – Preposterous – She should improve while returning to dirt where the trainer wins 29% of the time going from turf to dirt.

1 – Saratoga Commando – She ran 2nd and then was placed 1st in her last race at Delaware.

Alternate:

7 – Anotherworldinside

2 – Keen Dancer

 

Race 9

1 – High Opinion – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has a trainer who wins 17% of turf starts he has a horse in and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.

7 – Evvie Jets – She can either go to the front or come from off the pace to win a race, winning her last race coming from behind.

5 – Messidor – She finished 4th in her last race, a 100K stakes race only losing by 1-1/4 lengths and has trainer Christophe Clement.

6 – Tass – She is a first-time starter; her Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters, the breeding suits today’s sprint distance and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (38 10-6-3).

 

Race 10

7 – Glitter Up – She has finished 2nd in her last three races, and they say the third time is a charm, but I think in this case a fourth time is a charm.

8 – Dover Dreams – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and may improve with Lasix added.

4 – Course Runner – She ran 4th in her debut race after coming 4-wide into the stretch – The trainer wins 22% in a horse’s 2nd career race.

3 – Liquidity Provider – She finished a nice 3rd vs similar in only start and has the highest last race speed rating.

Alternate:

5 – Backyard Money

Rich’s Ranks

Race 2 – 6 Furlongs, 19 races, 17 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ bias, 2-7 underperform slightly

6 – BIG TONY’S GIRL – left arrow horse, closer that should be close to pace, some nice works in the last two, like Kendrick on horses that get close to front

1 – KNOT ANYMORE – I think David Aragona is one of the better line makers, there must be some buzz around this horse because if he can’t beat horses at Charles Town how does he beat horses at Saratoga? Plus, he is an E horse, meaning his two wins were pressing for the lead and I am not sold on her getting the lead today, but I’ll but my faith in the ML odds

5 – BELLS ON HER TOES – has a + late pace advantage and hasn’t been too far from the leader in has last two starts. If she is within a couple lengths of leader coming out of the turn, he is live

3 – BASTET – this is the lady who I believe has the best chance to head to the front. If she can hold the lead past the ½ mile marker, has a legit shot at w2w, but more likely stalls at the wire

 

Race 3 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, 16 races, 50/50, 3 w2w – PP: 1-3 fair, 4-7 small bonus, 8+ big penalty

1 – TWENTY SIX BLACK – the last workout of 3f in 35.3 at Toga is fast, Jose Ortiz and tr Horacio De Paz won 3/8 together

2 – DISARMED – Clement has two entries and puts Rosario here, telling me this is the better of the two horses – nice workouts too, but I do think work for work the 1 is a touch faster early

5 – NOBLE HUNTSMAN – last three workouts show a horse that’s getting fit

6 – WEYHILL FARM RD. the lone experienced turf horse, the other Clement horse, didn’t show anything in debut, some good works since suggest a better effort today

 

Race 4 – 6 Furlongs, 19 races, 17 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ bias, 2-7 underperform slightly

2 – BELLA SOFIA – as much as I hate to put a 1/2 on top, this race sets up perfectly for her, the 1/3 could go too fast with BELLA SOFIA sitting right behind and she has ++ LP edge, If the front pair go less than 22 in the opening quarter, she can win by 5+ lengths

1 – FRANK’S ROCKETTE – she just missed vs BELLA last out, I think she has to try and get in front of BELLA this time but risks going too fast if she does

3 – AMADEVIL – probably has the best chance to pull of the upset. If BELLA and FRANK’S ROCKET believe it’s a two horse race and spot AMADEVIL a 3-4 length lead and a half in more than 45 seconds, they might not catch her

4 – KIMARI – this 2.7 million horse is capable too, but is an uncharacteristic Wesley Ward trainee, she doesn’t break sharply and closes. To win, I think the final time will have to be close to 1:10 and I just don’t see that happening – more likely 1:09 and small change

 

Race 5 – 1 ½ Miles Inner Turf – no races yet

This race isn’t necessarily going to answer who is the best horse. It’s about who can handle the distance and still have something left at the end

2 – FORWARDLY – never ran 1 ½ miles mut did go 1 3/8 last out and pulled away late in a 10 horse field. This horse has the look of one where the longer the better, top LP

