Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Doctor Doom – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race – Trainer in last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0) -Has highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today
5 – Eight Danzas – Drops in class today
3 – My Brother Neil – Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days (8 4-0-2)
1 – Kodapendent – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – Drops in class today -The trainer wins 33% of the races when a beaten favorite races again – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters
Race 2
3 – Iova– Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
11 – Wonder City – Drops in class today – trainer wins 33% dropping Down 2+ classes – Highest speed figure at today’s distance
5 – Allegretto – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Highest last race speed rating
8 – Speightster’s Gold – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race.
Race 3
6 – Misty Mauve – Ran 2nd vs similar in only start – Received highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 19% of the time with 1st time Lasix – Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters -Lasix added
7 – Frieder Fanatic – High % trainer Louis Linder, Jr. & High % Jockey Frankie Pennington
5 – Paper Mansion – Hot Jockey in last 7 days has this record (12 5-1-0) – Sharp 4F workout (Jan-12)- Bumped start
4 – Reid’s Fangirl – Finished 3rd in last race – May improve with Lasix added
Race 4
8 – Majestic Sky – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race and received the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
2 – Will Take Control – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race -The trainer wins 24% of the time 1st race after a claim – Sharp 5F workout (Jan-12).
1 – Enano – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – Drops in class today
9 – Mr. Shenanigans – Has a lot of early speed.
Race 5
6 – Perfect Day – Won his debut race at Penn National – Well bet in debut – Lasix added
1 – Mr Sandman – Won last race at PARX Racing- Highest last race speed rating – Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Lasix is added
3 – Crabs N Beer – Drops in class today – Trainer in last 14 days has this record (14 5-2-3).
5 – Father Walsh – Won last race at Finger Lakes – Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (8 3-2-2)
Race 6
7 – Icy Cold – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – The trainer wins 30% of the time with horse’s 1st time Lasix – Trainer in last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0)
6 – Undercover Kitty – The trainer wins 28% of the time with horse’s 1st time Lasix
4 – Uncle Gary G ran 2nd in last race and has the highest last race speed rating – Has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Lasix added
5 – Mischievous Jones – Well bet in debut – The trainer wins 30% of the time with horse’s 1st time Lasix -Trainer in last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0).
Race 7
8 – Divine Miracle – Finished in the money three out of the last four races, winning two races – Trainer /Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (8 3-2-2)
5 – Perfect Revenge finished 3rd vs similar in last race receiving the highest last race speed rating (tie) – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
6 – Rack Gin finished in the money in ten out of fourteen races last year, winning two races – Had a disappointing race after having a poor start and wide trip
1 – Cant Stop This Man finished in the money four out of the five career races, winning two races – Sharp 4F workout (Jan-12)
Race 8
5 – Victory Built ran 2nd vs similar in last race receiving the highest last race speed rating -His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – blinkers added today.
8 – Dancing Dragon – Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (8 4-0-2).
6 – Clemenza finished in the money in 50% of the time last year – Good workout on 25Sep’21 Mth 3f ft :37 B 2/7
2 – Unimpeachable finished 3rd vs similar in last race- The trainer wins 29% in second race after a layoff
Race 9
8 – Florida Gator finished in the money in four of his career races – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – Drops in class today – Lasix added
2 – Mischief Road won his debut race at 7 furlongs at today’s track – He now stretches out to one mile and 70 yards which I think he can handle
9 – Uncle Irish best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Can improve with blinkers added today – Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (8 3-2-2).
5 – Noneedtoworry won his last race at PARX – May improve with Lasix added.
Race 10
9 – Barilko has a lot of early speed and should improve at the shorter distance – Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (8 3-2-2).
