Horse Racing Picks, News and Opinions
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Full Card Picks: Turf Paradise
Terry’s Best Bet
Box It Up
Turf Paradise Hot Dog and on Prime Rib Pick 4s
Free Guaranteed Tip Sheet Picks: Delta Downs
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race #1
2 – Classy Class – Won the last two races he was entered in at today’s distance-One at TUP-Inside Post a plus
8 – You Buy I Fly V – Won three races in a row at today’s distance
1 – Capital Expense – Has two bullet works in a row-Likes the distance
7 – Squared Straight – Trying 870yds for the first time has plenty of speed – Won last race
9 – Polar – In from Southern California finished second two races in a row- (Use if there is a scratch)
Race #2
7 – North Fork – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race, drops in class today and the trainer wins 41% of the time when dropping entry down 2+ classes
2 – Sir Deputy – Won his last race at TUP earning the highest last race speed rating-His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
6 – Track Bound – Jockey in last 7 days has this record (12 4-1-0)-Can handle the distance
4 – Capper – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race- Has a high % winning Jockey
Race #3
7 – Jewel Azul – Steadied 1/16 in last race cost her the win- Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters
2 – Curious Inji – Won two of the last three races, but disqualified in last race-Likes track and distance
4 – Big Andy – Came in from Southern Calif. and won his last race at Turf Paradise easily
3 – Chewy Chewy Good – Won her last race at Turf Paradise earning the highest last race speed rating
Race #4
7 – Tapped to the Max – Won three out of his last four races-High % trainer, high % Jockey, good works
2 – Moonlite Graham – Finished in the money ten out of ten races this year, winning three
5 – Mister McLean – Finished third in the last two races at Turf Paradise- trainer wins 34% of the time: 1st race after claim
1 – Hotfoot – Won two out of the last three races- Hot Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (4 2-1-1)
Race #5
2 – Ax Man – (SCRATCHED) Comes in from Southern Cal and is the class of the race-best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Hard to Deny – Won her last race at a mile at Turf Paradise-Earned an 87-speed rating
6 – Pintxos – Won two out of the last three races at Turf Paradise at today’s distance
5 – Arizona Moon – Trouble last race and still finished third-Can either lead or come from behind
Race #6
2 – Rideo – Comes to Turf Paradise after winning his last race at GGF- High % Jonathan Wong Trains
3 – Shinny – won his last ten races in a row-Can either lead or come from behind
6 – Thirty Seconds Out – Finished second in his last two races-Performs well on the Turf
5 – Corruze – Has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters
Race #7
4 – Sharmel – Ran second in her first race after being off since Sept. and earned the highest last race speed rating-Trained by Robertino Diodoro who is winning at a 37% clip
8 – Fictional – Won two races back and just missed by a length after experiencing trouble in his last race
1 – Kissable U – Will improve while returning to dirt where his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
6 – Linda’s Ballet – has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the trainer wins 25% of the races when dropping an entry down 2+ classes
Race #8
9 – Bibleman – The trainer wins 48% of the time when he Claims a horse and drops in class -Shortening to 5-1/2 furlongs will help and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
1 – Got Even Smarter – Finished in the money five out of the last six races this year
6 – Unbridled’s Skye – Arrived from GGF and won his first race at TUP by 6-3/4 lengths
7 – Crooked Finger Ray – Moving back to 5-1/2 furlongs where he does well and drops in class today
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – QH Race -always a guess for me
2 – Classy Class
7 – Squared Straight
4 – Highwire Dance
1 – Capital Expense
Race 2 – 6.5 Furlongs – 34 races, 25 won by speed, 12 w2w – rail underperforms, rest are fair
7 – North Fork (Best Bet) – down in class, much better fractions in last, down 2 classes, 5/12 trainer Ed Kereluk
4 – Capper – well bet last out, big up in late pace #s in last, race probably didn’t take much out of him
3 – Blues Rapper – 1st off the claim, 25% winner for Tr Justin Evans, JT ITM 6/6 3/6 wins
1 – Autism Savant – dropping in class, same fractions despite adding 1 ½ furlongs
Race 3 – 1 Mile (Turf) – 23 races, 15 won by speed, 4 w2w – inside 3 and 8+
2 – Curious Inji – much better on than dirt, strong 2f and 4f pace improvement in last
4 – Big Andy – big win in Tup debut on dirt, EZ win with strong late pace move L Wade/Robertino 39% W
3 – Chewy Chewy Good – 1st after claim, 38% angle for trainer Jose Silva, Jr. 4 SP# increases
7 – Jewel Azul – 3rd off layoff was best in last 3 race cycle, best in race pace numbers in last 10 starts
Race 4 – 5 Furlongs – 15 races, 13 won by speed, 5 w2w – posts 2,3 and 8+
7 – Tapped to the Max – is 1 ¾ lengths from three wins in a row. Has four wins in 9 @Distance, 1/6 else
2 – Moonlite Graham – 3rd off the break, last 3rd best of 3 in last 3 race cycle, 100% ITM at TP
1 – Hotfoot – missed as the fave, Trainer rebounds at 33%, J/T 6/6 ITM 3/6 Ws
6 – Bedrock – TLRSP #, down in class, stronger fraction in last
Race 5 – 1 Mile – 55 races, 40 won by speed, 12 w2w – posts play fair
5 – Arizona Moon – most consistent SP#s, strong late pace, ITM 12/19 at TP
4 – Hard to Deny – tied for TLRSP#, 3 Ws in 5 @ distance, 1 in 12 at other lengths
3 – Black Ops – tied for TLRSP# on grass, #s not as good on dirt, strong mid-pace #s
6 – Pintxos– 4th after a layoff, last time 4th race in cycle was the best
Race 6 – 1 Mile (Turf) – 23 races, 15 won by speed, 4 w2w – inside 3 and 8+
2 – Rideo – 6/10 @ distance, 3rd off the bench, much better fractions in last
3 – Shinny – won 10 in a row, won 3/4 at TP, 5/6 at distance, easy win last, dropping in class – odd
6 – Thirty Seconds Out – maintenance work since last, 6 SP# increases, should be close to pace
4 – Themanbehindtheman – top pedigree for turf, should be closing,
Race 7 – 6.5 Furlongs – 34 races, 25 won by speed, 12 w2w – rail underperforms, rest are fair
4 – Sharmel – suspicious drop off the claim, Diodoro hits at 36%, should be better in 2nd off claim
8 – Fictional – better fractions in last, W/P/S in 3 at TP, 3 SP# increases
7 – Trans Mississippi – 3rd off the break, some better fractions last out
2 – A Card Short – missed by 19 lengths last out, followed last bomb with win, should be part of pace
Race 8 – 5.5 Furlongs – 33 races, 29 won by speed, 13 w2w – posts 2&3 and all else is fair
7 – Crooked Finger Ray – J/T hit at 32%, 4th of bench, 4 race was best by far in last 4-race cycle
2 – Raofthesun – top LRSP#, better fractions last out, down in class
9 – Bibleman – 2nd off the claim, 48% angle for trainer Justin Evans, but 0-2 at TP
3 – King Parker – 8/13 of at distance, 4/6 at TP, strong pace #s in last, better in round 2 off sidelines
