Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Pimlico Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Woodbine
Pimlico Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – My Mamba – His Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, and he has decent workouts.
4 – Coffeewithchris – Drops in class today – Heavily bet in debut and has three bullet workouts in a row.
5 – Dontinvademyspace – Drops in class today and the trainer is winning at a 50% clip, but he has very few starts in the last two years although he has a high% win rate.
7 – Tiz No Clown – Drops in class today and he has a good trainer and jockey.
Race 2
4 – Simmard Shenanigan – She won a race at Penn National then traveled to Laurel and ran 4th at mile on a sloppy track but received the highest last race speed rating.
3 – Gold Time Vixen – She has finished in the money 52% of the time, winning 18% of the races during her career – She has won two out of five races this year.
2 – Miss Moreno – She ran 4th after coming wide into the stretch as the favorite but she has a trainer who wins 17% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
1 – Postino’s Secret – The rail post is winning at 25% clip, and she has finished in the money in both races she has ran in at Pimlico.
Alternate:
5 – Arbutus
6 – Life in Flash
Race 3
1 – California Bella – The rail post is winning at 25% clip, she has the highest last race speed rating, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – The trainer wins 28% of the time the 2nd time they start a horse, and she has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-1).
3 – Alittlesliceof Pie – She ran 2nd in her last race at Laurel Park and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (10 4-2-2).
5 – Daily Planet – She is a closer and the additional distance of today’s race will help her running style and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
6 – Wet My Beak – She drops in class today, was well bet in debut and the trainer wins 24% of the time when using 1st time Lasix.
Alternate:
4 – Saints Victory
2 – Foretell
Race 4
7 – Ultimate Irony – He has finished in the money in the last three races, finishing 2nd vs similar in the last race – His trainer wins 17% of the time with a horse who has taken a 46–90-day break. He has shown that he likes the turf.
13 – Samui Sunset – He ran 8th in his first race back in April after a 6-month break but had an excuse as he was bumped during the race and came into the stretch wide – He has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (12 4-1-3) and has Samui Sunset performed well on the turf in the past.
9 – Mighty Meister – He won his last race on the turf at Aqueduct and received a good speed rating.
4 – Rookieoftheyear – He comes in from Laurel Park after finishing 8th in the mud, winning the previous race to compete for the first time at Pimlico and drops in class today.
Race 5
5 – Chrisatude – He finished 4th vs similar in his last race only beaten 2- lengths, the trainer wins 32% of the time in the 1st race after claiming a horse and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-3-2).
6 – Fast Cash – He finished 4th after having plenty of trouble in the race, has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – My Sacred Place – He has done well at Pimlico Park in the past and finished in the money at today’s distance in 50% of his races – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the trainer wins 22% of the time when bringing a horse back from a 46-90-day break.
4 – Cooke Brothers– He drops in class today and has finished in the money in 50% of the time at Pimlico.
Alternate:
2 – Victory Given
Race 6
6 – Callyourightback – He ran 2nd in his only race at Pimlico Park, drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
9 – Scaredy Cat– He ran 3rd in his debut race at Laurel and then tried turf and did not like it, now he is back to dirt where he may perform better – The trainer wins 20% of the time in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and he may improve with Lasix added.
4 – What Say You – He showed speed early in his debut race after being well bet – The trainer wins 33% of the time when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
7 – Doublbarrelbourbon – His Jockey in the last 14 days has this record (10 4-2-2).
Alternate:
5 – Ninetynine Excuses
Race 7
3 – Except Temptation – She has finished in the money in 100% of the races this year, winning the last race at Tampa Bay Downs on the turf.
8 – Who Knows What – She has finished in the money in the last nine races, winning one of them – She ran 2nd (on Dirt) in her last race and now returns to the turf where she finished in the money in four out of six races, winning one of the races and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (14 5-3-1).
4 – Why Not Tonight – She won two races in a row and then tried the turf without success, she is now back to the turf where she has done better – She has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and the trainer wins 22% when shipping a horse in to run.
7 – My Candy Girl – She lost all chance in her last race when the jockey lost the irons –Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, the trainer wins 39% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (16 6-3-2) -She has a good 4F workout on 05May Del 4f ft :48 Bg2/31.
Alternate:
2 – I’m Blushing
6 – Helluva Lady
Race 8
2 – Texas Tower – He won his last race at Laurel Park, getting the highest last race speed rating and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 3-0-0).
1 – Dejohn – He ran 2nd in the last three races in a row – The rail post is winning at 23% clip and the trainer wins 28% of the time in the 1st race after claiming a horse and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0).
3 – Illustrious – He has the best speed rating in the race and is having a good year finishing in the money in 60% of the races, winning 20% of those races.
