Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Center with Darius Thorpe
Horse Racing Picks
Gulfstream Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Gulfstream Park Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Peter D- Won three races in a row at Gulfstream and at today’s distance- His best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters
5 – California Frolic – Won the last two races in a row receiving the highest last race speed rating -Drops in class today – The trainer wins 100% when their entry drops in class off win – Lasix added
1 – Tang – Won his debut race Gulfstream – Well bet in debut – Lasix added
3 – K. C. Chief – Drops in class today ñ May improve with Lasix added
Race 2
4 – El Pecado finished in the money in his last four races – High winning % Jockey Paco Lopez – Highest last race speed rating (tie) -Best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters
6 – Crown of Honor switches to a high % jockey Luis Saez -Drops in class today – The trainer wins 21% of the time when going from the Turf to AW
7 – Warn – High % trainer – Switches to a high % jockey – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 25% when going from Mdn to MdnClm.
5 – I Gen- Sharp 3F workout on 14Jan Pmm 3f ft :36.1 B 2/11)
Race 3
4 – Shawnee Princess ran 2nd vs similar in only start – High % Jockey Tyler Gaffalione – Sharp 3F workout (Jan-12)
2 – Testimonial finished 3rd vs similar in last race -The trainer wins 20% with dirt starts
3- Jazla- finished 3rd in last race and received the highest last race speed rating – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Hot Trainer in last 14 days (5 2-0-0) – Sharp 3F workout (Jan-14)
6 – Honor That- The trainer wins 20% of the races when bringing a Beaten favorite back to race
Race 4
5 – Fifth Anniversary finished in the money three out of four during her career – Drops in class today – Trainer /Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (13 4-5-2) -Sharp 4F workout (Jan-15)
3 – Bali Del Sol – finished 3rd vs similar in last race and earned the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – Lasix added
1 – Baby’s Dialed In won her debut race at Gulfstream – Lasix added
2 – Li Li Bear has a High % trainer – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 28%: 1st timeL asix – May improve at the shorter distance
Race 5
10 – Lady Puchi switches to a high % jockey – Has the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Lasix added
4 – Pharoah’s Song – First time starter – Chad Brown Trains and Tyler Gaffalione is in the irons
9 – Lemon Red – Breeding suggests she will like the grass-Trained by Chad Brown
6 – Golden Effect – Switches to a high % winning jockey Paco Lopez -Trainer /Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-1)
Race 6
6 – Race Day Speed- Finished 3rd (on AW) in last race – She won seven out of eighteen races last year – May improve while returning to a sprint
5 – Tiz Possible Dear has the highest last race speed rating – May improve while returning to a sprint – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – May improve with Blinkers added today
4 – Celestial Cheetah should improve while returning to Dirt – The trainer wins 21% of the races in first race after being claim
3 – Papa’s Little Girl –finished 3rd in last race-Good workout on 26Nov’21 GP 3f ft :36.2 B 3/9
Race 7
2 – Flying Black – Won two races in a row and finished in the money seven out of the eight races, winning three races in 2021 – Trainer /Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (8 3-2-2)
4 – Current Situation won last race receiving the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 50% of the races when his entries are in an All – Weather surface – Sharp 3F workout (Jan-13)
8 – Isadorable Aida – Beaten only 1/2 length vs tougher (on Turf) in last start – drops in class today
1 – Odramark ran 2nd in last race High % winning Jockey Paco Lopez – The trainer wins 21% when going from Sprint-Sprint-Route
Race 8
3 – Mogalu won last race at Gulfstream Park on the Turf at today’s distance – High % winning trainer – The trainer wins 44% when entering a horse in its 2nd grass race – Lasix added
5 – Classicstateofmind won last race at Gulfstream Park and earned the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 35% with 1st start with a turn – Lasix added
7 – Lucci – Beaten only a length vs tougher in last start – He has the best turf speed among today’s starters – Drops in class today – Lasix added
1 – Pure Speight Won last race at Gulfstream Park – The trainer wins 25% trainer: 90+ days away – Lasix added
Race 9
9 – Bullet On Tap ran 2nd vs similar in last race and earned the highest last race speed rating (tie) – The trainer wins 35% with 1st start with a turn – Should improve at the shorter distance -Best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters – Lasix added
