Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Keeneland Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Penn National
Keeneland Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1A – Till Then – He finished 3rd in his last race at Turfway Park and has a jockey who in last 7 days has this record (10 4-0-2).
7 – Irish Declaration – He has finished in the money in two of his last three races, winning one – The trainer wins 20% of the time when going from to an AW to Dirt surface.
3 – Higher Authority – He figures to improve while returning to dirt – The trainer wins 17% of the time in dirt starts and his best dirt speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed – He has a decent workout on 10Apr Kee 4f ft :48ª B 24/85.
5 – Mississippi – He finished 2nd at Oaklawn Park in his last race – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
1 – Duel Fuel
Race 2
10 – Somebodylovesyou – She is a first- time starter – The Dam has 8 winners from 8 starters – The trainer wins 20% of the time in maiden special weight.
1 – Grand Oak – She is a first- time starter – The Sire wins 16% with 1st time starters and she has a good 4F workout on 15Apr Kee 4f ft :48ª B 15/71.
2 – Catcha Later Mo – She is a first- time starter – The Sire wins 33% with 1st time starters and she has several good workouts.
5 – Thatshowsherolls – Her has Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter and breeding suits today’s sprint distance – She has some very good workouts.
Race 3
3 – Stage Left – He won his last race at Mahoning Valley easily and earning the highest last race speed rating – He has the high % winning trainer Wesley Ward.
7 – He Hate Me – He comes in from Gulfstream Park to race again at Keenland where he finished in the money in both of his races – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Lafitte’s Fleet – He has been racing at The Fairgrounds and comes to Keenland to race for the first time – He switches to high % winning jockey Tyler Gaffalione and the trainer wins 27% of the time when going from a route to sprint – Returning to a sprint should help and he has a bullet 4F workout on 13Apr Kee 4f ft :47© B 1/38.
2 – Logical Myth– He has high % winning jockey Saez Luis – He has some very good workouts and May improve with Blinkers added today.
Race 4
7 – Lyrical Poet – She likes to break on top and lead all the way so the distance of 5-1/2 furlongs should fit her running style – Her best turf speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed – The trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-1-1).
6 – Foliage – She won her last race at The Fairgrounds and has two good workouts in a row in preparation for this race.
1 – Ready to Answer – She has the highest last race speed rating.
9 – Super Design – He likes the turf, and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters – He has a high % winning trainer and returning to a sprint should help.
Alternate:
10 – Dark Timber
5 – Rockstar Ro
Race 5
9 – World Party – She is a closer who comes in from Delta Downs after finishing 2nd in the last two races at 7-1/2 furlongs and stretches out to 1-1/16 miles which I think is right what she needs – She received the highest last race speed rating, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
7 – Simply Beguiled – She won at Oaklawn by closing from deep to win by only a head at 6-furlongs and now is going to 1-1/16 miles where she has finished well in the past.
1 – Waywardness – She won her last race at Turfway Park breaking on top and leading all of the way with veteran Smokin Joe Talamo in the irons who returns to ride again – The trainer wins 50% of the claiming races he has an entry in.
2 – Bitter Vixen – She comes in from Oaklawn Park to try Keenland for the first time – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a nice 4F workout on 15Apr CD 4f ft :47ª B 2/71.
Alternate:
10 – Big Bugg’s Girl
5 – Gorilla Girl
Race 6
3 – Hawk of War – He finished 3rd on an AW surface in his last race at Turfway Park getting the highest last race speed rating – He may improve at the shorter distance and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
10 – Our Country – He is back on the turf where he does well and switches to a high % jockey.
2 – Eyes On Target – He won his last race at Gulfstream Park on the Turf and now switches to high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. and had a good 4F workout on 15Apr Cdt 4f ft :48¨ B 5/24.
1 – Counterstrike – He won his last race at Turfway Park. He has a high % winning trainer and a Sharp 4F workout (Apr-15).
