Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Oaklawn Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Remington Park
Oaklawn Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Jedrek– Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race and got the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Serbian Sailor – Finished 3rd in last race Oaklawn.
3 – Bourbon Delight – Finished 3rd in last race Oaklawn and has average workouts.
4 – Remember Normandy – The trainer wins 20% of the races when using 1st time Lasix – Should improve while returning to a route.
Alternate:
5 – Commanding Officer
2 – Other Times
Race 2
6 – Megatap – Finished in the money in eight of his nine career races, finishing 2nd in last race – Can improve at the shorter distance.
2 – Incorruptible– Finished 2nd in last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Windcracker – He has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and the trainer wins 24% of the races in the 2nd start w/turn.
3 – Appraisal – He has done well at the track and the distance will be no problem – The trainer wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race.
Alternate:
7 – Blame George
1 – Holding Pattern
Race 3
6 – Courtney Fay – Finished 3rd in last race – Should improve at the shorter distance.
3 – Miss Alpha Bella – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and received the highest last race speed rating – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Desert Glow – She improve her speed rating by 10 points and the longer distance may help.
1 – Poolside Manners – Throw out the last race as the saddle slipped – She showed speed before her trouble in the last race and she may again show speed – The trainer wins 18% of the races when running a horse in a maiden claiming race.
Alternate:
2 – Mandona
8 – Adele’s Bling
Race 4
2 – Untouched Elegance –Won three of her last four races, came in from Southern California and did not finish her first race at Oaklawn after exspericing trouble during the race – Drops in class today and the trainer wins 27% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
1 – Shi O’Shi – Won two of her last three races and received the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 26% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
6 – Hoptown Honey – Ran 7th in last race after checking at the 7/16 so I will ignore that race – The trainer wins 17% of the races in the 3rd race after a layoff – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Lovely Lady Lexi – Ran 6th in her last race after being bumped and bobbling at the 7/16 – She does well at today’s distance finishing in the money in 77% of the races, winning 31% of the starts.
Alternate:
5 – Fables Love Affair
Race 5
3 – Violent Pass – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 29% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
9 – Abdan – Finished 6th in his last race in the mud which it didn’t seem to like – Drops in class today and the trainer wins 28% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
6 – Unembellished – Tried tougher horses last time out may have gotten frustrated and just quit running – Drops in class today and the trainer wins 27% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
4 – Funandfunny– Finished 3rd vs similar in his last two races.
Alternate:
5 – Wise Khozan
8 – Ingersoll
Race 6
6 – Prioritization – Won two of his last four races – He has a high % winning trainer – Drops in class today.
2 – Dr Jack – Ran 5th in last race on an off track which he appears not to like and drops in to the claiming ranks today.
4 – Alex Joon – Finished 2nd in the race before his last one and recieved the highest last race speed rating.
1 – What a Country – Drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
3 – Last Martini
7 – Altered
Race 7
6 – G Money Liv – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 37% of the races when using 2nd time Lasix – She has a good 3F workout on 19Mar OP 3f ft :36.1 B 3/10.
11 – Milana – Finished in the money in two out of the last three races – She has early speed and David Cabrera is in the irons.
5 – Undecoded – Finished 2nd in her last race – The trainer wins 25% of the races in the first race after claiming a horse – Blinkers added today – Good 4F workout on 19Mar OP 4f ft :49 B 24/98.
4 – Simply Beguiled – Shorter distance could help – Good 4F workout on19Mar OP 4f ft :48¨ B 11/98.
Alternate:
8 – Fashionably Quick
Race 8
7 – Icy Stare Down – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – The trainer wins 32% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race.
4 – Pipeline Girl – Finished 2nd in her last race and received the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 25% of the races in the 2nd off a layoff.
2 – Com’ On Sweet Luv – Finished in the money in three out of the four career races and has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Stanley Market – Won her last race at Oaklawn Park and would not be a surprise if she wins again – She has a good workout on 11Mar OP 4f ft :48.1 B 7/114.
Alternate:
5 – Benedict Canyon
6 – Parlance
Race 9
2 – Forsaken – Had a terrible race last time out in the snow, I don’t like running in the snow and it appears he does not either – Drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Kilgore – He has the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 19% of the races when going from a Route to a Sprint – Blinkers are added today.
8 – Allo Enry – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. is in the irons.
9 – J’s Little Man – His best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed, and he has a good 4F workout on 27Jan OP 5f ft 1:02© B 4/26.
Alternate:
11 – Slightly Crafty
4 – Warning Label
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 1/16 Miles – 108 Races, 62 won by speed, 14 w2w -PP: Fair, slight penalty 2/3
Most in this group don’t turn on the jets coming out of the gates. Five of the seven have been way off the pace early on, one can press, and another has tried for the lead a couple of times. Forwardly place appears to be the right spot.
3 – BOURBON DELIGHT – has a big EP edge, 25f works since his last on Jan 28th – should be ready
6 – JEDREK – TLRSP# and dropping, resume says he’ll be better in 2nd start following a layoff
4 – REMEMBER NORMANDY – could be the pacesetter and would be a w2w threat w/ the right fractions
2 – OTHER TIMES – top LP#s and trying a route for the first time, gets a 7-pound weight break
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs – 226 Races, 149 won by speed, 66 w2w -PP: Fair, slight penalty 4-7
This is a balanced group with two that like to go to the lead, two that try come from behind and the other three have the versatility to be upfront if it’s slow on stalk/close if it’s fast. The versatile horses might have the edge here.