5 – R Girl’s Werth It ran 2nd at Gulfstream Park at today’s distance and received the highest last race speed rating (tie)- Switches to a winning Jockey Paco Lopez – Can improve at the shorter distance -May improve with Lasix & Blinkers added
2 – Devilly – Switches to a high % jockey – Can improve with Lasix added – Sharp 4F workout (Jan-15)
7 – Shootlikeagirl Dam has 6 winners from 7 starters and 3 stakes winners – Breeding suits today’s sprint distance – Trainer Mark Casse in last 14 days has this record (19 7-1-1) – Sharp 4F workout (Jan-13)
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile 70 Yards AW: 49 Races, 28 winners stks/closers, 5 w2w – PP: All posts play fair
1 – Tang – Top Pedigree, won debut with strong late move, well bet, 1st Lasix
2 – Peter D – winner of 4/5 – 3/3 at GP all on AW, has top Late Pace #s by a decent margin
5 – California Frolic – a head from winning three in a row, 4 SP Increases, 3/3 Drop of a win
4 – Sun Viking – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 3 SP Increases, L Saez top Distance Jockey
Race 2 – 1 1/16 Miles AW: 27 Races, 14 wins by speed, 6 w2w – PP: disadvantage 1-3, 4-7 top, 8+ Ok
4 – El Pecado – 10% win/50% ITM, 20 off or less w STP, 3 SP Increases, better fractions last out
6 – Crown of Honor – his best SP# on AW, best LP#s by a big, big margin, upgrade to Saez
5 – I Gen – 3 SP Increases, could be better in 2nd of bench, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
7 – Warn – Tom Carley Drop, MWS to MCL – 23% C Clement, Top Pedigree, Tyler G and CC win 5/10
Race 3 – 5 1/2 Furlongs D: 10 races, 9 wins by speed, 4 w2w – PP: 1-3 just 1 w, all other wins 4-7
3 – Jazla – big improvement from debut, cut fractions sharply, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
4 – Shawnee Princess – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, good work since, Top EP/LP combo by a lot
2 – Testimonial – 2nd after layoff more than a year, resume says 2nd will be better
1 – High Fair – better fractions in last, Top Pedigree
6 – Honor That – top EP with 4,7 – gets Saez wins sprints at 31.1% – only 49.5 ITM
Race 4 – 5 Furlongs AW: 28 Races, 18 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: all play fair
2 – Li Li Bear – early speed, gets Lasix, Saez and Saffie J, Jr +1.26 ROI, Top Pedigree, DROP 100-61
5 – Fifth Anniversary – 1st w/ Tr: Saffie, J Jr hits at 21%, 33% W w/ Jr Alvarado strong works, DROP 125-61
3 – Bali Del Sol – TLRSP, DROP 200-61, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, decent works
1 – Baby’s Dialed In – won debut by 1 ¾ Lengths, 1st Lasix
Race 5 – 1 Mile Turf: 36 Races, 23 won by speed, 10 w2w – PP: inside 3 have advantage over 4+
4 – Pharoahs Song – American Pharoah offspring have kicked but, turf is the Question, Tyler G #1 Turf
8 – Ultima Copa – Christophe Clement on Turf, Junior Alvarado
10 – Lady Puchi – 4 SP# Increases, 3rd off a layoff, TPLRSP, Drop 100-60, 20 off or less w STP
6 – Golden Effect – Paco on the Grass tied for most turf wins, strong win rate in routes
Race 6 – 7 Furlongs D: 16 Races, 12 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: Inside 3 and 8+
4 – Celestial Cheetah – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, won by 6 ¼ Lengths in lone GP Dirt run
5 – Tiz Possible Dear – only to DROP 80-54, TOP EP#S, won 5/8 @ Distance, 6/30 any other D, good work
3 – Papas Little Girl – a little faster 4f fractions in last, Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10
6 – Race Day Speed – 3/3 at 7 furlongs, 7 HQ starts in her last 10 races
Race 7 – 1 Mile 70 Yards AW: 49 Races, 28 winners stks/closers, 5 w2w – PP: All posts play fair
4 – Current Situation – 1/1 on GP AW with TLRSP, should be as good/better in round two off the bench
2 – Flying Black – 3 rd start off the bench, as good at #2, 2/2 @ Distance and AW, Top Pedigree, 3 SP up
1 – Odramark – 1st route after 23 races? Top Late Pace #s, Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10
7 – Playera – 1 for 1 on an Off Strack – AW?, DROP 61-34, one of the better EP/LP combos in the field
Race 8 – 5 Furlongs Turf: 21 Races, 12 winners speed, 8 w2w – PP: inside 3 and 8+
7 – Lucci – won debut as $1.25 at Belmont, 2 Ascot Perfect Power lost by 1,
5 – Classicstateofmind – w2w in his last, has EP and gets 1st Lasix, TLRSP
3 – Mogalu – is 3/4 length from being undefeated in 2, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 1st Lasix
1 – Pure Speight – Top Pedigree, nice improvement in races 2, some good works since last
Race 9 – 5 Furlongs AW: 28 Races, 18 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: all play fair
5 – R Girls Werth It – been well bet in both races, 1st Lasix, much better fractions last out, Top EP/LP
9 – Bullet On Tap – in race improvements from start to finish, 3rd off the bench, 3 SP Increases
2 – Devilly – 2nd off a layoff, some best fractions last, strong work 1-15, Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10
6 – Mandorla – Top Pedigree, tough vs SHOOTLIKEAGIRL, Emisael Jaramillo over Miguel Vasquez
