Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Keeneland Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Horseshoe Indianapolis
Keeneland Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Kitty’s Promise – She finished 5th in her last race at Keenland after barring out in the start but despite the trouble she received the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 27% of the time in claiming races.
1 – Ancient Brown – He Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race at Keenland – The trainer wins 17% of the time in Sprints and she may improve at the shorter distance.
5 – Princess Renee – She is a closer who comes in from the Fairgrounds after winning a race and then finishing 6th only beaten 4-1/4 lengths in the last two races at 6 furlongs and now stretches out to 7 furlongs which I think is right what she needs.
4 – Smokin Hot Bobbie – This one comes in from Turfway Park where she finished 6th after having an awkward start and a wide trip – Her best dirt speed is the fastest among today’s starters, the trainer wins 17% of the time in dirt starts and blinkers are added today which may help.
Alternate:
2 – Especially You
4 – Smokin Hot Bobbie
Race 2
5 – Federalist Papers – She finished 3rd at 1-1/2 miles on a race originally scheduled for the turf but taken off to the dirt track – Today’s race is at the same distance and scheduled on the turf, – She has done well on the turf in the past as her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and her trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-4-0).
6 – Bella Conchita – She won her last race at Turfway Park at 1-1/16 miles but has a close 2nd at 1-1/2 miles at Kentucky Downs – She has the highest last race speed rating and a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0).
1 – Met in Miami – She comes in from Laurel Park where she finished 5th after having a wide trip coming into the stretch – Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has some good workouts.
4 – Three Tipsy Chix– She going to try Keenland for the first time and has a good workout 5F workout on 22Apr Kee 5f ft 1:00¨ B 4/17.
Alternate:
2 – Noble Enterprise
Race 3
4 – Ballin on a budjet – He finished in the money in three out of the last four races winning two – He comes in from The Fairgrounds after competing in the 75K Star Guitar finishing 6th out of fourteen starters and drops back to the claiming ranks where he has been competitive in the past.
2 – Bless the Kitten – He comes in from Turfway Park after finishing 3rd (on AW) in his last contest to race again at Keenland where he finished in 2nd in one of his two starts and he is returning to dirt offers hope for improvement.
3 – Fortune’s Fool – He has been racing at Laurel where he won his last race and comes to Keenland to try for a third time to win – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Hemp Heaven– He has one start at Keenland and won that race, comes back to try and repeat – He may improve while returning to dirt which can help.
Alternate:
1 – My Bariley
Race 4
4 – Trouble Making – She has the most experience of all the starters which I think many would say sixteen starts without a win WOW!!, but she has finished in the money 100% of the time at 5-1/2-furlongs and finished on the turf in five out of eight starts – Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and trainer wins 50% of the time putting blinkers back on.
9 – Never At All – She ran 2nd in her last three races, the trainer wins 18% of the time when shipping in and she has two good workouts in a row in preparation for this race.
7 – Georgetown Road – She has the highest last race speed rating, a high % winning jockey, her Dam has 2 winners from 5 starters (but 0 Turf winners) and the trainer wins 17% of the time in Sprints.
1 – Chardy Party – She is a first-time starter, but her breeding suggests she will like the grass, she has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (8 2-1-2) and a Sharp 4F workout on 23Apr Kee 4f ft :47© B 4/94.
Alternate:
11 – Doozy Batz
Race 5
9 – Coco Puff – She finished in the money in two out of her last four races, switches to a high % winning jockey – Figures to improve while returning to dirt and the trainer wins 27% of the time when taking a horse from turf to dirt.
10 – Jumakan Bourbon – She finished in the money in both of her career starts finishing 3rd (on AW) in last her race and has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
1 – American Heights – She comes in from Santa Anita to try Keenland for the first time – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a nice 4F workout on 23Apr CD 3f ft :36 B 4/21.
2 – No silver spoons here– She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and a bullet 5F workout on 22Apr Ttc 5f ft 1:01. B ¼.
Alternate:
11 – West Love
Race 6
9 – Floriform – He finished in the money in his last four races, finishing 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-1-0).
6 – Leblon – He finished in the money in 100% of his races during 2022 winning one of the races, finishing 2nd (on AW) in last race with jockey Smokin Joe Talamo and and Talamo returns to ride again.
5 – Skyro – He finished in the money in four out of his last five races, has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer wins 23% of the time in the 3rd race off a layoff.
Alternate:
12 – Palazzi
3 – Absam
Race 7
5 – Silent Disco – She has finished in the money in three out of her four career races, winning one of the races and finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
3 – Down Cold – She is trained by Steven Asmussen, has jockey Tyler Gaffalione and has a couple of decent workouts.
1 – Bureau – She may improve while returning to dirt trying Keenland for the first time.
4 – Maximum Impact – Her best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has been working out steadily.
Alternate:
2 – Expensive Cut
Race 8
5 – American Pyramid – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, has a trainer who wins 25% of the time when entering a horse for the 1st time on the turf and a Sharp 4F workout on 20Apr Kee 4f ft :47.4 B 8/42.
4 – Spare Cash – She ran 2nd in her last race on an all-weather track, has the highest last race speed rating – She has a high % winning jockey, a trainer who wins 31% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race and she may improve at the shorter distance.
