Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Gulfstream Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Charles Town
Gulfstream Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Lets Run Two – Finished 3rd vs similar in her only start and has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 19% of the time when he uses 1st-time blinkers – Well bet in debut – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record.
1 – Stormy Stella – Rail post is winning at 18% clip – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 30% of the time when dropping an entry down 2+ classes -Her best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
7 – Blame the Vets – She may improve while returning to a sprint – Nice workout on 11Feb GP 4f ft :47.3 B 3/51.
6 – Dance for Gold – Drops in class today – May improve with Blinkers added today.
Alternate:
2 – Magnolia Road
5 – Centsational Grace
Race 2
3 – Chucky – Has finished in the money in the last six races, winning three of the races – Switches high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. – The trainer wins 30% of the time 1st race after claiming a horse – The Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
6 – Mish – Won his last race at Gulfstream Park and has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
5 – Embrace My Uncle – A bridesmaid likes to run second at this track and distance – He has the Highest last race speed rating.
1 – Man On the Moon – Jockey Luis Saez in the last 7 days has this record (32 11-4-4) – Distance will not be a problem.
Alternate:
4 – Nixon Joy
2 – Khozy My Boy
Race 3
4 – Admiral Truffles – Won his last race at Gulfstream Park – Likes the track and distance finishing in the money 57% of the time winning 14% of the races.
3 – Awesome Family – Drops in class today – His best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Valhalla Air Base –Jockey Luis Saez in the last 7 days has this record (32 11-4-4) – Decent 4F workout on 26Feb GP 4f ft :48.3 B 23/99
1 – High Press – Highest last race speed rating – Decent 4F workout on 26Feb GP 4f ft :48© B 17/99.
Alternate:
6 – Toretto
5 – The Red Man
Race 4
4 – Mia Camila – Finished 3rd vs similar (on AW) in last race – Breeding suggests she will like the grass The Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-1-1)
9 – Luna Antonia – Returns to the turf where she ran3rd in two races in a row – The Jockey the last 7 days has this record (14 5-4-1).
10 – Ambar – Breeding suggests she will like the grass – Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and 2 Turf winners.
1 – Big Tentations – Best Turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed
Alternate:
6 – Ticket to Heaven
Race 5
2 – Equal Pay – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race – She made a large increase in her last race speed rating – Drops in class today – The Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-3-0) – Sharp 4F workout on 05Mar Pay 4f ft :49¨ B 3/29
5 – Egyptian Bride – The trainer wins 17% of the time in Sprints – Bullet 4F workout on 03Mar Pmm 4f ft :48.1 Bg1/19.
6 – First to Act – Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and 1 stakes winner The Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 2-0-2)
4 – Siempre Elegante – Jockey in last 7 days (32 11-4-4) – Sharp 3F workout (Mar-02)
Race#6
4 – Face of Victory – Has won four out of the last seven races at Gulfstream, finishing second in the other three races – He has a high % winning trainer and Jockey – He has the highest last race speed rating, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – Doo Wop Don – Ran 2nd vs similar (on AW) in last race – He likes the track finishing in the money eleven out of twelve races, winning three.
6 – Uncork the Bottle – Ran 4th last race after having trouble at the start of his last race – He has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey who has in the last 7 days has this record (32 11-4-4).
1 – Game Boy Benny – Rail post is winning at 20% clip – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
7 – Aequor
Race 7
7 – Phantom Vision – Won her last race Gulfstream Park on all-weather track after being off for 8 months – Has the highest last race speed rating.
3 – Whimsical Muse – Won her last race Gulfstream Park – Good 4F workout (Feb-27)
4 – Honey Pants – Drops in class today – Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) ñ Hot Jockey in last 7 days (14 5-4-1)
5 – Jeanie B – Drops in class today – May improve at the shorter distance – Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – Sharp 4F workout (Mar-01)
Race 8
2 – Rapturous – Finished in the money five out of five career races, winning three of the races – She has a High % winning trainer.
5 – Doll Baby – Won her debut race at Gulfstream Park earning the highest last race speed rating – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – She was well bet in debut.
8 – Amani’s Image – Returns after winning her last race at Tampa Bay Downs to try and with at Gulfstream Park – Lasix added.
3- Frosty Brew Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race – Drops in class today – Lasix added – The Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days (7 2-0-2) – Good 4F workout on 28Feb Pay 4f ft :49.2 B 4/13.
Alternate:
4 – She’s So Beautiful
Race 9
3 – Built Different – First time starter – The Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days (6 3-1-1) – Has good workouts for her debut.
9 – Miles of Smiles – Finished 2nd and 3rd in her first three career races – Breeding suggests she will like the grass and the Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters (but 0 Turf winners).
10 – Frageelay – Three good works at 5-furlongs on the turf.
5 – Winning Laugh
Alternate:
8 – Prettykeen
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 furlongs (AW) – 65 Races, 46 won by speed, 26 w2w -PP: Slight Rail Bias – minor inside out 2+
Three have early speed but usually fade, one presses the pace but doesn’t gain much ground and a trio that try to close, but don’t pass many late.
4 – LETS RUN TWO – has the top EP/LP combo by a wide margin, room to improve in 2nd career start
1 – STORMY STELLA – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, one of three dropping 35-23, tr: Gerald Brooks 23/77 downs 2 classes
6 – DANCE FOR GOLD – top 2f pace#s by a little, top 4f by a wide amount, 2nd after a layoff
8 – ROUGH ENOUGH – DROP 35-23, showed a little pop at the start of her last, could improve in 2nd off the bench, expect to run much better than 30-1
Race 2 – 1 Mile Dirt – 73 Races, 57 won by speed, 23 w2w -PP: inside out bias 1-7, 8+ best
Half the field are chasers with just one speedster to chase, the other two are mid-pack and back. Close to the front all the way is probably the way.
