Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Fair Grounds Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Fair Grounds Racetrack Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Sir Pokerface – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (25 11-3-2).
5 – Musada – Won last race at The Fairgrounds and got the highest last race speed rating (tie) – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – High Ridge – Off for over a month and returned and showed some early speed before fading a little at the end, needed that race and will probably do better – He drops in class today and has a good 4F workout on 10Mar FG 4f ft :48.2 B 6/39.
1 – Tin Delay – Comes back to The Fairgrounds where he finished in 50% of time in the money and he likes the distance, finishing in the money seven out of eleven races, winning two.
Alternate:
8 – Semi Charmed Life
Race 2
1 – Vicious Velma – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and got the highest last race speed rating (tie) – The trainer wins 23% of the races when bringing back a beaten favorite to race – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Veils and Vows – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – She has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
3 – Tethered – Dropped in class last race but did not have a good race as she bobbled was 3-wide coming into the stretch and was bumped at the 1/16 pole – May make amends in this race.
8 – La Danta – Ran 3rd in two of the last three races in a sprint and now goes to a mile which may help.
Alternate:
6 – Dressedtoimpress
2 – C C’s Cowgirl
Race 3
6 – Diamond Indy Skies – 2nd vs tougher in only start – Drops in class today -The trainer wins 29% of the races when going from Maiden to Maiden – Claiming races – She was well bet in debut t Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-2-2).
1 – Trafalgar Shore – Trafalgar Shore has a bullet workout 11Mar FG 3f wf :35.2 Bg1/.
2 – Dial It Up a Notch – Rail post is winning at 23% clip – She has the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 38% of the races when going from Maiden to Maiden – Claiming races – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Good 4F workout (Mar-06).
4 – Super Fire – She has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Sweet Truffles
5 – Queen Cordelia
Race 4
5 – Si Es Goya –Trying The Fairgrounds Racetrack for the first time and returning to a route – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
6 – Jurisdiction – Finished 3rd in last race and likes the distance winning five races out of fifteen starts.
3 – Woman With a Book – Ran 2nd in last race – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-2-2).
9 – Redoux – Switches to a high% winning trainer and has a good workout on 03Mar FG 4f ft :47.4 B 2/53.
Alternate:
2 – Landofthepharaohs
7 – Moment
Race 5
2 – Sum it up – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (25 11-3-2).
5 – Maw Maw’s Sophia – Beaten only 2 lengths in last start – She has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey – She has the highest last race speed rating, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
6 – Sho Nuff – Finished in the money in the last three races, finishing 3rd vs similar in last race.
8 – Box of Pictures – The trainer wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (13 5-2-3).
Alternate:
1 – Miss Underrated
4 – Goodnight Gracie
Race 6
7 – I Got Wings – Finished in the money in the last three races, finishing 3rd vs similar in last race and earned the highest last race speed rating.
2 – Honorary Guest – She ran a good race first time competing on the turf only beaten a length in her last start – The longer distance help and she may improve with Lasix being added.
8 – Turf Dancer – Drops in class today and the trainer wins 29% of the races when going from Maiden to Maiden – Claiming races – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-2-2).
1 – Freeze the Day – The trainer wins 23% of the races when bringing back a beaten favorite to race
Alternate:
4 – Plants and Birds
Race 7
6 – Perfect Cut – Ran 2nd in last race and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-2-2).
3 – Soul Coaxing – Won his last race at The Fairgrounds and the trainer wins 31% of the races when in the 3rd race off a layoff.
7 – Invisible War – Won last race at The Fairgrounds and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0) – Good 4F workout (Mar-08).
5 – Outlier – He likes the distance, and the Jockey is winning at this meet at a 20% clip.
Race 8
7 – Levee Proud – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (25 11-3-2).
2 – Mahoney Road – Finished 3rd vs tougher (on Dirt) in last race – switches to a high % winning jockey – His has the highest last race speed rating and Breeding suggests he will like the grass – Drops in class today- Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters and 1 Turf winner – Lasix added.
4 – Art Heist – Has a high % winning trainer and the Breeding suggests he will like the grass – He has a good 4F workout (Mar-12).
3 – Tempo Madness – Drops in class and Lasix is added -Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0)
Race 9
2 – Mr Elvin – Has done well at The Fairgrounds and returning to a sprint might just be the ticket – His best dirt speed is the fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Permanentdetention – Just missed winning his last race at The Fairgrounds and at today’s distance.
5 – Justa Buster– Finished in the money in the last three races running 2nd in his last race and getting the highest last race speed rating.
3 – Graded Vision – First time starter – The Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter and a good 4F workout on 11Mar FG 4f wf :48.4 Bg3/36.
Alternate:
8 – Heza Sexy Zong
6 – Big Merrill
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile – 51 Races, 31 won by speed, 20 w2w -PP: Strong inside 3 bias, 4+ the same
There is only one true frontrunner in here, a couple of pressers, but as many as six have only found the winners circle coming from off the pace. Speed should be able to hold up.
5 – MUSADA – has an enormous EP advantage, if he can run the first ½ around 48 seconds, he probably goes w2w
3 – SIR POKERFACE – jockey change to James Graham ITM 22/10/3-2
4 – HARBOR KNIGHT – tied TLRSP#, 2nd off a layoff, resume says a little better than the 1st, tr; Ron Faucheux 24% sprint to route
1 – TIN DELAY – 1st off the claim, switch to jy: Gerard Melancon winner 5/9 w/ tr: Keith Charles
Race 2 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 55 Races, 36 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: Plays fair
Most of these are usually nowhere near the front at any point in the race. The is one, however, that is lone speed and the morning line favorite.
