Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Keeneland Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Laurel Park
Keeneland Racetrack Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2B – Hurricane Debbie – Her Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, and she has a trainer/ jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
6 – Double Overtime – Her dam has 1 winner from 1 starter and the trainer wins 20% of the time in maiden Special Wt.race.
7 – Becky Thatcher – Her dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and a good 3F workout on 07Apr Kee 3f my :36.3 Bg2/7.
1/1A – Recio’s Baytown – Her Sire wins 16% with 1st time Starters and a bullet 3F workout on 06Apr Kee 3f ft :36. Bg1/7 – (Baytown Melody).
Race 2
1 – Sariah Sariah – She Finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race but won the two races prior, received the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and the trainer wins 22% of the time when shipping a horse in.
2 – Carry On- She has finished in the money in nine out of the last ten races, winning four of the races including the last two – The trainer wins 21% of the time when shipping a horse in and she has a bullet 3F workout on 18Mar Ctt 4f ft :50.2 B 1/9.
8 – Talk Radio – She is one for one at Keenland – The trainer wins 19% of the time in the 3rd race off a layoff and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Ancient Brown – She comes in from Aqueduct to try Keenland for the first time, likes the distance and the trainer wins 20% of the time when his entry is off 46-90 days.
Alternate:
3 – Positive Vibes
4 – Matt’s Honey
Race 3
6 – Alfie Solomons – He finished in the money in the last three races, winning one of the contests and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer is Westly Ward who is winning at a 34% clip, and he has a good 5F workout on 07Apr TP 5f ft 1:00.2B 3/11
2 – Feast – He comes in from Gulfstream Park to try Keenland for the first time, the trainer wins 24% of the time in claiming races and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Windy City Red – He won his last race at Gulfstream Park and comes to Keenland to try and repeat at the same distance, he has the highest last race speed rating, and has a good workout on 06Apr Kee 4f ft :47.2 B 5/16.
8 – Yes Sir Robert – Should improve while returning to the dirt – The trainer wins 25% of the time when going from a Route to a Sprint.
Alternate:
7 – Z U At the Races
Race 4
5 – Baby Yoda – She has finished 2nd in her last two races, losing her last one by only a neck, receiving the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – She Drops in class today and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
3 – Beverly Park – She ran 3rd in her last race after having troubles in the race – The trainer wins 31% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and her early speed running style helps her chances as she could lead all the way.
4 – Thirsty Betrayal – She has finished in the money in eight out of the last nine races, winning two of the races, in her last race she finished 6th but she was bumped at the start and wide throughout the race.
6 – Family Man – She has won three races out of five career races at Oaklawn Park – She has a high % winning Jockey -The trainer wins 50% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite back to race.
Race 5
8 – Runpat – He ran 2nd in his last race earning the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – He has a high % winning trainer and a good 5F workout on 09Apr OP 5f ft 1:01 B 4/21.
3 – Lofty Adjudicator – He ran 4th in his last race after having an awkward start, returning to dirt should help and the jockey in last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-0).
1 – Nabokov – He is a first-time starter, the dam has 2 winners from 4 starters 1 stakes winner, the jockey in last 7 days has this record (23 6-5-2) and he has a good 4F workout on 08Apr Kee 4f ft :48.3 B 21/85.
6 – Ratification – He ran 2nd in his last race at the Fairgrounds and the trainer wins 22% of the time when bringing back a horse who has been off for 46-90 days – Blinkers added today.
Alternate:
7 – Sprinklehead
5 – Prize Fighter
Race 6
11 – Oakhurst – She won her last race at Gulfstream Park and the jockey in last 7 days has this record (23 6-5-2).
8 – Bravo Kitten – She won her last race at Gulfstream Park and the trainer wins 25% of the time with 2nd time Lasix.
10 – I’m So Sorry– She Won last race at Gulfstream Park – the trainer wins 22% of the time in 2nd race off a layoff.
2 – Ready Lady– She Drops in class today and has a Bullet 4F workout on 08Apr Pay 4f ft :48.4 B 1/22
Race 7
3 – American Hero – He Finished 3rd (on AW) in his last race and the trainer/jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (3 3-0-0).
5 – Wicked Genius – He finished 3rd the last time he raced at Keenland and drops in class today for today’s race.
7 – Zippin Gigi – He won two of thehis last three races at Gulfstream Park and his best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
4 – Blue Kentucky – He has the highest last race speed rating; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer wins 17% of the time of the claiming races he enters a horse in.
Alternate:
1 – Yono
2 – Whatstheconnection
Race 8
5 – Norma Jean B. – She has finished in the money in the last seven races, winning four of the races including the last two – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (23 6-5-2) and she has two bullet workouts in a row.
7 – Fluffy Socks – She finished 3rd vs tougher (on Dirt) in her last race, drops in class today and her best turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed – Lasix added.
2 – Temple City Terror – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race and has finished in the money in the last four races, winning one – She has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
6 – Curly Ruth – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
1 – Princess Causeway
Race 9
2 – Cape Trafalgar – He closed to run 2nd in his last race at six furlongs and stretches out today which may just what he needs – He has the highest last race speed rating and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (23 6-5-2).
