Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Thistledown Full Card Picks
Terry’s Horseshoe Indianapolis Best Bet
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Belterra Park
Thistledown Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Vinny Boy – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race only losing by a neck, switches to a high % winning trainer, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Yo Berbs – A third out of six starts.
Race 2
6 – Corresponder – She ran a nice 2nd in her last race earning the highest last race speed rating, switches to a high % winning trainer and the trainer wins 33% of the time when going up 2+ classes.
3 – Surprised Gem – She ran a 6th in her last race but it was a muddy track, and she may not have liked it – She drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Soldat Temptation – She drops in class today and the trainer who wins 25% of the time when going from Sprint to Route.
Race 3
2 – It’s a Mans World – He showed early speed in his last race but faded in the last ½ furlong in the mud and now he moves up to a mile which is a distance he has done well in in the past – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie), returning to a route may help and he has a good 3F workout on (May-02).
4 – Schmultzy – He has been off since last August so he needed a race, drops in class today and the trainer wins 25% of the time when going Sprint to a Route – May improve while returning to a route.
7 – Grad Bash – He likes the distance finishing in the money 40% of the time winning 15% of the races.
1 – Riding in the Wind – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
Race 4
4 – Awesome Anywhere – He comes in from Tampa Bay after winning his last race to try Thistledown for the first time, switches to a high % winning jockey and has the highest last race speed rating – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (4 3-0-0).
2 – Forest Chatter – He has won two races in a row and is going for a hat trick – The trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
5 – Signs of Greatness – He has not raced since October –Trainer in last 14 days has this record (9 3-2-1).
3 – Bubba – He has not raced since September – He has a good on 03May Tdn 4f ft :49 B 3/20.
Race 5
1 – Kadesh– He finished in the money in his last four races out of five, winning the one – He has jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 3-2-0).
5 – Strike a Beat – He comes in from Tampa Bay after winning his last race to try Thistledown for the first time and switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-2-0).
6 – Often Enough – He won two races in a row going for a third race and has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Venetian Dream
Race 6
1 – Sweet Outlook – She finished in the money in her two career races, winning the last one.
3 – Busybeing Fabulous – She comes in from Mahoning Valley, ran 2nd vs similar in her first race at Thistledown and she has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Iamgoingtoshine – She finished in the money in four out of the last five races, finishing 5th the last one after being bumped during the race – Her jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 3-2-0) and good 3F workout on 05May Tdn 3f ft :37 Bg2/17.
5 – Payton Pretty – She won two races in a row then she threw in a clunker after trying a tougher group of horses and she has a trainer who wins 33% of the time when starting a horse for the second time under their care.
Alternate:
2 – Beautiful Victoria
Race 7
5 – Corner Office – He ran 2nd in his in his first race back after being off since last August and received the highest last race speed rating (tie). – The trainer wins 20% of the time when in allowance races and he has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 2-2-2).
3 – Quiet Amigo – He won his last race at Mahoning Valley and has a trainer who wins 19% of the time when bringing the winner of their last race backed to race again.
1 – Denny M – He finished in the money in seven out of the last nine races and then took off since October – He likes Thistledown finishing in the money in almost 70% of the races, winning 15% of the races.
7 – Susie’s Kid – He like Thistledown finishing in the money 69% of the time, winning 15%.
Alternate:
6 – Funny Bachelor
Race 8
6 – Next Generation – She won her debut race and then finished 2nd in her last race losing only by a nose, has a high % winning jockey and a trainer who wins 29% of the time when bringing a horse back after being off 46-90 days.
5 – Hosanna – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
3 – Prophetess Too – She should improve at the shorter distance and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 2-2-2).
1 – Wortherweightngold – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (10 4-2-0).