6 – MISH – has a significant EP advantage, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, LRSP>PAR
3 – CHUCKY – some LP improvement in last, could be co-pilot, tr Saffie Joseph Jr; 72/241 1st after claim, 12f good works since last
5 – EMBRACE MY UNCLE – 3rd after a layoff, best of previous 3-race cycle, 4/LP better last effort, likes to hang late. GP 8/1-5-0, Distance 5/0-4-0
2 – KHOZY MY BOY – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, DROP 54-37, 3SP# Increases, better round two out of the barn
Race 3 – 5 ½ Furlongs AW – 47 Races, 32 won by speed, 12 w2w -PP: plays evenly
Short race without a lot of giddy up and go out of the gates. The pace should set up for those close to the front. Tough race
1 – HIGH PRESS – slight improvement across the board, beat the 2 in last, similar workout since, 3SP# increases, 3rd after a layoff, TOP EP/LP combo, Top Pedigree, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
2 – VALHALLA AIR BASE – BTN FAV, L Saez by far top jockey in here, 2nd off the bench, maybe better?
6 – TORETTO – 2nd off the break, only 1 AW run, cutting back, usually slow to break in routes, DROP 36-28
3 – AWESOME FAMILY – though call over #5, DROP 36-28, should be close to the front all the way around the track
5 – THE RED MAN
Race 4 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – 12 races, 50/50, 2 w2w -PP: 0 rail, 8+>2/3>4-7
Not a lot of speed in here, so far just horses that chased the frontrunners and some that tried to close. Getting to the front could discourage the rest that have shown an unwillingness to fight.
4 – MIA CAMILA – good chance to be pacesetter, improved LP# in last, shortening up should help
5 – TAG HER – should be better in 2nd career start, upgrade to Luis Saez, well bet in debut, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
9 – LUNA ANTONIA – upgrade to Irad, 4/0-0-3 on grass, track upgrade from TB/LRL, strong 2/4f improvement in last and did show some early legs in sprint debut
2 – LONDON LADY
Race 5 – 7 Furlongs Dirt – 44 Races, 34 won by speed, 13 w2w -PP: slight rail edge 1-7, 8+ Bonus
With three first time starters, half of the field, you don’t know what the race shape might look like.
2 – EQUAL PAY – probably going to get bet down hard, working out well and should be on the lead
5 – EGYPTIAN BRIDE – best workouts of the 1st time starters, $400k horse
4 – SIEMPRE ELEGANTE
6 – FIRST TO ACT
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs Dirt – 87 Races, 78 won by speed, 37 w2w – PP: Rail Bias, 2/3>4+
One traditional early pace horse with 1s all around and 3/4 that like to chase with a couple of closers. Bias and pace set up say close to the front is the way home.
4 – FACE OF VICTORY – lone speed, beat many of these before, going to less than 4/5 ML odds
5 – DOO WOP DON – one of the few that showed improvement in his last, has back class on dirt, GP 12/3-5-3
6 – UNCORK THE BOTTLE – could be better in his 3rd off the bench, some LP improvement, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
1 – GAME BOY BENNY – tough call over #7, but 3rd off the bench, gets the 20% winning rail and Jose Ortiz
7 – AEQUOR
Race 7 – 5 Furlongs Turf – 44 Races, 29 Races, 19 w2w -PP: weird 2/3&8+ same> 1, 4-7 same
AEs not included, there really isn’t a pure frontrunner in here, so there isn’t a lot of early pace, so the winner is likely to be close to the lead all the way around.
5 – JEANIE B – biggest DROP by a lot 600k-62, Tie Top Pedigree, like many this is the first after a layoff, strong efforts in fresh runs 5/2-1 by a nose – 1-1) some fast works, TOP EP #s by a lot
7 – PHANTOM VISION – another that runs well fresh, TLRSP# on Jan 23, 4 works since 16f
4 – HONEY PANTS – bullet and go on March 4, has run OK after a break, DROP 100k-62
3 – WHIMSICAL MUSE
Race 8 – 7 Furlongs Dirt – 44 Races, 34 won by speed, 13 w2w -PP: slight rail edge 1-7, 8+ Bonus
Mostly chasers in here, don’t want to be upfront, but want to hug the leader. If the fractions are right, this could be a w2w race.
5 – DOLL BABY – TLRSP# in debut, 3 workouts since, should be forwardly placed
2 – RAPTUROUS – has the top EP/LP combo, 3rd after a layoff,
1 – STELLAR RIDE – should also be forwardly places, 3 good works sine her last,
8 – AMANI’S IMAGE – been working well, should be right off the pace, gets 1st Lasix, Top Pedigree, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
Race 9 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – 12 races, 50/50, 2 w2w -PP: 0 rail, 8+>2/3>4-7
Three first time starters versus mostly horses that haven’t shown anything yet. Of the experienced horse, one flashed speed, one tried to press, and others were way back. Would not be surprised to see a first-time starter win here.
9 – MILES OF SMILES – could be the pacesetter here and minus the 1st time starters, won’t have too much pressure from others
3 – BUILT DIFFERENT – 1st time starter with best works, Jose Ortiz w 3 of 7 w/ Tr Jose D’Angelo
10 – FRAGEELAY – 1st time starter with good works too, 19f since Jan 29
5 – WINNING LAUGH – been well bet in both starts
