Kentucky Downs Horse Racing Picks
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A taste of international turf racing in bourbon county, Kentucky Downs, where anything can and does happen. Tom and Rich are on the hunt for some prices with full card picks.
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22 to 1 Tom’s Kentucky Downs Tips
Race 1
9 – Grove City Sunset
She didn’t break well in her first start and had no chance. In her second start, she ran about three to four lengths behind at the beginning and closed quickly and wide, but more was needed to do better than fourth. They added blinkers last time. If they run reasonable fractions, she will win.
3 – Will Then
This is a first-time starter with a couple of very good works. The trainer does well getting first ready, with a 41% in-the-money rate. The mare has produced four foals to race, and they all have won, including three on the turf and one stakes winner. Dettori with the ride.
2 – Smartest
She ran well in her first start, finishing second by over three lengths. Okay, now she’s doing workouts to prep for this race. She could win.
Reserves:
If they draw into the race, three of the Also Eligibles must be considered.
13 – Reign Champagne – showed speed in her second start, suggesting she may be ready for a winning effort.
14 – Golden Sunshine – had issues in the running first time and closed strongly.
15 – Derry Girl – In her second start, she broke slowly and came on to run second.
11 – Sheila’s Lion – slow out of the gate and had no chance. It’s a good family with seven foals to race and three turf winners.
Race 2
7 – It’s My Life
He started slowly in his first start, used the rail, and was able to run third by four lengths. That race in February and his workouts have been steady, including some starting gate works. The mare has produced nine foals to race, with seven winners and three stakes winners. Only two of the foals have won on the turf.
I like the first effort and think with the workouts, he’s been saved for a start at this track for a win.
6 – Tapit’staleofverve
His three starts have not been very good. Two starts were in Dubai; the last won at Saratoga on the dirt. Today, they add blinkers and turf is which this horse should get the best efforts from him. I don’t know about winning, but he is a good in-the-money bet.
3 – Go Captain
In his first start at Oaklawn, he was off slow, rushed up, and faded severely to run many lengths behind the winner. That was in December, and now he has excellent workouts. The breeding suggests turf, but this is an exciting move for a second start.
Reserves:
5 – Beer Run – A Wesley Ward who has run six times and in the money four of them. Good enough, or a waste of $460k?
9 – Trust Issues – three reasonable efforts and may be close to getting up in time. Mare has produced turf winners.
All of the Also Eligibles have a chance, take a close look if they draw in.
Race 3
6 – Mischievous Rouge
Won last time out at Hawthorne in five furlong race closing three wide. Ran second in the previous state and again closed strongly. He ran third last year at Kentucky Downs after winning three.
Mike Maker placed him here because he would be close to the leaders for the win.
3 – Sosua Summer
He ran against the top company the last two times out and could not do anything better in the back of the field. Now he’s back down at a level where he has won and placings. He’s been off since June and put in some good workouts on the turf course at Saratoga. He will run much better than the last two race and finish in the money in this race.
7 – One Timer
He has raced only once this year and ran second after setting the pace on the front end. He ran second last year in a race at this track against a grade two company. This is a much better spot for success, and of the previous race, it should be tough against this group of horses. He may win.
Reserves:
8—Front Run the Fed—Two thirds against lesser company has improved over the other races. Watch.
4 – Arrest Me Red – Ward/Dettori combo with a horse who just missed last time out. But in two runs at this track, he only has a third to show for his efforts. Will Dettori make the difference? I doubt it.
Race 4
6 – Norwich
Here’s a horse who likes to find trouble. In his last three races, he has been bumped at the start and still rallied, but only a maiden winning effort. With this going on, what do you do? Add blinkers. The inside post position will be exciting, but the jockey change to John Velazquez improves his chances. The running style suits the track, too.
8 – Baie Longue
His last three races haven’t been good, but the last one in January was a good workout from the starting gate at Churchill. He won off a layoff last year at this track as the favorite, and a return may do the trick. Joel Rosario returns to the saddle, and he won on him before.
