Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Horseshoe Indianapolis Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Evangeline Downs
Horseshoe Indianapolis Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
7 – Compressed Energy – She had a disappointing race at Turfway Park finishing last, the distance could have been the problem, but she has some average workouts that may indicate she is alright and cuts back to 5-furlongs which should fit her running style and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer wins 22% of the time when entering a horse after 46-90 days break.
4 – Passing Image – She hasn’t race since last September but has a good workout 4F workout on 08Apr Ind 4f ft :49 Bg3/63 and the trainer win 20% of the time when his entry has been off 90+ days.
1 – Shes My Treasure – She won her last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, formerly known as Indiana Grand, last November but has a decent workout on 04Apr Ind 4f ft :51.2 B 7/19.
5 – Beautiful D – She has finished in the money in four out of eight races at Horseshoe Indianapolis – She has several workouts in a row in preparation for this race.
Alternate:
2 – Justa Doll
3 – Senorita Emma
Race 2
3 – Nobel – He comes in from Gulfstream Park after running 2nd only losing by a neck earning the highest last race speed rating – He has been very consistent finishing in the money in his last three races.
9 – Racarino – He comes in from Hawthorne after running 2nd vs similar in last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has decent workout on 30Mar Ind 4f ft :50© B 2/25.
6 – Intend – He appears not to like the mud as he finished last at 6-fulongs – He is a speed horse and drops back to 5-furlongs which may help, and he drops in class today. The trainer wins 22% of the races when he takes the blinkers off his horse, and he has a good 4F workout on 08Apr Ind 4f ft :49¨ B 12/63.
2 – Ronnie’s Vice – He tried The Fairgrounds in his last race and ran an average race earning his highest speed rating and cuts back in distance.
Alternate:
8 – Baronne
1 – Even Money
Race 3
7 – Beirut Beauty – She has been racing at Turfway Park where she finished in the money in two out of the last four races – The trainer wins 24% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.
8 – Miss Bette Lute – She likes Horseshoe Indianapolis finishing in the money in five out of nine races, winning one – She drops in class today, her best dirt speed is close to the avg winning speed and may improve with Blinkers added today.
9 – One Fast Orb – She came in from Turfway Park where she finished in the money in two out of the last three races winning one and running 2nd in her last race – She has the highest last race speed rating and can improve at the shorter distance.
4 – Diamond Lydiamarie – She is another horse coming in from Turfway Park where she had a couple of mid-pack finishes – The trainer wins 36% of the races when bringing a horse back that has been off 46-90days- She should improve while returning to dirt as her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
5 – Sweet Ginger
1 – Lady of Liberty
Race 4
7 – American Pure – He has finished in the money in the first three races of his career at Turfway Park, finishing 1st in the last race at today’s distance – The trainer wins 27% of the time when shipping a horse in to race and he has a bullet workout 4F workout on 15Apr Ind 5f ft :59.3 B 1/22.
6- Mine Own Star – He is a speed horse who has run 2nd at today’s distance – Should improve at the shorter distance and has a good 4F workout on 11Apr OP 4f ft :47© B 2/27.
5 – Polar Wind – He is a closer who has won at today’s distance, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – He may improve with blinkers added today and has a bullet 3F workout on 12Apr Ind 3f ft :35.4 Bg1/46.
2 – Fever Temple – He likes the track finishing in the money in seven out of fourteen times, winning two and the distance finishing in the money in four out of six times, winning two.
Alternate:
4 – Powerful Point
Race 5
9 – Sharp Justice – She has finished in the money in seven out of ten at races Horseshoe Indianapolis winning the last race – The trainer wins 25% of the races when he when he brings a horse who won their maiden race back to race again and he has a good 5F workout on Apr-12.
2 – Bella Bolle – She has finished in the money in two out of two career races winning the last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis – She has a workout on 08Apr Ind 4f ft :49.3 Bg14/63.
10 – Lexi Sun – She won her last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis leading all of the way so her early speed running style should help and she has a decent workout on 15Apr Ind 3f ft :37 B 7/24.
5 – Summer Home – She has finished in the money in four out of the last five races winning the last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis and has a decent workout on 05Apr Njf 4f gd :50 Bg8/20.
Alternate:
7 – Kisses So Sweet
4 – No Drama Momma
Race 6
3 – Kaely’s Sister – She has finished in the money in four out of five career races winning three of the races the last win at Saratoga – She has the highest last race speed rating; best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer wins 27% of the time when shipping a horse in to race.
10 – Bellarific – She has finished in the money in all of her races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, winning one out of three races there – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race at Tampa Bay Downs and her early speed running style will work well with the shorter distance.
1 – Wellington Wonder – She has been running at Oaklawn Park and comes back to run at Horseshoe Indianapolis where she is always competitive winning five of eleven starts – The distance of today’s race will not be a problem and she has a good 5F workout on Apr-09.
