Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Aqueduct Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Sam Houston
Aqueduct Racetrack Horse Racing Tips and Analysis
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Any Minute – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 27% of the time when using 2nd time Lasix.
1 – Jokemeister – Finished 2nd in her last race at PARX Racing and has Jockey Trevor Mccarthy who in last 7 days has this record (19 8-0-2).
5 – R Boy Cheekum – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Lasix added
2 – Aranjuez –Should improve at the shorter distance – Jockey in last 7 days (10 3-2-2).
Alternate:
6 – Boneyardholler
7 – Analysis
Race 2
3 – Runninsonofagun – Won last race at Aqueduct – Jockey in last 7 days (19 5-4-1) – Good 4F workout on 19Jan Bel tr.t 4f ft :49.2 B 2/141.
1 – Printrack – Won last race at Aqueduct earning the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 21% 1st race after being claimed – Lasix added.
6 – Hoboken Jack – Lost all chance in her last race when she was Bumped at the break and taken up – Drops in class today – Sharp 4F workout on 19Jan Bel tr.t 4f ft :50 B 13/141
4 Bustin Pietre – Drops in class today – Should improve at the shorter distance – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Lasix added.
Alternate:
2 – Always Charming
5 – Silipo
Race 3
5 – Saratoga Beauty – Trouble last race Bumped break finished poorly throw out the race – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in last 7 days (11 3-1-1)
4 – Gringotts – Finished 3rd in last race at Aqueduct – Finished in the money in 50% of the time at Aqueduct winning two of the races.
3 – Keepmyeyeontheboys – The trainer wins 24% when shipping into race – Jockey Trevor Mccarthy who in last 7 days has this record (19 8-0-2).
2 – Big Al’s Gal – Has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 20% 1st race after claim -Jockey in last 7 days (10 3-2-2)
Alternate:
7 – Jen’s Battle
1 – Wait a Minute
Race 4
2 – No More Mischief – Bumped at break and pinched between which caused her finished poorly throw out the race The trainer wins 26% trainer when bringing back a beaten favorite back to race – Lasix added.
1 – Amazing Dream – Won last race at Aqueduct – High % winning trainer Todd Pletcher.
4 – Queen Cashmere – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race earning the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Saratoga Kisses Should improve while returning to a sprint -The trainer wins 27% of the time when using 2nd time Lasix – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days (6 4-0-1)
Alternate:
6 – Alicia’s Way
7 – Royally Blue
Race 5
2 – Good Skate – Ran second last two races and earned the highest last race speed rating – Lasix added.
1 – King of Hollywood – Finished second in her last race at Aqueduct -Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Kobe’s Legacy – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 26% when going from Maiden to Maiden -Claiming – The longer distance will help – Lasix added – Jockey in last 7 days (10 3-2-2)
3 – Gun Maestro – Came 6-wide into the stretch and finished 4th – Jockey in last 7 days (11 3-1-1) – Lasix added.
Alternate:
7- Nobodyridesforfree
8- Good Tip
Race 6
8 – Jerusalem Gates – Has the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 31% when dropping a horse down 2+ classes – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Breaking Stones – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – Bullet workout on 11Jan Bel tr.t 4f ft :50.3 B 1/26
6 – Actuary – Has done well at the track and distance.
1 – Coach Bahe – Highest speed figure at today’s distance – Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days (3 2-0-0).
Alternate:
9 – Indoctrinate
3 – Bellamy Dolce
Race 7
4 – Son of an Ex – Won last race at Aqueduct and got the highest last race speed rating (tie).
6 – Therisastormbrewin won her last race at Aqueduct earning the highest last race speed rating (tie) High % winning trainer Rob Atras.
5 – Run for Boston closed to be beaten only 1-1/2 lengths at a mile and now stretches out which should help – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters
3 – Make It in Ny Finished 3rd in last race – Switches to a high% trainer who wins 28% of the time 1st time after claiming a horse – Jockey in last 7 days (19 5-4-1)
Alternate:
1 – Kodiak Brown
2 – Straight Skinny
Race 8
5 – Missalpha – Finished in the money in ten out of fifteen races winning six – Early speed running style should help chances – Jockey in last 7 days (11 3-1-1).
2 – Dark Money – Finished in the money in last two races, winning one of the races – Switches to a high% trainer who wins 24% of the time 1st time after claiming a horse – Jockey in last 7 days (10 3-2-2).
8 – Steam Engine – Speed horse won has won at today’s distance 25% of the time – Drops in class today – Switches to a high% trainer who wins 28% of the time 1st time after claiming a horse.
4 – Dream Bigger – Won last race at Aqueduct, likes the track finishing five out of seven races in the money winning three of the races and likes the distance finishing four out of six races in the money winning three of the races.
