Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Turf Paradise
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Wishes and Dreams – She has finished in the money in five out of the last ten races at PARX Racing, winning two of the races – She has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
6 – Thatta Boy Girl – She had a terrible finished in her last race after being fractious and having a terrible start so I will ignore that race. She has a high % winning trainer, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Mrs. Crews – She won her last race at PARX Racing receiving the highest last race speed rating – The rail post is winning at 27% clip and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-2-2).
7 – Luscious Lola – She does well at PARX Racing finishing in the money 42% of her starts, winning 24% of the races and the distance will not be a problem.
Alternate:
3 – Angel Raphael
5 – Cotton Candy Cutie
Race 2
6 – Keeping the Peace – Two races back he came in from Laurel and finished 3rd vs similar and returned to Laurel and finished 6th so his connections decided to return to PARX Racing where he seems to be a little more competitive and switches to high % jockey Ruben Silvera who in the last 7 days has this record (18 5-3-1).
2 – Current Hope – He is trying PARX Racing for the first time after racing at Gulfstream Park last year where he earned the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and has a good 4F workout on 02Apr Parx 4f ft :49 Bg11/38.
4 – Causeididitmyway – He won at Del Mar last August and took an extended break ran a race here in January and basically just stopped – He had a very good workout on 16Mar Parx 4f ft :48.3 B 5/36 and then a maintenance work on April 2nd – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when he drops a horse down 2+ classes and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Big Bad Bud – He went up in class and ran in a couple of races that he was over his head in and now drops back down to the class of horses where he has been competitive. He likes the distance finishing 100% of the time in the money winning 25% of the races.
Alternate:
5 – Six Cider
7 – Classified Info
Race 3
4 – Outline – Closed to finish 3rd in her last race at 6-furlongs and know stretches out to a mile which will help – The trainer wins 18% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse, the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-0) and she may improve with Blinkers added today.
2 – Using Coconuts – Closed to run 2nd beaten a nose at 6-1/2 furlongs with Frankie Pennington in the irons two races back – She ran 4th at 6-furlongs with a different jockey and now Frankie Pennington returns to ride again and she stretches out to a mile which should work for her.
5 – Moonchild – She ran 3rd in her last race at PARX Racing – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when going from a maiden claiming to a maiden race – She can improve while returning to a route and she has a trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 4-2-0).
6 – Super Duper Fly – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race at PARX Racing – She has the highest last race speed rating; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and a trainer who wins 25% of the races when his entry races for the first time at route.
Alternate:
3 – Eight Danzas
1 – Smarty Pants Sandy
Race 4
8 – Mischievous Jones – He finished 3rd vs tougher in last race, earned the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and has a high %winning Jockey.
3 – Social Joe – He ran 2nd in last race at PENN National at today’s distance and has a decent workout on 30Mar at Parx 4f ft :50 B 11/31.
7- About the Multiple – Finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a high %winning trainer.
1 – Margin of Air – He finished 3rd in last race at PARX Racing, the rail post is winning at 20% clip, and he has trainer who wins 25% of the races when going from maiden to a maiden claiming race.
Alternate:
2 – Lucky Running Cat
5 – Nicky Da Fox
Race 5
4 – Espernsita – She won three races in a row and then ran last in her last race breaking from the outside post position running wide the entire race, so I think it is a throw out race – The trainer wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-0).
3 – It Can – She finished in the money in her last two races at PARX Racing, winning the last one and received the highest last race speed rating (tie) – The trainer wins 18% of the races when bringing the winner of their last race back to race again.
5 – Back Channel – She won two races in a row and then ran 5th on a muddy track which she may not have liked – She has a high %winning trainer, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – She has a good 4F workout on 02Apr Parx 4f ft :48 B 2/38.
6 – Centre Court Champ – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race in her last race getting the highest last race speed rating (tie) – The trainer wins 18% of the races when using 2nd time Lasix and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (15 4-0-1).
Alternate:
2 – Tiz Gracie
1 – Disco Deja Vu
Race 6
3 – Lady Brexit – She won two races in a row, and now is going for a hat trick, received the highest last race speed rating in winning the race and likes the distance.
5 – Lil Miss Hotshot – She has early speed and drops in class – She has finished in the money in 53% during her long career race career, winning 15% of the races.
6 – Londonderry – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing back a horse that won their last claiming race and the trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-1).
4 – Bella G – She Drops in class today and the wins 25% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (18 6-3-0)
Alternate:
2 – Hola Princess
Race 7
1 – Twisted Ride – He won two races in a row, the last one a 100K stakes race and drops in class today – He has high % winning Jockey Ruben Silvera who in the last 7 days has this record (18 5-3-1) and a good 4F workout on 05Apr Parx 4f ft :48.2 B 5/54.
