$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for the Turf Paradise full card on a $100 Budget
Support This Show – Click Here to Get Your HRT Gear Now
Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Turf Paradise Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Discernment – She won two races in a row and then ran 4th after being bumped at the start in her last race.
4 – V Bucks – She ran 2nd in her last race and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-2-1).
5 – Seven Sisters – She ran 2nd in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
6 – Even Pandura – She finished 3rd in her last race, switches to a high % jockey and has a trainer who wins 25% of the race when dropping a horse off a claim.
Alternate:
1 – Midnight Garden
2 – Miss Important
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 1st race 3, 4, 5 – 2nd race # 2, 6 – 3rd race # 7, 8- 4th race #3, 5, 6, 7, 8
Race 2
6 – Family Biz – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Swamp Souffle – He won two races in a row and drops off a win.
3 – T Bones Trick – He won his last race and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Surprsinglyperfect – He drops in class today.
Alternate:
4 – Bigfoot City
Bet: $.50 trifecta # 2, 6 / 2, 3, 6 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
Race 3
7 – Ready to Forgive – He finished 8th in his last race after having trouble.
8 – Restoring Dreams – He came in from Southern California and ran 6th but the trainer wins 37% of the races in the 2nd start with the trainer.
3 – Limited Offer – He switches to a high % winning jockey and has the Highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
1 – Master Ruler – His early speed running style helps his chances and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
5 – Ascot Storm
Race 4
5 – Silly Notion – She has finished in the money in 77% of her starts at Turf Paradise, winning 33% of the races and likes the distance.
3 – M and M Girl – She finished 3rd in her last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Tick Tock – She finished 3rd in her last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
6 – Mo Connelly – She finished 3rd in last race.
Alternate:
7 – Atlantic Princess
Bet: None
Race 5
6 – Solander – He came in from Hastings and finished 3rd vs similar in his first race at Turf Paradise and should improve with the additional distance.
5 – Guest Check – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race after some trouble.
4 – Tour the World – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Thirsty Kiss – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the rail post is winning at 34% clip.
Alternate:
3 – Guardsman Pass
8 – Abrierwin
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 5th race 4, 5, 6 – 6th race # 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 – 7th race # 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 – 8th race #6
Race 6
9 – Sugar Shane – He has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
4 – Company’s Dream – He is a first-time starter; his Dam has 4 winners from 6 starters and the breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
10 – Renegade Warrior – He arrived a from GGF and ran 6th alter coming wide into the stretch and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
7- Anotherforbrooks – He is a first-time starter and has a nice workout on Dec 18th.
Alternate:
8 – Thirsty Cowboy
5 – Harbor Thunder
Bet: None
Race 7
1 – Star Entry – He won his last race at Turf Paradise and switches to a high % jockey.
6 – After the Candy – He has an early foot and the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
7 – Upper Room – He likes the track & has a sharp 3F workout (Dec-23).
Longshot:
3 – Golden Cowboy – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Bet: None
Alternate:
5 – Rocky Jack
Race 8
6 – Man Friday – He comes in from Southern California, switches to a high % winning jockey, drops in class today and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters. – ( Has not raced for more than a year)
1 – Shinny – He ran 2nd in his last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Rail Hugger – He won his last race at Turf Paradise and only need repeat that race.
Longshot:
5 – Brother Reid – He also comes in from Southern California after being off more than a year.
