Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s (UPDATED PRIME RIBS due to scratches below)
BONUS: Jared Bush shares his picks for today as well
Parx Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Far Mo Power – Won his last two races in a row at PARX – The trainer wins 24% of the time when bringing back the winner of their last race to race again.
2 – Three Two Zone – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race – Drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
3 – Bode O –. Won his last race at PARX, likes the track and distance.
5 – Baafeed –. Won his last race at PARX, trainer/Jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
Alternate:
6 – Fore Harp
Race 2
10 – Full Send – Came in from Gulfstream Park and in his first race at PARX got a terrible break after being bumped. Should improve at the shorter distance. Trained by high % winning trainer Jamie Ness.
9 – Inventionist – Finished 3rd in last race – His early speed running style helps chances – Can improve at the shorter distance.
5 – Dancing Dragon – Ran 2nd in last race, has a high % winning trainer/Jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (7 2-1-0).
Alternate:
3 – Fifty Cents
1 – Mr Fantasy
Race 3
12 – Distractandattack – Finished in the money in his last five races, winning one of the races at PARX – The shorter distance may help as he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
1 – Bucks Are Moving – Finished 2nd in his last three races, is it time to win?
9 – Jovial – Won his last race at PARX and got the highest last race speed rating – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-2-2).
3 – Buffalo Shuffle – Finished a nice 2nd in last race at PARX Racing – Distance should not be a problem.
Alternate:
4 – Indoctrinate
6 – E T’s Candy Man
Race 4
6 – Jump Shot – Won his last race at PARX – Has a decent workout on 19Feb Prx 4f ft :49 B 9/26.
2 – Glacier Express – Closed from deep to win his last race at PARX. The trainer wins 42% of the time when she drops a horse off a win Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (14 5-2-3).
5 – Ty Ran a Homer – Ran 2nd in his last race at PARX, and the distance will not be a problem.
10 – My Train – Ran 3rd twice in a row at PARX – Has a high % winning trainer and he has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
13 – Forest Fire
7 – Septimius Severus
Race 5
8 – Alpha’s Candy Man – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race and drops in class today – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-1).
4 – Willie Mays Hays – Lost rider in the last race after stumbling – Two races back he ran 2nd closing at 5-furlongs and stretches out to 7-furlongs in today’s contest.
6 – Beach Bandit – Shorter distance may help, and he has a decent workout.
Alternate:
11- He Runs the Line
3- World Regard
Race 6
5 – Maybe After Later – Ran 2nd in last race – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer and Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-3-2) – He has three bullet workouts in a row.
3 – Pylon – Won his last race at PARX – Likes the track.
4 – Helosthismarbles – Won his last race at PARX at today’s distance – He has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Tip for Tap – Won his last race at PARX and received the highest last race speed rating – Has a bullet 3F workout on 01Mar Parx 3f ft :36.1 B 1/5.
Alternate:
6 – Jw’s Third Mischie
Race 7
3 – Morning Matcha – Finished in the money in all eight of her career races, winning two – She has the highest last race speed rating, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a bullet 4F workout on 01Mar Parx 4f ft :47.3 B 1/21.
4 – Mia Tosca – Won her last race at PARX Racing easily – She has good workouts.
6 – Beach Daze – Won her last race two races in a row at PARX – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-2-2).
Race 8
10 – Starship Laoban – has won two out of the last four races – She has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-3-2).
11 – Argentina Girl – Finished in the money three out of four races at PARX, winning the last race – Her early speed running style helps chances.
7 – Perfect Direction – Won her debut race at PARX, shortens up in this race which can only help.
Race 9
3 – Dance Code – Tried Aqueduct and finished 4th and now returns to PARX Racing where he has won three out of four races – The shorter distance should help – Lasix added.
4 – Uncaptured Spirit – Comes in from Laurel Park after running 3rd in his last race – He sports two bullet works in a row.
5 – Scaramouche – Won his last race at PARX earning the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 31% of the time when using Lasix a second time – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – He has a good 4F workout (Feb-24).
8 – Talented Man – Won his last race at PARX, trainer/Jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
Race 10
5 – Twisted Ride – Won his last race at PARX – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (14 5-2-3).
3 – Smarten Up – Finished 3rd in his last race after being pinched at the start – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Courvoisier – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 20% of the time in Dirt starts – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – Good 4F workout (Mar-01)
Race 11
5 – This Ill Defend – Won her last race at PARX and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Koan – Likes the track and today’s distance – She drops in class today.
2 – It’s Game Time – She has won two out of the last four races – Should improve while returning to dirt and the trainer wins 35% of the time when his horse goes from AW to a dirt surface.
10 – Spring Emperor – Won her last race at PARX and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
4 – Fast Bob
1 – Icy Dude
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 7 Furlongs – 35 Races, 21 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ penalty, 4-7>2/3
This race has every running style entered despite being only 6 deep, which should favor early speed.
1 – FAR MO POWER – won at this distance in his last, nice LP improvement, best LP#s but shouldn’t be too far off the pacesetters
2 – THREE TWO ZONE – is likely to be a co-pilot out of the gates, off since Nov 27th, three decent works since Feb 10th
5 – BAAFEED – ran considerably faster fractions in his last, Scott Lake mentioned this horse last night
6 – FORE HARP – probably ranked too high, but large EP edge, 3 strong works including 2 bullets since Feb 9th, could be really difficult to beat if he gets out to an easy lead
Race 2 – 5 ½ Furlongs – 25 Races, 18 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ bonus, 2-7 even
This race is dominated by horses that want the lead or chase the lead, a closer and a trio that appear to have no chance. Early speed with best LP could be the way.
1 – MR FANTASY – breaks well, top EP#s, improved 4/LP# in last, much faster fractions, can he hold on?
