Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Keeneland Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Evangeline Downs
Keeneland Racecourse Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Alibi Ike – His sire wins 16% with 1st time starters and he has a trainer/ jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-1-0).
4 – Ryvit – His Sire wins 16% with 1st time Starters and a good 4F workout on 05Apr Kee 4f gd :48.1 Bg2/10 – Joel Rosario is in the irons and he is trained by Steven Asmussen.
8 – Twist of Faith – His dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and 1 stakes winner and a bullet 3F workout on 05Apr Kee 3f gd :35.2 B 1/17.
1 – Mr. Gordy – The jockey in last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-0).
Alternate:
2 – Lone Leader
Race 2
8 – Nepotism – He finished 3rd vs tougher in last race, received the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Jedrek He ran 2nd in his last race and the trainer wins 66% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite back to race.
2 – California Flirt– The trainer wins 33% of the time in maiden claiming races and the longer distance may help – The jockey in last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-0).
10 – Brown Delivers – Finished 4th after being bumped at the start – Switches to a high % winning jockey and the trainer wins 24% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite back to race. The jockey in last 7 days has this record (21 7-2-4)
Alternate:
1 – Make Way
Race 3
9 – Frills– She won her last race at Turfway Park – The trainer wins 20% of the time when bringing back a winner of their last race again and her early speed running style helps chances.
6 – Russian Roulette – She won her last race at Delta Downs and trainer wins 22% of the time when shipping a horse in to race – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Delta Gamma Cats – She broke badly in her last race and finished a disappointing 6th – She drops in class today, should improve while returning to dirt and the trainer wins 17% of the time in dirt starts.
3 – Kitty’s Promise– She won her last race at Turfway Park earning the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
1 – A Lot of Spunk
Race 4
11 – West Love – She ran 2nd in her debut race- The trainer wins 20% of the time when going from an AW surface to a dirt surface and she may improve with Lasix added.
5 – Aaliyah Ezri – She has been off since last August but has been steadily working out for her return – She has jockey Flavien Prat who in the last 7 days has this record (21 7-2-4) – Lasix has been added.
3 – Steal My Sunshine – She has early speed and can lead all the way if not pressured –
7 – Runaway Wife –The trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (11 3-0-0) and Lasix added
Alternate:
1 – Be Like Water
Race 5
2 – Micky From Wexford – He won his debut race at Keenland – Lasix added.
6 – Overbore – He has finished in the money in all his career races, winning one of them and running 2nd vs similar in last race – He has a high % winning trainer – Lasix added.
12 – Varatti – He won his debut race at Belmont receiving the highest last race speed rating and was well bet in debut – He has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-1) – Lasix added.
8 – La Belleza Negra – He has finished in the money in five of the last six races, winning one of them and the trainer wins 19% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race – A return to dirt should help the shorter distance is a plus – He has a good 4F workout on 06Apr Kee 4f ft :48.2 B 6/16.
Alternate:
1 – Sisaway Now
9 – Sky and Sand
Race 6
6 – Aviano – He has finished in the money in all his career races, winning one of them -He has high % winning trainer Todd Pletcher and a high % winning Jockey who in last 7 days has this record (23 6-5-2) – He has the highest last race speed rating, and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Courageously – He has won two out of the last four races, running 3rd in his last one – He likes the turf finishing in the money in 50% of his turf races, winning three races.
5 – Arabian Prince – He has run 2nd in his last two races on the turf.
7 – Win Worthy – He is a closer who has finished close the last couple of races on the Turf and now has a new jockey Tyler Gaffalione who may just be the ticket he needs to win.
Alternate:
1 – El Kabong
8 – Landbiscuit
Race 7
4 – Stage Raider – He finished 6th in his last race after he Stumbled at the start and came 6-wide into the stretch, but previously he had won two in a row easily – Blinkers added today and jockey in last 7 days has this record (23 6-5-2).
9 – Winter Pool – He won his last race at Aqueduct, has the highest last race speed rating and switches to a high % winning jockey.
7 – Laughing Boy – He ran 2nd in last race, has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days who has this record (11 3-0-0) and a bullet 4F workout on 05Apr GP 4f ft :48 B 1/7.
3 – Portos – He has not raced since last June but has a bullet workout on 06Apr Pbd 5f ft 1:00.4 B ¼ – The trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-1).
Alternate:
1 – Buck Moon
8 – Pirate’s Punch
Race 8
8 – Santa Elena – She has won the last four races in a row; Drops in class today, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a high % winning trainer – The trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
4 – Dream Music – She won her last race at the Fairgrounds and has a decent workout on 02Apr Kee 4f ft :49.2 B 28/72.
7 – Mercy Warren – She won her last race at Gulfstream Park, has a high % winning trainer and a High % winning Jockey.