Alternate:
4 – Fieldstone
Race 7
9 – Falconet – She finished 2nd in her first career race and earned the highest last race speed rating – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey – She may improve at the longer distance and her best dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Mine for Passion – She has been racing at Gulfstream Park, finishing 2nd twice out of four races, and now is trying Keenland for the first time and she has a Sharp 5F workout on (Apr-15).
7 – Tiz American – She has a high % winning trainer and should improve while returning to the dirt and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-1).
2 – Silverleaf – She appears that she can lead to win a race or come from off the pace – She may improve with Lasix added and a jockey who in last 7 days has this record 7 days (12 3-1-2).
Alternate:
1 – Tiffany’s Mo
8 – Friendship Road
Race 8
4 – Flanigan’s Cove – She won the last two races in a row; coming to Keenland where she was one start and one win – She likes to run mid-pack and close to win and I think she can handle the distance.
3 – Disappearing Act – She ran 2nd vs tougher in last race and drops in class today – She has a High % winning Jockey, a trainer who wins 18% of the time in allowance races and a Sharp 5F workout on (Apr-15).
1A – Ya Beauty – She finished in the money in her last three races, finishing 3rd on an AW surface in her last race and a trainer who wins 17% of the time in the 2nd race off a layoff.
6 – Go Big Blue Nation – She ran 2nd in a race at Kentucky Downs at 1-5/16 miles so today’s distance won’t present a problem – She switches to a high % winning jockey, drops in class today and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-0-1).
Alternate:
8 – Gladys
1 – Pallas Athene
Race 9
2 – Watermark – She has finished in five races out of six career races during her career and drops in class today, – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (10 4-0-2) and the trainer wins 19% of the races when going from an AW a to Dirt surface.
9 – Hot Anna – She finished 5th in her last race but only lost by 2-1/4 lengths, drops in class and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – She figures to improve while returning to dirt today and the trainer wins 18% of the races when moving from Turf to Dirt.
4 – Queen Cordelia – She has early speed, improving her speed rating in each of the last three races and drops in class today.
6 – Pistol – She will break on top and try to lead to the finish line – She has a highest last race speed rating; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and the trainer wins 25% of the races when moving from Maiden to a Maiden Claiming race.
Alternate:
12 – Shady
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 1/16 Miles, 17 races, 8 won off the pace, 1 w2w -PP: 8+ bias, 4-7 slightly better 1-3
5 – MISSISSIPPI – has by far the top SP# at the distance and all the others aren’t in the same time zone
3 – HIGHER AUTHORITY – probably should not be ranked this high, but man does he have and EP edge vs a field of closers
7 – IRISH DECLARATION – has the best LP#s for this group and has a solid 3rd in his lone Keeneland effort
1A – TILL THEN
1 – DUEL FUEL
Race 2 – 4 ½ Furlongs, 4 races, 3 won by speed, 1 w2w -PP: 1 from rail, 2/3, 4-7, and only 8+ won
2 – CATCHA LATER MO – looking at that 35.4 3f work at Keeneland in April 5th, that’s quick enough to be in contention at the jump
6 – YOU CHOSE WISELY – looking at that 3f work of 35 flat, fastest of 20 on April 13th, bullet and go
10 – SOMEBODYLOVESYOU – a bunch of bullet works getting prepped for debut
1 – GRAND OAK –
11 – CRACKALACKING – trainer Sarah Hamilton has a +6.48 ROI in MSW
Race 3 – 7 furlongs, 10 races, 50/50, 2 w2w -PP: fair as can be
3 – STAGE LEFT –this is the one that will take advantage of the 6 scratching as a he’ll likely be the pilot