2 – Varton – She does well at Horseshoe Indianapolis finishing in the money four out of the five races last year and she does well at today’s distance – She has a good workout on 12Apr Ind 3f ft :36.3 B 10/46.
Alternate:
8 – Docs Seven
7 – Wild Tapit
Race 7
8 – Cibolo – He Ran 2nd vs similar in his only start, heavily bet in debut and has a bullet workout on 15Apr Ind 3f ft :35.1 Bg1/24.
1 – Rookwood – He finished in the money in both of his career races, finishing 3rd vs similar in his last race and has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 55% of the races when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a Sharp 5F workout on Apr-10.
7 – For Mama – He finished 3rd vs similar in his only start – The trainer wins 18% of the races when his entry is in the 2nd career race, and he may improve with Blinkers added today.
10 – Charlie Two Sox – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race – The trainer wins 28% of the races when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and has a good workout 4F workout on 15Apr Ind 3f ft :37.1 B 8/24.
Alternate:
3 – Just Phil
5 – Barn Stormer
Race 8
9 – Violent Outburst – She ran 4th in her first career race at The Fairgrounds earning the highest last race speed rating, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she drops in class today.
8 – Mi Crescendo – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 18% with 1st time Starters, Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters, breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has three decent workouts.
11 – Peach Cobbler – Comes in from Gulfstream Park to try Horseshoe Indianapolis, drops in class today and has a great Prime Power number 113.1 (1st).
12- Stella Teresa – She has run at three different tracks but returns to Horseshoe Indianapolis where she showed early speed in her only race here and the trainer wins 50% of the races when using 2nd time Lasix.
Alternate:
1 – Keen Ice Sight
2 – Irish Tap
Race 9
8 – Poetic Verse– She won her debut race getting the highest last race speed rating and was heavily bet in the debut – She has several good workouts in a row including a bullet work on 04Apr Ind 4f ft :49.1 B 1/19.
5 – Tappin Into Summer – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – She may improve with blinkers added today and she has a good 3F workout on 12Apr Ind 3f ft :36ª B 10/46.
9 – Express Lady – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis and she has a good workout on 08Apr Ind 4f ft :49.4 B 17/63.
1 – Sweet Justice – She ran 2nd in her last race last July at Horseshoe Indianapolis and has a nice 3F workout on 12Apr Ind 3f ft :36 B 4/46.
Alternate:
10 – Perfect Smokey Eye
2 – Mi Estrella
Race 10
6 – Mg to Fancy Macho – He had a disappointing race in his last race but was brushed, in tight and shifted his run – Prior to that race he had some good races finishing close at the end and he has a good workout on 08Apr Ind 1f ft :12.1 B 2/9.
4 – Tres of Glory – He ran 3rd in his last race only losing by a neck.
8 – Good Candy Girl– He comes in from Ruidoso Downs where he has been competing against tougher horses and he has a good workout on 01Apr Ind 1f ft :12.1 Bg7/20
3- Fe Thunderstruck– He has three nice workouts.
Alternate:
10 – Vf Zip to the Moon
5 – Hs Easy to Love
Race 1 – 5 furlongs, 74 races, 58 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: little edge 4-7, penalty 8+
Most of these have been on the shelf for a while.
4 – PASSING IMAGE – 22f of works since March 11 and the last was strong, tr Aaron West 20% off 90+ days
7 – COMPRESSED ENERGY – ran most recently on Feb 16th, 12f works since March 30, big weight break for horse with some of the best EP#s
2 – JUSTA DOLL – tr Marvin Johnson scores at 15% 90+ days off with 0.54 ROI, OK works getting ready, ITM 6/12 at Indy and 4/6 at distance
3 – SENORITA EMMA – looks like the best of the rest and better suited for shorter races than the others
Race 2 – 5 furlongs, 74 races, 58 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: little edge 4-7, penalty 8+
8 – BARONNE – LS – MSW dropper from Sam Houston, showed speed before stopping in first on dirt, tr Thomas Amoss hits 26% off the MSW to MCL drop, bullet work on March 31 at Indy – Eddie C angle – $200k horse
3 – NOBEL – GP track drop, missed in last by a neck, been close in short sprints 3/0-1-2, $75k horse
9 – RACARINO – probably going to be the favorite, gets weight break, missed as even money favorite at Hawthorne last out, $90k horse
4 – ELVIS JUST ELVIS – could improve in 2nd after a layoff, much better ATB in his last
Race 3 – 5 furlongs, 74 races, 58 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: little edge 4-7, penalty 8+
