Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
Tampa Bay Downs Full Card Picks
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Turfway Park
Tampa Bay Downs Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Compass Cay – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-2-0).
6 – Risk Vs Reward – He drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 20% races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Thejigisup – He has a win at today’s distance and has a good workout on Nov 6th.
2 – Imperial Bird – He drops in class today and has a good 4F workout on Dec-02.
Alternate:
3 – Excellent Mark
4 – Teddy’s Honor
Race 2
1 – Ghost Stalker – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating, a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (10 3-2-0) and a good 4F workout on Dec-01.
3 – Shoo Shine – He likes Tampa Bay Downs, drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Hard Lighting – He won his last race at Delaware Park and has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-0).
2 – Cuz – He drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (17 5-2-2).
Alternate:
6 – Sunny Saint
4 – Banditoftheprairie
Race 3
1 – The Swayze Express – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race after being bumped at the start, the rail post is winning at 19% clip, his Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters and 1 Turf winner and Blinkers added today.
3 – Khozy Boy – He has the highest last race speed rating, and he has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-2-0).
2 – Zonal – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race, his Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters (but 0 Turf winners) and his trainer wins 24% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
6 – Cesar– He drops in class today and his trainer wins 25% of the races with a horses first race at a route.
Alternate:
4 – Easton E
5 – Whiskey Ricardo
Race 4
6 – Hot and Heavy – He likes the track finishing in the money in 60% of the races, winning 20% of the starts and likes the distance finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 50% of the starts.
4 – Ask for Bode – He has finished in the money in the last three of the races, ran 2nd vs tougher (on AW) in last race and drops in class today.
3 – Paladio – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Preferred Outcome – He has finished in the money in six out of ten races at Tampa Bay Downs and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
7 – Kevin Witte
2 – Imtakinittothebank
Race 5
7 – Hard Attack – He likes the turf finishing in the money in 64% of the races, winning 39% of the starts and likes the distance finishing in the money in 77% of the races, winning 56% of the starts.
5 – Bullet Force – He has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey and drops in class today.
2 – Montauk Summer – He won his last three races in a row, switches to a high % winning jockey and has three bullet workouts in a row.
3 – Obiwan – He finished 3rd (on Dirt) in last race and his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-3).
Alternate:
4 – Mid Day Image
Race 6
5 – Alizee – She won her last race at Tampa Bay Downs and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Antigone – She finished 3rd vs similar (on AW) in her last race, has a high % winning jockey and his trainer who wins 71% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
4 – Tiz Herself – She has won four out her last five races, drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
2- One Night Stand – She switches to a high % winning jockey and may improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
3 – She Dazzle
Race 7
4 – Deceitful – He won his last race at Presque Downs and has a high % winning jockey and a bullet 5F workout on Nov-27.
8 – Candidate – He won his last race at Laurel, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days who has won two races out of two starts.
6 – Furiously – He won his last race at Presque Downs and has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-3).
3 – Dataman – He drops in class today and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
5 – Caughtandcollected
Race 8
8 – I’m a Cutie – She won her last race at Tampa Bay Downs, has the highest last race speed rating and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (17 5-2-2).
7 – Style – She drops in class today and the trainer wins 17% of the races when taking a horse from a Sprint-Route-Sprint.
2 – Barbara – She drops in class today, can improve while returning to a sprint and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Pretty Devil – Her early speed running style helps chances and may improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
3 – Machtenhaironfire
Race 9
7 – Morena Dancer – She has finished 2nd in her last two races, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Roundabout- She drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Hurry Up Dear – She has finished in the money in five out of the last six races the rail post is winning at 19% clip.
