Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Turfway Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Picks: Delta Downs
Turfway Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Party Next Door – Finished 3rd (on Dirt) in only start after being bumped at the start – Has the highest last race speed rating -The trainer wins 28% of the time in the entries 2nd career race – Lasix added.
4 – Dimples of Venus – Has improve her speed rating three races in a row – Jockey Alice Beckman returns to ride- She rode her in her best finishes to date.
6 – One Fast Orb – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 50% of the time in 1st start with a turn – Blinkers added today.
2 – War Tango – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 21% of the time when using blinkers 1st.
Alternate:
5 – Top Hat Boss
9 – Amari S.
Race 2
1 – Down Home Kitten – Throw out the last race as he was off slow, bumped and checked – The trainer wins 22% of the time in Claiming races.
9 – Areyoutalkingtome – Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a Jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (16 5-3-3)
5 – Irish Declaration – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race- The trainer wins 33% of the time 1st after claim – Best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters.
10 – English Challenge – Likes the track and distance – Drops in class today.
Alternate:
6 – Court and Spark
7 – Lizzy’s Lure
Race 3
5 – Thispointintime – Finished 2nd at Turfway Park and at today’s distance, improving his race speed rating in each of the last four races.
7 – Froome – Has the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 41% of the time when dropping a horse down 2+ classes – His best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters was well bet in debut and has a good 5F workout (Feb-11).
10 – Old Beau – Finished 4th in last race after being bumped at the start – Drops in class today.
2 – Air Force Wars – Breeding suits today’s sprint distance – decent workout on 11Feb TP 4f ft :49.3 B 26/63
Alternate:
3- Uncle Dick
11 – Fama Y Dinero
Race 4
7 – Dial Again – Finished in the money in four of her five lifetime races, winning the last one. – Has a high % winning Jockey – Best Turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
3 – Miss Adeline – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – Switches to a high % jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (16 5-3-3).
1 – Admaa – Ran 2nd two races in a row including vs similar in last race – She has the best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Pliantlea – Drops in class today and the wins 27% of the time in All Weather races.
Alternate:
6 – Ice Queen
Race 5
5 – Miss Getty Up – Finished in the money three out of four races at Tampa Bay Downs, winning the last race at today’s distance.
8 – Sweet Spin – Drops in class today and the Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 5-3-3).
4 – Lucky Shore-
12 – Maoilin
Race 6
7 – Addison – Won last race at Turfway Park – The trainer wins 28% of the time with Claim repeater – Sharp 5F workout (Feb-11)
1 – Bethabara – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race receiving the highest last race speed rating.
8 – Ginny B – Drops in class today and the trainer wins 30% of the time in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.
3 – Saving Sophie – The trainer wins 40% of the time when taking the Blinkers off – Should improve while returning to a route and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
2 – Princess Nina
Race 7
6 – Vivid Verse – Ran 2nd in last race – The trainer wins 22% of the time when he enters an entry in an All-Weather race.
3 – Solidify – Came in from Woodbine and ran 3rd in his first race and then finished 3rd in last race.
4 – John’s Rock – Finished in the money five out of five races at Tampa Bay Downs, winning one of those races and earned the highest last race speed rating.
9 – Soaring Bird – Finished in the money in the last nine races, winning three of the races including the last one. Has several good workouts to compete in today’s contest.
Alternate:
1 – Tapit’s Spirit
10 – Pirate Rick
Race 8
2 – Duel Fuel – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race earning the highest last race speed rating and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – His best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-0-0)
5 – Cardiac Kid – In first race after being off 3-months ran 2nd vs similar in last race.
13 – Cleveland Simpson – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 26% of the Claiming races his horses are in – Should improve at the shorter distance and he has highest speed figure at today’s distance.
3 – Fat Account – Switches to a high % winning jockey and should improve while returning to a route – Blinkers added today and the Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 5-3-3).
