Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Sunland Park
PARX Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
7 – Leader of the Band – She has finished in the money in seven out of the eight races at PARX Racing, finishing 3rd vs similar in her last race – She has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer wins 29% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and the trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-1).
2 – Amaterasu – Won her last race at PENN National and she likes the distance winning the only race at today’s distance.
6 – Argentina Girl – Won her last race at PARX Racing at today’s distance despite having trouble during the race.
5 – Hay Buck – Ran a terrible race last time out but it was sloppy track, and I don’t think it was to his liking.
Alternate:
3 – Cloud Skipping
Race 2
4 – Irish Colonel – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race and switches to a high % jockey Ruben Silvera – The trainer wins 21% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a good 4F workout on Mar-19.
5 – R Goodtime Charlie – He went up in class and ran 5th and drops back down in class today where he is competitive. He has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Fast Negotiations – He has the high % winning trainer Louis Linder, Jr. and Fast Negotiations early speed running style helps his chances.
2 – Septimius Severus – He likes the track and distance.
Alternate:
9 – Hizaam
Race 3
5 – Noneedtoworry – He ran at Aqueduct in the G3 Gotham and finished 8th after being bumped at the start – Now he returns to PARX Racing where he won the last two races at today’s distance and drops in class.
2 – Vine Jet – Won his last race at PARX Racing and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-3-2).
1 – Nimitz – Won his last race at PENN National and the rail post is winning at 22% clip – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Turnpike Bob – Won his last race at PARX Racing – He has a high % winning trainer, and he has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
3 – Epic Luck
6 – Hotpot
Race 4
8 – Zippy – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey, drops in class today and has a good 4F workout on 22Mar Parx 4f ft :48 B 2/34.
11 – Mucho Macho Eddie – He has won two out of the last three races, has a high % winning trainer and jockey, drops in class today.
2- Brett’s World – He won his last race at PARX Racing after coming in from Gulfstream – He has done well at PARX Racing and the distance is something he can handle.
5 – Commissioner G – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race receiving the highest last race speed rating – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-0-1)
Alternate:
7 – Excursion
Race 5
2 – Peyton Elizabeth – She won two races in a row, the last one at Laurel, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Billieanne – She won two races in a row at PARX, took a 3-month a break and has been working out regularly for her return – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 4-1-0) – She likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in seven out nine races, winning three of the races.
7 – Precious – She has finished in the money six out of the seven races last year but had a disappointing race in her first race this year and now drops in class – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-1).
1 – Philadelphia Belle – Ran 2nd in her last race getting the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
3 – Crazy Bea
Race 6
5 – She’smyrisenstar – Won her last race at PARX Racing after finishing 3rd in her last five races in a row and received the highest last race speed rating in the winning race.
8 – Blunt Force – Ran 2nd vs similar in her first race since last August and returns to the same race class and goes in a longer distance which may help.
7 – Caramel Cream – She ran a disappointing 7th in her last race after coming very wide into the stretch, drops in class today and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
1 – Boca Royalty – Ran 2nd in her last race and the rail post is winning at 21% clip.
Alternate:
6 – Knock Out Kid
2 – Zensational Dixie
Race 7
1 – Kenner – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has a high % trainer and jockey and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Lasix is added.
8 – Masrour – He won his last race at PENN National and has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races the 2nd time he uses Lasix.
4 – Our Shot – He won his last race at Aqueduct and got the highest last race speed rating – He has a good workout on 20Mar Bel tr.t 5f ft 1:00.3 B 5/37.
5 – Runninsonofagun – He has won two races out of the last three races at Aqueduct finishing 6th in his last race when tried a longer distance – He now cuts back a furlong which may help, switches to a high % winning jockey and drops in class today.
Alternate:
7 – Uncle Gary
3 – Talented Man
Race 8
6 – Shooger Ray Too – Won his last race at PARX Racing in January which was his third win at PARX Racing – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – You Must Chill – He has won two races in a row, has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on Mar-22.
1 – I Am Redeemed – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – The rail post is winning at 22% clip; he drops in class today and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-3-2).
2 – Olympic Romp – Won his last race at PARX Racing – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
Alternate:
5 – Midnight Act
7 – Prince of Rain
Race 9
6 – Brazen – He has finished in the money ten out of the last ten races, winning seven including the last two – He has the highest last race speed rating.
8 – Sevier – Finished 3rd in last race and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Jamminwithbrandon – He has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey – He likes the track and can handle the distance.
2 – Sneakiness – He finished 3rd in his last race and has done well at PARX Racing in the past.
Alternate:
1 – Town Jak
Race 10
5 – Wendell Fong – Ran 2nd in his last race at PARX Racing, has high % winning jockey Frankie Pennington in the irons and two bullet workouts in a row.