5 – DANCING DRAGON – another w/ noticeable 4/LP improvement in last, Top EP/LP combo by a little
10 – FULL SEND – has the best LP#s, gets weight break, just needs to run back 2 starts, w2w win at GP
2 – FEARLESS FLY
Race 3 – 7 Furlongs – 35 Races, 21 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ penalty, 4-7>2/3
As many as half of this field’s way to the winners’ circle is on the lead. That could lead to a fast pace, leaving the door open to a stalker/closer and the speed of the speed.
9 – JOVIAL –TOP Pedigree, only LRSP>PAR, Top EP/LP combo
3 – BUFFALO SHUFFLE – has the top EP#s by a decent margin, Fastest 1/4 Fractions
12 – DISTRACTANDATTACK – ITM Parx 5/1-3-1, three good works since Feb 9,
1 – BUCKS ARE MOVING – Denzel at Parx 17/1-6-5, Distance 5/0-2-2,
Race 4 – 7 Furlongs – 35 Races, 21 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ penalty, 4-7>2/3
There is a lack of early speed in this race with nine of 13 that prefer to be mid-pack and back. Reasonable fractions and this could go to the pilot/co-pilot.
10 – MY TRAIN – ran a superhot pace last out, there isn’t a need to do that here, cutting back should help
6 – JUMP SHOT – won his last, making it 4 wins in 9 races at the distance, has the top EP/LP combo
13 – FOREST FIRE – gets a weight break and has some early speed, he also caught an off the charts fast race in his last
2 – GLACIER EXPRESS – has the best, LP #s, improved late in his last and is dropping off a win, 3/7 for tr: Kathleen Demasi
Race 5 – 7 Furlongs – 35 Races, 21 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ penalty, 4-7>2/3
This is an anything can happen race because most of these horses have been bad. A few have tried to stay close to the front and most likely with winner will come from that lot.
8 – ALPHA’S CANDY MAN and #7 have far ana away the strongest EP#s, Fastest 1/4 Fraction
11 – HE RUNS THE LINE – TLRSP#, showed significant 2/4f improvement in his last, top LP#s by a long shot and should be in 1st group behind pacesetters
3 – WORLD REGARD – kind of have to put him in as he’s only raced once and we don’t know his upside, could surprise, a couple decent works since debut
4 – WILLIE MAYS HAYS – toss the last after losing rider, should be one of a bunch trying late
Race 6 – 7 Furlongs – 35 Races, 21 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ penalty, 4-7>2/3
There is plenty of giddy up and go in this race with 5 of 8 wanting the lead and another that will likely chase.
1 – TIP FOR TAP – should not be too far off the lead and has the top LP#s, LRSP>PAR, 3SP# increases
5 – MAYBE AFTER LATER – has been off since Jan 19th, a bullet work on Feb 21, PARX 9/3-4-1, probably gets bet down hard
4 – HELOSTHISMARBLES – would rank higher, but coming off the maiden win, good EP and LP#s
6 – JW’S THIRD MISCHIE
Race 7 – 1 Mile 70 yards – 60 Races, 42 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: mostly even, slight inside 3 and 8+ Bonus
Half the field wants to be on the lead, but it might not be too fast. A pair could sit of the lead and have a good chance to run on by.
3 – MORNING MATCHA – comes from AQ and is 2 for 2 at Parx, top LP#s by a lot
6 – BEACH DAZE – 3SP# Increases, 2 wins in a row, can sit off the pace or close from the back
4 – MIA TOSCA
Race 8 – 6 Furlongs – 62 Races, 41 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: rail 1 of 62, all else play fair
Once again, half the field’s way to the winners’ circle is on the lead. Speed of the speed and stalkers right off the pace with late legs could be the way home.
10 – STARSHIP LAOBAN – 3SP# increases, won last by 11 with strong LP improvement, QTA ran Feb 16
7 – PERFECT DIRECTION – should be on the pace and has the top EP/LP combo based in Debut win
2 – DISCO EBO – is 2 for 2 at the distance, won maiden at Parx, 1st Lasix with some back speed
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs – 62 Races, 41 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: rail 1 of 62, all else play fair
A lot of inexperienced horses here and all but 2 want the lead, if they aren’t careful, the pace could be too hot.
5 – SCARAMOUCHE – TLRSP#, improved 2/4/LP#s, Top EP and LP combo, Top Pedigree
3 – DANCE CODE – won at this level at Parx two back, PARX 4/3-0-0
8 – TALENTED MAN – is also coming off he maiden win, improved final 6f time by more than 3 seconds, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
9 – PRACTICAL COACH – 1st time Lasix, 3rd off a layoff, improved across the board in his last
Race 10 – 1 1/16 Miles – 13 Races, 7 won by stklrs/clsrs, 4 w2w – PP: N/A with just 4 horses
With only four horses, in all likelihood, the pilot or co-pilot has the best chance to win.
4 – COURVOISIER – likely to be pacesetter, Top Pedigree, DROPS from 250-100
3 – SMARTEN UP – finished behind #4 by 1 ¼ lengths two back
5 – TWISTED RIDE – won maiden in last
Race 11 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 60 Races, 42 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: mostly even, slight inside 3 and 8+ Bonus
There is a good mix of horses here, some speed, some chasers, some stalkers and some closers. That should mean the best horse wins.
3 – KOAN – last race is better than it looks, much better fractions than previous start,
5 – THIS ILL DEFEND – nice 2/4f improvement in last, 2 good works since last on Feb 6, Tie top LP#s by a lot
10 – SPRING EMPEROR – across the board better numbers in his last,
4 – FAST BOB – 3rd off a layoff, major improvement late in last
UPDATED PRIME RIB PICK 4s