3 – Liar Side Chat – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Stonegate – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-1).
4 – Spartak – He has finished in the money in the last three of the last three races, running 2nd vs similar in last race and jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-0).
Alternate:
5 – Eddie’s Charge
Race 8
6 – El Sobreviviente – He has finished in the money in four out of the last four races, winning two of them and running 2nd in his last race – His trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 4-1-3) and he has a good 4F workout on 05Apr Parx 4f ft :49 B 9/54.
9 – Easy Day – He came in from PENN National to try PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey – He has had a good career finishing in the money 81% of the time and winning 31% of the races.
7 – Fast Bob – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money 60% of the time and winning 20% of the races, the distance will not be a problem and he switches to a high% trainer.
8 – Midnightcharly – He has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
2 – Kate’s Golden Dude
Race 9
3 – Flattering Ruby – She won her last race at PENN National – She has the highest last race speed rating and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Seeking the Dream – She has finished in the money in twelve of thirteen races during her career, winning three of the races – She ran 2nd in last race at PENN National and the trainer wins 17% of the races in dirt starts.
1 – Bucks Some – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-2-2) and has a good 4F workout on 02Apr Parx 4f ft :49 B 12/38.
2 – Empress Deona – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race at PARX Racing; the trainer wins 22% of the races when bringing the beaten favorite back to race again and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (18 6-3-0).
4 – Wildcat Cartridge
Race 10
2 – Miss Dillingham- She has won four of her races out of the last six races at PARX Racing, has high % winning jockey Ruben Silvera in the irons and high % winning trainer Jamie Ness – She has the highest last race speed rating, the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 4-1-3).
6 – Bess – She has finished in the money in nine out of the last ten races, winning six of the races – The trainer wins 50% of the races when she drops a horse off a win, and she has a good 4F workout on 05Apr Pen 4f ft :47.1 B 2/35.
10 – Not a Trace– She ran 2nd in her last race after winning the two previous races, and she has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (15 4-0-1).
3 – Obstinate – She won two races in a row and now is going for a hat trick – She has a high % winning trainer who when he drops a horse in class off a win his horse wins 83% of the time and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (18 6-3-0).
Alternate:
7 – Miss Loyalty
8 – Beyond a Million
Race 11
9 – Austin Whylie – He closed in his last race only missing winning by a head at PARX Racing, at today’s distance and earned the highest last race speed rating – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-0).
4 – Fifty Sheas Ofgrey – He had a couple of disappointing races so he was given a break for six weeks and now has workouts that show that he may be ready to race well after a good rest – He was claimed last race by a high% winning trainer Michael Pino who is winning at a 18% clip during this meet.
8 – City Guy – He finished 3rd in last race and has finished 50% of the time in the money this year.
6 – Go Huskies –He has jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-4-2) and the distance should be no problems.
Alternate:
2 – Judicial Restraint
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 45 Races, 29 won by speed, 17 w2w -PP: Big Rail Edge, inside 3 edge, 4+ similar
1 – MRS. CREWS – won her last with 2/4/LP improvement, TLRSP#, gets the 27% Rail
7 – LUSCIOUS LOLA – distance 2/1-1-0 and has a lot of LP improvement
2 – WISHES AND DREAMS – should be better in 3rd off the bench, jy change to Dexter Haddock
4 – MAD MARY – Top EP/LP combo in the field, drops in class after being better in the first half-mile
Race 2 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 45 Races, 29 won by speed, 17 w2w -PP: Big Rail Edge, inside 3 edge, 4+ similar
2 – CURRENT HOPE – has the top EP and LP in the field, can’t pass what you can’t catch. GP track drop
6 – KEEPING THE PEACE – get Ruben Silvera, much better in the first half of the last start at LP
7 – CLASSIFIED INFO – cutting back in distance, could be part of the EP, 2/4 P#s exploded higher in last
5 – SIX CIDER – last race might scare away some, but fractions were faster at 6 ½ f than 5 ½ furlongs
Race 3 – 1 Mile, 38 Races, 22 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: outside in 7-1, 8+ penalty
6 – SUPER DUPER FLY – LS – probably shouldn’t be rated 1st, but is lone E horse and could be lone speed, TLRSP#, 11 f works since last and strong one in the middle
2 – USING COCONUTS – Denzel 9/0-4-1, three seconds in the fresh starts like today
5 – MOONCHILD – consistent horse, tr Penny Pearce winner 5/13 spr-spr-route, $250k horse
4 – OUTLINE – Denzel 5/0-1-3 all at Parx, 1st off the claim tr Guadalupe Guerrero 18% vs 11% overall
Race 4 – 1 Mile 70 yards, 100 races, 67 won by speed, 24 w2w -PP: inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
8 – MISCHIEVOUS JONES – TLRSP#, TC DROP, better 2f/LP#s, a little better fractions in last
1 – MARGIN OF AIR – 14f works since March 22, TC Drop for MSW 34, 1st Gelded, rides 20% rail
4 – ICY COLD – could be on the lead as potential lone E horse, gets a weight break, tr; John Servis 24% w sp-sp-route
5 – NICKY DA FOX – should be better in his 3rs start off the bench, better fractions at 1m70y than at 7f
Race 5 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 45 Races, 29 won by speed, 17 w2w -PP: Big Rail Edge, inside 3 edge, 4+ similar
6 – CENTRE COURT CHAMP – tie TLRSP#, 3rd off the bench, 3rd race in only other 3 race cycle was best
5 – BACK CHANNEL – Parx 3/2-0-0, Distance 5/1-3-1, strong work on April 2nd – 2/38 48 4f
3 – IT CAN – has the top LP#s in the field by a sizeable margin and there could be 4/6 chasing the lead
4 – ESPERNSITA – won her first three races, BTN FAV vs some of these in last, better 2/4f #s but ran out of gas, maybe peaked two back? Or a bounce back here?