2 – Rock On Luke – He has plenty of early speed, tried a distance last race and ran out of gas halfway and now cuts back to a sprint where he can be more effective – Drops in class today and has a good 5F workout on Mar-19.
4 – Sir Alfred James – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race receiving the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – He has a bullet 3F workout 22Mar Parx 3f ft :35.3 B 1/4.
6 – Smooth B – Finished 3rd in last race – Has a high % winning trainer – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (12 3-3-2).
Alternate:
7 – Press My Bets
Race 11
6 – Koan – Does well at PARX Racing and the distance will not be a problem – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – Royal Coup – He has won four out of twelve races at PARX Racing and finishing 3rd in last race at PARX Racing.
11 – Wagon Boss – He has finished in the money four out of the five races, winning two and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
13 – It’s Game Time – He has high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey and has the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile 70 yards – 85 races, 57 won by speed, 21 w2w -PP: Strong Rail bias, inside 3, 8+ a little > 4-7
The opener is fairly balanced with horses that get win from the front, middle and back. Four of the seven prefer to be close to the front, two of which are frontrunners. Race 1 should favor forwardly placed horses.
7 – LEADER OF THE BAND – if times mean anything, then this should not be close – Aug 24 at today’s distance 2 seconds faster than anything else in here = 10 lengths
2 – AMATERASU – another where times should matter, aside from the 7, final time at the distance is at least 2 seconds faster than any of the rest
6 – ARGENTINA GIRL – broker her maiden in the last effort and first route, could improve in second route run
3 – CLOUD SKIPPING – more often than not, performed well after a layoff, OK works getting ready for the 1st since late November
Race 2 – 6 furlongs – 88 Races, 61 won by speed, 26 w2w -PP: Rail 2 wins in 88, all others fair
This one has the potential to heat up two that have only won from the front, one that can press or lead and another three that pressure the leaders. That’s seven of the nine that like to be forwardly placed. The remaining two are closers that would benefit if the early race is out of hand fast.
5 – R GOODTIME CHARLIE – has the top EP and top LP#s in the field, you can’t pass what you can’t catch – right?
4 – IRISH COLONEL – could be rated 1st, regressed a little in his last, nine-years-old and missed as the favorite last out, tr: Scott Lake rebounds at 21% with BTN FAVS but worried he may have peaked 2 back
2 – SEPTIMIUS SEVERUS – is one of the two closers and would benefit if a hot pace develops
3 – TWIXY CAT – TLRSP# ran more than 2 seconds faster in last race vs previous 6f effort
Race 3 – 1 Mile 70 yards – 85 races, 57 won by speed, 21 w2w -PP: Strong Rail bias, inside 3, 8+ a little > 4-7
A perfectly balanced race with three that should take to the front in one group and three that should come from off the pace. The race setup should tilt towards speed.
2 – VINE JET – every horse has holes here, this one has the least and won 2x the rest of these, concern is 50/50 record fresh and blah works
5 – NONEEDTOWORRY – track drop from last two at Aqueduct, the three before that were 2 wins and a third at 1m70y at PARX
4 – TURNPIKE BOB – has the top EP#s and could get away with reasonable fractions
1 – NIMITZ – tough call over the 3 – taking the high win rate rail and third start after a layoff
Race 4 – 1 Mile 70 yards – 85 races, 57 won by speed, 21 w2w -PP: Strong Rail bias, inside 3, 8+ a little > 4-7
The balance of this race could tilt either with six that can run on/near the front or stalk and close. The remaining five consist of three that need the lead and a pair of closers. It looks like a speed of the speed or late legs race. Tough race, can make a case for 6 maybe 7 of 11.
8 – ZIPPY – resume says will be better in 3rd off the sidelines, strong LP improvement in his last, solid work since
11 – MUCHO MACHO EDDIE – top jock Ruben Silvera stays here instead of #2, won 18/55 with tr J Ness
10 – AMERICAN FLEET – ran three solid races since ky Joel Cruz started riding, ATB improvement in last
5 – COMMISSIONER G – TLRSP# with ATB in race improvement, gets a weight break
Race 5 – 7 Furlongs – 53 Races, 35 won by speed, 13 w2w -PP 2-7>1 and 8+ 9/14/9
Four the seven have won from the lead, another three have been right on the pace for the win, and one stalked for its wins. In other words, it could be a clump of horses battling for the first half-mile before the wheat and chaff separate. Late legs will be necessary.
