Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Penn National
Parx Racing Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s handicapping
Race 1
3 – The Robert – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race at PARX at today’s distance- Drops in class today – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (10 4-0-2).
2 – American Roma- Won last race PARX easily at today’s distance and earned the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Flatexcel – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – High % winning trainer – shorter distance may help – Sharp 4F workout (Jan-25)
7 – Blugrascat’s Smile–Drops in class today – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
Alternate:
5 – Dennard
1 – Taino
Race 2
5 – Malibu Anthem – Won two races in a row and now going for hat trick – Likes Parx winning two out of three.
7 – Live Aid – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race and earned the highest last race speed rating (tie) – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (10 4-0-2).
8 – Posseineffecttoo – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 4-3-0).
3- Jade Delta – Closed to win her last race at 6-1/2 furlongs and now stretches out to 7-furlongs – High % trainer – The trainer wins 25% of the races with Claim repeater.
Alternate:
1 – I’am a Unicorn
2 – Yellowstone Girl
Race 3
8 – Carmeltini – Ran 2nd in her last race at PARX Racing – She has the highest last race speed rating. Likes the track and the distance.
1 – Mani Pedi – Ran 9th in last race on a good track going wide throughout the race so I am throwing that race out. Prior than the last race she won two out of four races. Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-1-3).
2 – Successful Legacy – Likes to go to the front and lead to the wire winning the race before the last one using that running style.
4 – Canoochee – Likes the distance winning four races – Finished in the money 52% of the time during her career, winning 14% of the races.
Alternate:
5 – Fairy Wish
7 – Cotton Candy Cutie
Race 4
2 – Alpha’s Candy Man – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Improved speed racing in the last three races.
9 – Gruntled – Switches to a high % winning jockey and the trainer wins 29% of the races when bringing a Beaten favorite back to race – May improve while returning to a sprint
4 – Jovial – Has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 21% of the races 1st race after being claimed – Well bet in debut.
7 – Its About My Time – Drops in class today – Has decent workout
Alternate:
10 – Nona Rac
Race 5
5 – Gavichi – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Her best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0).
2 – Call the Po Po – Won last race at PARX at 5.5f and now going 6-furlongs which, I think she can handle – Hot Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0).
1 – Frame This – Has a High % winning trainer and Jockey – Second try at PARX after having some trouble in the last race.
9 – B B’s Rocket – Has done well at PARX finishing in the money 50% of the time.
Alternate:
3- Three Potatoe Four
9- B B’s Rocket
Race 6
8 – Emma’s Touch – The trainer wins 28% of the races when going from Maiden-Claiming to Maiden – Lasix added – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 4-3-0).
7 – Nyssa – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race
5 – Moonchild – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race at PARX after coming in from Churchill Downs.
3 – Using Coconuts – Comes in from Woodbine to try her luck at Parx after receiving the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 50% of the races when going from AW to Dirt.
Alternate:
2 – Xenatown
1 – Shez a Doubletake
Race 7
12 – Daredevil Bull – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Angelofthegalaxy – Finished 2nd in last race her maiden race – Lasix added.
2 – My First Love – Finished 4th after Bobbled at the start – drops in class today – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0) – Sharp 4F workout (Jan-25).
7 – Irie Empress – Had trouble at the start of her last race breaking out of the start finishing 4th – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (10 4-0-2) – Lasix added
Alternate:
5 – Luna Fortuna
11 – Will Lemon Dance
Race 8
8 – Nimble Beast – Won last race PARX and received the highest last race speed rating – Likes PARX and the distance.
4 – Cobh – Has won two out of four races – Jockey Ruben Silvera is in the irons.
7 – La Waun – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 50% of the races when going from 17% with Sprints – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-1-3).
2 – Ragtime Blues – Bobbled at the start causing a bad break – The trainer wins 100% of the races when Shipping in – May improve with Blinkers added today – Likes the distance finishig first in three of eight races.
Alternate:
6 – Johnny Ritt
9 – Arrecife
Race 9
1 – Diggers Diamond – Won last race at PARX at today’s distance – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 4-3-0).
4 – Flat Out Flashy – He has high % trainer Jamie Ness, highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Piggybank – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race Has a high % jockey Ruben Silvera – Drops in class today.
6 – Baringer Spring – He has the highest last race speed rating and a good workout on 24Dec’21 at Parx 4f ft :48 B 3/43
Alternate:
5 – Runningforhome
8 – Kings Highway
Race 10
7 – Backsideofthemoon – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race and received the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and drops in class today.
6 – Fortheluvofbourbon – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – Drops in class today – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Dreams Untold – Won last race at PARX – has a good trainer – Drops in class today.
4 – Broad Street Bully – Won last race PENN National after being off nine months.
Alternate:
1 – New Commission
2 – Dontmesawithme
Race 11
8 – E J’s Revenge – Won last race at PENN National- Likes PARX and the distance – He has a High % winning Jockey – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
7 – Cantstoprunning – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Highest last race speed rating. Made a major speed rating increase between the last two races.
2 – Ty Ran a Homer – Ran 4th last race and now drops in class today – The shorter distance may benefit him – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 4-3-0)
9 – Classified Info – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – The trainer wins 23% of the time going from a route to a sprint -The shorter distance may be a plus.