2 – INCORRUPTIBLE – drop in class should be enough, bullish 4f move in his last, is one of the versatile horses
6 – MEGATAP – probably ought to have the top spot, but long time off and OP works are blah
3 – APPRAISAL – has the top LP#s and 1st off the claim for Karl Brogerg, 24% win rate vs 17% overall
4 – WINDCRACKER – TLRSP# and drops here, has some back speed but can close as well, 2nd start for tr Cipriano Contreras 24% angle vs 11% overall
Race 3 – 1 Mile – 50 Races, 35 won by speed, 18 w2w -PP: Small Rail bias, 2-7 fair, 8+ penalty
Can’t get more balanced than three early speed types, two that chase and another three that want to close. I suspect that the speed and pressure horses will have the edge. The question is can they take advantage of their edge.
3 – MISS ALPHA BELLA – TLRSP#, should be better in 2nd off the bench, likely to be on/near the lead and has some of the best LP#s
6 – COURTNEY FAY – another that should vie for the lead and is dropping in class, always well bet
5 – DESERT GLOW – going long for the first time which should put her near the lead with a weight break 3rd off the bench
2 – MANDONA – biggest class dropper, improved LP in last
Race 4 – 6 Furlongs – 226 Races, 149 won by speed, 66 w2w -PP: Fair, slight penalty 4-7
This one could be quick to the quarter-pole with five of seven that were either on the lead or near the lead in their wins. The other two will try to run by tiring legs late.
1 – SHI O’SHI – BB – has the top EP and top LP, 1st off the claim and drop for Rob Altras, 26% and 36% respectively
2 – UNTOUCHED ELEGANCE – toss out the last, down 2 classes, 3/11 for Richard Baltras, fast track 4/3-0-0
7 – LOVELY LADY LEXI – last race is better than it looks in the PPs with faster fraction in the mud
6 – HOPTOWN HONEY
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs – 226 Races, 149 won by speed, 66 w2w -PP: Fair, slight penalty 4-7
A lot of early speed here with five of nine getting wins w2w and a chaser that hugs the leaders. The remaining three include a pair that can stalk and close. The other is usually never close at any point. Keep an eye on the two stalkers and possibly the speed of the speed.
7 – ROAD BIBLE – LS – it’s a wide-open spot, so let’s go for a price! 2nd off the claim for Karl Broberg, 27% hit rate vs 17% overall, top LP#s and should be close to the front
3 – VIOLENT PASS – another value play, Tr; Rober Holthus deliver alpha 2nd off the claim, 29% vs 16% overall – better 2/LP #s last outing
1 – HOLIDAY TICKET – coming off the MCL win in 6th try, Claimed by Robertino Diodora, 24%, but not a fan of MCL last race out
9 – ABDAN – regresses a touch in his last on mud, fast track ITM 8/1-2-3, third off a layoff could be markedly better than last according to only other 3-race cycle.
Race 6 – 1 1/16 Miles – 108 Races, 62 won by speed, 14 w2w -PP: Fair, slight penalty 2/3
Two horses with speed should get to the lead without a ton of pressure. There are two that can press but tend to stay behind and three closers. The race shape should benefit frontrunners.
6 – PRIORITIZATION – is dropping in class and could be better in 2nd off the break, distance 3/2-0-0
5 – BIG THORN – has the top EP#s and EP/LP combo, bullet work after claim tr: Timothy Martin 15% off the claim vs 6% overall
2 – DR JACK – is dropping in class and is coming off one of his best starts, could bounce or could be better in 2nd off the bench, solid 4/LP improvement
4 – ALEX JOON – usually runs well fresh, like today and will be charging late
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs – 226 Races, 149 won by speed, 66 w2w -PP: Fair, slight penalty 4-7
The race pace should set up for the frontrunners. Four like to be forwardly placed, one presses and six close. There is a first-time starter that could tip the scale one way or the other. Tough race
11 – MILANA – Top EP #s, improved late pace in last, could be better in 3rd off the layoff
6 – G MONEY LIV – dropping and 2nd w/Lasix – 38% for tr: Ron Moquett vs 12% overall, should be better in round two after a layoff
12 – CYCOLOGIST – making the TC Drop, winner 11/33 for trainer John Ortiz training OK getting ready
1 – OUTFORARUN – really tough call over #5, biggest TC Drop – suspicious though – MSW 84-20MCL
Race 8 – 6 Furlongs – 226 Races, 149 won by speed, 66 w2w -PP: Fair, slight penalty 4-7
This race could be a little quick on the frontend. Five of the seven in here like to ride pilot or co-pilot; however, there is only on true frontrunner with 1s or bust to the winners’ circle. Speed of the speed and late pace will probably be the key factors here.
7 – ICY STARE DOWN – missed as the favorite, tr: Brad Cox rebounds at 33% – 170/516 – better in 2nd off the break
3 – STANLEY MARKET – won her last, improved ATB, fast workout since last, classic 3rd start after a layoff
6 – PARLANCE – bumped up her 2/4/LP#s in first start since Dec 19, ran better fractions and could be better today in second effort off the sidelines
2 – COM’ ON SWEET LUV – another Brad Cox making a second run off the bench – most consistent horse in the field
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs – 226 Races, 149 won by speed, 66 w2w -PP: Fair, slight penalty 4-7
It will be interesting to see which horse gets the lead. None have taken charge for more than a moment. Six of the 11 tend to pressure the front. That group is likely to produce the frontrunner, or maybe one of the two first-timers. If all the pressers got ballistic, then the three closers have a good chance.
2 – FORSAKEN – TC Drop 90k with top EP#s in the field, didn’t like the snow in his last
6 – KILGORE – Another TC Drop, finished 2nd in a pair of previous 50K MCLs – this one is 30
8 – ALLO ENRY – has the best LP#s in the field and improved his early numbers in his last
3 – MALINTENT – one of the first timers with some fast works getting ready