4 – Linzer
He set the pace in his last race at Ellis and came up short at the end, running second. His form isn’t the question for me, but his win was on the dirt, but he’s some fondness for the turf. He was DQ in a maiden race on the turf at the Fairground. I can’t leave him off my ticket.
Reserves:
This is a competitive race; two horses are on the Also Eligible list to consider if they draw in.
13 – Glacial Power – Speed outside break and position will be critical for a good finish.
15—Alder—Good workouts. They haven’t raced since May, but Mike Maker gets them ready for this meeting.
9 – King Julien – returns from a layoff and should be competitive here.
5 – Roi Soleil – Ran well last time and needs to finish better.
Race 5
2 – First Navy Jack
He ran second at Pontefract in his first race in an allowance-type race. He challenged for the lead but could not get the win running second. The trainer is also the owner, bringing this horse over for this race. His record could be better, with two winners from 65 starters. Dettori has the ride.
6 – Ky Do Declare
He’s a first-time starter with some excellent workouts for his debut. The mare has produced two raced foals; both are winners, and one won a stakes race. One won on the turf—an exciting runner for Chris Hartman.
3 – Turf Cat
He had an okay effort at first, with some issues at the beginning and more issues, but he still moved forward, running sixth. Add Blinkers today. Looking at the trainer’s record with adding Blinkers, he has done this fourteen times and won at a 36% rate with 64% in the money. He also is good with second-time starters, with a rate of 25% winners and 42% in the money record.
Reserves:
9 – Art Fair – show speed and then go the wrong way. Move to the turf should see improvement.
5 – Crooked Bullet – First-time starter with reasonably good workouts, and the mare has produced one turf winner.
Race 6
9 – Field Lass
The last two efforts by this horse were awful, but they were in stakes company, and now she drops back down to a level that makes sense to me. She has speed; she must break on top and let them catch her. She raced the track last year and didn’t do well but returned to win her next start by over seven lengths.
6 – Makeup
She has yet to run a bad race and has been on the lead or closing. Last time, she lost by four lengths in a race she had a chance, but I don’t think it was the best ride. She will be bet down, and I can’t leave out of my choices.
8 – Howboutdemapples
She pressed the pace in the last race, led at one point, and didn’t finish running third. She’s running in optical claimers to minor stakes races with some success. She won at Kentucky Downs last year, going seven furlongs and being on the lead. Another big effort again?
Reserves
There are two Also Eligible to look at if they draw in:
14 – Zo Lee – good race last time, just missing on the all-weather.
15 – Dear Lady – claimed last time out by Mike Maker, and this move generally means he has a race in mind for this horse.
16 – Krispy Rice – missed last time at this level.
12—Top Gun Girl—She’s in for a tag and coming off a long layoff, but she has some good workouts and is a Wesley Ward return-to-the-races horse.
Race 7
12 – Vino Frizzante
He had a slow start but a fast finish in his career debut. This was on the all-weather—returns from a layoff with workouts that are hard to judge because they are at a training track. I have often found that these training centers tend to be slower-going tracks, and the numbers came to be misleading. I am not fond of the position, but if he runs as he did in the last start, he can close firmly, going uphill at the end. The mare has nine raced foals; seven are winners, and four have won on the turf.
9 – Stage Presence
She had the ten-post position in his first two races and ran well in the first start, finishing second. Then, she was wide in the next start and didn’t get the job done, running fifth. Since those races, she has changed trainers, and the trainers own the horse. She must have seen something because the workouts were good for her return to the races to break her maiden.
7 – Scarlet Poppy
She went off as the favorite last start, was blocked, and had to be steadied in the home stretch. The race before, she ran second in a six-furlong race. Ward/Dettori, this horse will be heavily bet.
Reserves:
8—Maurya needs her return start. She moved forward but didn’t finish, and she needed the start.
4 – Hi’iaka – good run last time. She looks ready for a big effort.