9 – Saffron Moon – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, has a Dam who has 1 winner from 3 starters (but 0 Turf winners) and has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Under One Sky – She ran 4th in a race at Kentucky Downs at today’s distance, on the turf and the trainer wins 20% of the time when taking a horse from dirt to turf and she may improve with Lasix added.
Alternate:
12 – Honeycomb
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 7 furlongs, 16 races, 11 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: Inside 3 and 8+ >4-7
3 – KITTY’S PROMISE – TLRSP#, drops in class and gets a weight break, should be better in 3rd off the layoff
2 – ESPECIALLY YOU – has some of the top EP#s, was better in 2/4f #s in the mud
1 – ANCIENT BROWN – could be better in her second start after a layoff, has EP# and cuts back in distance
5 – PRINCESS RENEE – is making her first start since early March, won last fresh run and second by ½ length on previous fresh start
Race 2 – 1 ½ miles turf, 4 races, 4 won by speed, 1 w2w -PP: 1 winner 2/3, the rest 4-7
6 – BELLA CONCHITA – TLRSP#, resume says she could regress a little in round 3, would still be good enough
5 – FEDERALIST PAPERS – jy/tr Irad Ortiz and Chad Brown winners 10/24 and ITM 19/24 with 0.18 ROI
1 – MET IN MIAMI – better in the 1st half of last race and typically has some of the best LP#s
2 – NOBLE ENTERPRISE
Race 3 – 1 1/16 miles, 25 races, 13 won off the pace, 2 w2w -PP: Inside 3 and 8+> 4-7
3 – FORTUNE’S FOOL – has the ability to stay close to the lead and had some extra late punch in his last, two maintenance works since his last
2 – BLESS THE KITTEN – might step forward in his third start after a layoff, better 1 mile final time last out
5 – HEMP HEAVEN – blew a tire in his last, headed to the bench, won last two fresh races and is one for one at Keeneland
1 – MY BARILEY – has three seconds in three at the distance, 15f of works since April 1
Race 4 – 5 ½ furlongs turf, 11 races, 8 won by speed, 3 w2w -PP 2-7 fair, 0 from rail, 1 from 8+
4 – TROUBLE MAKING – LS – 2/4 EP# exploded higher in last, distance 5/0-1-4, turf 8/0-2-5
7 – GEORGETOWN ROAD – TLRSP#, increased SP# in each race, better 2f and LP improvement in last
1 – CHARDY PARTY – taking the two best looking first timers here, both Wesley Ward horses, post positions for both are concerning, but you can’t discount Irad or Johnny V with Ward
11 – DOOZY BATZ
Race 5 – 7 furlongs, 16 races, 11 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: Inside 3 and 8+ >4-7
2 – NOSILVERSPOONSHERE – pay attention to the odds board, if she takes money, she’ll live for tr/jockey combo of Flavien Pratt and Brad Cox, winners 4/10, ITM 6/10, 0.98 ROI
9 – COCO PUFF – upgrades to Irad, flips from turf to dirt, 27% winner for trainer Keith Desormeaux, better by about 1 second at 1 mile on FG turf in last
11 – WEST LOVE – getting Lasix for the 2nd time, trainer Ben Colebrook hits 22%, nice improvement in 2nd race compared to debut, small drop in class
1 – AMERICAN HEIGHTS – ships in from Santa Anita, making 1st start for William Morely, 20% angle, 24% on shippers and has two good works at CD since April 17th.
Race 6 – 1 1/16 miles turf, 12 races, 50/50, 0 w2w – PP: zero from rail, 4-7 >2/3 and 8+
9 – FLORIFORM – is no more than 2 lengths from going 4 for 4 since switching to grass, drops from a the G3 Tampa Bay
10 – MONITION – 2nd by a neck in his last, which was the first run since late November, won lone trip at Keeneland in career race #2
1 – CELLIST – should be mid packish with decent late run
11 – POINT ME BY – has not raced since February 19th, 26f of works since and few strong ones at Keeneland
Race 7 – 1 1/16 miles, 25 races, 13 won off the pace, 2 w2w -PP: Inside 3 and 8+> 4-7
2 – EXPENSIVE CUT – TLRSP#, carrying 7 pounds less than the other 4, faster fractions as 7f than 6 ½, maintenance work since last reluctant pacesetter?
3 – DOWN COLD – slightly better AB, 10f of works since last effort on March 23
5 – SILENT DISCO – considerably better early numbers first half mile of last race, friend of the show John Ortiz put 16f into this horse since last outing
1 – BUREAU – limited resume says he’ll be better in 2nd start after a layoff
Race 8 – 1 mile turf, 7 races, 5 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP: 2 from rail, 4 from 2/3 and 1 4-7
10 – DIVA READY – decent works, Luis Saez gets off contender #12 to ride here, tr Jonathan Thomas 7/2-4-0 at this Keeneland
4 – SPARE CASH – 3rd off the break, missed as the favorite in his last, tr Brad Cox rebounds at 31%, much better fractions in last
5 – AMERICAN PYRAMID – two solid races, now flips to turf, 25% winner for trainer Wayne Catalano, nice maintenance work since last
12 – HONEYCOMB – has a major bump in her SP# in first on turf, been on the bench since, 21f of strong works getting ready