Alternate:
5 – Loan Me Your Ear
4 – Catch Fire
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile: 16 Races, 9 won by stalkers/closers, 3 w2w – PP: 4-7 paly best, rail and 8+ underperform
3 – The Robert – LRSP>PAR, DROP 26-19.5, by far strongest last pace numbers
2 – American Roma – won his last by 10, LRSP>PAR, 7 high quality starts in 10 races
5 – Dennard – all or nothing at Parx, 3 wins in 7 races, DROP 26-19.5, down 2 classes, 4/10 winners
6 – Flatexcel – top EP by a decent margin, missed as the FAV, sneaky better fractions last out
Race 2 – 7 Furlongs: 15 Races, 9 won by speed, 0 w2w – PP: absolute outside in – no rail winners
5 – Malibu Anthem – Top Pedigree, won 2 in row, both at Parx in races, should be on the march late
7 – Live Aid – 3rd off a layoff, tie for top LRSP#, top EP/LP Combo, Top Pedigree, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
3 – Jade Delta – one in first effort at Parx, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions,
2 – Yellowstone Girl – weight break, early speed, 4 SP# Increases, 20 off or less w STP
Race 3 – 1 Mile: 16 Races, 9 won by stalkers/closers, 3 w2w – PP: 4-7 paly best, rail and 8+ underperform
8 – Carmeltini – Top Pedigree, 20 off or less w STP, top LP #s, ITM 16/25 @ Parx
4 – Canoochee – should be better in 2nd off layoff, weight break, 2nd best LP numbers
2 – Successful Legacy – Top Pedigree, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, weight break, W/P in 2 at Distance
1 – Mani Pedi – lowest level in last 10 starts, run back three of last 4,
Race 4 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 6 Races, 50/50, 3 w2w – PP: all winners 4+
9 – Gruntled – missed as even money fav, Linda Rice rebounds at 29%, should be part of early pace
4 – Jovial – ran top LRSP#, 1st off claim for L Rice, 21% angle, Top Pedigree only LRSP>PAR, TOP EP/LP
2 – Alphas Candy Man – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 5 SP# Increases, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
5 – Starship Gotham – should improve in 2nd off bench, 5 SP# Increases
Race 5 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 6 Races, 50/50, 3 w2w – PP: all winners 4+
5 – Gavichi – could be better in 2nd off the break, two good works since last, Top EP and EP/LP combo
6 – Seamialaugh – should be better in 2nd off bench, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, tie for Top Pedigree, Denzel Horse
2 – Call the Po Po – won last by 1 ½ lengths, much improved 2f and 4f pace numbers
9 – B Bs Rocket – tie for Top Pedigree, Denzel Washington horse
Race 6 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 6 Races, 50/50, 3 w2w – PP: all winners 4+
7 – Nyssa – 3 SP# Increases, top EP#s, Top Pedigree, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
3 – Using Coconuts – big DROP 123-42, OK works, best races in debut and one off the break
5 – Moonchild – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 10 F works since last race,
8 – Emmas Touch – even money ML, 1st Lasix w/ EP, OK works since last – vulnerable
Race 7 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 6 Races, 50/50, 3 w2w – PP: all winners 4+
12 – Daredevil Bull – LRSP>PAR, TLRSP#, BTN FAV Tr: Michael Pino 19% rebounds, top LP#s by far, Tie top EP/LP Combo
2 – My First Love – BTN FAV – Tr: Tyler Servis 19%, Tom Carley Drop, solid work on Jan 25
11 – Will Lemon Dance – flashed early speed in debut, gets 1st Lasix, TC Drop 42-26, Tie Top EP #, Tie RP/LP combo
1 – Without a View – most consistent speed numbers, semi-track drop
Race 8 – 6 Furlongs: 22 Races, 14 won by speed, 1 w2w -PP: 4-7, 8+ and then 2-3, no rail
8 – Nimble Beast – Top EP/LP Combo, Top Pedigree, LRSP>PAR, TPLRSP#, big win as Favorite
7 – La Waun – Biggest DROP 47-25, should be part of the early pace, cutting back to 6F should help
4 – Cobh – always well bet, 2W and Shows in 4 w/ J: Ruben Silvera
5 – Mission Wrapitup – bullet work on Jan 8, Top EP/LP combo, ITM 8/15 @ the Distance
Race 9 – 1 1/16 Miles: 6 Races, 4 wins by stalkers/closers, 1 w2w -PP: all wins 2-7
6 – Baringer Spring – 20 off or less w STP, LRSP>PAR, better in 2nd off a layoff, ITM 9/17 @ PARX
4 – Flat Out Flashy – J/T F Pennington/Jamie Ness win@30%, Top EP#s, Biggest DROP 65-26
1 – Diggers Diamond – won last by 4 ¾, small weight break, maintenance work since last
3 – Piggybank – tough call with #9 EL HREMANO, taking the higher win rate w/ J: R Silvera, and better late pace #s
Race 10 – 7 Furlongs: 15 Races, 9 won by speed, 0 w2w – PP: absolute outside in – no rail winners
6 – Fortheluvofbourbon – should be better 2nd off bench, Parx 9(5-0-3), two good works since last run
7 – Backsideofthemoon – LRSP>PAR, DROP 125-48, track drop, only ride for Trevor
5 – Dreams Untold – better in R2 off bench, PARX 10(5-2-1), won last by 3 ¾, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
4 – Broad Street Bully – won last despite traffic, solid work since, 2nd off the bench, extra furlong helps?
Race 11 – 7 Furlongs: 15 Races, 9 won by speed, 0 w2w – PP: absolute outside in – no rail winners
2 – Ty Ran a Homer – weight break, some early pace, DROP 26-18, cutting back should help
7 – Cantstoprunning – 20 off or less w STP, LRSP>PAR, 3SP# Increases, 3rd off the Bench
8 – E Js Revenge – 3rd after a layoff too, Tie TOP EP/LP Combo, should also benefit from cut back
9 – Classified Info – favorite last out, claimed Tr; Joe Taylor 11%, but 23% route to sprint, Top Pedigree