Race 6 – 1 Mile 70 yards, 100 races, 67 won by speed, 24 w2w -PP: inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
5 – LIL MISS HOTSHOT -should not be too far off the pace and has the best LP#s
3 – LADY BREXIT – won two in a row and they weren’t close, better fractions by 2 seconds in the slop, not as worried at Penn to Parx as won lone Parx start 2 back
7 – SUBSIDIARY – could be on the lead with the top EP#s, but can also come from mid-pack
6 – LONDONDERRY -hard call over the 4, but don’t like BELLA Gs last, is the lone close in a field of chasers
Race 7 – 1 Mile, 38 Races, 22 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: outside in 7-1, 8+ penalty
1 – TWISTED RIDE – dropping from wining 100k ngstks, SP#up in all three starts, much better in the 2nd half of last race
4 – SPARTAK – only 1 win in 33 races, but ITM 18/29 at PARX, 5SP# Increases, trainer Ralph Riviezzo and jy Jeremy Laprida ITM 3/4 +16.15 ROI – wow!
6 – STONEGATE – $230K horse, 7 high quality races in last 10, 13f works since March 5
3 – LIAR SIDE CHAT – won its last easily, unfortunately regressed in 2/3 last 2nd races off the break
Race 8 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 45 Races, 29 won by speed, 17 w2w -PP: Big Rail Edge, inside 3 edge, 4+ similar
6 – EL SOBREVIVIENTE – is two for two at Parx, 1st Gelded, can win from front/middle/back
9 – EASY DAY – speed of the speed in a field of speed, one decent work followed by two maintenances
8 – MIDNIGHTCHARLY – drops from 100K NGStks after TLRSP#, 3rd off the bench, some faster fractions last out
10 – EGO MAN – a couple of good works getting ready, looks like he just needs a clean trip
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs, 99 races, 65 won by speed, 29 w2w, -PP: 3 from rail, slight inside out bias 2+
1 – BUCKS SOME – chased some fast fractions in last, big LP improvement with a decent work since
2 – EMPRESS DEONA – speed of the speed, 3rd off the bench, can she hold on?
3 – FLATTERING RUBY – Penn to Parx, not a big fan, she’s o-3, does have EP but also top LP#
6 – SEEKING THE DREAM – another Penn transfer, Distance 10/3-4-3
Race 10 – 1 Mile 70 yards, 100 races, 67 won by speed, 24 w2w -PP: inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
2 – MISS DILLINGHAM – back and forth with the 6 – PARX 14/6-2-1, 8 HQ races in last 10, Jamie Ness/Ruben Silvera
6 – BESS – beat the top choice and missed by a little in another, missed by no more than ¾ or won in 9/10
3 – OBSTINATE – Dropping off win, Scott Lake winner 5/6, winner 3 of 4 at the distance
10 – NOT A TRACE – major pop higher in the last, better ATB, Distance 3/2-1-0
Race 11 – 1 Mile 70 yards, 100 races, 67 won by speed, 24 w2w -PP: inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
9 – AUSTIN WHYLIE – strong late run in last, top LP#s, DISTANCE 5/1-1-1, 13/0-0-2 in all the rest
7 – HEATED BATTLE – has the top LP#s, if he can get off to a clean start, he has a strong chance without a lot of EP that can stick
6 – GO HUSKIES – gets a weight break and has some of the most consistent speed figures
8 – CITY GUY – tough call over the 4 as both are the only 2 E horse, but the last two for the 4 – ouch
4 – FIFTY SHEAS OFGREY