7 – HE HATE ME – showed some significant early race improvement in his second stat after 19 months in the barn, two decent works since his last and should move forward here
1 – LAFITTE’S FLEET – jy Tyler G having a good meet, I just jinxed him, bullet work on April 13th, tr Thomas Amoss going route to sprint – 27% winner in 91 attempts
5 – CARAMELITO –
Race 4 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, 6 races, 5/6 won by speed, 2 w2w -PP: favors 2/3
9 – SUPER DESIGN – strong late race improvement in last, always well bet, decent work on April 11th, but regressed in two previous first starts after a layoff
7 – LYRICAL POET – concern is he gets locked up in speed duel with #3, if not, 5 ½ furlongs with his EP should be just about the perfect distance
1 – READY TO ANSWER – 1st time gelded 5 yo – read some stats on this Thoroughbred Cycles, for whatever reason, it can have supercharger effect at 5
2 – PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE – maybe crazy for taking over the 5, but has the best LP#s, better fractions in last and has the top numbers in the mud/slop and it’s supposed to be wet, if not – maybe take the 5
Race 5 – 1 1/16 Miles, 17 races, 8 won off the pace, 1 w2w -PP: 8+ bias, 4-7 slightly better 1-3
2 – BITTER VIXEN – pressure horse with the top EP#s by a lot, if she rides shotgun at comfortable fractions, could make this one look easy
9 – WORLD PARTY – not the biggest fan of Delta/Delaware horses squaring up against tier 1 track types, but jy Thomas Pompell and tr Brett Brinkman won 6/12 and ITM 10/12 for +2.33 ROI
10 – BIG BUGG’S GIRL – getting a dose of 1st Lasix, only horse in the field going so, could be enough to make her 2 for 2 at the distance
8 – LA TOURISTA – pure off-track play as she tried it 5/0-2-1 with the best #s by far – take the 7 or 1 if the track is listed as fast or good
Race 6 – 1 mile Turf, 4 races, 3 won off the pace, 0 w2w – PP: all winner 2 or 3
10 – OUR COUNTRY – has the top LP#s by a wide margin, tends to run well off the bench, like today
2 – EYES ON TARGET – Irad and tr Michael Maker winners 4/9, ITM 7/9 for +0.24 ROI, good works getting ready
3 – HAWK OF WAR – W/P/S in three at the distance, TLRSP# on AW, but has some of the best turf #s
12 – KING TUFF –
Race 7 – 1 1/16 Miles, 17 races, 8 won off the pace, 1 w2w -PP: 8+ bias, 4-7 slightly better 1-3
9 – FALCONET – just missed in her debut with the TLRSP#, added distance today should help
2 – SILVERLEAF – showed some EP in her debut and gets 1st Lasix, not a lot of EP in here
8 – FRIENDSHIP ROAD – was a lot better for the first half mile in her last outing and could take another step forward in the third start off the bench
7 – TIZ AMERICAN – jy Luis Saez, winning titles wherever he goes, teamed up with tr Eddie Kenneally 6 times, they won 3, ITM 5, for +4.97 ROI
Race 8 – 1 ½ mile Turf, not many at the distance
8 – GLADYS – speed is probably not the way at the distance, but lone E horse with a bunch of closers and pressers
6 – GO BIG BLUE NATION – switches to Tyler G, top jock during the Keeneland meet, hasn’t run since November but has been working well
3 – DISAPPEARING ACT – just missed in a G3 in her last, should be the first in line for the pressers and closers
7 – FATE OF OPHELIA – switches to Irad, has some solid late run and the pace should setup nicely for her as she’ll be closer to the front than usual
Race 9 – 6 furlongs, 9 races, 5 won by speed, 2 w2w -PP: rail and 8+ >2-7
4 – QUEEN CORDELIA – running at its lowest level, held speed much better in last, which was first non MSW
9 – HOT ANNA – another making its lowest level start, tr Kenneth McPeek wins 18% turf to dirt, 5% do far at Keeneland
7 – SUPER SURGE – ran much better in her last in her first MC race, couple of good works since last
2 – WATERMARK – tough call over #6, moving down from MSW, but has run as low as MCL 15 and hasn’t won yet, jy Gerardo Corrales winner 6/18
6 – PISTOL – making drop in class, better ATB in last, expensive horse