1 – VICIOUS VELMA – as much as we don’t want the favorite, should really have the pace her way
5 – VEILS AND VOWS – tied for the TLRSP# despite some in-race bumping, fractions were deceptively better – same maybe a little faster at 1m70y vs 6f in prior starts
3 – TETHERED – lightly raced with her strongest 2f and 4f pace#s in last, decent work between races
8 – LA DANTA – could be the pilot or co-pilot out of the gates and tries a route for the first time. If she can get the right pace, can pull off the upset.
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs – 215 Races, 157 won by speed, 86 w2w – PP: strong Rail, inside three, inside out bias
For a distance that requires speed, there ain’t much of it in here. At best, three of the eight horses in here have tried to be close to the front at some point in their limited careers.
2 – DIAL IT UP A NOTCH – trainer Shane Wilson hits at 39% MSW-MCL, 42% 1st MCL, vs 9% overall, gets rail and strong work since last
5 – QUEEN CORDELIA – flashed speed in her last, leading for the 1st half mile, only horse to do that
6 – DIAMOND INDY SKIES – was well be at Delta Downs in debut, drops here, Ty says there is no speed like Delta Downs speed, could be towards the front
3 – SWEET TRUFFLES – 1st time starter with OK works, not a lot to beat
Race 4 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 55 Races, 36 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: Plays fair
This one is likely to have some hot sauce on the front end with three on the lead types and another three that pressure the pace. Speed with late legs and a late kick is where I’ll be looking.
3 – WOMAN WITH A BOOK – strong 2/4f improvement in last, should be moving late with top LP#s
9 – REDOUX – 1st off the claim, runs well fresh, like today, strong works
2 – LANDOFTHEPHARAOHS – another making 3rd start off the bench, ran better fractions though the first ½ mile last out
7 – MOMENT – should be close to the lead , 3rd start after a layoff, TLRSP# and Top Pedigree
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs – 215 Races, 157 won by speed, 86 w2w – PP: strong Rail, inside three, inside out bias
Half of the field of eight wants to step on the gas and go but can’t hold on late. The speed of the speed or a stalker.
2 – SUMITUP – the speed of the speed, change to Jy James Graham 22/10-3-2, Fastest 1/4 Fractions
8 – BOX OF PICTURES – missed as the favorite in her last, trainer Jose Camejo rebounds 28/90 (31%)
5 – MAW MAW’S SOPHIA – switch to B Henandez, 2 seconds in previous 2 rides, another BTN FAV 5/18 for Sturges Ducoing
1 – MISS UNDERRATED – FG 7/1-3-2, Distance 9/3-4-1, gets 23% winning rail
Race 6 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf – 46 Races, 28 stalkers/closers, 8 w2w -PP: Outside Bias 4-7>8
Closers win at the distance/surface and all but one, maybe, of the nine struggle to get out of the gates with any pace.
8 – TURF DANCER – TC Drop, MSW-MCL 29% winner for trainer Sam David, Jr vs 16% overall, shouldn’t be too far from the lead with some of the best LP#s
2 – HONORARY GUEST – been off more than a year, 26f works since Jan 27, could be upfront without a lot of pressure with 1st Lasix
6 – VALIANT MINI STAR – 1st time starter w/o much to beat here
7 – I GOT WINGS – runs OK first off the bench, TLRS#, decent work getting ready
Race 7 – 1 Mile – 51 Races, 31 won by speed, 20 w2w -PP: Strong inside bias, 4+ play the same
There is very little early pace in here, one front runner, a couple that like to press and five closers. The frontrunners should be able to set the tempo from start to finish.
6 – PERFECT CUT – 3rd start after a layoff, ran much better fractions in his last
3 – SOUL COAXING – another making his 3rd start off the break, tr Hugh Robertson hits 31% third off vs 7% overall
7 – INVISIBLE WAR – track drop from GP, SA, DMR, two good works including a bullet and go, 3SP# increases, despite coming off MDN win, Drop 60K purse to 28, biggest drop in here
2 – AMERICAN SMOOTH – won maiden il last with nice LP improvement
Race 8 – 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – 37 Races, 19 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, small penalty 8+
Most of the field likes to be closer to the back than the front. There is only natural speed type with 1s on the PPs and three that will pressure the pace.
2 – MAHONEY ROAD – should be towards the front with 1st time Lasix, DROP 120-46, strong works getting ready
7 – LEVEE PROUD – should chase the leaders but Fastest 1/4 Fractions
3 – TEMPO MADNESS –mid-pack horse with the big kick. 1st G, first Geld, Lasix, Top Pedigree, DROP 100k-46
6 – TWENTYONE N CHANGE – ran much faster early fractions last out, could be better in 3rd off the break
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs – 215 Races, 157 won by speed, 86 w2w – PP: strong Rail, inside three, inside out
This one might be on the quick side, there isn’t a true frontrunner with 1s across the pps, but five/six of the nine could be withing a length or so of the lead.
3 – GRADED VISION – a lot of these had plenty of chances to win. Going to go with the two first time starters expecting one to run well. Both are working very well getting ready
7 – CUSTOM PRAYER – see above
2 – MR ELVIN – moving back to 6f after trying a route, usually well bet
5 – JUSTA BUSTER – has the top EP#s and top EP/LP combo – could be better in his 3rd off the bench
Jared Bush’s Horse Racing Picks
