Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Sunland Park
PARX Horse racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Fly Fly Bird – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 18% of the time in Maiden Claiming – The longer distance offers hope for improvement.
1 – She’s Got Game –Trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 4-3-2). Has a couple of good workouts.
3 – Brooklyn Mojo – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 31% of the time when dropping down 2+ classes – Lasix added.
4 – Whatruwaitingfor – Highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 17% of the time when his horse gets 1st time Lasix – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters -Lasix & Blinkers added – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 5-1-0)
Alternate:
2 – Don’t Tell Frankie
6 – Summertime Sue
Race 2
5 – S Man – Won last race at PARX – Has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Jarlian – Ran 2nd in last race at PARX – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-1-2)
6 – One Two Kid – Drops in class today – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 4-3-2).
1 – Sophos – Closed to win last race at PARX last race at 1-mile and now stretches out.
Alternate:
2- Jacohare.
7 – Longtail
Race 3
2 – Hard Sting – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 5-1-0)
3 – Flimflam Man – Won last race at PARX very easily – Trainer the last 14 days has this record (17 6-3-2).
7 – Sky Temple – Won last race at PARX – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-1-2) – Good 4F workout (Feb-08).
4 – Commissioner Dave – Finished 3rd in last race at PARX.
Alternate:
1 – Teller
6 – The Big Grey
Race 4
3 – Starship Rogue – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Has a high % winning Jockey and Highest last race speed rating.
8 – Fastlife – Finished in the money two out of three races at PARX – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 20% of the time the 2nd start w/turn – She has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
1 – Tribord – High % winning trainer – Eligible to improve in 3rd start since layoff.
2 – Page Eleven– Finished 3rd in last race at PARX.
Alternate:
9 – Conduttore
5 – Reach for Thestars
Race 5
3 – Prince Filip– Finished 3rd in last race -The trainer wins 24% of the time in Maiden Claiming – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-1-0)
6 – Palace Supernova – Has the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – Could improve while returning to a sprint – Blinkers added today – Sharp 4F workout (Feb-03).
1 – O’Brien – Drops in class today and should improve at the shorter distance.
2 – Kisses for Val – Switches to a high % winning trainer and a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (22 7-2-1) – May improve with Blinkers added today.
Alternate:
4- One Niner Tango
5- Fictionalfairytale
Race 6
5 – Wishes and Dreams– Won last race at PARX – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-1-0).
2 – Anginetti – Won last race at PARX – Has the highest last race speed rating.
7 – She’smyrisenstar – Finished 3rd in her last race and distance will not be a trouble.
4 – Grace’s Drama – Can improve while returning to a sprint and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
6 – Zensational Dixie
3 – Cotton Candy Cutie
Race 7
4 – Ruffy – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race and has the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 20% of the time when going from Maiden to Maiden Claiming.
7 – Kodapendent – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Lindros – High % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey – The trainer wins 30% of the time in 3rd race off a layoff.
1 – The Great Gazoo – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 28% of the time when going Route to Sprint – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 5-1-0).
Alternate:
2 – Celtic Heart
5 – My Brother Neil
Race 8
3 – Squan’s Kingdom – Drops in class today – Highest last race speed rating, the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-1-2).
4 – Tiz a Sharpie – Won last race at PARX – Likes the track and distance.
6 – Lorden’s Love – Had a good year last year finishing in the money 50% of the time, winning 20% of the races.
7 – Abhaile – Didn’t finished her last race as she stumbled and lost rider but won the race before easily.
Alternate:
8 – Absolute Anna
Race 9
1 – Breezy Gust – Won last race at PARX – Has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 22% of the time when the Winner of its last race runs – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Mojovation – Won last race Laurel – He has a high % winning trainer and Jockey -Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (17 6-3-2).
2 – The Sicarii – Ran 3rd in his last race – Decent workout.
5 – Pnutbutter Special – Had trouble last race which affected his finish – Drops in class today
Alternate:
3 – Mr Phil
6 – Word On a Wing
Race 10
7 – Bellarmine Hall – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Trainer the last 14 days has this record (17 6-3-2).
1 – Commissioner G – Won last race at PARX earning the highest last race speed rating – Has a High % winning Jockey.
5 – Kid d’Oro – He has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey – Drops in class today and the Trainer /Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 4-3-2).