5 – Rebel Victory – He tried turf without any success and figures to improve while returning to dirt – Drops in class today and the trainer wins 22% of the claiming races he enters a horse in – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (10 4-2-2).
Alternate:
4 – Silent Service
6 – Rockin Ron
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 4 ½ furlongs, 2 races, both w2w – PP: 1 from rail, 1 4-7
5 – DONTINVADEMYSPACE – jy Angel Cruz won 20% and ITM 53.1% in Pimlico sprints last years, tops for anybody with 50+ mounts
2 – ROSCO – if you like the 1, you have to like the 2 as well as he has similar works
4 – COFFEEWITHCHRIS – was the 1.80 favorite in debut, now drops from MSW to MCL, but last wasn’t good
6 – MY MAMBA – fist time starter with OK works, trainer James Lawrence II hits at 20% debut MCL
Race 2 – 1 1/8 miles, 12 races, 50/50, 2 w2w -PP: strong rail, inside 3 bias, 8+ zero wins
4 – SIMMARD SHENANIGAN – 3rd after a layoff, better ATB in her last, TLRSP#
2 – MISS MORENO – Charlie Marquez was top jock in last Pimlico meet, fractions were a little faster in last
3 – GOLD TIME VIXEN – is dropping in class and is catching a weight break, she won the last time she ran at this level
1 – POSTINO’S SECRET – this one will be coming from way, way back. Has two runs at Pimlico with 2 seconds.
Race 3 – 1 1/16 miles, 119 races, 85 won by speed, 37 w2w – PP: rail bias, the rest play fairly even
1 – CALIFORNIA BELLA – already has a win, was DQd, dropping from OC 62.5
6 – WET MY BEAK – first time Lasix, MSW to MCL drop, was bet to $2.80 to 1 in debut, 2 OK works since
4 – SAINTS VICTORY – 1st time starter that doesn’t have much to beat
5 – DAILY PLANET – has the best speed figure in debut by a wide margin, regressed in next two, came off the bench to show signs of life
Race 4 – 1 1/8 miles TURF, 8 races, 5 won off the pace -PP: strong inside 3 bias
7 – ULTIMATE IRONY – close in his last three on turf, bullet and go work on April 28th
2 – RECYCLE – has been off since October, took a similar break last year, came off the bench for lone win
4 – ROOKIEOFTHEYEAR – 1st gelded and has some late ability, looks like he’s better on dirt, but debuted on turf so trainer Graham Motion must believe turf is the right surface
6 – HONOR MY WORLD – aside from #9, not much left to beat after some scratches, let’s take a flier that just need to run back one race
Race 5 – 6 furlongs, 165 Races, 112 won by speed, 61 w2w – PP: Inside out bias
6 – FAST CASH – TLRSP# and drops in class, ITM 12/2-1-4 at the distance, could be better in the 2nd off the bench
3 – MY SACRED PLACE – first off the claim, tends to run OK off the bench, a maintenance work since last race
5 – CHRISATUDE – Jy Jaime Rodriguez and tr Jamie Ness won 21/54 together with +0.76 roi
1 – CONFUSION BABY BOY – gets the high win rate rail and a weight break
Race 6 – 6 furlongs, 165 Races, 112 won by speed, 61 w2w – PP: Inside out bias
9 – SCAREDY CAT – was the 2-1 favorite in debut, gets LASIX here and weight break
6 – CALLYOURIGHTBACK – has some of the best EP #s at a distance where speed matters, also gets a weight break
4 – WHAT SAY YOU – decently bet in debut, co-pilot for first ½ mile, two maintenance works and could be better in race #2
1 – DR RAGS – could be better in his third start off a layoff, drops in class and has some of the best pedigree for the distance/surface
Race 7 – 1 1/16 miles TURF, 40 races, 24 won off the pace, 8 w2w – PP: slight 8+ bias
8 – WHO KNOWS WHAT – LS – has plenty of late pace and 6/1-2-1 on turf, PIM 3/0-1-1
7 – MY CANDY GIRL – has been off since November, been training very well since April 12, no problems and she’ll be rolling late
4 – WHY NOT TONIGHT – is an all or nothing horse with 3 wins in 5 turf races, one for one at Pimlico, TLRSP# and drops here
2 – I’M BLUSHING – tough call over #3m but Jevian Toledo top jockey and tr Brittany Russell win at 38% together
Race 8 – 1 1/16 miles, 119 races, 85 won by speed, 37 w2w – PP: rail bias, the rest play fairly even
4 – SILENT SERVICE – last race was better than it looks as it was a second faster
1 – DEJOHN – should be close to the pace all the way around the track and gets the high win rate rail
2 – TEXAS TOWER – not the biggest fan of horse coming off the maiden win, but if he repeats the same race, could be same result
3 – ILLUSTRIOUS – fist ½ mile pace numbers were stronger, dropping in class should help