6 – Syllabus – She finished 2nd in her last race and earned the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
8 – Shes Sky High
2 – Don Diva
Rich Rank’s
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed with an Outside In PP Bias
2 – IMPERIAL BIRD – could be the pacesetter, decent works for first race since April, won last fresh start w2w
5 – COMPASS CAY – BTN FAV by a neck last out, tr Jorge Delgado rebounds at 22%, maybe uptick in 2nd off the bench
6 – RISK VS REWARD – Lone PC type with TLRSP#, drops multiple classes, GP shippers usually see #s go up
1 – THEJIGISUP – rail stinks, but has room to be better in 2nd off the sidelines
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Only 1 race, w2w PP 4-7
1 – GHOST STALKER – TLRSP#, drops in class and has a good Tampa work since arriving from Laurel
5 – HARD LIGHTING – has a +/ LP advantage and the best #s at Tampa and the distance
3 – SHOO SHINE – should be part of the early pace and has a pair of decent TB works
2 – CUZ – consistent performer, better through first half mile of last and usually has solid LP
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Inside Out Stalkers
3 – KHOZY BOY – GP shipper with top LP and TLRSP#
6 – CESAR – only class dropper in the field, best effort was on a muddy track, can be indication of how he’ll run on grass
2 – ZONAL – has a 9 point EP edge, fractions will be everything, AW race was best, another clue for 1st on turf
1 – THE SWAYZE EXPRESS – rides the high win rate rail, 2nd after a layoff, 23% angle for 19% tr Ron Potts
Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Outside In Tactical Speed
4 – ASK FOR BODE – doesn’t look like it in PPs, but should be close to the pace and has some LP
1 – PREFERRED OUTCOME – faster fractions last out, Tampa 10/2-3-1
6 – HOT AND HEAVY – lone PC, classic 3rd after a layoff, 10 pound weight break
3 – PALADIO – TLRSP#, big mid move last out, better 4/6 f times in last
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Inside Out Stalkers
2 – MONTAUK SUMMER – lone EP horse in a field of closers, three bullets getting ready
4 – MID DAY IMAGE – dropping after facing a lot tougher in Stakes, +9 EP edge at 4f, tough to beat with the lead in the stretch
5 – BULLET FORCE – was facing a lot tougher in Britain, gets first Lasix here, turf 11/2-3-3
3 – OBIWAN – Tampa Turf 11/2-0-4 with best TB#s, a lot of others haven’t run here yet
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Only 4 races, 3 won by Closers, all from 2 & 3
4 – TIZ HERSELF – TLRSP# and Drops in class, TB 7/3-2-0
5 – ALIZEE – 1st off the claim for tr Jon Arnett, 24% angle, win last with ease in first at TB, going from 6 ½ to 7f probably helps
6 – EXPECT TO BE READY – won 4 in a row, two solid TB works suggest she’ll have a chance at 5
7 – ANTIGONE – gets Pablo, won on her two back at PID, Distance 6/3-0-1
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Inside Out Stalkers
8- CANDIDATE – has a +EP edge over a field of mostly closers, broke maiden in last at distance on grass
4 – DECEITFUL – a win and a third in two career starts, bullet work and go
3 – DATAMAN – first time gelded taking a drop from 100K NGST and G2
6 – FURIOUSLY – tough call over the 5, but the turf pedigree #s are some of the best in the race
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed with an Outside In PP Bias
8 – I’M A CUTIE – could be the speed of the speed in a race full of speed
7 – STYLE – has two at TB, both seconds, has the most LP for the sprinters
2 – BARBARA – another with 2 at TB 2/1-0-1, ok works, weight break
3 – MACHTENHAIRONFIRE – showed class in California, let’s see if she steps it up in R2 off the bench
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Inside Out Stalkers
6 – SYLLABUS – lone P in a field of closers, has nearly a 10 pt EP/LP combo, TLRSP#
2 – DON DIVA – should be on the pace vs a bunch of closers, clipped heels in last, a clean trip
1 – HURRY UP DEAR – rides the 19% winning rail, money burner, BTN Fav 3 in a row
5 – ROUNDABOUT – one of two class droppers, tr John Terranova 27% with shippers vs 20% overall
Tampa Bay Downs’ Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet