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 furlongs, 33 races, 21 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: 1 winner from the rail, fair 2-7, 0 wins 8+
4 – VINNY BOY – missed by a neck in his last, extra ½ furlongs makes the difference, could be better in the 2nd start after a layoff
1 – YO BERBS – finished well behind VINNY BOY in December match up
Race 2 – 1 mile, 10 races, 8 won by speed, 2 w2w -PP: edge 4-7, no winners 8+
6 – CORRESPONDER – claimed in last and is moving up 2 classes, ran 1 second faster in her last
2 – SOLDAT TEMPTATION – tried to be upfront in 1st start for tr Bart Barnes, maybe jumps to the lead today
3 – SURPRISED GEM – dropping from MDW 24k too, last race was a mess in the mud, back class could be better
Race 3 – 1 mile, 10 races, 8 won by speed, 2 w2w -PP: edge 4-7, no winners 8+
2 – IT’S A MANS WORLD – TLRSP# and a strong work on May 2nd, off the bench record is sketchy
7 – GRAD BASH – was much better late in his last, ran well next out the next time out after bumping LP#s
5 – INSPIRED TO ROCK – has the look of a horse that’s improving, much better fractions in last race at Mahoning Valley, numbers seem to bump higher at TDN
1 – RIDING IN THE WIND – has the top numbers at the distance, last start was ugly, but hey, maybe he’s better 2nd off break
Race 4 – 5 furlongs, 50 races, 37 won by speed, 20 w2w -PP: 2 winners from rail, 4-7 a little better 2/3, 8+ penalty
4 – AWESOME ANYWHERE – track drop from TB, TLRSP#, 4/0-2-1 at the distance, fast track 19/8-5-4
2 – FOREST CHATTER – won two in a row, both by at least 5 ¾ lengths, TDN 18/6-1-5
5 – SIGNS OF GREATNESS – has a pair of wins at the distance with better numbers than BUBBA
3 – BUBBA – will need to run back to his maiden win
Race 5 – 1 mile, 10 races, 8 won by speed, 2 w2w -PP: edge 4-7, no winners 8+
6 – OFTEN ENOUGH – winner of two in a row, usually runs well in bunches, HQ races in 7/10
1 – KADESH – could be the pacesetter in a field without a lot of EP
5 – STRIKE A BEAT – track dropper from Oaklawn, is a closer and gets a weight break
3 – VENETIAN DREAM – 2nd start off the claim, winner 2/7 for tr Ricardo Bailey
Race 6 – 5 ½ furlongs, 17 races, 16 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: major 4+ bias
2 – BEAUTIFUL VICTORIA – beat the 1 in her last, SWEET OUTLOOK came back to win next, an OK work between races
3 – BUSYBEING FABULOUS – should be better in 3rd off the start, better pace #s across the board, TLRSP#
1 – SWEET OUTLOOK – got the maiden W in her last in 2nd race with better fractions, much improved in first ½ mile
5 – PAYTON PRETTY – tr Gary Johnson winner 12/36 with horses making their 2nd start for him
4 – IAMGOINGTOSHINE – gets a jockey change, last ran in August, 14f of works since April 7th including a fast one on May 5
Race 7 – 5 ½ furlongs, 17 races, 16 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: major 4+ bias
5 – CORNER OFFICE – is two for two at the distance, Tie TLRSP# with better pace #s ATB, likely better in second race off the break
3 – QUIET AMIGO – is one for one at TDN, winning his last with ease at this level. Has EP and cuts back ½ furlong – should help
7 – SUSIE’S KID – has been of since October, make the same break last year, came out of the barn and own by 5 ½ lengths at TDN, ITM 13/2,4,3 and 5/0-2-2 at distance – has our friend TD Houghton riding winning at 22%
1 – DENNY M – held the lead early in his last and could be better in second start off the bench
Race 8 – 5 ½ furlongs, 17 races, 16 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: major 4+ bias
6 – NEXT GENERATION – BB – is a nose from being undefeated in two, missed as the favorite in her last, tr William Cowans rebounds at a ridiculous 40% next time out
3 – PROPHETESS – last race was better than the finish with better pace#s than previous race, ITM 3/1-1-1
5 – HOSANNA – TLRSP#, 3SP# increases and really approved in his last, was ridden by KD winner Sonny Leon last out
1 – WORTHERWEIGHTNGOLD – wanted to rank higher, but finished behind multiple horse in this field when she’s faced them
