Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Oaklawn Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Sam Houston
Oaklawn Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Admirably – Finished 3rd in last race, drops in class today and should improve at the shorter distance – The trainer wins 27% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.
5 – Carbon Stryker – Won his last race at Oaklawn Park getting the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 18% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (4 4-0-0).
4 – Town Champ – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and may improve at the shorter distance – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
6 – Jack Van Berg – Did not finished well in his last race but the shorter distance may be just what he needs – The trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-3-0).
Alternate:
3 – King of the Court
1 – Sturgill
Race 2
2 – Dixie Street – Won his last race at Oaklawn Park and switches to high % winning jockey Joel Rosario.
9 – Top Brass – – Won his last race at Oaklawn Park and the trainer wins 30% of the races with a claim repeater.
8 – Time Heist – Took 45 days off and now comes back, drops in class today and has a bullet workout on 19Jan’21 OP 4f ft :47.2 B 1/45 – Jockey Kylee Jordan comes in from Will Rogers Downs after doing very well there in the last few days.
1 – Chicory Blue – He switches to a high % winning jockey and drops in class today.
Alternate:
3 – Americain Joey
7 – Kierkegaard
Race 3
7 – Tiz McNamara – He won his last race at Oaklawn Park and likes this track finishing in the money six out of eight starts – He has a high % winning trainer Scott Becker.
4 – A. K. Safari – Won his last race at The Fairgrounds Racetrack, has the highest last race speed rating, and has a high % winning trainer – He has a good 4F workout on 26Mar FG 4f ft :48.2 B 7/36.
1 – Sports Fan – He drops in class today and the trainer wins 27% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.
5 – Southerner – The trainer wins 19% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race and the Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-1).
Alternate:
2 – Call of Honor
Race 4
6 – Salute the Flag – Ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and earned the highest last race speed rating – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a good 5F workout on Mar-20.
1 – Quality Chrome – She has finished in the money in five out of the last six races, so they added blinkers today to try and keep her mind on business.
3 – Dance It – First time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter and 1 stakes winner and has decent workouts.
2 – Lady Commander – Ran 2nd in her last race and has improved her speed ratings in each of the last three races.
Alternate:
4 – Pray Gloria
7 – Goldena
Race 5
5 – She’s Hamazing – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race, drops in class today and may improve while returning to a sprint.
7 – War Music – She switches to a high % winning jockey – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – She has Good 4F workout on 27Mar OP 4f ft :48.1 B 9/87
6 – Chai Tea – Finished 3rd in his last race and the distance should not be a problem.
9 – Jeri Dawn – She finished 2nd in her last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
2 – Sailaway and Hide
8 – Mazie G
Race 6
7 – My Boss Lady – She finished 3rd vs tougher in last race and the trainer wins 18% of the claiming races he has a horse entered in.
8 – Thetruthisthetruth – She switches to a high % jockey and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Beauty Day– Drops in class today and may to improve in 3rd start since layoff.
3 – Denali Rocket – She has won two out of ten races last year. She has a decent workout on 26Mar OP 3f ft :37¨ B 10/18.
Race 7
5 – Roaming Union – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race and received the highest last race speed rating – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – V. I. P. Who – Finished in the money in eight out of the last eight races, winning, four of the races – He likes the distance winning three out of five starts, finishing 2nd in the other two races.
4 – Most Sandisfactory –Tried tougher horses in his last race without success and now goes back to the class horses he can be competitive with – He best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed and the trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (24 9-4-0).
6 – Lookin for Eight – He likes Oaklawn Park finishing in the money in 58% of the time, winning 17% of the races and distance will not be a problem.
Alternate:
1 – Bear Alley
2 – Morocco
Race 8
7 – Leading West – Ran 2nd in last race and the trainer wins 21% of the races when bringing beaten favorite back to race – He has a trainer /jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 2-2-0).
9 – Tiz Rye Time – He won his last race at Oaklawn Park at today’s distance while earning the highest last race speed and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (19 5-2-5).
5 – Sol Del Sur – Finished 3rd after taking 3-1/2 months break and the Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (20 5-1-2).
1 – Notary – Finished 3rd Finished 3rd in last race and his best dirt speed is close to the Avg winning speed.
Race 9
6 – Mammoth Spring – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race receiving the highest last race speed rating – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-1).
3 – Point Blank – Finished 2nd only losing by 2-lenghts in last race – blinkers are added today.
10 – Hardscrabble – He is a first- time starter and his Sire wins 16% of the time with 1st time Starters – The breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
1 – Peripatetic – Drops in class today.
Alternate:
8 – Braska
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 ½ Furlongs – 14 Races, 11 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: Strong, Strong rail bias, 2-7 fair, 8+ big penalty
Every horse in here can press the lead and five of the seven have won essentially on the lead (4 had 1s across the board and 1 was 2nd by a neck at the 1st call). Speed of speed and stalkers with late legs.
1 – STURGILL (LS) – had a hefty lead on the likely favorite in his last, loses a ½F, second off the bench and gets a 7 pound weight break – 13 vs the 2
2 – ADMIRABLY – won his last easily in his first race at OP after coming in from SA. Trainer Wayne Potts is hot, winning 4 in a row.
4 – TOWN CHAMP – has been strong at OP 11/5-4-0, better fractions in last
7 – CAVE RUN – showed LP improvement in his last and should run a similar race in the 3rd off the bench per his previous 3-race cycle
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs – 249 Races, 163 won by speed, 72 w2w -PP: plays fair
Six of the nine tend to race mid-pack and back at the first call. There are two frontrunners, and one is cheap speed that tends to fade, sometimes the other can hang on. The last to be mentioned can win as the pilot or copilot.