6 – Diesel drops in class today – Can improve at the shorter distance, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie)
7 – Mission Wrapitup – Likes the track and the distance – Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie)
2 – Monday’s With Mike has a high percent trainer
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 7 Furlongs: 6 Races, 5 won by speed, 0 w2w – PP: all wins 2-7
2 – Doctor Doom – 10% win/50% ITM, DROP 42-30 MSW-MCL, highest last race speed figure
1 – Kodapendent – 2nd Best ES#, DROP 42-30 MSW-MCL, Beaten Fav, Tr; Rob Reid, Jr. rebounds @ 33%
5 – Eight Danzas – Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, DROP 42-30 MSW-MCL
3 – My Brother Neil – Big track to smaller track drop, top EP#s, DROP 42-30
Race 2 – 1 Mile 70 yds: 10 Races, 9 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: fair 1-7, 8+ has the edge
3 – Iova – Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, 10% win/50% ITM, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, TOP LP#s
5 – Allegretto – LRSP>PAR, 3 SP Increases
8 – Speightsters Gold – better 6 f fractions last out, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
11 – Wonder City – down 2 classes, 33% W – Tr Cathal Lynch
Race 3 – 6 1/2 Furlongs: 3 Races, 2 won by st/clrs, 1 w2w – PP: All winners 4-7
6 – Misty Mauve – LRSP>PAR, Top EP/LP by far best in field, First time Lasix
1 – Martinis Amica – DROP 80-42, best race by far, decent work since last
4 – Reids Fangirl – First Lasix, early speed, Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, Top Pedigree
7 – Frieder Fanatic – solid debut, should be better in race #2, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, Top J/T
Race 4 – 1 1/16 Miles: 4 Races, 50/50, 1 w2w – PP: 3 winners 4-7
8 – Majestic Sky – Top LRSP, DROP, 20 off or less w STP, LRSP>PAR, better in round 2 off the bench
2 – Will Take Control – 1st off the claim, 24% winner for trainer Daniel Velazquez, 3rd off layoff, even last
1 – Enano – tied for the top LP#s, small drop, ITM 4/6 @ Parx
4 – No Tolerance – small drop, small weight break, better fractions in last out
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs: 10 Races, 6 won by speed, 0 w2w – PP: no rail, outside in bias
1 – Mr Sandman – Win By > 1 Lengths, 3 SP Increases, Top LRSP, first Lasix with speed
6 – Perfect Day – won debut by 5 ¼ Lengths, gets first Lasix, Top Pedigree, 2 Fast Opening 1/4 Fractions
4 – Southern Runner – DROP 100 to 42, 3rd off the layoff, last 3rd was best off the 3
5 – Father Walsh – Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, good work on Dec 15, Ness/Silvera combo hits at 32%
Race 6 – 1 Mile: 9 Races, 5 wins by speed, 2 w2w – PP: Rail and 4-7, 0 for 8+
6 – Undercover Kitty – Beaten FAV, trainer Cathal Lynch rebounds @ 36%, 1st Lasix
7 – Icy Cold – improved a little from debut, first Lasix with some early pace, fraction better
4 – Uncle Gary G – TLRSP#, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, speed first Lasix, better in 2nd route
5 – Mischievous Jones – decently bet in debut, top EP#s by a wide margin, 1st Lasix w/ speed
Race 7 – 7 Furlongs: 6 Races, 5 won by speed, 0 w2w – PP: all wins 2-7
8 – Divine Miracle – Win 40%, Tied Top Pedigree, LRSP>PAR, Win By > 1 Length, 4 SP Increases, Ness/Silvera
1 – Cant Stop This Man – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, Parx 4 (2-1-0), 4(0-1-2), much faster fractions
5 – Perfect Revenge – 20 off or less w STP, LRSP>PAR, 3rd off a layoff, 3rd was best of last 3 race
2 – Maine – top EP#s, top combo of EP/LP combo, Tied Top Pedigree, tough call with #7 Excursion
Race 8 – 5 1/2 Furlongs: 7 Races, 5 won by speed, 2 w2w – PP: all winners 4+
2 – Unimpeachable – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, BTN FAV, Tr: Kathleen Demasi 27%, 2nd off layoff
6 – Clemenza – Top Pedigree, top EP/LP combo in competitive field, Parx 3(0-2-0)
5 – Victory Built – 20 off or less w STP, Parx 7(0-3-1), TPLRSP#, small drop, only in field
7 – Bucks Are Moving – 10% win/50% ITM, 3 SP Increases, ITM 9/14 @ Parx
Race 9 – 1 Mile 70 yds: 10 Races, 9 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: fair 1-7, 8+ has the edge
10 – Nostalgic Run – Top Pedigree, early speed, 1st Lasix, Good works getting ready
2 – Mischief Road – won debut by 6 ½ lengths, could be better in race #2
8 – Florida Gator – first Lasix with some EP, Big Track to Small Track drop, always well bet
9 – Uncle Irish – top Debut SP# by far, lowest level since Debut, Small Drop, Ness/Silvera
Race 10 – 6 Furlongs: 10 Races, 6 won by speed, 0 w2w – PP: no rail, outside in bias
6 – Diesel – drops in class, strong EP#s, 3 PS increases
7 – Mission Wrapitup – 1st off claim for Michael Pino. 20% angle in 260 starts, bullet work on Jan 8
9 – Barilko – J/T combo Silvera/Ness, 1st off claim, 31% winner, drops of claim 30% winner for Ness
2 – Mondays With Mike – has some of the best LP#s, 6 F looks like right distance with 2/3 career wins