1 – LADY OF LIBERTY – tied for the highwater speed mark at Indy with #8, taking the more lightly races horse because it may not have shown its full potential
7 – BEIRUT BEAUTY – 2nd start off the claim for tr Genaro Garcia, 24% hit rate, should rate and try to close, has most back class
5 – SWEET GINGER – EP#s say she has a chance to be on the lead, bullet work at Keeneland on April 5, if she can get the right fractions, could hit at a price
8 – MISS BETTE LUTE – Indy 9/1-2-2, last ran on Feb 16, a couple of decent works since, vulnerable ML fav – hard call over #3
Race 4 – 1 mile, 113 races, 80 won by speed, 21 w2w -PP: rail bias, 2-7 slightly better than 8+
7 – AMERICAN PURE – 3SP# increases in three races, Brad Cox horse, 200K, bullet work on April 15 at Indy
5 – POLAR WIND – has the top Indy numbers, last work was a blistering 35.4 Breezing from the gate, that’s fast
6 – MINE OWN STAR – comes in from Oaklawn and has some EP, gets a weight break and has a swift work since, distance 2/0-2-0
2 – FEVER TEMPLE – ITM 7/14 at Indy and 6/2-2-0 at the distance, runs well fresh
Race 5 – 5 furlongs, 74 races, 58 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: little edge 4-7, penalty 8+
7 – KISSES SO SWEET – going to take my flier here, two really fast works in last three, 3f in 35.4 B and 5f on a gd track in 100.2 B, broke maiden at the distance/track/surface, gets weight break
10 – LEXI SUN – outside post hurts, has EP but plenty of speed to the inside, can go w2w if she gets the lead
5 – SUMMER HOME – tough call over #3 & 6, but I’ll take the 4 yo over the 3 yos and Indy record of 5/1-3-0
6 – LASHES – has some of the best EP# in the field, works have been of leading up to today
Race 6 – 5 ½ furlongs, 170 races, 126 won by speed, 49 w2w – PP: 4-7 best, 8+ better than 1-3
3 – KAELY’S SISTER – won a starters ALW in July by 7 vs a field of 6, two of the other three have won races since, should be on the gas from go but is likely to be bet down
10 – BELLARIFIC – is two for two at the distance, 7/9 ITM on a fast track, 3/1-0-2 at Indy, first time this horse has been this far outside, should be fit after running in Tampa sand
1 – WELLINGTON WONDER – Indy 11/5-2-2, 20f of strong works since returning from Oaklawn – should be fit and fast
5 – LOFTHOUSE – another that likes Indy 5/1-2-1, 9/0-1-1 elsewhere, solid 2/4f improvement in last, aggressive rider in DeShawn Parker
Race 7 – 5 furlongs, 74 races, 58 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: little edge 4-7, penalty 8+
1 – ROOKWOOD – was less than even money fav in last effort in November, tr John Langemeier winner 5/9 with BTN FAVS, some good works getting ready
8 – CIBOLO – just missed in debut way back in Aug as the favorite, some bullet works getting ready – not 100% I want a closer
10 – CHARLIE TWO SOX – should be close to the pace, missed as Favorite too, tr Antonio Duran comes back to win at 28% – not a fan of the outside post
3 – JUST PHIL – got to have a shot in here, jy Orlando Majica 12 most sprint wins in last meet, but all but 3 ran a lot more races
Race 8 – 5 furlongs, 74 races, 58 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: little edge 4-7, penalty 8+
An anything can happen race
9 – VIOLENT OUTBURST – TLRSP# and drops in class and from FG, a decent work since, Thomas Amoss hits at 21% with shippers
8 – MI CRESCENDO – looks like the best of the 1st time starters, 27f of works since March 7, should be fit, question is will she be fast
11 – PEACH COBBLER – another track dropper from Gulfstream, 150k horse – close to all the others combined
4 – MEDWAY QUEEN – 3rd track dropper from FG MSW 46k, got off to a decent start, a good Indy work since
Race 9 – 5 furlongs, 74 races, 58 won by speed, 27 w2w – PP: little edge 4-7, penalty 8+
8 – POETIC VERSE – won her debut easily in June with the TLRSP# by a good margin, good works getting ready
5 – TAPPIN INTO SUMMER – never missed the board at the distance, 3/1-0-1 with the top SP# at Indy by a decent margin
1 – SWEET JUSTICE – INDY 8/1-4-0, distance 3/0-2-0, has some early speed, and a fast work on April 12
3 – LADY DONT MIND – just needs to rewind to debut race going w2w and “gearing down” at the end
Race 10 – 300 yards!
4 – TRES OF GLORY – usually gets the best break of all of these – hugely important – middle PP can be bad
6 – MG TO FANCY MACHO – has a lot of back class, second best starts in the field
8 – GOOD CANDY GIRL – faster 330 time by .19 than next pick #9 – that doesn’t seem like a lot, but it’s huge at 330 yards
12 – MORE FABULOUS – always consider taking the most outside horse in QH races