6 – MOONEY LOVE – comes from Germany, a bit of a question mark, a few years ago would have dismissed German invader out of hand, but their racing is on the upswing. He’s gone as far 1 ¾ miles and has two thirds in 2 at 1 ½ miles

5 – DANTE’S FIRE – on paper it looks like this one should love the distance, but it seems like he does the same thing no matter the distance,  makes a move in the stretch to excite backers and then flattens out

3 – JARREAU – in Irad we trust, right? Is usually well bet but gave up ground in the final strides in five of his last six races and in all four at 1 ½ miles, it just looks too long for him

 

Race 6 – 6 Furlongs, 19 races, 17 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ bias, 2-7 underperform slightly

5 – SILVER SKILLET – workout times got faster and faster heading into her debut

4 – DANSEUR D’ORO – this horse flew out of the gates in her debut with hot EP#s, if she does that again, is going to be 1-2 lengths ahead of the pace unless on of the 1st timers is a burner too. The horse she ran 3rd to in the debut came back to finish 3rd in G3 next out

1 – GAMBLING GIRL – got off to a tough start in her debut as the $1.30 favorite, then ran btwn horse, 3-5 wide, workouts since have been good, if she gets a cleaner trip, probably lives up to debut odds

6 – DISRUPTION – tough call between the 6/7, but I am going to go with Chad Brown and Manny Franco, 7 has really nice works, but Flavien is struggling a little bit as he learns the NYRA circuit.

7 – MIRACLE

 

Race 7 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 5 races, 4 won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: strong inside 3 bias so far, 4-7 discounted, slight 8+ penalty

5 – MIRTH ‘N MERRIMENT – has the top EP and top LP, if she can run easy fractions, very well could go w2w

4 – FISH MOONEY – was improved in the first half mile of her last race and has some of the best LP#s too

1 – HATARI – consistent performer that can rally with the best of this bunch, gaining ground in the stretch 6 of her last 7 races

2 – SPOOKY ROAD – left arrow horse that should be closer to the front than usual, last race much better 2/4f #s, drops in class and could pick it up in 2nd off the bench

 

Race 8 – 6 Furlongs, 19 races, 17 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ bias, 2-7 underperform slightly

8 – O’GOTTEN GIRL – lowest level of career, kind of suspicious drop, but trainer Todd Pletcher his at 30% first time claiming, seems like they want to unload this horse

9 – UNLOCK – really contemplated putting this one on top because the internal numbers/fractions say there isn’t much difference between in and the 8 except for the odds

5 – PREPOSTEROUS – aside from the 8, scored the highest maiden win at MSW 75k, tr Saffie Jospeh, jr hits at 30% going turf to dirt

7 – ANOTHERWORLDINSIDE – early pace and could contend all the way around the track

 

Race 9 – 1 Mile Inner Turf, 6 races, 50/50, 2 w2w – PP: none from the rail, small discount 2/3, 4-7 best, small discount 8+

1 – HIGH OPINION – is a nose away from winning both Saratoga races, including a win at the distance, 2nd lowest level race in last 10

5 – MESSIDOR – really consistent high-end performance for this group, always close at the end, 3rd off the bench was the best of his only other 3 race cycle

3 – PHANTOM VISION – left arrow horse that could be on the front without a ton of pressure from any of the rest, has really run well off the bench 2 wins and 2 second (1 being debut)

4 – AMALFI PRINCESS – wanted to rank higher, just unsure 1 mile is the right distance, looks more like 6-7f, wide range in performance, meaning she has a lot of upside and downside

 

Race 10 – 6 Furlongs, 19 races, 17 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ bias, 2-7 underperform slightly

2 – ADAM’S ANGEL – $1 million horse, ran a decent debut back in November, some nice Toga works getting ready

3 – LIQUIDITY PROVIDER – Chad Brown first timer, putting Irad one means he thinks highly of the horse, good works too

8 – DOVER DREAMS – also ran last year, has the top LP before heading to the barn in September, first Lasix and some good works too

11 – AQUILA MOON – really hard call vs 7, he showed EP in lone race back in October, gets 1st Lasix, and I love the combo of EP and 1st Lasix

7 – GLITTER UP

Saratoga Pace Worksheet

Saratoga Pace Worksheet 7-27-2022

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