Alternate:
4 – Luckyinkentucky
12 – Mr. Banyan
Rich’s Rank’s
Race 1 – 5 ½ Furlongs: 121 Races, 74 won by speed, 38 w2w – PP: Rail and inside 3 bias, 4-7>8
6 – One Fast Orb – flashed some early pace in in last, drop from MCL 15-5, always been well bet, Top Pedigree, has very strong EP back class pace#, should improve in 2nd off the bench
1 – Party Next Door – Top EP#s, 1st Lasix, 20F @ TWY works since Dec 12, 1st since April 11th, BIG DROP MSW 60 – MCL 5? (12k purse), this drop stinks a little
5 – Top Hat Boss – strong LP improvement in last vs slow fractions, might be closer to the pace than it looks on paper
9 – Amari S. – also closed into slow pace w/#5 in last, improved 4f/LP# in last, TWY 3/0-1-1, elsewhere 16/0-1-0
4 – Dimples of Venus
2 – War Tango
Race 2 – 1 Mile: 99 Races, 50/50, 20 w2w -PP Inside 3 bias with 4-7 a little better than 8+
1 – Down Home Kitten – despite SP# drop, 2f/4f #s improved, bumped and checked, TWY 5/1-2-1
3 – Fred’s Country Boy – Taking a shot here, major 24/4f/LP# improvement, can break on lead in what could be a paceless race, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 3SP# Increases
10 – English Challenge – AW 10/2-3-1, only DROP 27-14,
5 – Irish Declaration – 3rd off a layoff, major step up in LP# in last, distance on AW 7/3-0-1, Top Pedigree
7 – Lizzys Lure
6 – Court and Spark
11 – Gray Hope
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs: 61 Races, 34 won by speed, 18 w2w -PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ penalty
7 – Froome – TPLSRP# and it wasn’t close, odds probably drop, top EP# by a little over #1, 1st Lasix
1 – Petty Thief – move from PP 11 of 11 to 1 with strong 2/4F pace#s, was bet OK too, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, DROP MCL 20-15
11 – Fama Y Dinero – Tom Carley DROP MSW 62-MCL -15, 1st Lasix, has some EP, improved 24/4f #s in last, strong work on Jan 15, 7 pound weight break
10 – Old Beau – improved across the board in the last, 3rd race, DROP MCL 30-15, class relief should be enough
5 – Thispointintime
3 – Uncle Dick
2 – Air Force Wars
Race 4 – 1 Mile: 99 Races, 50/50, 20 w2w -PP Inside 3 bias with 4-7 a little better than 8+
1 – Admaa – 2 best runs on TWY AW, both off the break, strong run on Dec 26, two works since, LRSP>PAR
10 – Golden Voice – Top Pedigree, LRSP>PAR, 16F works since Jan 12, TPLRSP#
6 – Ice Queen – DROP Alw 63-CLM 30, consistent performer, decent work, tr: Ben Colebrook 7/21 1st time claiming
3 – Miss Adeline – top J Gerardo Corrales, 13F workouts since Jan 16,
2 – Cuzzywuzzy
4 – Sweet Devil
Race 5 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 53 Races, 34 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: Strong Inside 3 bias
13 – Lost Wish – If she gets in, 1st off the claim 83/416 Tr Steve Asmussen, a couple of strong works
2 – Delightful Breeze – increases in pace#s across the board, much faster fractions, Biggest DROP 64-27
8 – Sweet Spin –
5 – Miss Getty Up
Race 6 – 1 Mile: 99 Races, 50/50, 20 w2w -PP Inside 3 bias with 4-7 a little better than 8+
8 – Ginny B – DROP 64-30, Top Pedigree, 3SP# Increases, turf record says she should take to AW, 14F works since last
7 – Addison – 3rd off a layoff, should be rolling late, TWY/AW 2/1-0-1, Distance 5/2-2-0, a pair a strong workouts since last race
1 – Bethabara – TPLRSP#, well bet in two runs at TWY, 2F and LP pace improvement in last
2 – Princess Nina
3 – Saving Sophie
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs: 61 Races, 34 won by speed, 18 w2w -PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ penalty
5 – Searing Chase – lone race at TWY would be good enough, DROP 156-66, 18F works since Jan 14
6 – Vivid Verse – TWY 5/3-2-0, Distance 6/1-2-2, could be better in 2nd after a layoff, 2 good works since last race, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
4 – Johns Rock – TPLRSP#, TWY 5/1-3-1, AW 8/1-3-3, Top Pedigree, 3SP# Increases,
10 – Pirate Rick – TOP EP# by a little over #5, just needs to run back two races w2w at TWY,
3 – Solidify
Race 8 – 1 Mile: 99 Races, 50/50, 20 w2w -PP Inside 3 bias with 4-7 a little better than 8+
2 – Duel Fuel – 24/4f/LP # improvements across the board, TPLRPS#, LRSP>PAR, 3SP# Increases, Top EP/LP Combo
13 – Cleveland Simpson – if he scratches in, lone win at TWY, decent works getting ready, BTN FAV, Down 2 classes, high win rates for tr: Aaron West
5 – Cardiac Kid – 24/4f/LP # improvements, lone trip at TWY missed by a neck, Top Pedigree
4 – Luckyinkentucky – closing out with a flyer, 1st time G, ran well last time he took a lot of time off, 20F works since Dec 10
3 – Fat Account
6 – Killer Bee
