Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Aqueduct Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Picks: Sam Houston
Aqueduct Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Inouaintalkintome – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Has the highest last race speed rating – High % winning trainer.
5 – Live in Five – Ran 4th in last start after being bumped during the race – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Good 4F workout on 19Feb Bel tr.t 4f ft :49.4 B 10/135
1 – Elegant Laoban –Finished 3rd vs similar in last race
3 – Bonana Fanna Foe –Should improve while returning to a route – Jockey in last 7 days has this record (24 8-2-3).
Alternate:
4 – Causeway of Dreams
2 – Emerald Banker
Race 2
6 – R Working Girl –Has won to out of four races at Aqueduct and has won her only race at today’s distance – Drops in class today and Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
7 – Bastet – Ran a disappointing race last time out but Bobbled at the break and bumped during the race – Drops in class today – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – Rainbow Gal – Did not like the sloppy track last race out so I will throw that race out – Drops in class today.
4 – Charlotte Webley – Just missed winning by a nose in her last race at Aqueduct and at today’s distance.
Alternate:
1 – Left Leaning Lucy
2 – Mia Bea Star
Race 3
3 – Playwright – Finished 7th after hitting the gate and being bumped at the break – Drops in class today – Jockey in last 7 days has this record (24 8-2-3).
7 – Magnetron – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race only beaten a nose and earned the highest last race speed rating (tie) – The trainer wins 27% of the time 1st race after claiming a horse.
6 – Flowers for Lisa – Switches to a high % winning – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Trainer in last 14 days (14 6-1-1).
1 – Threethehardway – Had a disappointing race last time out tiring on a good track but hopefully the track will be better today and more to his liking – Drops in class today.
Alternate:
2 – Potantico
4 – Invest
Race 4
6 – Relate- Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Thrill of It – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – Lasix added.
8 – Clash A. J. – Ran a nice 2nd last race.
5 – Juggler – Camre 6-wide into the stretch and finished a disappointing 6th but could rebound with an extra furlong added – Has the highest last race speed rating – Trainer wins 50% of the races when using Lasix a 2nd time.
Alternate:
1 – Crawford County
9 – Joshua
Race 5
3 – Beyond Best – Has a high % winning trainer and the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 27% of the time when bringing a Beaten favorite back to race – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (24 8-2-3).
7 – Nobodyridesforfree – Ran a nice 3rd in his last race after having some trouble during the race at Aqueduct.
4 – South Street – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – The trainer wins 28% of the time when using 2 Lasix a 2nd time – Trainer in last 14 days (5 2-2-0).
2 – Awesome Aaron – Had trouble and ran 5th in his debut race – Well bet in debut – Blinkers added today – Sharp 4F workout on 17Feb Bel tr.t 4f ft :48.3 B 11/101.
Alternate:
5 – Writeitontheice
6 – Cheeky Tico
Race 6
7 – Forty Two Ace – Won last race Aqueduct the second at a row and earned the highest last race speed rating – Good 4F workout (Feb-17).
6 – Dr Ardito – Won last race at Aqueduct – High % winning trainer wins 31% of the races when bringing a Maiden winner back to race again.
5 – Breadman – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and jockey Jose Lezcano is in the irons.
2 – Son of an Ex – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race after off slow – The distance is something he can handle.
Alternate:
4 – Fenway
1 – Run for Boston
Race 7
6 – Easy to Bless – Won last race at Aqueduct – Highest last race speed rating – Highest speed figure at today’s distance.
7 – Sweet Willemina – Won last race at PARX The trainer wins 19% of the time when bringing the winner of their last race back to race – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Its Cold in Dehere – Ran 2nd in last race at Aqueduct.
4 – Aunt Kat – Finished 3rd in last race – Should improve at the shorter distance – Trainer in last 14 days (5 2-2-0)
Alternate:
3 – Piece of My Heart
1 – Hey Mamaluke
Race 8
7 – Bistrita – Won last race at Aqueduct – Jockey in last 7 days (24 8-2-3) – Sharp 4F workout (Feb-17).
5 – Ofalltheginjoints – Won last race at Aqueduct – Lasix added.
4 – Beverly’s Charge – Ran 2nd vs similar (on AW) in last race – Can improve at the shorter distance ñ Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Trainer in last 14 days (9 3-3-0).
