Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Churchill Downs Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Belterra Park
Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3- Freudian – She has finished in the money in the last four races, winning one and running 2nd in her last race so she is knocking at the door and today someone answers – She has the highest last race speed rating, and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Earley Rose – She has finished 2nd in her last race and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-3-0).
6 – Dunvegan Doll –The trainer wins 18% of the time when going from a maiden to a maiden claiming race and her best dirt speed is close to the avg winning speed.
1 – Candywrapper Crazy – She comes in from the Oakland to try Churchill Downs and the trainer wins 18% of the time when going from Sprint-Sprint-Route race. – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
5 – Start Class
Race 2
1 – Lone Rock – He has won seven races out of the last nine races receiving the highest last race speed rating, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer wins 27% of the time when bringing the winner of their last race back to run again.
4 – Tenfold – He finished 3rd in his last two races, gets a jockey change to Joel Rosario and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2 – Current – He has won two races out of the last four races at Hawthorne and Santa Anita and the trainer wins 24% of the races with a shipper.
5 – Hozier – He has the high % winning jockey Flavien Prat and has a good workout on 09Apr OP 5f ft 1:01.1 B 6/21.
Alternate:
3 – Celerity
Race 3
2 – Super Wonder Girl– She tends to have slow starts if she can get a better start, she can do better – She has the highest last race speed rating, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Mohaylady – She comes in from Oaklawn to try Churchill Downs again, drops in class for the contest and has a decent workout.
4 – Supertaleofhoudini – She tried turf in the last race and did not fare well and now comes back to the dirt where she has been competitive and drops in class today.
7 – Bertrada – She comes in from Turfway Park to try Churchill Downs where he has finished 3rd in two out of four races – He should improve while returning to the dirt and the trainer wins 22% of the time when bringing a horse back after a 46-90-day break.
Alternate:
1 – Lucky Lauren
6 – Risata
Race 4
1 – Regal Retort – She comes in from Keenland to try Churchill Downs, where she has finished in the money in two out of three races, winning one of the contests – She drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
2 – Remain Anonymous – She has finished in the money in nine out of her last ten races, winning two of the contests and running 2nd vs similar in last race – She has a trainer who wins 17% of the races in the 2nd race off a layoff and a bullet 4F workout on 27Apr Kee 4f ft :47 B 1/33.
6 – Larimar – She has done well at this track in the past and the distance will not be a problem – The trainer wins 20% of the races in claiming races and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
3 – Xtrema – She hasn’t raced since last September, but she drops in class, has a bullet workout and then a maintenance one – During her career she has finished in the money in 53% of her races, winning 27% of the races.
Alternate:
5 – Recoded
4 – Dance Rhythms
Race 5
9 – Millefeuille – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-1-0).
12 – High Fashion – She has arrived from Turfway Park to try Churchill Downs – She has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record and she has a good 4F workout on 28Apr Kee 4f ft :48© B 6/17
11 – Laynlomakndough – The trainer who wins 18% of the races in the 2nd race off after a layoff.
5 – If You Please– Her breeding suggests she will like the grass and the trainer wins 27% of the time when racing a horse, the 1st time on grass.
Race 6
3 – Baby Quinn – He ran 2nd missing by a head in his only start after having trouble in the stretch – The trainer wins 38% of the time when using 1st time lasix – He was well bet in debut, has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (13 4-2-1) and has a good 4F workout on 23Apr Kee 4f ft :47.2 Bg4/94.
6 – Joyful Candy – He ran 2nd in his last race at the Fairgrounds and has a good workout on 08Apr Cdt 4f ft :47.2 B 2/26.
4 – Lunar Rocket – He finished 3rd at Keenland only losing by a neck, earning the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Teo – Jockey Joel Rosario is in the irons and Teo drops in class today.
Alternate:
8 – Naval Officer
5 – Officer Nick
Race 7
9 – Gate Runner – He is bred very well and was a $560K purchase trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz, heavily bet in his debut race and ran a disappointing race. But he had an excuse hitting the gate at the start and getting a terrible start. I am willing to see another race as I think he will perform better this time.
1A – Jeeper – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a bullet 4F workout on 26Apr Kee 5f ft 1:00.2 B 1/13.
7 – Deputy Connect – He finished 3rd in his last race after being blocked in the stretch as the favorite but the trainer wins 31% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (13 4-2-1).
5 – Pioneering Spirit – He finished 2nd vs similar in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie), and he has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (12 4-2-1).
Alternate:
6 – Curbstone
8 – One More Baby
Race 8
4 – On Your Mark – He has finished in the money in eight out of nine of his last races, winning two of the races – He has a good 4F workout on 27Apr CD 4f ft :47.1 B 3/30.
9 – Thanks Mr. Eidson – He comes in from Southern California and has a trainer who wins 22% of the races in the 1st start with the trainer, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and a good 5F workout on 28Apr CD 4f ft :49.1 B 27/52.
11 – Night Time He ran 2nd (on Dirt) in his last race in August but has been steadily working out and has a 5F workout on Apr-23 – He has the highest last race speed rating and the shorter distance will be a plus.
12– Verb He finished in the money in 71% of the time, winning 10% of the races and may improve in 2nd start since layoff.
Race 9
8 – Sariah Sariah – She has finished in the money in five out of five of her last races, winning two of the races – She can handle the distance and can compete at Churchill Downs.
4 – Strollin the Bayou – She will be probably break and run mid-pack and will close in the stretch – She performs well at today’s distance.
3 – Enchanted Nile – She has the highest last race speed rating, her early speed running style helps her chances and she has a bullet 5F workout on 22Apr Mer 5f ft 1:03 B 1/17.
7 – Aura – She is trained by Steven Asmussen and Tyler Gaffalione is in the irons and she has a decent workout on 06Apr Hou 4f ft :51.2 B 8/18.
Alternate:
6 – Funnybet
2 – Malibu Marlee
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 1/16 miles, 77 races, 52 won by speed, 25 w2w -PP: 4-7>1-3>8+
3 – FREUDIAN – TLRSP#, Churchill 2/0-2-0, Distance 2/0-1-1, 18f good works since last race
6 – DUNVEGAN DOLL – blew a tire in her last, but dropping from MSW to MCL, a little better LP#s in last
4 – EARLEY ROSE – better pace in the first half of her last start, BTN FAV, tr Eddie Kenneally bounces back at 26%
1 – CANDYWRAPPER CRAZY -also TC drop, MSW 90, better 2/4f numbers in her last, one of two 4-Yods (#7)
Race 2 – 1 ½ miles, no races – $160,000 ISAAC MURPHY OVERNIGHT STAKES
1 – LONE ROCK – CD 6/3-2-0, Distance 5/4-1-0, TLRSP# and should be better in second start off the bench
4 – TENFOLD – showed a lot of improvement in the first half of his last start, could be in top form in his third start off the bench.
2 – CURRENT – could trail the top pick all the way around the track
5 – HOZIER – looks better than #3
Race 3 – 6 ½ furlongs, 35 races, 26 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: 4-7>1-3, 8+ a little penalty
7 – BERTRADA – strong fast record 8/1-3-2, has 24f works since March 16th
2 – SUPER WONDER GIRL – TLRSP# with much stronger late kick in her last relative to her previous race, bullet CD work on April 22nd – Mike Smith
4 – SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI – dropping in class and flipping from turf to dirt, also get jy switch to Reylu Gutierrez
5 – MOHAYLADY – has the most back class in the field and is probably the most consistent
Race 4 – 7 furlongs, 45 races, 27 won by speed, 8 w2w -PP mostly fair with slight outside bias
1 – REGAL RETORT – TLRSP# and down in class, usually better in 2nd start off the bench. All or nothing at the distance 8/4-0-0
5 – RECODED – missed by ½ length in her last with 4th consecutive SP# increase, maybe closes the deal in third off the sidelines
2 – REMAIN ANONYMOUS, ITM 9/10races, better fractions in last, bullet workout after, maybe better in 2nd after a layoff
6 – LARIMAR – runs fairly well fresh, 18f of good works since last race on Feb 16th
Race 5 – 1 mile turf, no races
9 – MILLEFEUILLE – top choice on an off track, better EP# In slop last out, record suggest big improvement in round two off the break
12 – HIGH FASHION – off track 3/1-2, including 2nd by a length at CD, usually not a winner but closes into exotics
6 – BLAZING STAR – is used to running on an off turf course, has a bullet and work and go with 1st time Lasix
11 – LAYNLOMAKNDOUGH – should improve in her second off the bench, lone dirt trip was well beaten 2nd but DQd into 1st
Race 6 – 6 furlongs, 85 races, 58 won by speed, 22 w2w -PP: mostly fair w/ 4-7 edge
3 – BABY QUINN – TC drop, missed debut last May at CD by a head, 1st Lasix, some solid works getting ready, tr Brad Cox hits at 38% 1st Lasix
2 – TEO – another TC drop, 21% winner for tr Steve Asmussen
4 – LUNAR ROCKET – Denzel horse, 6/0-1-4, TLRSP# and could be better in second tray after some rest
8 – NAVAL OFFICER – looks like the best of the 1st time starters,
Race 7 – 1 ¼ miles, 6 races, 50/50, 1 w2w -PP: inside 3 bias, 4-7 penalty, 8+ fair
1A – JEEPER – TLRSP# with bullet work on April 29, limited resume hints at improvement in second start off the bench
5 – PIONEERING SPIRIT – numbers rival top pick, little better fractions in last and has some on/off late punch
9 – GATE RUNNER – was the betting favorite in debut, hit the gate and went wide, 560k horse and been working well
7 – DEPUTY CONNECT – missed as the favorite in last two, best LP#s and should not be too far off the lead
Race 8 – 5 ½ furlongs turf, 0 races
12 – VERB – should be forwardly places and finished 2nd by ½ length in lone trip on mud
11 – NIGHT TIME – has the top SP# on an off track, hasn’t run since last August, some solid workouts getting ready
4 – ON YOUR MARK – another that’s been working well and has a good record on wet 3/1-1-0
9 – THANKS MR. EIDSON – comes in from California, 1st time for tr Brian Lynch, 23% winner, turf record says he might like a wet surface
Race 9 – 1 1/16 miles, 77 races, 52 won by speed, 25 w2w -PP: 4-7>1-3>8+
4 – STROLLIN THE BAYOU – usually runs well off the bench, 6/1-1-1 on a wet track, should be flying late
8 – SARIAH SARIAH – should be close to the front all the way around the track, little better fractions last out, wet 6/2-1-1
3 – ENCHANTED NILE – TLRSP#, not biggest fan of track upgrades, wet record isn’t so good, but does have some of the best EP#s
7 – AURA – should be as good, maybe better in her 3rd start after a layoff, better 2/4f# in last, off 3/1-0-0