6 – Runnin Happy– She Finished 3rd in last race and has two bullet workouts in a row.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 4 ½ Furlongs – not enough data for the distance/surface
3 – ALIBI IKE – same story for the 3 &7 as trainer Wesley Ward is solid with sprinters and hits at 29% 1st time starters
8 – TWIST OF FAITH – bullet and go, a little bit of a tighter turn which could help outside horse?
2 – LONE LEADER – solid work on March 11 followed by maintenance work
4 – RYVIT
Race 2 – 1 1/8 Miles, 6 races, 4 won by speed, 3 w2w -PP: all winners 4-7
8 – NEPOTISM – don’t want to take the 7/5 favorite in this spot but… how can you look past 42% msw to mcl and 1st time claiming for trainer Jonathan Thomas?
5 – JEDREK – last two races had significantly better LP#s, maybe better in 3rd start after a layoff
6 – BRODY’S FLY – best EP#s by a decent margin – had to race wide all the way around the track from 11PP – 2 horse only to the inside with speed, should not have to run wide all the way around the track
1 – MAKE WAY – some of the best speed numbers in the field, trainer Kenneth McPeek hits at 20% msw to mcl and 1st mcl
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs, 28 Races, 23 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: Rail bias, inside 3 bias, even 4+
5 – DELTA GAMMA CATS – could get the right trip with some speed in front and sit mid pack, pass tiring speed and stay ahead of closers – distance 8/4-2-0
9 – FRILLS – wanted to rank 1st, but 0/3 at Keeneland, maybe bullet work on March 11 signals times are about to change
7 – WAR EMPRESS – has one race on dirt, it was at Keeneland, and she won by 12. Hasn’t raced since November 5th
6 – RUSSIAN ROULETTE – TY Kennedy says there isn’t any speed like Delta Speed, top EP in the race and could be lone E horse, just worried about Delta/Prairie Meadows vs Keeneland company
Race 4 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 18 races, 13 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: 4-7 have been dominate
3 – STEAL MY SUNSHINE is the other E horse and has the top EP#s by a wide margin, tr Wesley Ward hits 31% 2nd off the bench
9 – CHARGING LADY – splitting the baby so to speak with top pair from experienced bucket and 9 and 8 first timers – decent works, Jose Ortiz and Todd Pletcher, w 4/7 together
8 – MERCI ROAD – $150k horse, Luis Saez winning jock titles everywhere he goes, nice work on March 26 followed by maintenance
11 – WEST LOVE
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 28 Races, 23 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: Rail bias, inside 3 bias, even 4+
6 – OVERBORE – Keeneland 2/0-1-1, fist Lasix with some EP, tr Wesley Ward 27% on 1st Lasix
2 – MICKY FROM WEXFORD – won his debut at Keeneland with a strong late run, nice work on March 30, then a maintenance
12 – VARATTI – won debut in September w/ TLRSP#, 28 f works since March 3
4 – BUCKINGHAM PRINCE – 3rd after a layoff, improvement in 1st half of last race, switch to Irad
Race 6 – 1 1/8 Miles Turf – 4 races, 50/50 – PP: 3 of 4 winners inside 3
5 – ARABIAN PRINCE – has the top LP#s and has 2/0-2-0 at distance, will be flying and should be better in 2nd start off the bench
6 – AVIANO – TLRSP# and never missed the board in 6 starts including one on a sloppy track
7 – WIN WORTHY – is one for one at Keeneland, another that should be trucking late
9 – KING VEGA – could be pace in a race filled with closers and chasers, faces G1,2,3 company in England
Race 7 – 1 1/16 Miles – 33 races, 23 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: Big rail bias, inside 3 and big penalty 8+
4 – STAGE RAIDER – has the top LP#s by a wide margin and is usually mid pack, could be closer today without a ton of EP in here
9 – WINTER POOL – won hos last by 7 ½ and the resume says he could be better in Round 2 off the bench, has a second in one at Keeneland
7 – LAUGHING BOY – a couple of bullet works getting ready for first race since Noe 25, has a win at Keeneland, and is 2/1-1-0 at the distance
8 – PIRATE’S PUNCH – hard call over 3, but has been faced graded and NGD company and is 13/3-3-4 at the distance
Race 8 – 7 Furlongs, 4 races, 3 won by speed and w2w – PP: 2 winner rail, 1 from 2/3 and 8+ on the other
8 – SANTA ELENA – has the top EP in the field, winner of 3/3 on fast
4 – DREAM MUSIC – can sit near the front or be on the lead like her last and has top LP#s
7 – MERCY WARREN – broke her maiden in her last with TLRSP# and ATB improvement
2 – RISATA – could be better in 3rd start after a layoff, will need to bounce back from regression in her last