Race 8
6 – Bellum Justum
Last time, he just missed by a neck against an excellent Jan Bruegel (Aiden O’Brien trained) in a group three at Goodwood. At Royal Ascot, he did enough in the Hampton Court to get third. He tried the English Derby and failed (winner City of Troy) after winning two races in a row. Dettori has the ride for Andrew Balding.
8 – Carson’s Run
He won his last two races, the last of which was the grade one Saratoga Derby, beating Legend of Time. He closed strongly to win by three-quarters of a length. This Monmouth race showed that he returned to the winner’s circle. He started the season with a forgivable fourth as the favorite, with many issues and a DQ to move him up in the race.
5 – White Palomino
He’s only a maiden winner, but his efforts in the last two races have been excellent in the Belmont Derby (grade one), running second and second in the other race. He will be the pacesetter and could steal the race with a sensible pace.
Reverses:
3 – Navy Seal – only a minor stake winning in Ireland before being sent to Wesley Ward and ran ok at Canterbury Derby, finishing third, and then an optional claimer at Saratoga, running second. Maybe?
10 – Nomos – He had issues last time and should have won. He appears to be on the upswing.
Race 9
10 – Red Carpet Ready
She missed by a neck last time in her first turf start, running second. She has raced well on the dirt with three graded stakes race wins. If you succeed on the dirt, why run on the turf, even if you’re bred to run on the turf? Good workout coming into this race.
8 – Secret Money
She missed by half a length last time at Saratoga in a grade three race. Her last two races have been excellent overall, except for the DQ. She won her last year in a grade 3 race and off the previous effort plus be considered.
4 – Dontlookbackatall
She has won three in a row, including a grade three race last time. She will run close to the pace, and let’s see what she can do going uphill on the race track.
Reserves:
3 – Ag Bullet – drops back in the distance after a wire-to-wire win at Del Mar; must respect.
11 – Danse Macabre – has run in the money in all her races, including graded stakes races.
Race 10
3 – Fluffy Socks
She got going in the Diana too late to have any chance of running in the money. It’s a winning effort at Pimlico as the big favorite. She drops back in the distance with a record of five starts, three wins, and two seconds. This is her distance, in my thinking, and Chad Brown has her ready for a winning effort here. She will be closing at the end and is one-for-one at this track.
11 – Evvie Jets
She returns to a distance that she has done well in her career. She showed pace in the Diana, but it may be too far for her. She just missed by three-quarters of a length in the Just A Game at one mile running fourth. Her record at one mile is fifteen starts, five wins, three seconds and two thirds. She can go wire to wire or come off the pace.
6 – Walkathon
She won her last two races and has a grade three win at Tampa. She went off the favorite in her previous race and stalked the pace. She won wire-to-wire in the race before. She’s raced at this track before. With a reasonable effort, today will result in getting an in-the-money effort.
Reserves:
On the Also Elegiable list is #13 – Special Wan – an Irish raider who’s always been in money in her five races. She’s placed in two graded stakes races at Leopardstown.
5 – Mouffy – winning effort last time and given her regular days between races. Should be a factor to consider.
Race 11
5 – Birdwatching
She missed at Tampa in her first start in January and dueled most of the way around the turf course. She was laid off and returns with average workouts. She will have company up front, but I think she can finish with a win.
2 – Time for Magic
She ran three races before, which were basically forgettable. In her last race, she woke up and ran third and was in the battle early in the race while racing wide in the mud. She returns to the turf and is ready for a reasonable effort against this bunch.
7 – Rashmi
In her first start of her career, she ran third after trailing by six lengths and moved forward strongly. She was bred for the turf, and she should have gotten a bunch of knowledge out of the first race. She has a good chance here.
Reserve
14 – Bint Al. Dandy – ran second in her first start in Ireland at 28-1. She comes here after working at Saratoga for her second start.