Alternate:
3 – Major Attraction
8 – Northcut
Bet: $18.00 win # 6
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, Fair 1-7, Sizable Bonus 8+ – 46% w2w
4 – V BUCKS – 3rd off a layoff for tr Robertino Diodoro, nice work between races
3 – DISCERNMENT – fast dirt 18/6-6-1, TLRSP# and should be on the pace, also 3rd off the break, was best of last 3 race cycle
1 – MIDNIGHT GARDEN – 1st off the claim for tr James Brown – 24% vs 19% overall, fractions were the same at 1m v 6 1/2f
5 – SEVEN SISTERS – just needs to run back 3 races and should be forwardly placed
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick Four: 3,4/1,2,3/1,5,8/1,8
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Just 1 Race was won off the pace from 4-7
3 – T BONES TRICK – TP 4/3-1-0, won last and has 3 works since including a bullet and go
1 – SURPRSINGLYPERFECT – been running in NGST – TP 12/5-1-2, bullet and go at TP says he is ready
2 – SWAMP SOUFFLE – won 2 in a row and drops in class, distance might be an issue
4 – BIGFOOT CITY – distance won’t be a problem and could be out front by himself
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,3/1,2,3/1,2,3,4,6
Race 3: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed with an Inside 3 Bias, 4+ a Little Under Par – 67% w2w
1 – MASTER RULER – 2nd after a layoff – distance 9/4-2-0
5 – ASCOT STORM – has the most late pace and the best combo of EP/LP
8 – RESTORING DREAMS – could be pacesetter, almost a must bet if post time odds are 3-1 or higher
2 – BAPTISM – could be on the front with and benefits from 6 scratching
Suggested Wager: $1 Pick 3: ALL/1/2
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, Fair 1-7, Sizable Bonus 8+ – 46% w2w
1 – BENGAL TIGER – too much of an EP edge +12 2f and +9 4f, not to put on top vs mid and back horses
8 – TICK TOCK – TLRSP# and has a ton of LP, will be rolling late
5 – SILLY NOTION – last race was better than it looks with better fractions early at 1m v 7f
6 – MO CONNELLY – tough call over the 7, but we’ll take the lone PC and Harry Hernandez
Suggested Wager: $1 Pick 3: 1/2/ALL
Race 5: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Early Speed with Big Rail and 2/3 Bonus – No winners 8+
2 – OUR VALLEY – another with too much of an EP lead not to put on top
5 – GUEST CHECK – beat some of these last out and has some history of being close to the pace
6 – SOLANDER – could improve in second start after a layoff, better early pace #s in last
1 – THIRSTY KISS – tough call over the 4, but you can’t ignore 34% winning rail
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 2/ALL
Race 6: 5 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed with Outside in Bias – 43% w2w
9 – SUGAR SHANE – track dropper from GG, showed EP and gets 1st Lasix, but jy Jose Leon 30/0-3-6 and tr Alex Torres-Casas 0-17 at TP
7 – ANOTHERFORBROOKS – 1st time starter, like some of his works, especially last two and Nov 18th
4 – COMPANY’S DREAM – another 1st timer – Dec 16th work of 59.2 for 5f could be fast enough today
11 – CATCHME AT THELAKE – first time flyer with decent works and not a lot to beat in here
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: ALL/7,8
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, Fair 1-7, Sizable Bonus 8+ – 46% w2w
7 – UPPER ROOM – significant drop in class with a fast work between races
8 – WARFRONT FIGHTER – major upgrade in times and SP# in last, lone PC with plenty of speed to chase
6 – AFTER THE CANDY – better fractions at 5 1/2f v 4 ½, + EP edge at 4f
1 – STAR ENTRY – has a + EP/LP combo and could get a good trip as EP with mostly all over speed
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 6,7,8/7,8/1,3,6,7,8
Race 8: 7 ½ Furlong Turf – Bias: Stalkers, No Rail Wins, 2+ Fair
3 – MAJOR ATTRACTION – won at this distance two back, looking for more in round three off the sidelines
6 – MAN FRIDAY – been off for more than a year, drops from 100K NGST – since he is not in for a claim – not too concerned – looking for the win
1 – SHINNY – beast at the distance 9/6-2-0 – rail is 0 for 15 at the distance/surface
4 – BOBBY BRINKLEY – left arrow horse with the best combo of EP/LP
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,6/1,3,6/1,3,4,6,9
Turf Paradise Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet
