Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Penn National
PARX Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Showing Off- Finished 3rd in his only start – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie) – The longer distance may just be the ticket he needs – He has a good 4F workout on 11Mar Parx 4f ft :48.2 B 4/30
4 – Brindisil – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race, received the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a high % winning Jockey – The trainer wins 29% of the time in 2nd time he uses of Lasix
1 – Ice Bar – Finished 2nd in his last race at today’s distance and took some time off but has been workout to return to race – The rail post is winning at 22% clip, and he has a decent workout in preparation for this race.
5 – Tequilamademedoit – Finished 2nd in his last race at PARX Racing and at today’s distance – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (8 4-0-2).
Alternate:
2 – Outworknforakiss
7 – Sebaray
Race 2
4 – Off Duty – He has finished in the money three out of the last four races, finishing 3rd vs similar in last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Drena’s Bullet – He has a high % winning trainer – Drops in class today – The rail post is winning at 20% clip.
2 – Thomas Knight – Likes the distance finishing in the money in 60% of the races, winning 33% of those races and having the highest speed figure at today’s distance – The trainer wins 23% of the time when going from a route to a sprint.
3 – Six Cider – He was a beaten favorite last race but the trainer wins 21% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
Alternate:
7 – Kowboy Karma
6 – Lucky Hero
Race 3
1 – Star Luck – Won his last race at PARX Racing – The trainer wins 20% of the time when bringing back horse after a 46–90-day break – He has a trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0).
2 – Fast Negotiations – Won last race at PARX Racing – He has the highest last race speed rating and the high % trainer who wins 24% of the time with a claim repeater.
3 – Catch Fire – Drops in class today – He likes the track and distance.
6 – Green Mansions – Finished 5th in his last race after coming into the stretch wide – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
5 – Gilded Warrior
7 – Ask Chuck
Race 4
11 – Fearless Fly – Ran 2nd in last race – Has a decent workout on 16Mar Parx 4f ft :49 B 9/36.
10 – Scotch Rock’s – The trainer wins 23% of the time when bringing back horse after a 46–90-day break – Blinkers are added today – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (8 4-0-2).
2 – Full Send – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters -The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (15 6-3-1).
3- Tequila Jr – He has the highest last race speed rating – Lasix is added – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-0-3) – Good 5F workout on (Mar-15).
Alternate:
5 – Fifty Cents
Race 5
5 – Sweet Samurai – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – She has a high % winning trainer and Jockey -Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Flat Out Phoebe – Finished 3rd vs similar in her last race at PARX and 2nd in her other race at PARX Racing, looking for her first win.
6 – One Wild Woman – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and received the highest last race speed rating and has a High % winning trainer.
3 – Sweet Ballerina – Won her last race at PARXRacing – She has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – A Bit Bad N Boujee
Race 6
7 – Just Add Moonlight – Finished 3rd vs similar in her last race – She has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and the trainer wins 22% of the time in the 2nd race off after a layoff – Her best dirt speed is the fastest among today’s starters (tie).
6 – Irie Empress – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and got the highest last race speed rating (tie) and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
2 – Reid’s Fangirl – She has finished in the money two out of the last three races – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-0).
3 – Lassie’s Notion – Did not do very well in her debut race but she was got off slowly and steadied – Lasix is added and she has a good 4F workout 16Mar Parx 4f ft :48.3 B 5/36.
Alternate:
5 – She Loves Gold
1 – Dune Jumper
Race 7
4 – B B Bad – Closed to finished 3rd vs similar in last race at 6-furlongs and adds an extra furlong which should fit his running style – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (15 6-3-1).
1 – Marathoner – Won his last race at Aqueduct and got the highest last race speed rating – He has a bullet workout on 08Mar Parx 5f ft 1:01.3 B 1/5.
3 – Alpha Sixty-Six – He has a decent workout on 24Feb Parx 5f ft 1:02.1 B 5/11and Drops in class today for the contest.
9 – Beaver Creek– Finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and the trainer wins 23% of the time the 1st race after claiming a horse – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Blinkers are added today.
Alternate:
7 – My Cousin Rich
6 – Diablo D Oro
Race 8
1 – Will Take Control – Broke slowly in his last race and closed to finish 3rd vs tougher in his last race at 7-furlongs and now extends out to a mile and 70yds – The rail post is winning at 22% clip – Drops in class today.
7 – Distractandattack – Finished in the money in five out of six of his last races – Drops in class today.
2 – Spartak – His speed ratings have improved in each of the last four races, and he finished 3rd in last race – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (8 4-0-2).
6 – Horse Be With You – Likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in six races out of fifteen starts – Beaten only 2- lengths vs tougher in last start and now drops in class today.
Alternate:
4 – Scoop Dawg
Race 9
1 – Frosted Indian – Won his last race at PARX Racing and has the highest last race speed rating – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie)- The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (15 6-3-1) – He has a good 4F workout on 15Mar Parx 4f ft :48.2 B 2/29.
3 – R Goodtime Charlie – Ran 2nd in his last race only losing by a neck. He has a high % winning trainer.
10 – Mach Trial – Ran 2nd in last race – Likes PARX Racing and the distance.
7 – What’s to Blame – Ran 2nd in last race at PENN National – He has been dropping in class to try and score a win.
Alternate:
9 – Mr. Roundtree
2 – Jw’s Third Mischie
Race 10
8 – Exit Right – Won three races in a row and received the highest last race speed rating – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (15 6-3-1).
4 – Double the Heart – Won two out of the three last races, finishing 3rd in last race – He has a high % winning trainer, and he may improve at the shorter distance.
5 – Silver Edge – Finished in the money three out of the last four races, winning one of the races – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (8 4-0-2)
1 – Kadens Courage – He has finished in the money three out of the last four races, finishing 4th in his last race on a good track – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
2 – Diggers Diamond.
Race 11
9 – Private Network – Switches to a high % winning trainer and high % winning jockey – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-0-0).
7 – Lazaretto – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – The trainer wins 26% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
1 – Expensive – Comes in from PENN National after finishing in the money four out the last five races, winning one of the contests – He has the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Kikkerland – Went up in class in the last race and was not competitive now drops to a class that he last won at – Should improve at the shorter distance and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
2 – Indirectly
8 – Spectacular Kid
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 73 Races, 47 won by speed, 17 w2w – PP: Inside 3 bias, 4+ play evenly
There isn’t a straight up frontrunner with 1s across its PP lines. As many as three have been close to the lead, three others are closers with a closer.
4 – BRINDISI – is the only TC Drop MSW-MCL, tie TLRSP#, 2nd Lasix John Servis 8/27 winners
3 – SHOWING OFF – is the other to tie for TLRSP# has the top LP#s by far, was bumped early
5 – TEQUILAMADEMEDOIT – is a Denzel horse 16/0-5-4 at PARX, Distance 4/0-2-1
1 – ICE BAR
Race 2 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 30 Races, 18 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: Rail bias, slight edge 2/3 over 4+
It’s a field comprised of mostly back-half horses, six of the seven prefer to chase the leader(s). The other tries to go forward at the break. With this mix, expect the speed horse or one of the closers that have shown a willingness to stalk to take the checkered flag here.
4 – OFF DUTY – is the lone speed with a sizable EP advantage and one of the only in here to show some improvement last out.
2 – THOMAS KNIGHT – is one of the others with in-race improvement last out, picking up his 4f numbers, tr Joseph Taylor hits at 23% route to sprint vs 16% overall.
1 – DRENA’S BULLET – gets the high win rate rail, dops in class and has better LP #s in his last start. Hard to take a 2-1 ML with this bunch
5 – CHAMPERS – barely showed more with his 4f numbers in his last before blowing a tire at the end, gets a weight break here and could bounce back with jockey switch to Jose Gomez
Raec 3 – 5 ½ Furlongs – 32 Races, 24 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: Slight 2/3 penalty all else plays evenly
There could be some early heat here with five of seven showing they are willing to go to the front or put pressure on the frontrunners. Pay attention to the speed of the speed and the stalkers with the best late pace.
1 – STAR LUCK – has a big EP advantage and EP/LP combo says this should be an easy spot, but off the bench record is concerning
6 – GREEN MANSIONS – 3SP# increases and second off the claim for Tr; Miguel Rodriguez, 15% angle, ran much better fractions in last cutting off more than 2 seconds from previous 6f time
2 – FAST NEGOTIATIONS – won his last and steps up slight from 5000n1y to n2y, ran the TLRSP#, tr; Louis Linder jr, 25/78 claim repeater, worry is last PARX SP# was way out of previous PARX range , bounce candidate
5 – GILDED WARRIOR – hard to put any in this spot, but he shouldn’t be too far off the lead, has some of the best LP#s and a work since his last race where he did improve late.
Race 4 – 6 Furlongs, 79 Races, 53 won by speed, 21 w2w – PP: rail 1 win in 79 races, all others play fair
Eleven horses, on the lead (or a neck from it) has been the only way to the winners’ circle for seven of them. Forget the track bias, this race should favor late legs.
10 – SCOTCH ROCK’S – might not be the best horse, but he could get the best setup as the lone closer in the field, has the best LP#s by a decent margin, 1st off the claim and solid work since
2 – FULL SEND – shouldn’t be to far off the lead and has the best LP of the group of frontrunners
11 – FEARLESS FLY – won his debut at PARX going w2w – drops to his lowest level since – maybe he regains that form in his 2nd start for tr; Alfredo Velazquez
9 – CAPTAIN CHAZZ –
Race 5 – 1 Mile – 31 races, 17 won by speed, 8 w2w – PP: 1-7 play fair, 8+ steep penalty
In their last 36 combined races, only once did any of these have the lead at the quarter pole. Four of the six like to sniff the lead, but not take it, the other two won closing. Whichever presser takes charges has a good shot of going w2w.