7 – Classic Mark – He finished 3rd in his last race at Santa Anita while experiencing some trouble, the trainer wins 22% of the time with a shipper and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (21 7-2-4).
8 – Brigadier General – He ran 2nd in his last race at the Fairgrounds and at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Warrior Johny – He ran 3rd in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a very good 5F workout on 08Apr CD 5f ft :59.4 B 4/44.
Alternate:
10 – Hippodrome
6 – Flocked
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 4 ½ furlongs, not enough races, but winner went w2w yesterday
6 – DOUBLE OVERTIME – a bunch of good works here
7 – BECKY THATCHER – John Hancock won the opener at 4 ½ f yesterday, let’s go for the double
2B – HURRICANE DEBBIE – going to be a huge favorite, got to try and beat a 1st timer, 2-y-o at low odds
1 – BAYTOWN MELODY
1A – RECIO’S BAYTOWN
Race 2 – 1 1/16 miles, 33 races, 23 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: Big rail edge, inside 3 bias, 4-7 3x>8+
1 – SARIAH SARIAH – on the 33% winning rail, has speed, TLRSP# and Drops in class
3 – POSITIVE VIBES – gets a good weight break, ITM 11/16 at the distance, could be better in 2nd off the bench
8 – TALK RADIO – had strong 2f/4f EP improvement and could be better in the 3rd off the break, 1 for 1 at Keeneland, distance 2/1-0-1
2 – CARRY ON – can win from anywhere and raced well after a break in his last after a break, a head from winning 4 in a row
Race 3 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 18 races, 13 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: 4-7 have been dominate
2 – FEAST – strong second half of his last race, ran well in pair of 1st off the bench on dirt, inside with speed
6 – ALFIE SOLOMONS – would be rated first but he’s not raced since April of last year, works are OK, but finished way behind in only other similar break
4 – WINDY CITY RED – TLRSP# and was slightly better ATB in last with a decent work since
3 – TEMPLET – last race was better by 1 ½ seconds, runs his best upfront and has some of the best LP# in the field
Race 4 – 6 Furlongs, 28 Races, 23 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: Rail bias, inside 3 bias, even 4+
3 – BEVERLY PARK – Keeneland 4/3-0-0, more inside speed, missed as favorite in last, trainer Norman Cash rebounds at 32% with BTN FAVS
5 – BABY YODA – should probably be first, but has a habit of losing as the heavy favorite
7 – CRIME SPREE – won the last time he took some time off, like today, two good works recently and should be mid pack, which is where he’s been when he’s won recently
4 – THIRSTY BETRAYAL
Race 5 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 18 races, 13 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: 4-7 have been dominate
8 – RUNPAT – crazy good 2/4f jump in his last, 2 very good works since and should be better in 2nd off the bench
1 – NABOKOV – next three are first time starts, this one cost $775k
4 – CHARGEITTOTHEGAME – $400k here and probably has the best works of the 1st timers
9 – EAST TO THE DAWN – momma has 5 stakes winners from 10 starters, and is $450k
Race 6 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 15 races, 8 won by stalkers/closers, 4 w2w -PP: big inside 3 bias
2 – READY LADY – really liked the way Johnny V ride yesterday, been working well
8 – BRAVO KITTEN – will be closing with big time better #s in EP and LP#s in last
10 – I’M SO SORRY – won last and could get a good trip, not a lot of speed, should be in front of a bunch f closers and has solid LP#s
1 – I GOT A GAL – SA shipper, 3rd off the break, can win from the front or middle of the pack
Race 7 – 7 Furlongs, 16 Races, 12 won by speed, 5 w2w -PP: small rail penalty, 4+>2/3
3 – AMERICAN HERO – jy/tr Prat/Cox 3/3, 2nd of layoff 28% for trainer Brad Cox, Better ATB in last
4 – BLUE KENTUCKY – TLRSP# and has been facing tougher, only EP horse, could have some pace to chase
5 – WICKED GENIUS – dropping in class, 16f works since March 5, decent works and could be close to the lead with 2nd best LP#s
1 – YONO – tough call over #7, but consistently has better numbers
Race 8 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 15 races, 8 won by stalkers/closers, 4 w2w -PP: big inside 3 bias
6 – CURLY RUTH – top EP horse in a race filled with closers, distance 9/2-4-0
7 – FLUFFY SOCKS – been facing the top company by far in 6 straight graded races, 1st Lasix
3 – PASS THE PLATE – has the top LP#s of the pack of late runners, she’s been very competitive in non-graded stakes
1 – PRINCESS CAUSEWAY – really hard call over #5, but has been facing tougher and prefer inside horse after yesterday
Race 9 – 1 1/16 miles, 33 races, 23 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: Big rail edge, inside 3 bias, 4-7 3x>8+
2 – CAPE TRAFALGAR – should not be too far from the lead and has the best LP3 in debut by far
7 – CLASSIC MARK – coming in from SA – Prat rode there and could be the pacesetter where 33% go w2w
8 – BRIGADIER GENERAL – another that will be near the lead in a field of pressers and closers, improved ATB big time in last
4 – WARRIOR JOHNY – difficult call over the 1, but we’ll take the horse coming in from FG over Turfway