9 – TOP BRASS – is the lone E/P horse and come in from Sam Houston and stays in the claiming ranks, 31% winner for trainer Karl Broberg vs 17% overall
2 – DIXIE STREET – is first off the claim for tr; Steve Asmussen w/ jockey Joel Rosario – better 2/LP# ins last
3 – AMERICAIN JOEY – TLRSP# and drops in class, last race is better than it looks with 4,5 & 6f fractions were faster in his last
1 – CHICORY BLUE – upgrade to jy Reylu Gutierrez with a drop in class and some better late run in his last
Race 3 – 1 1/16 Miles – 115 Races, 66 wins by speed, 16 w2w – PP: Fair
There could be some pace in here with three that want the lead and another two that try to go forth from time to time. The other three are closers.
7 – TIZ MCNAMARA – 3rd after a layoff, 25% winner for tr Scott Becker, claim repeater 28% vs 17% overall, ATB improvement
4 – A. K. SAFARI – won his last by 13 lengths with 4th SP# increase, ATB pace#s improvement, much faster fractions in last despite going 70y longer, and has two solid works since.
2 – CALL OF HONOR – has back speed and is the lone E/P in the field, meaning he can take the lead or sit off the pace and win either way
1 – SPORTS FAN – 2nd off the claim, 27% for tr Karl Broberg vs 17% overall, dropping in class after running better in the 2nd half of the last race
Race 4 – 1 1/16 Miles – 115 Races, 66 wins by speed, 16 w2w – PP: Fair
None of the experienced horses have been able to take the lead, a couple have been close but for the most part they all end way behind the winner. A couple of first-time starters could shake things up.
6 – SALUTE THE FLAG – ATB improvement in first at route, 15f works since March 14, should be fit
3 – DANCE IT – 1st time starter and really not much to beat here
5 – SLEEPLESS DREAM – same as #3, good works getting ready
7 – GOLDENA – struggled to get off to a good start in first two races, since she has four fast works including 2 bullets.
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs – 249 Races, 163 won by speed, 72 w2w -PP: plays fair
Two will likely head out for the lead and it’s who knows what to expect field after that. Some may try to keep up or do something new but, for the most part, a lot of these fit in the never close category.
7 – WAR MUSIC – tr John Ortiz is coming on the show tonight, Eddie C angle, bullet two works back, and then a fast maintenance work after
5 – SHE’S HAMAZING – is dropping in class and has last night’s guest, Kylee Jordan, weight break and cutting back should help
9 – JERI DAWN – TLRSP#, 3SP# increases with much better end of the race numbers
8 – MAZIE G – could get an uncontested lead if the 11 doesn’t fire following nearly 8 months in the barn, some minor improvement in her last start
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs – 249 Races, 163 won by speed, 72 w2w -PP: plays fair
Not a lot of speed in here with one true frontrunner, on that can take the lead or ride shotgun and six others that tend to be mid-pack and back that like to come late.
8 – THETRUTHISTHETRUTH – going to be on the lead with top EP#s by a decent margin, better fractions in first after a layoff and should improve in round 2
6 – BEAUTY DAY – way better ATB in her last, should be better in race three off the bench
7 – MY BOSS LADY – ATB improvement too, has some of the most late punch in the field
3 – DENALI ROCKET – best of the rest
Race 7 – 1 1/16 Miles – 115 Races, 66 wins by speed, 16 w2w – PP: Fair
It’s a Nelly race, it could get hot in here with six of the eight horses that have been on the lead or pressed the leaders on the way to the winners’ circle. Speed of the speed and late legs.
5 – ROAMING UNION – TLRSP#, should be better in 3rd start after a layoff. Likely on/near the lead all the way around the track.
4 – MOST SANDISFACTORY – 1st start after a rest, won his last fresh run, making 2nd start after the claim for Robertion Diordoro hits at 24% vs 20% overall
3 – V. I. P. WHO – three races at OP, 3 seconds, never off the board at distance 5/3-2-0, gets a weight a break
6 – LOOKIN FOR EIGHT – consistently runs some of the best speed numbers but doesn’t appear to much upside but also has the highest floor.
Race 8 – 1 1/16 Miles – 115 Races, 66 wins by speed, 16 w2w – PP: Fair
There is very little speed in here. One horse tends to be upfront most of the time, three can pressure lead but are found mid-pack or back more frequently, and four closers.
9 – TIZ RYE TIME – TLRSP#, one first OP race with ease. Race was even better than it looks on paper with better 2/4/6F fractions despite going 1/16 longer.
7 – LEADING WEST – OP 5/1-2-2, Distance 7/2-3-1 missed as the FAV in last, trainer John Ortiz rebounds at 22% nest out w/ BTN FAVS
5 – SOL DEL SUR – could be better in 2nd after a layoff, has two good works since his last effort, should be fit
1 – NOTARY – should be closing, but tough to do in a 4 horse field
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs – 249 Races, 163 won by speed, 72 w2w -PP: plays fair
It would be easier to press the all button. Most of these had no chance to win after the ½ mile call. Seven are “closers” with many that were never in it from start to finish, maybe as many as showed some interest in chasing the leader(s), but for at least 2/3 that’s a generous reading. One horse moved out early in both of his races and should get the lead here.
6 – MAMMOTH SPRING – should have no problem getting the lead, improved ATB in second career start and drops in class off the TLRSP#
1 – PERIPATETIC – major increase in late run, significant SP# increase, lightly raced w/ just two races
10 – HARDSCRABBLE – first time starter with decent connections, sire wins at 16% in first starts, but works are blah
8 – BRASKA – has the top LP#s in the field, usually well bet, consistent performer, probably not the winner but ITM