5 – SWEET SAMURAI – is that horse with the 1 on its PP and has the top EP by a long way and top EP/LP combo
6 – ONE WILD WOMAN – broke her maiden at the highest level (Steve Matthews) and ran the TLRSP# – young 3 YO is concern vs 4/5 YOLDS
3 – SWEET BALLERINA – broke he maiden last out, not the biggest fan, but was only the 2nd race and could continue to improve in start number three
4 – A BIT BAD N BOUJEE
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs, 79 Races, 53 won by speed, 21 w2w – PP: rail 1 win in 79 races, all others play fair
Six of the seven in this group have tried to get to the front in at least one of their starts, all fading of course. The other hasn’t shown much, so gets “marked” as a closer but really isn’t. Speed of the speed or stalker with late legs goes here.
7 – JUST ADD MOONLIGHT – is likely to be out front, pulling the cart and was her best in her 3YO debut, should be better 2nd off the bench for Tr Katleen Demasi a 23% winner vs 16% overall
2 – REID’S FANGIRL – has the top EP/LP combo in the field and was better from start to finish in her last with improved fractions
1 – DUNE JUMPER – the lone MSW dropper, the biggest drop in horse racing and gets a 7 pound weight break, her last was better than it looks on paper
6 – IRIE EMPRESS is a tough call over #5 but 3SP# increases better fractions in her last w/ tie TLRSP#
Race 7 – 7 Furlongs – 50 Races, 33 won by speed, 12 w2w -PP: mostly fair, slight edge 2-7
There isn’t a lot of early speed in here with just two frontrunners, three that will pressure the leader and try to pass late with four closers. The bias should work here with speed holding up.
4 – B B BAD – should be better in his third start off the bench, 4SP# increases, better fractions last out and strong J/T combo Ruben Silvera and Jamie Ness
1 – MARATHONER – should not be too far from the front with the top LP#s, bullet work since last
9 – BEAVER CREEK – 1st off the claim 24% winner vs just 5% overall for Daniel Velazquez, and should be better in 2nd off the bench
8 – IMAGINE THIS – is dropping in class and has a bullet workout in her last, small weight break,
Race 8 – 1 Mile 70 Yards, 73 races, 47 won by speed, 17 w2w – PP: Inside 3 bias, 4+ play evenly
There could be plenty of early pace with four frontrunners and as many as three that can pressure the leaders with just one closer and another that’s never close at any point in most races.
1 – WILL TAKE CONTROL – has the ability to win w2w or from way back, gets a weight break and ITM 5/1-0-3
7 – DISTRACTANDATTACK – should be one of the leaders and has the ability to stay there and should be better in his second off the bench
4 – SCOOP DAWG – ran the TLRSP# and takes a small drop in call, showed 2/4/LP improvements in last
2 – SPARTAK – is the lone closer in the field and is taking a big drop in class, last race better than it looks with stronger 2nd half numbers
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs, 79 Races, 53 won by speed, 21 w2w – PP: rail 1 win in 79 races, all others play fair
It’s a field that backfilled with five horses that like to sit in the back, another that’s never close. Upfront, there is one frontrunner, two that can take the lead or ride co-pilot and still win and one that chases.
3 – R GOODTIME CHARLIE – missed by neck in his last with much faster fractions, could bounce but trainer Felix Flores-Coba is 5/14 in 2nd off claim and horse should improve in round two after a layoff
1 – FROSTED INDIAN – should be rated 1st, but rail is 1 for 79
10 – MACH TRIAL – improved his 2/4/LP numbers and should be one of the horses coming the quickest late
6 – TIO WIL – first off the claim for trainer Everton Smith, Distance 6/3-0-1, just need to run two back
Race 10 – 1 Mile – 31 races, 17 won by speed, 8 w2w – PP: 1-7 play fair, 8+ steep penalty
There is plenty’o speed in here with four frontrunner, two that can press or lead and another that chases with two closers. Pace should fast which could favor the late runners.
8 – EXIT RIGHT – has the best EP and LP numbers in this field,
4 – DOUBLE THE HEART – improved big time with his 2/4 furlong #s in his last, cutting back could help
5 – SILVER EDGE – never off the board at the distance 7/3-2-2 is the lone presser with some of the best LP
6 – BORSA VENTO – 1st off the claim, 16% winner for trainer Alfredo Velazquez vs 6%, drop off the claim 3/9
Race 11 – 6 Furlongs, 79 Races, 53 won by speed, 21 w2w – PP: rail 1 win in 79 races, all others play fair
There could be some early giddy up and go with three pacesetters and a five that like to pressure and try late – the remaining three are never close. Speed with the best late punch is probably where the winner resides.
7 – LAZARETTO – has the best EP/LP combo – solid at Parx – 6/1-2-1
9 – PRIVATE NETWORK – upgrade to top Jockey Ruben Silvera, not so good at Parx 4/1-0-0
11 – AMERICAN QUALITY – beefed up his LP# in his last and can roll late
8 – SPECTACULAR KID – should be better in second after a layoff with a bullet work since last