1 – PHILADELPHIA BELLE – ran the TLRSP# and headed to barn, runs well fresh 5/3-1-0 with two decent works
2 – PEYTON ELIZABETH – winner 3 of last 4, LP improvement in last, ITM 5/3-1-1 at distance, Parx 13/5-5-1
5 – STILL ALIVE – gets a small wight break and likes Parx, 11/5-1-0, zero wins in 13 elsewhere
6 – BILLIEANNE – 19f good/fast works since last race in early December, ITM 9/3-2-2 at Parx, 7/3-1-2 on fast track
Race 6 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 34 Races, 20 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: Strong Rail bias, 2/3>4+ which play even
If pace makes race, then this race should belong to the lone E type versus six closers and one that can press but doesn’t win on the lead.
4 – BAHAMIAN GIRL – may not be the best horse, but is the lone speed horse that wins on the lead, has a decent EP advantage and lookout if she catches the right fractions
7 – CARAMEL CREAM – small drop, small weight break and a decent work between starts, ITM 20/29 @ Parx
8 – BLUNT FORCE – tied for top LP# and record says she’ll up the early tempo in the second start after a layoff.
5 – SHE’SMYRISENSTAR – TLRSP# and ITM 6/0-3-3 at the distance, sharp ATB improvement in her last
Race 7 – 7 Furlongs – 53 Races, 35 won by speed, 13 w2w -PP 2-7>1 and 8+ 9/14/9
A balanced bunch here with a pair of frontrunners, another that can take or sit off the lead, three that chase and two that close. This race will be pace dependent. It could be fast with six of eight starters that can battle for the lead, or it could be moderate if the in between types are patient.
1 – KENNER – gets 1st Lasix and has early speed, 2/f/LP improved dramatically last, a couple of decent works since
4 – OUR SHOT – broke his maiden in his last at Aqueduct at MSW 80k w/ TLRSP#, track drop and 23f works since
5 – RUNNINSONOFAGUN – class drop and track drop from Aqueduct with good works after flailing in the G3 Gotham
7 – UNCLE GARY G – should be part on/near the lead all the way around the track, cutting back in distance could help
Race 8 – 1 Mile 70 yards – 85 races, 57 won by speed, 21 w2w -PP: Strong Rail bias, inside 3, 8+ a little > 4-7
Six of the eight entrants prefer to be off the pace than on it. One of the other two is win on the lead or bust type and the other can be pilot or copilot. The horses upfront should have the advantage.
1 – I AM REDEEMED – has two bullet works since his last start and can take or sit right off the lead, drops in class PARX 9/4-2-1, Distance 4/2-1-1
3 – YOU MUST CHILL – has three wins in three at the distance, PARX 6/4-0-1, also working well getting ready
2 – OLYMPIC ROMP – showed major improvement in his LP figures and should be at/near peak form in his third off the bench
7 – PRINCE OF RAIN – a little bit of a shot here, tough call over the 6, TLRSP# and drops in class, much better in the second half of the race in last outing, could be better in 2nd off the bench
6 – SHOOGER RAY TOO
Race 9 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 34 Races, 20 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: Strong Rail bias, 2/3>4+ which play even
8 – SEVIER – PARX 12/9-0-1, position is everything, if he has the lead at the 1st call, probably your winner, was better in the 2nd half of his last race
6 – BRAZEN – has eight HQ races in his last 10, winning seven, TLRSP# with improve 4/LP#s
2 – SNEAKINESS – should sit behind the leaders, but has finished behind top pick in 3/4 matchups
5 – FOREST FIRE – has the back class to compete, strong race in his last suggest he could be headed back to that form, weight break
Race 10 – 6 furlongs – 88 Races, 61 won by speed, 26 w2w -PP: Rail 2 wins in 88, all others fair
Most of the field wants to be close to the front with two front runners, two could takes the lead or sit right behind the leader(s) and two that pressure the lead. The other is a straight closer.
4 – SIR ALFRED JAMES – TLRSP# and drops in class with huge LP improvement in last, is a bounce candidate
6 – SMOOTH B – 2nd off a layoff and just ran ridiculous in race #s last out, resume says he should be better in round 2, but another bounce candidate
5 – WENDELL FONG – is the lone closer and could catch a fast race. His workouts say he’s ready with two bullet works since his last race.
2 – ROCK ON LUKE –
Race 11 – 1 Mile 70 yards – 85 races, 57 won by speed, 21 w2w -PP: Strong Rail bias, inside 3, 8+ a little > 4-7
The bulk of the field is backloaded with horses that come from off the pace. The scratches here reduced the number of early speed horses, giving frontrunner an edge.
13 – IT’S GAME TIME – 2nd after the layoff, TLRSP#, drops in class with major step up in the first half of his last race
6 – KOAN – last race was a little better than it looks with improved fractions, class relief could be enough
11 – WAGON BOSS – PARX 4/2-0-2, ran much faster fractions in his last, Distance 14/4-5-1
14 – MR THRIFTY – 3rd off the bench and PPs say it should be better than his last, which was good enough to compete here