Rich’s Kentucky Downs Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Inside to Outside Closers:
3 – WILL THEN – 3/3 First Time Starter
5 – WONDERLAND – any second race improvement will do
2 – SMARTEST – 70 cent favorite that did not show up at the start
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Speed – 2 Races – 1 Pilot/1Co Pilot – Both 4+
7 – IT’S MY LIFE – 3rd in debut – both horses that beat her won next out and appear to be low level stakes types
4 – GO CAPTAIN – speed and fade in debut – good shot to be a pilot/co-pilot – plenty of good works prepping for first since New Year’s Eve
5 – BEER RUN – not sure if it’s helpful or not – but the only horse with a race at the track – decent enough effort
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Stalkers, 32% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus – 2-7 Small Discount. 8+ Fair
1 – CALL ME FAST – going to take the rail bonus for a horse that should improve in 2nd up – 1st grass is a question
9 – BOURBON HEIST – tends to run well off the bench, decent works getting ready, everything points to being decent on grass
7 – ONE TIMER – Rivelli horse, will be fast – KD 2/1-1 – just don’t want to put 2-1 at the top of a KD ticket
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Speed – 2 Races – 1 Pilot/1Co Pilot – Both 4+
12 – ELEGANT TRIP – should be as good or better in 2nd off he the bench – solid race in lone KD run
1 – COMMITTEE OF ONE – has some late speed and 6-7 furlongs might be the perfect distance
5 – ROI SOLEIL – any of his turf races are probably good enough to win – solid off the sidelines runner
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Speed – 2 Races – 1 Pilot/1Co Pilot – Both 4+
12 – HIT THAT REVIEW – any better than his debut – and he is he winner
5 – CROOKED BULLET – Solid trainer, solid breeding, solid, scheduled works
8 – FLOODLITES – wide trip in debut – should pop to the lead vs experienced horses – no idea what the 1sters will do – I suspect the 6 will send and was highly considered for this spot
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Speed – 2 Races – 1 Pilot/1Co Pilot – Both 4+
12 – TOP GUN GIRL – didn’t want to put the FAV on top, but since I have the 12 in the previous two, how often can you rank the 12 horse 1st three times in a row? Ward horse that should be forward
8 – HOWBOUTDEMAPPLES – one for one at KD – improved LP in last and looking for more in 2nd up
5 – ALTERED SHOT – last turf race will do – some nice works between races
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Speed – 2 Races – 1 Pilot/1Co Pilot – Both 4+
11 – BELLOFTHEBKUEGRASS – just missed last out – three works since – more stamina today
9 – STAGE PRESENCE – will be coming at the end – best published workout since last start
12 – VINO FRIZZANTE – can’t go without the 12 in my picks – but typical 2nd race improvement gets the job done
Race 8: 1 5/16 Miles – Closers – Rail Bonus – 2/3 Dinged, 4+ A Little Better than Par
8 – CARSON’S RUN – not sure about the SP# in that race – but anything close and it’s a winner – just a ½ length from winning 3 of 3 on a downgraded turf course
7 – SEA THE THUNDER – always well bet in England – and has run well on soft
12 – CUGINO – once again the 12 shows up – seems like the longer the better – this is longest of career
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Strong Rail, 2-7 Small Discount, 8+ Fair
11 – DANSE MACABRE – never off the board in 11 races, expecting a career best effort today
4 – DONTLOOKBAKATALL – either of the last two will do, but I see a bounce back race and another that could set a new highwater mark here
8 – SECRET MONEY – just missed against the top two last out and resumes says she will be better today
Race 10: 1 Mile – Tactical Speed, Inside Out Edge
4 – IMPLICATED – three for three at the distance
3 – FLUFFY SOCKS never missed the board at a mile – 3 wins, 2 seconds, 1 by a head bob – broke her maiden in lone KD run, at a mile and with ease
1 – NADETTE – going to take the rail bonus – 4SP# increases in a row, and if her past 3rd up record means anything – could really pop today
Race 11: Tactical Speed, Inside Out Edge
5 – BIRDWATCHING – typical 2nd race gains get the W – should be coming as good as any at the end
4 – ON COMMAND – lone turf race will do – w2w type – worried about late fade
9 – OUR FINEST HOUR – going to end with a flyer here – steadily getting better – always decently bet – never made two starts in a row – finally healthy horse with improved pace through first half last out