1 – Lady Milagro – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – Highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – Jockey in last 7 days (18 5-2-3) – Sharp 3F workout (Feb-17)
Alternate:
9 – Rooski
2 – Sweet Surprise
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile (1Turn): 111 Races, 88 won by speed, 32 w2w – PP: Slight 4+ bias
5 – LIVE IN FIVE – ran best fresh, Top EP#s, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 2 very good works since last
6 – INOUAINTALKINTOME – 4SP# Increases, LP Improvement, LRSP>PAR, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, huge LP Advantage
1 – ELEGANT LAOBAN – Trevor and not much else
Race 2 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 38 Races, 27 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: 4-7 best, rail>2,3>8+
4 – CHARLOTTE WEBLEY – there could be a hot pace here and set up well, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
7 – BASTET – Biggest DROP 82-37, late pace regression in last, TOP EP/LP Combo, weight break
6 – R WORKING GIRL – Small Drop 45-37, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, some EP/LP regression,
3 – INVESTMENT GRADE – major 2/4/LP pace improvement in 1st off bench, QTA ran Feb 10, TOP EP#s, Top Pedigree
Race 3 – 1 Mile (1Turn): 111 Races, 88 won by speed, 32 w2w – PP: Slight 4+ bias
3 – PLAYWRIGHT – Top Pedigree, small drop 28-22, Trevor on fire 24/8-2-3, trouble in last, bets LP# by a wide margin
7 – MAGNETRON – missed by a nose, in last, strong across race Pace improvement, 1st of claim, 40/147 tr Rob Altras, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
2 – POTANTICO – 4 SP# increases, weight break, tie TLRSP#, QTA Feb 5
6 – FLOWERS FOR LISA – BTN FAV, has 2nd best EP#s, small weight break, ITM 13/20 @ Dist, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
Race 4 – 7 Furlongs – 70 Races, 48 won by speed, 24 w2w – PP: 4+bias
7 – THRILL OF IT – 1st LASIX, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, wight break, bullet work
6 – RELATE – TOP EP of experienced horses, some LP improvement last out,
4 – COLLOQUY – probably best of 1st time starters, Dylan Davis, $125k, 32f good works since Jan 3rd
5 – JUGGLER – TLRSP#, Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, significant LP Improvement in last
Race 5 – 1 1/8 Miles – 24 Races, 16 won by speed, 10 w2w – PP: slight outside in 7-1, 8+ gets bonus
8 – RED LINE OVERDRIVE – Top EP#s by a wide margin, gets 1st Lasix, well bet in both starts, 17f works since last – like Kendrick on Speed
3 – BEYOND BEST – 2nd off a layoff, bullet work since last, BTN FAV, Tr; T Pletcher 95/351, Top Pedigree
7 – NOBODYRIDESFORFREE – going route for the first time, should be part of EP, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
4 – SOUTH STREET – coming in from SA, 17f works since last on Jan 21, 2nd off a layoff
Race 6 – 1 Mile (1Turn): 111 Races, 88 won by speed, 32 w2w – PP: Slight 4+ bias
6 – DR ARDITO – Chad Brown 89/279 following maiden score, off since April 33f works since Dec 31
7 – FORTY TWO ACE – 3rd off a layoff, TLRPS#, huge LP and SP# increase in last, worried about bounce, LRSP>PAR, QTA fan Feb 4, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
4 – FENWAY – has such huge EP advantage, has to be in top 4, bullet works in 3/6 workouts, 27f works since Jan 5 – not sure speed is best fit for Trevor
5 – BREADMAN – 2nd off layoff, resume says he will be better, Top Pedigree. 4 SP# Increases
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs – 130 Races, 86 won by speed, 43 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 4+ fair
6 – EASY TO BLESS – won last by 7 lengths, 4SP# Increases, TLRSP#, AQ 4/2-2-0, Distance 9/6-2-0, LRSP>PAR, QTA Ran Feb 4, touch concerned about a bounce, top LP#s by a lot
4 – AUNT KAT – 2nd off a layoff, resume says as good or better, Top Pedigree, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
5 – ITS COLD IN DEHERE – 3rd off a layoff, as good as any of previous two, sometimes better, 4/LP improvement in last,
3 – PIECE OF MY HEART – give advantage over 2&7, prefer Keenland Shipper to Parx, 1st off the claim 28/83 tr Danny Gargan
Race 8 – 6 Furlongs – 130 Races, 86 won by speed, 43 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias, 4+ fair
5 – OFALLTHEGINJOINTS – won debut on lead, gets 1st Lasix, Kendrick on the lead, 28f works since Dec 27, TOP EP#s, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
7 – BISTRITA – won last, breaking maiden by 6 lengths, solid 4/LP improvements, 2 really good works since,
1 – LADY MILAGRO – TLRSP#, small 2/4/LP improvement in last, DROP 100-55, QTA Ran Feb 6, bullet work since,
3 – FROSTED WILD RIDE – winner two in a row, big 2/4 improvement in last, Top Pedigree, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