Alternate:
3 – Golani Brigade
6 – Sicilia Mike
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs: 90 Races, 62 won by speed, 33 w2w – PP: mostly fair 1-3 and 8+ a touch better 4-7
4 – Any Minute – 3rd off the break, well bet in last, 3 SP# Increases, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
1 – Jokemeister – big 2f and 4f pace improvement in 2nd start, well bet at Parx, Top Pedigree, Trevor
6 – Boneyardholler – strong work on Jan 9, only DROP 50-32, EP w/ 1st Geld and Lasix
7 – Analysis – should be better in 2nd start, trouble in debut bumped pinched
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs: 90 Races, 62 won by speed, 33 w2w – PP: mostly fair 1-3 and 8+ a touch better 4-7
1 – Printrack – #1 EP #s, Top EP/LP Combo, LRSP>PAR, huge jump in race #2, sluggish works since, 1st Lasix
3 – Runninsonofagun – won last race with improved fractions and 2f/4f pace #s, Top Pedigree, Top Fractions
4 – Bustin Pietre – big DROP 500k-55 , 1st Lasix, like K Carmouche on frontrunners
6 – Hoboken Jack – another dropping from 500k – strong work since, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
Race 3 – 7 Furlongs: 42 Races, 31 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: A little outside bias
5 – Saratoga Beauty – top EP#s, Top Pedigree, All or Nothing at AQ 6(3-0-0), strong works getting ready
2 – Big Als Gal – 3 SP# Increases, 1st off the claim – 21% for trainer Kelly Breen, small wight break
4 – Gringotts – ran better fractions despite going to 1 mile from 6f, ITM 8/16 @ Aqueduct
3 – Keepmyeyeontheboys – Trevor, top LP#s, could be on/near lead in a field without a ton of ES
Race 4 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 30 Races, 20 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: 4-7 has an edge, all the rest even
1 – Amazing Dream – top EP/LP combo, won last close to the lead, 1st Lasix, Like Manny Franco on horses that can go forward
7 – Royally Blue – top EP number by a little over 2,5,6 – 1st Lasix, needs to run back one race in w2w win
5 – Saratoga Kisses – 3rd off a layoff, regresses a little in previous pair of 3-race cycles,
2 – No More Mischief – Top Pedigree, missed as favorite, been fav in both starts, hasn’t had a clean trip yet, speed in debut, 1st Lasix
Race 5 – 7 Furlongs: 42 Races, 31 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: A little outside bias
2 – Good Skate – Fastest 1/4 Fraction, Top EP#s by a good margin, TPLRSP#, 1st Lasix, 3rd off layoff
1 – King of Hollywood – just missed in last, consistent, 10% win/50% ITM,
4 – Kobes Legacy – Tom Carley Drop, 80-48, 1st Lasix with weight break
3 – Gun Maestro – Top Pedigree, Fastest 1/4 Fraction, 1st Lasix, much better fractions last out
Race 6 – 1 Mile (1 turn): 74 Races, 57 won by speed, 23 w2w – PP: rail underperforms, slight outside bias
2 – Blame It On Brutus – one w/ Tie TLRSP#, Top Pedigree, LRSP>PAR
8 – Jerusalem Gates – Tie TLRSP#, Linda Rice 31% down 2 classes, 45-28, LRSP>PAR
4 – Breaking Stones – 3rd off a layoff, bullet work since last race, tie top EP & EP/LP combo
5 – Mr. Fidget – has the top late pace $s by a decent margin, 14 f works since Dec 17, should be fit
Race 7 – 1 1/8 Miles: 17 Races, 11 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ have a small edge over 2-7
6 – Therisastormbrewin – Top EP#s, 3SP# Increases, inner race improvement across all levels
4 – Son of an Ex – Top EP/LP combo by decent margin, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 2 works since winning on Jan 6
3 – Make It in Ny – 1st off the claim for Tr; Rob Altras, 28% winner, Top Pedigree, ITM 3/6 WPS @ Aqueduct
2 – Straight Skinny – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, strong workout since, 2nd best EP in a race w/o a ton of EP
Race 8 – 6 Furlongs: 90 Races, 62 won by speed, 33 w2w – PP: mostly fair 1-3 and 8+ a touch better 4-7
8 – Steam Engine – by far top EP#s, 1st off the claim Rob Altras, bullet on Jan 5
2 – Dark Money – 2nd off a layoff, 1st off claim RRod – 25% 250 Races, better fractions last out
5 – Missalpha – 1 for 1 at AQ – w2w, should be a lot better in R2 off the bench, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
4 – Dream Bigger – 3 ws – 7 AQ runs – 3 wins 6 @ distance – cost 205K