9 – Mission Wrapitup – He has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey – Drops in Alternate:
2 – Open Lengths – Drops in class today
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 32 Races, 23 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: Inside out bias 1-7, big 8+ Bonus
5 – Fly Fly Bird – has the top LP#s, showed improvement in 4f#s in last, PARX 6/0-0-3
4 – Whatruwaitingfor – Top EP/LP combo, biggest DROP 31-29, track drop and 1st Lasix
1 – Shes Got Game – could be closer to the pace, if not pacesetter from the jump, could be better in 2nd off the bench, Top Pedigree, strong J/T combo with R Silvera and Jamie Ness
3 – Brooklyn Mojo – another 1st time Lasix horse, could be better in 2nd start off the bench, Tr Daniel Velazquez wins 7/22
Race 2 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 32 Races, 23 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: Inside out bias 1-7, big 8+ Bonus
5 – S Man – 4SP# Increases, 3rd off a layoff, ITM 7/2-2-2 Parx, Top LP#s
6 – One Two Kid – 3 decent works since Jan 10, last races Nov 28, PARX 5/1-2-0
7 – Longtail – should be pace setter, forget last as 2f/4f # were strong, should be better in 2ns off bench, missed by in last second start after similar first start
4 – Jarlian – is a ½ length from being 3-0 at the distance, Top Pedigree
Race 3 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 32 Races, 23 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: Inside out bias 1-7, big 8+ Bonus
3 – Flimflam Man top EP#s by a lot, late race improvement in last, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, LRSP>PAR, crushed field by 7 ½ in last
2 – Hard Sting – ITM 6/7 @ Distance, Parx 4/1-3-0, Tie Top Pedigree, LRSP>PAR, BTN FAV, Tr Ness rebounds at 27%, Top LP#s by a little
7 – Sky Temple -bullet work on Feb 4, 3 SP# Increases, late race improvement in last, top EP/LP combo by a nose
1 – Teller – tough call with 6/4, going with 3/2-0-0 at distance, tie TOP PEDIGREE, 3 average works getting ready
Race 4 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 32 Races, 23 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: Inside out bias 1-7, big 8+ Bonus
1 – Tribord – Top Pedigree, Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, BTN FAV, 3rd off a layoff, a lot of EP here, but has top LP#s
3 – Starship Rogue – TPLRSP# in route debut, QTA last races Jan 26
8 – Fastlife – bet to 1/9 in last route, going from sprint to route should be forwardly placed, good mid race improvement in last
9 – Conduttore – lightly raced, improved nicely in second start in the early part of the race, another that should be close to pace
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 37 Races, 23 won by speed, 8 w2w -PP: no rail wins, others play fair
6 – Palace Supernova – ran TPLRSP# in last two starts, a strong angle, Tom Carley Drop 42-26, top LP#s and shouldn’t be too far off the pace
1 – Obrien – biggest TC DROP 80-26, should be on the lead, last fist start had 3 length lead in stretch, has top EP#s at PARX
3 – Prince Filip – hasn’t raced in almost a year, but strong works on Dec 11/Jan 6, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
4 – One Niner Tango – top EP#s, but big but, hasn’t raced in a year, keep an eye of early betting, follow the money.
Race 6 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 17 Races, 10 won by speed, 8 w2w -PP: Rail bias all else is fair
5 – Wishes and Dreams – Top Pedigree, top LP#s, won last by 2 ¾ @ Distance 5/1-2-0
2 – Anginetti – top EP #s, TPLRSP#, improved across the board in last, small weight break, LRSP>PAR, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, Q TA Feb 2nd
1 – Penance – first off the bench, only one work since Jan 6, BTN FAV 48/220 w Tr Scott Lake
7 – Shesmyrisenstar – top EP/LP Combo, Denzel at the Distance 5/0-3-2
Race 7 – 7 Furlongs: 24 Races, 13 won by speed, 4 w2w -PP: most fair, small rail penalty
4 – Ruffy – top EP#s, 2nd off a layoff, Tom Carley Drop 57.7-30, QTA Ran Jan 28, LRSP>PAR
7 – Kodapendent – top LP #S and could be mid-pack, decent workout since last effort
1 – The Great Gazoo – 3rd after a layoff, Tom Carley DROP 42-30, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
3 – Lindros – track drop, Tom Carley Drop 70-30, 3rd off a layoff, 3 SP# Increases
Race 8 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 32 Races, 23 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: Inside out bias 1-7, big 8+ Bonus
4 – Tiz a Sharpie – Top LP# but won last w2w, 2nd off a layoff, should be better than last, distance 6/1-4-1
3 – Squans Kingdom – first race since Aug 15, bullet work on Feb 2, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, DROP 50-26, ITM at PARX 17/19
2 – Successful Legacy – Top EP#s by a wide margin w/ 1 scratched, should be pacesetter, small weight break
7 – Abhaile – toss out last, stumbled lost rider, Distance 6/2-2-0, just needs to run back 1 race
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs, 37 Races, 23 won by speed, 8 w2w -PP: no rail wins, others play fair
6 – Word On a Wing – DROP 100-47, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, TOP EP#s by a wide margin, won 4 in a row at this level, Distance 6/4-0-1
1 – Breezy Gust – TLRSP#, much stronger fractions in last, 3 wins, a 2nd and 3rd w/ j Jomar Torres
4 – Mojovation – 3rd after a layoff, best of 3 in last 3 race cycle, 2/4/LP improvement in his last
5 – Pnutbutter Special – Top EP/LP combo, two good works since his last, Distance 13/5-0-1, just 1 win in 14 at other distances.
Race 10 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 32 Races, 23 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: Inside out bias 1-7, big 8+ Bonus
7 – Bellarmine Hall – 3rd after a layoff, top of 3 last 3 race cycle, small weight break, PARX 7/2-4-0, ITM 8/9 @ Distance, Top Pedigree
5 – Kid dOro – BTN FAV, J Ness 174/643, 2nd off a layoff, should improve
1 – Commissioner G – 4SP# Increases, won the last time coming off the bench, LRSP>PAR, only 1 OK work since last on Dec 29
11 – Skipin On Orchard – tough call between #3 and #9
3 – Nimble Beast
9 – Mission Wrapitup
