Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Gulfstream Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Gulfstream Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Zip Line to Heaven – Likes turf finishing three out of four times in the money, winning one and now returns to turf. Likes the distance finishing three out of three times in the money, winning one.
4 – Scotty Brown – Switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-3-3) – The trainer wins 17% of the races when her entry has been 90+ days away – Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters. Bumped start last race
6 – Determined Fury – Beaten only 1-1/2 lengths vs similar (on AW) in last start and now returns to the turf where he has done well – He has the highest last race speed rating – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (24 8-2-3).
7 – Aeronaut- Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race -Switches to a high % winning jockey.
Race 2
5 – Where’s Joey – Beaten only 1.50 lengths vs similar (on AW) in last start and received the highest last race speed rating – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Awesome Pudding ran disappointing 8th after being bumped start in his last race – Drops in class today.
6 – Pride and Passion – Switches to a high % winning jockey and has a trainer in the last 14 days has this record (10 4-0-2).
3 – American Matters – Has plenty of early speed which helps chances. The trainer wins 33% of the races when dropping off a claim – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
1 – Pacific Legend
2 – Abhar
Race 3
4 – Mr Tito’s – Likes the track finishing eight out of ten times in the money, winning three and likes the distance finishing seven out of eight times in the money, winning two. The trainer wins 20% of the time when bringing back a Beaten favorite back to race.
3 – Town Classic- Returning to dirt which may help – The trainer wins 31% of the time in the 2nd race after being claimed – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0).
1 – Financial System – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and received the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 28% of the time in the 1st race after being claimed – Early speed running style helps chances – Jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (10 4-1-1).
5 – Lusitano – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race at GP, has a high % winning trainer and Jockey – Highest speed figure at today’s distance
Alternate:
6 – Benefactor
2 – Blessed Journey
Race 4
3 – R Girl’s Werth It – Ran 2nd vs similar (on AW) in the last race losing only by a nose and received the highest last race speed rating – Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and 1 Turf winner – The Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
6 – Devilly – Finished 3rd vs similar (on AW) in last race – Has a high % winning Jockey – Best Turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
9 – Magniloquent – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race, has a high % winning trainer – Lasix added
11 – Rufa Red Knot – ran disappointing 8th after being bumped start in his last race – Breeding suggests she will like the grass; the Dam has 5 winners from 7 starters and 2 Turf winners – The trainer wins 24% of the time when bringing back a Beaten favorite back to race. – Should improve at the shorter distance – Lasix added.
Alternate:
13 – Always a Party
9 – Magniloquent
Race 5
4 – Russian to Win – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and received the highest last race speed rating – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – Hey Porter – High % winning trainer who wins 39% of the races when going from a route to a sprint.
3 – Frolic Man – Finished 5th in his last race after a slow start at Gulfstream Park – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0)
2 – Rhymes Like Dimes – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-1-0) – Decent workout on 12Feb 4f ft :49 B 18/68.
Alternate:
1 – Frosted Armour
6 – Rayo Colorado
Race 6
4 – Free to Fly – Finished in the money fourteen out of the last fourteen races, winning ten of the races. She finished 3rd in the last race, has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer wins 26% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite back to race -Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
7 – Larimar – Only beaten only 1-3/4 lengths (on AW) in last start – Has a high % winning Jockey and should improve while returning to Dirt.
5 – Dem a Wonder – She has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (24 8-2-3) -She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
1 – Awesome Annmarie – She switches to a high % winning jockey, drops in class today and the rail post is winning at 24% clip.
Alternate:
6 – Sheza Happy Girl
2 – Playera
Race 7
4 – On Alert – Won last race at GP on the Turf earning the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 25% of the time with 2nd time Lasix – Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters Jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (10 4-1-1).
7 – My Philly Twirl – Won last race GP on the Turf – Sharp 4F workout (Feb-08).
1 – Surreal Fantasy – Bumped hard in her last race and lost all chance – Drops in class today – Lasix added and the trainer wins 25% of the time with 1st time Lasix.
3 – Love Her Lots – Won two out of three races in her career – Breeding suggests she will like the grass – The trainer wins 25% of the time when bringing the winner of the entries last race to compete again.
Alternate:
6 – Kitten’s Collusion
Race 8
4 – La Rusia – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has a high % winning trainer and Jockey – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-0).
6 – English Charmer – Switches to a high % winning jockey and a trainer wins 20% of the time in the 2nd start w a turn – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-3-3).
3 – Kentucky Pride – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – The trainer wins 19% of the time in 2nd race after a layoff.
10 – Khosea – Switches to a high % jockey who in last 7 days has this record (24 8-2-3).
Alternate:
5 – Belle’s Kingdom
1 – Eagle Eye
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 Furlongs Turf: 31 Races, 20 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: 2/3 and 8+, small rail penalty
6 – Determined Fury – TOP EP by big margin, Top Pedigree, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 3rd off a layoff
4 – Scotty Brown – Biggest DROP 90-36, GP 3/0-2-1 Distance 4/0-2-1, mixed bag off the bench
7 – Aeronaut – in race improvement 2/4f pace #s, 2nd best 4F pace#s, which is the turn, Fastest 1/4 Fractions
1 – Zip Line to Heaven – 3rd after a layoff, Denzel horse, distance 3/1-2-0
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs Dirt: 73 Races, 67 won by speed, 32 w2w -PP: Rail, inside 3 bias and 8+>4-7
3 – American Matters – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 2nd biggest DROP 30-24, 20F works since Dec 20
5 – Wheres Joey – 2nd off a layoff, should be better than 1st, TPLRSP # on AW, ITM 2/1-0-1 Dirt
4 – Awesome Pudding – won debut w/ Tyler G w2w at GP 6f, he’s back, 2nd off a layoff, decent work since last
7 – High Yield Kitten – top LP# by a good margin, sharper 2/4f pace #s in last, 3rd off the bench, best of the bunch in last 3 race cycle. Tough call with 6
Race 3 – 1 Mile Dirt (1 turn): 60 Races, 46 won by speed, 20w2w -PP: fair 1-7, 8+ has edge
1 – Financial System – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 3rd off the break, two works since last, 1st off the claim, Tr Jorge Delgado 39/135
3 – Town Classic – GP 8/0-5-1, 4/0-4-0, Only DROP 50-28, 3rd off a layoff, better 2/4f pace #s in last
6 – Benefactor – should be close to the pace, maybe pacesetter, upgrade if it’s wet, just needs to run back to last on dirt
4 – Mr Titos – 10/3-3-2 @ GP, 8/2-3-2 @ Distance, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
Race 4 – 5 Furlongs Turf: 31 Races, 20 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: 2/3 and 8+, small rail penalty
6 – Devilly – L Saez stays here instead of 9, ran well in turf debut, and AW in last 2 just in case, LRSP>PAR, 3 SP# Increases, 3rd off a layoff
3 – R Girls Werth It – Top EP/LP Combo, LRSPP# off the bench, decent work since last, 3 SP# Increases
9 – Magniloquent – 29f works since December 28, 1st Lasix with some speed, LRSP>PAR
11 – Rufa Red Knot – Top EP#s with 1st time Lasix, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, Tr M Casse and J Edwin Gonzalez +2.42 ROI, winner 11/35 together
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs Dirt: 73 Races, 67 won by speed, 32 w2w -PP: Rail, inside 3 bias and 8+>4-7
4 – Russian to Win – 3SP# Increases, only 2 works since Jan 8, Tie Top EP/LP Combo, might need one
2 – Rhymes Like Dimes – 2f pace improvement in last, cuts back in class, jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz, OK work since
3 – Frolic Man – 3 SP# Increases, QTA last ran Feb 6, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
7 – Spring the Beast – Top Pedigree, breaks well, early speed fist Lasix, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, tough call over 6
6 – Rayo Colorado – best EP by a little, always well bet,
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs Dirt: 73 Races, 67 won by speed, 32 w2w -PP: Rail, inside 3 bias and 8+>4-7
4 – Free to Fly – Top EP#s, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 10 HQ races, GP 14/6-4-3, Dist 10/8-1-1
5 – Dem a Wonder – 2nd after a layoff, should be better in second start, upgrade to Irad
7 – Larimar – another 2nd off the bench, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, a decent work since last race
3 – Simplify – 10 pound weight break, 3 SP# increases, has early pace, Distance 2/0-2-0, GP 11/2-3-0 – taking a shot here
Race 7 – 1 1/16 Miles Turf: Turf Routes, 62 Races, 37 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: fair 1-7, 8+ penalty
4 – On Alert – TPLRSP#, 19F works since last on Jan 2, big time LP improvement in race#2, Top Pedigree, LRSP>PAR
7 – My Philly Twirl – big improvement in 2/4/LP Pace #s in race #2, two good works since
6 – Kittens Collusion – top jock L Saez rides here instead of #1, 16F works since Jan 7
3 – Love Her Lots
Race 8 – 1 Mile 70 yards AW: 81 Races, 46 closers/stalkers, 8 w2w – PP: slight inside 3 bias, 8+ penalty
3 – Kentucky Pride – Tie Top EP/LP combo, big pop in first off the bench, worried about bounce, maintenance work since.
4 – La Rusia – first since Jan 1, 12F works since Jan 23, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, Denzel all the way, lifetime 27/1-12-3
1 – Eagle Eye – is the other tie for Top EP/LP Combo, 3SP# Increases, 2nd off a layoff and another possible bounce
6 – English Charmer – 3SP# Increases, 2nd off a layoff, upgrade to Jose Ortiz , tough call over 10,8,5
